(05-12-2013 10:44 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-12-2013 09:52 PM)Indiana Bones Wrote:  ECU already has one of the best game day experiences in the nation. I've brought my friends that graduated from Alabama, Texas and FSU & all of them have walked away thoroughly impressed.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zFAZ5WJjTJ0

If ECU was in the SEC then selling 80,000 tickets would be a piece of cake.

There is one scenario in which I think the Pirates could have a realistic chance, but much has to happen for this to come about.

1. The Big 12 expands and Texas expresses total commitment to keeping the Big 12 viable and to show that intent they agree to morph the LHN into a Big 12 network that will profit all of the schools of the conference.

2. The ACC has already taken their necessary step with their GOR.

3. The Big 10, SEC, and ACC grow very weary of scheduling 14. Truly 16 is much easier and lends itself to more money by extending the conference championship from one game to two and from two teams to four.

At this point the SEC will be looking for the best possible additions to get to 16. Their reasonable candidates would be South Florida, East Carolina, Cincinnati, and possibly Southern Methodist. This would be the breakdown on those options:

1. South Florida averages over 50 k at their home games and have made great strides in both their academic ratings and in their research spending. The Bulls offer access to a part of the state of Florida that has heretofore been relatively unexploited by most SEC teams. The mid-Gulf Coast will become in a decade or so what Miami once was in the 60's and 70's. As the culture of Miami shifts Central Florida and South Florida will both move way up. While they don't add a market there is much to the upside of this program.

2. East Carolina is a football first school in a state that would add market share to the SEC. While they don't carry the state they average enough in attendance to merit, as you have pointed out, the good chance to draw 80 k. With SEC money they could both enhance their academics and their facilities and could easily overtake N.C. State as a destination of choice for recruits in state. The Pirates have historically produced good athletic programs and could easily compete at the mid-level in sports in the SEC in a relatively short period of adjustment. (Plus Pat Dye came to Auburn from East Carolina).

3. Cincinnati would bring both competitive basketball and football to the SEC and deliver an interesting new market. While from Ohio they are at least as Southern in culture as Louisville. With SEC money the Bearcats would be elevated across the board in athletics in short order and could surpass Ohio as the #2 program in their state. While the idea may be a stretch for many SEC folks in a college football world where ACC and Big 12 targets are off the board Cincinnati would likely be the best first choice.

4. Southern Methodist delivers Houston. They have a 1.1 billion dollar athletic endowment and membership in the SEC would certainly help them to recruit well. The main drawbacks here are in their average attendance which is below 40,000 and in their overall competitiveness in all sports.

Of the remaining choices Tulane left the SEC and I doubt even with much better numbers that they would be considered and three teams from Tennessee is too many so Memphis would not really get a look either. Southern Miss would be deserving but two Mississippi teams would preclude that move and La Tech doesn't have the facilities or crowds. As far as Central Florida is concerned they are more commuter based than USF and that would not work in the Knights favor although they are a promising team. And, while Old Dominion is on the upswing it will be a couple of decades before they could get a serious look. And Tulsa while good is way too small in a state that's too small to consider a private school that small.

If I had to rate the prospects they would be 1. Cincinnati, 2. East Carolina by a hair, 3. South Florida and 4. S.M.U.

But understand that this would only apply in a world where the Big 12 has expanded and bolstered the revenue sharing of their conference. If they don't expand and don't address the economic disparity then I believe future SEC growth will come from there.

Good points but I would differ in opinion on the ratings. 1. East Carolina, 2. SMU, 3. Cincinnati and then a distant 4. South Florida.

1. East Carolina: The SEC really wants in North Carolina, Slive "loves being in North Carolina". If a scenario happens like you portrayed in your post then I don't see how ECU is not the top prospect that the SEC will look at when it comes to Project schools. They have a stadium that fills every game at 55k. It is a stadium built for continuing expansion. They could easily expand it if they knew they were going to be in the SEC. Cincy cant expand their stadium and they would have to play in a pro stadium instead of an on campus stadium. South Florida has the same issue.


2. SMU may have a small stadium now but it is expandable and when it comes to Pro Stadiums, SEC teams actually like scheduling games in the Pro Stadium of the City that SMU is in. They may not be all that great at other sports either but if it comes to expansion in this scenario then it will be COMPLETELY about markets and football. SMU can slowly build the rest with the huge influx of cash that they will be getting from the SEC and from their own boosters that will be extremely excited about SMU football going into the future. SMU and A&M seem to have pretty good relations, they might be the one Texas school that A&M would support for the SEC.

3. Cincy has a major stadium problem and that is a big deal for the SEC. If the SEC is going to try to break into Ohio with Cincy then they would need a Big Show in order to compete with what goes on at The Horseshoe. 33K people watching isnt going to cut it and Cincy really cant expand that. Games in Pro Stadiums for the entire season isn't going to cut it either as the SEC culture is all about the On Campus experience of Game Day. Am I wrong?

4. South Florida? Pro Stadium, Fourth best program in the State and that could actually weaken the perception of the SEC in the State if the ACC had the 2nd and 3rd and the SEC had the 1st and 4th. That is pretty equal where as right now 2nd and 3rd does not equal 1st when it comes to perception. People think of Florida as an SEC state right now. If they took the distant fourth best program in the State then I think the perception across the country could actually change and not for the better in regards to the SEC's position in that vital State that many other SEC programs heavily recruit.

I don't personally see how Cincy and South Florida match up with ECU and SMU.