Watching NMSU today even though they are 2-4, I believe they will be a bowl team.

After six weeks who goes bowling from the SBC?

Looking at schedules it may be tough filling all five spots if NMSU doesn't.

Troy for sure.
App and ULM in all likelihood.
Ark. State, NMSU, and maybe one other.

Troy
App State
stAte

ULM
NMSU

Idaho maybe

After watching Rogers throw 6 interceptions you came to that conclusion? They are at 4 losses and have shown that they can't pull through when the game gets tight. I suspect 3 more close losses are possible.

Don't look now, but Georgia State is sitting at 2-2 which is right where you want to be when transitioning to a new coach as a program in build mode. They could sneak in.

(10-07-2017 10:23 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  Troy for sure.
App and ULM in all likelihood.
Ark. State, NMSU, and maybe one other.

ULM isn't a sure thing. They only have 3 wins, and still have to play Auburn, App, and AState. If they don't win one of those 3, they will have to beat all 3 of Georgia State, South Alabama, Idaho to get to 6 wins.

I think they can do it, but winning at South and Idaho isn't easy.

Only 3 we basically know for sure are Troy, App and stAte... 99% probability these three are bowling.

Looking at what teams need:

Troy is a lock
App is a virtual lock. They need 3 and will be favored in every game the rest of the way.
AState is in good shape, but because they won't make up Miami, still need 4 more league wins, so not a lock yet. Will be favored in every game except Troy rest of way. Probably a pickem at NMSU

Now the questions:

ULM: Needs Three from vs GSU, @ USA, @ Idaho, vs App, @ Auburn, vs AState. One would think the Warhawks will get there, but with the defense struggling and a difficult close to the season, they don't want it to come down to their ability to beat App or AState late.

NMSU: Needs 4 from @ GS, vs AState, @ TXSt, @ ULL, vs Idaho, vs USA. Given the remaining schedule, the Aggies should be okay to get to 6 wins, but they absolutely cannot afford to slip up against the supposedly sure wins in GS/TXST.

Idaho: Need 4: That loss to ULL really hurt. With both Troy and App left on the schedule plus a trip to Missouri, the Vandals now either must beat one of those three teams, or win out against a difficult schedule that includes @ NMSU, and vs ULM. Right now, I don't think they get there.

ULL: Need 4: Cajuns put themselves back in the hunt this week, but with 4 road trips left (Including @ Ole Miss) they will have to hold serve at home with TXST, NMSU, GS and then upset one of AState, USA, OM, or App on the road. I don't think they get there yet, but they still have a chance.

I have my doubts about Idaho. The defense is fine, and I realize that Linehan is supposed to be the cream of the crop in the conference at QB. But if you've played 5 games and your offense hasn't played particularly well in any of them, it might be time to accept the idea that you don't have a very good offense.

(10-07-2017 10:41 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  After watching Rogers throw 6 interceptions you came to that conclusion? They are at 4 losses and have shown that they can't pull through when the game gets tight. I suspect 3 more close losses are possible.

If you are predicting they won't get six wins I'm even more confident they can.

Obviously Troy, App, and stAte seem like pretty safe bets right now.

A few more probably get to 6 wins. ULM is interesting, they're sitting at 3-2 and their offense certainly looks legit. Their remaining schedule isn't exactly favorable though. Their next three are all winnable: vs GaSt, @USA, @Idaho. They probably need to get AT LEAST two of those if they want a chance to go bowling, because they close with App, Auburn, and stAte. Luckily they get App and stAte at home, so they probably have a decent shot to win at least one of those. I think it's essential they take at least two from their next three though. And even just two of them means they're gonna have to beat App or stAte.

I COULD see Lafayette getting to 6, but they'll have to be damn near flawless considering they already have 3 losses and still have to go to stAte, Ole Miss and App.

Idaho (2-3) still goes to Missouri, plays App at home, goes to Troy, goes to NM State, and plays ULM at home. Similar to Lafayette they have a chance, but it sure won't be easy. Their loss yesterday really hurts their chances imo.

Despite being 2-4, I still think NMSU is gonna get to 6 wins and they'll find themselves in the Arizona bowl. Their hardest game from here on out is stAte at home. If they remain motivated and don't let some of their tough losses crumble them, I think they will get to 6 wins. While it's tough to gauge if App is even real good this year, they clearly outplayed us in Boone yesterday. They just turned it over a ridiculous amount of times and our offensive line finally got the better of them late. I like the Aggies to get to 6 wins.

Georgia State is all of a sudden at 2-2 with winnable games remaining. They get SoBama at home, @GaSouthern, @Texas State, and Idaho at home. Do I think they win all 4 of these? No. But they are all WINNABLE games. They are still alive.

I guess I'll predict Troy, App, NMSU, and ULM right now. But a lot of teams are still in play.

Great post Fidel and I thoroughly agree. As good as I think ULM is, I think we have a tough road. I think we can and will do it, but unfortunately we could be a top 4 SBC team sitting at home. One other interesting thing is we can still schedule a 12th game if need be. Unfortunately, that rescheduled game most likely will be FSU on December 2nd. At that point though if we ever had a chance to beat them it would be with a hungry young team that is hopefully peaking and having one last shot at a bowl. Also, FSU isn’t as good as everyone thought at the beginning of the year after losing their QB.

