Defensively, GSU has the ability to make this a game. Other than Clemson, this may be the toughest defense Troy has seen. When Troy gets out of a rhythm, it's very tough to get it back. GSU poses a serious threat in that regard.

GSU's defense is very similar to ours in that it's predicated on deception and confusing the quarterback with what I think is called a "rover". One or two guys up front constantly switching positions before the ball is snapped. If Troy's not ready for it, it could be a tough night.

I do think our defense will keep the score down though. Texas State has the worst defense in the country, so playing what is clearly the SBC's best defense and one of the best in the nation at Troy will be a big challenge for state.

One other major difference from last week to this week is the difference at the line of scrimmage. Troy's given up a league and national best 1 sack all year, where Texas State has already given up 20. We have the league's best rushing offense, more than doubling Texas State's production.

All in all, I don't think Troy beats the spread. This will be a tough hard fought game, but I think Troy pulls out a close one.