I really think some of the UNT and FIU Alliance hopefuls miss the point.

When it comes to UNT and the Alliance, I get wanting to be with Tulsa and Rice. Those names hold some value, selling a change in connection with a new coach and a new stadium makes sense.

With FIU, the Alliance offers no high value names that are going to send fans flocking in. What does provide is an opportunity to differentiate the program from FAU.

But none of that means the Alliance will be more stable. I think there are many reasons to believe the Alliance will be collapse prone. It is a complete mess, an idea hatched first to get a BCS AQ, that ship has sailed. Then it was about a mega TV deal that would make it a viable alternative to the Big East, with the departures of Houston, SMU, Boise, San Diego, UCF, and Memphis, that ship has sunk. Now the whole TV thing is still being touted but it is simply ridiculous to believe that a 16-24 team mess will produce the sort of per team dollars that CUSA and MWC produced when Houston, SMU, Boise, San Diego, UCF, and Memphis were members. That won't happen.

Now its a goofy mess that really has one true reason to exist. The schools in the Mountain, Pacific and Hawaiian time zones have run out of new member material. Counting UTEP there are only 13 FBS schools not in the Pac-12, Big East or committed to independence. The western schools need the Alliance to avoid being forced to call upon Idaho or New Mexico State to survive or heading into the Central time zone. CUSA since its inception in 1995 has lost 12 members (8 football playing, 11 basketball). Their brand is shot to hell outside Sun Belt and eastern WAC cities where there is still interest in participation. This deal is about creating a new brand and new start.

The Alliance won't last. Eventually it will collapse and when that happens the Sun Belt will be gone as well as new eastern and western leagues emerge to occupy the space once occupied by the MWC/WAC and Sun Belt/CUSA.