(08-20-2016 02:34 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  His speech this past week and the trip to LA were home runs. Kind of thing people who hate Hillary have been waiting on.

(08-20-2016 02:34 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  His speech this past week and the trip to LA were home runs. Kind of thing people who hate Hillary have been waiting on.

(08-20-2016 02:12 PM)OrangeCrush22 Wrote:  He's also leading by +1 in an LA Times poll. He will "mysteriously" tank again. It happens each time he gets close and overtakes her in the polls.

(08-20-2016 09:21 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  The LA Times poll is a bizzare one. Even they admit the poll is a strange one. Basically, the poll asks voters to assign their likllihood of supporting a candidate from 0-100 and then weights the responses according to those weights. So, if 10 Trump supporters say they are 100% likely to vote, and 12 Clinton supporters say they're 80% likely to vote, then Trump is ahead. Where this type of poll breaks down is that just because while's HRC's support is softer than DJT's, its still solid. And it also doesn't take into account is the massive (and it will be) advantage in organization that HRC will have. On the first day of early voting, for example, I will receive at least 10 phone calls reminding me to vote. Not robocalls, but actual people calling. And once I say I've voted, they'll stop calling and move on to the next group until a couple of days before the election, when I'll get those calls again confirming that I voted. And if they do that in a non-swing state, I would shudder to think how hard their going to work the vote in the swing states.

We shall see if the USDW poll is confirmed by any other polling groups. Reuters came out with a Clinton +8 poll on Friday. My first thought is that the USDW poll is click bait. They don't seem to have any history on this. It appears that USDW doesn't release its polling methodology.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN10U1YI

I'm not terribly worried about the LA Times poll (although obviously, it would be great if it were better) or some poll by a new organization with a hidden methodology.

(08-20-2016 09:45 PM)tigertom Wrote:  

(08-20-2016 09:21 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  The LA Times poll is a bizzare one. Even they admit the poll is a strange one. Basically, the poll asks voters to assign their likllihood of supporting a candidate from 0-100 and then weights the responses according to those weights. So, if 10 Trump supporters say they are 100% likely to vote, and 12 Clinton supporters say they're 80% likely to vote, then Trump is ahead. Where this type of poll breaks down is that just because while's HRC's support is softer than DJT's, its still solid. And it also doesn't take into account is the massive (and it will be) advantage in organization that HRC will have. On the first day of early voting, for example, I will receive at least 10 phone calls reminding me to vote. Not robocalls, but actual people calling. And once I say I've voted, they'll stop calling and move on to the next group until a couple of days before the election, when I'll get those calls again confirming that I voted. And if they do that in a non-swing state, I would shudder to think how hard their going to work the vote in the swing states.

We shall see if the USDW poll is confirmed by any other polling groups. Reuters came out with a Clinton +8 poll on Friday. My first thought is that the USDW poll is click bait. They don't seem to have any history on this. It appears that USDW doesn't release its polling methodology.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN10U1YI

I'm not terribly worried about the LA Times poll (although obviously, it would be great if it were better) or some poll by a new organization with a hidden methodology.

Dream on.... his is just the beginning of a tidal wave of support

(08-20-2016 03:02 PM)green Wrote:  

(08-20-2016 02:34 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  His speech this past week and the trip to LA were home runs. Kind of thing people who hate Hillary have been waiting on.

We've never seen bias worse than @CNN now. Not a single mention of Trump visiting #LouisianaFlood victims yesterday.
-- @RepStevenSmith

CONFIRMATION BIAS

(08-20-2016 10:15 PM)58-56 Wrote:  

(08-20-2016 03:02 PM)green Wrote:  

(08-20-2016 02:34 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  His speech this past week and the trip to LA were home runs. Kind of thing people who hate Hillary have been waiting on.

We've never seen bias worse than @CNN now. Not a single mention of Trump visiting #LouisianaFlood victims yesterday.
-- @RepStevenSmith

CONFIRMATION BIAS

Good God, that guy second from the right has a face made for radio.

(08-20-2016 03:02 PM)green Wrote:  

(08-20-2016 02:34 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  His speech this past week and the trip to LA were home runs. Kind of thing people who hate Hillary have been waiting on.

We've never seen bias worse than @CNN now. Not a single mention of Trump visiting #LouisianaFlood victims yesterday.
-- @RepStevenSmith

CONFIRMATION BIAS

(08-21-2016 07:08 AM)dawgitall Wrote:  Sure Trump could still win. But anyone that thinks that at this point he is ahead in legitimate polling isn't paying attention.

(08-21-2016 07:08 AM)dawgitall Wrote:  Sure Trump could still win. But anyone that thinks that at this point he is ahead in legitimate polling isn't paying attention.