(11-13-2017 07:20 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  The most likely scenario is that the second weakest conference (Pac 12) raids the weakest (Big 12). It will be like the whole SWC split all over again.
My guess is that the Texahoma four will go to the new Pac-16. I do not believe that the other power conferences will be in a rush to expand for a lot of reasons so the Kansas/UConn to Big 10 move probably wouldn't happen for a while. Kansas sucking at football is going to catch up to them.

Who would the Big 12 reload with?
Probably UConn, Cincy, Houston, and SMU. I don't see them going to 12 because I believe adding six G5 schools instead of four hurts the diminished brand more. The Big12 would no longer be a power conference but more of a true tweeter conference so BYU will thumb its nose at it.
UCF and USF are directionals so I don't think Kansas (the kingpin of the conference) would be too excited to add them.

I am one of the few that thinks the Big12 probably is going to survive as is.

If its between staying in the Big12 or going to the Pac12---I think UT stays put. In fact, I think the Big12 has a better than 50-50 chance of remaining whole. Does UT really want to put its athletes at at 2 time zone disadvatage? Does UT really want 9:30 PM starts for football and basketball? Does UT really want to become an afterthought for 2/3 of the population? Oh, and is the only college football team with its own TV network willing to give up the LHN to get those late night starts and distant travel?

Im not seeing it. I can see UT in the Big10---but does UT they want top play in the snow? Do they want to trade Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Baylor, Oklahoma St for Michigan and Purdue? At least in the Big10, giving up the Longhorn Network is offset by even more revenue. So, I think this is the most likely destination if UT leaves the Big12

I dont think UT would defect to the SEC--but I do think UT fans would like it if they did. UT vs Aggie returns. Those SEC games be very interesting for fans and the climate and travel are both reasonable. But...UT would have to give up the LHN and they wouldnt get any real offset in return as far as revenue goes. The ACC would be ok--less interesting schedule than the SEC---though the travel is further than the SEC (but better than the Pac12). Again, the ACC doesnt offer much of a revenue offset for the loss of the LHN.

So, when you really think about it, the Big12 is a pretty good home for UT. Now if Oklahoma leaves....well, that might change things. But I dont think Oklahoma leaves the Big12 if UT is committed to staying in the Big12.

I guess we will see how it turns out in 7 years or so.