(03-26-2017 09:24 AM)Gibson Tiger Wrote:  I think once the Big XII GOR runs out OU and UT will join the PAC 12.The question is do they go alone or carry 2 others with them.If they take OSU and TT,just as an example,TCU,Baylor,Iowa St and Kansas St could have some serious questions about their future.I see Kansas going to the B1G if my scenario plays out.This is based on how the Big XII expansion cluster* played out.If Texas-Oklahoma wanted a long term Big XII why not add 2 schools now?This doesn't impact the SEC unless they take Kansas-Kansas State.

The average total revenue of a PAC school is 89 million a year. The average total revenue of a Big 12 school now is 92 million a year. The Big 10 averages 108 million per school and the SEC averages 121 million per school (the ACC averages 87 million in spite of all their fan boy claims).

Texas makes the most of any school at nearly 180 million per year. Oklahoma makes nearly 140 million. The present Big 12 TV contract pays out 36 million a year. The present PAC TV contract pays 21 million a year.

I don't think Oklahoma and Texas are going to shoot themselves in the foot and move to a conference where their TV revenue is going to drop by 15 million dollars! They could make 3 million more by moving to the Big 10. They would earn 6 million more by moving to the SEC.

Let's say that the TV contracts will be for 10 years. Oklahoma and Texas would lose 150 million dollars in a 10 year contract with the PAC as things stand now. They would lose 80 million moving to the ACC (their TV contract is better than the PAC). They would earn 30 million by moving to the Big 10 and 60 million by moving to the SEC.

In short they aren't moving to the PAC or ACC. If they move it will be either to the Big 10 or SEC, or not at all. Since ESPN has Texas contracted individually until 2031 Texas won't be able to move to a FOX held conference like the Big 10 for a long time.

Now you could argue that the value of the PAC would go up with UT & OU. It would but not nearly as much as the value of the Big 10 or SEC would rise if those two content multipliers joined either of those conferences. How do you calculate that? Viewer numbers x the viewer numbers of the schools they would play. The PAC has the lowest viewer participation numbers of every conference but the ACC. The SEC has the highest viewer participation numbers of any conference and the highest saturation numbers (% of households viewing versus population). Advertisers love that. It raises the payout to the parent network which in turn raises the contract value. The PAC is next to last in saturation numbers (ACC is last). The Big 12 is second in saturation numbers and third in viewer participation numbers. The Big 10 is third in saturation numbers and second in participation numbers.

So even in some concocted scenario the numbers and money simply aren't there to support your hypothesis. It's not about what would be nice, what would give the remaining conferences equal numbers or what would be ideal. It's about money because college sports is a business.

Then calculate distances for competition of all sports because travel costs money. Again the choices are 1. SEC, 2. Big 10, 3. ACC, 4. PAC.

Texas has chosen so far to do nothing. The ACC and PAC are not viable options for them. Their fans would despise the travel to the Big 10 and the SEC with Aggie is not where they want to head. That's why the Big 12 exists still.