(01-31-2017 05:21 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(01-30-2017 07:41 PM)Wadszip Wrote:  

(01-30-2017 03:07 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourna...onference/

This site does the predictions of seeds and bids per conference. Right now we sit at 1.3 bids.

Akron at 24-7 is believed to have a 25% shot at an at large. With 4 losses to give, I could see them at least getting mentioned if they keep winning. Having one of the 19 or 20 win MAC teams knocking them off in the championship game would help. Losing to Creighton and Gonzaga are not bad losses. Youngstown State however is... but it was the first game of the season??? If they can muscle up to .500, and Akron doesn't drop one to a bottom dweller... They will be a midmajor name to speak of in a month or so.

If you click on Akron it has their odds to make they tourney via win total:
24 wins = 3.2%
25 wins = 18.2%
26 wins = 50.9%
27 wins = 80.5%
28 wins = 95.9%
29 wins = 99.6%
30+ wins = 100%

31 wins means Akron wins out and wins the tourney. With 1 loss in the title game it believes Akron still has a 100% chance to get in. If Akron wins 29 but loses in the semi's it believes Akron is basically in. They can MAYBE lose a regular season game or two and PROBABLY get in if they lose in the championship game at 27-6.

The win total and percentage is allowing you to lose games but still possibly still means you win the conference tourney. For Example Toledo has a 72% shot if they get to 23 wins because it's assuming that one loss the rest of the way means it won't come in the MAC tourney. At 24 wins we have a 100% shot because it means that Toledo won out and won the MAC. The 23 win total in no way indicates we have a 72% chance of an at large if that loss came in the MACC game.

I do like the different amounts of information teamrankings.com provides. But I'm not going to put any stock in those odds. Last year, IIR, they had Akron as having well over a 50 percent chance of getting an at-large bid entering the MAC tournament last year. I think even when they lost to Buffalo, it was still around 50 percent. Akron, as it turned out, wasn't even on the committee's radar.

That team was 26-8 and had an overall better resume than what a 26-8 team would have this year.

This isn't using any sort of analytical formula, but I would guess the odds would be more like this:

24 wins: 0%
25 wins: 0%
26 wins: 0%
27 wins: 10%
28 wins: 25%
29 wins: 50%
30 wins: 90%

In short, yes, Akron still has at-large hopes. But they would have to go 17-1 in MAC play and then lose in the MAC title game even to be a true toss-up. And would need to win out until the MAC title game to feel pretty confident. So, it's still extremely unlikely.

That site uses statistical analysis on history while also predicting the rest of the season. The site states that it believes Akron will only go 24-7... but if the rest of the predictions hold true and very fair... Its odds of making the tourney at 28-6 are 95.9%. That does not mean its odds of an At Large are as so. Its more so assuming that they went 15-3 in the league and won the MAC. Its At Large odds are probably closer to 50-50 at 28 wins... So 16-2 and a loss in the title game.

Which means in a pool of 8 teams with Oklahoma State, Michigan, Rhode Island, Wichita State, Seton Hall, Wake Forest, and Cal (8 bubble teams)... how would they fair?

For a snapshot Akron has a BPI of 75, SOR (strength of record) of 39, and RPI of 47. That would increase from now to then more than every team remaining BECAUSE they have an easier road and will continue to win games.

My prediction is they are last four OUT (Toss up) if they go 28-6 and lose in the title game. 29-5 and a loss in the title game is IN by 4 to 8 teams. So as far as losing games remaining for an AT-LARGE? Don't go worse than 16-2 in the league, must lose in the finals, and don't lose to a 7 seed or worse.

I think we're on the same page, though the first post is the one that threw me off since you said that teamrankings still would have Akron as a 25 percent chance as an at-large at 24 wins.

That's where I was saying those odds are off. And re-looking at your post, I think you meant to say at 24 wins Akron had a 25 percent chance of making it ... not a 25 percent as an at-large (since the at-large numbers you posted only have Akron at a 3.2 percent as an at-large at 24 wins).

Anyway, I agree with your second post. Though at 28 wins and not winning the title, I still it's more likely than not Akron misses, not quite 50-50, but they would be in that last four out group at worst.

Obviously, that means I think 29 is the number Akron would need to to have a legit shot.