Team Rankings Bowl Eligible Probability for Sun Belt
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/projections/standings/

100% Troy
99.7% APP
88.9% stAte
66.1% NMSU

49.7% ULM
38.0% GSU
22.9% ULL
15.9% Idaho

8.5% USA
5.8% GS
0.1% TXST
0.0% Coastal

(10-07-2017 10:47 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(10-07-2017 10:23 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  Troy for sure.
App and ULM in all likelihood.
Ark. State, NMSU, and maybe one other.

ULM isn't a sure thing. They only have 3 wins, and still have to play Auburn, App, and AState. If they don't win one of those 3, they will have to beat all 3 of Georgia State, South Alabama, Idaho to get to 6 wins.

I think they can do it, but winning at South and Idaho isn't easy.

South will be 1-5 ready to throw in the towel on JJ. Idaho will be 2-5 and they’re not the same team they were last year. If ULL can beat Idaho there so can ULM. You’re right it’s not a sure thing but it’s pretty realistic that we get those 6 wins next 3 games.

(10-08-2017 10:43 AM)Golota Wrote:  

(10-07-2017 10:47 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(10-07-2017 10:23 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  Troy for sure.
App and ULM in all likelihood.
Ark. State, NMSU, and maybe one other.

ULM isn't a sure thing. They only have 3 wins, and still have to play Auburn, App, and AState. If they don't win one of those 3, they will have to beat all 3 of Georgia State, South Alabama, Idaho to get to 6 wins.

I think they can do it, but winning at South and Idaho isn't easy.

South will be 1-5 ready to throw in the towel on JJ. Idaho will be 2-5 and they’re not the same team they were last year. If ULL can beat Idaho there so can ULM. You’re right it’s not a sure thing but it’s pretty realistic that we get those 6 wins next 3 games.

I'm not saying it's unrealistic. What I'm saying is that you close the year with Auburn and App and stAte teams who rarely lose league games. And that's not counting that you guys haven't beaten stAte since 2009.

While I think it's very likely you win all those games. They are not gimme's. (Especially a Georgia State team that is pretty good defensively) Lose even one of those games and now you have to be able to knock off App or stAte.

(10-08-2017 12:36 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(10-08-2017 10:43 AM)Golota Wrote:  

(10-07-2017 10:47 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(10-07-2017 10:23 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  Troy for sure.
App and ULM in all likelihood.
Ark. State, NMSU, and maybe one other.

ULM isn't a sure thing. They only have 3 wins, and still have to play Auburn, App, and AState. If they don't win one of those 3, they will have to beat all 3 of Georgia State, South Alabama, Idaho to get to 6 wins.

I think they can do it, but winning at South and Idaho isn't easy.

South will be 1-5 ready to throw in the towel on JJ. Idaho will be 2-5 and they’re not the same team they were last year. If ULL can beat Idaho there so can ULM. You’re right it’s not a sure thing but it’s pretty realistic that we get those 6 wins next 3 games.

I'm not saying it's unrealistic. What I'm saying is that you close the year with Auburn and App and stAte teams who rarely lose league games. And that's not counting that you guys haven't beaten stAte since 2009.

While I think it's very likely you win all those games. They are not gimme's. (Especially a Georgia State team that is pretty good defensively) Lose even one of those games and now you have to be able to knock off App or stAte.

I am with you on that. It’s going to be tough but we have to try and get next 3 games . Last 3 are going to be tough.
Yeah Georgia State D playing decent but Texas State defense was playing good too and we wrecked shop. Caleb Evans will keep progressing and expecting a good game from him. We’re deep at every position on offense. We’re able to do more things on Offense with these players now.

I think the better way to find bowl eligible is to eliminate the ones that won't be.

Coastal - transition year, record is irrelevant save if no other bowl eligible teams, which shouldn't be an issue.
Texas State - Easy one when you can't win a game.
Georgia Southern - At 0-4, would take a miraculous effort
South Alabama - Similar to the Eagles. 1-4 is a hard start to overcome.
UTA - Last time UTA reached the number of wins for a bowl was 1984. Looks like that won't change as only Texas State looks like a sure win.

(10-08-2017 03:07 PM)FoUTASportscaster Wrote:  I think the better way to find bowl eligible is to eliminate the ones that won't be.

Coastal - transition year, record is irrelevant save if no other bowl eligible teams, which shouldn't be an issue.
Texas State - Easy one when you can't win a game.
Georgia Southern - At 0-4, would take a miraculous effort
South Alabama - Similar to the Eagles. 1-4 is a hard start to overcome.
UTA - Last time UTA reached the number of wins for a bowl was 1984. Looks like that won't change as only Texas State looks like a sure win.

Mich like UTA fan, I just wanted to participate in the conversation...

(10-08-2017 10:34 AM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  Team Rankings Bowl Eligible Probability for Sun Belt
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/projections/standings/

0.1% TXST

So you're telling me there's a chance...

(10-08-2017 10:43 AM)Golota Wrote:  

(10-07-2017 10:47 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(10-07-2017 10:23 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  Troy for sure.
App and ULM in all likelihood.
Ark. State, NMSU, and maybe one other.

ULM isn't a sure thing. They only have 3 wins, and still have to play Auburn, App, and AState. If they don't win one of those 3, they will have to beat all 3 of Georgia State, South Alabama, Idaho to get to 6 wins.

I think they can do it, but winning at South and Idaho isn't easy.

South will be 1-5 ready to throw in the towel on JJ. Idaho will be 2-5 and they’re not the same team they were last year. If ULL can beat Idaho there so can ULM. You’re right it’s not a sure thing but it’s pretty realistic that we get those 6 wins next 3 games.

About that South being 1-5 and ready to turn on JJ thing...