(04-18-2017 09:44 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 09:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 09:17 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 09:04 AM)stever20 Wrote:  big red flag for Hernandez is his homer rate......
2014 0.61 hr/9
2015 1.03 hr/9
2016 1.12 hr/9
2017 1.47 hr/9

if that continues, he's going to get hurt big time.

Yes, that is very much trending in the wrong direction. BUT his 2016 BB/9 was 3.82. Combined with the high HR rate and lack of K's, he was obviously doomed. The consequences of a higher HR rate can be mitigated somewhat by a much better BB rate. You can afford to give up too many HR if you limit walks

Right. But lets think about it. Which trend more likely to continue? Him not walking anyone- which flies in the face of a 2.5 career bb/9 rate even prior to last year or continuing to give up homers? I think the safe money is that he's going to continue to give up homers. Maybe not to the level he has this year so far- but still quite a few. Tough to see him turning into the Eck or Kershaw and never walking anyone.

Having said that- seems like he could get back to a 3-4 WAR guy depending on the source you're looking at. Key for him health of course.

oh of course not. His BB rate won't be anywhere near 0.00. But he's gone 18 innings without allowing a walk and those innings count. If he can end the season around 2.25 BB/9 and keep the HR rate where it is now, he could end up with a solid season. I'm sure the Mariners would take 195 innings with a 3.50 ERA

If he's got a 2.25 bb/9 rate and his hr rate is where it is now- assuming 200 innings, the rest of the way he'd have 50 walks in the last 182 innings- or 2.47/9. Keeping that with the current HR rate- and pretty much impossible to have a 3.50 ERA(esp given right now he's got a 2.95 ERA with no walks).

he's only had 3 years in his career with less than a 2.5 bb/9 ratio.