https://fortune.com/2024/09/18/trump-vs-...-will-win/

For the 2024 presidential race, Miller is once again relying on PredictIt. He praises the site for “having a more stable group of investors” than the populations screened by pollsters. “You have tens of thousands of people betting on the site at all times of the day,” he says. “The maximum contract is $850, and 37,000 ‘shares’ are traded on average every day.” Put simply, Miller regards PredictIt as a highly liquid market resembling an exchange for, say small-cap stocks or high yield bonds that gathers huge numbers of buyers and sellers. “Financial markets are forward-looking, and incorporate information instantaneously, and PredictIt provides the same benefits,” says Miller.

Is Harris ahead of Trump? This model says yes

For gauging Biden-Trump rematch, Miller developed a “generalized, linear model” based on results from the most recent sixteen presidential elections starting in 1960. Starting with that year’s Kennedy-Nixon race, every presidential race has been decided by 538 electoral votes. “The model’s based on a lot of historical data,” says Miller. It shows that the daily pricing on PredicitIt translates closely into the share of the popular vote favoring each candidate. Say on a certain day, bettors give candidate A a quote of 52 cents, amounting to 52% chance of winning. By Miller’s reckoning, those 52% odds should also mean that at that moment, the best forecast holds that 52% of likely voters plan to cast their ballots for candidate A.

So a lot of things are trending Trump‘s way, but the betting markets are really starting to pull Kamala’s way. Does anyone know what’s going on with the betting markets.

Did your average investor really think that Kamala is gonna win?

There are more stupid Anericans than ever. The free shite crowd will vote for her, continue their misery and wonder why.

Idgaf. Let em suffer.

therefore, what does that tell ya...

I'm still waiting for my guy to give me a number...

#7states/30counties

Either they believe one of the assassination teams out there will be successful or they believe another kind of ‘kinetic’ event will happen on election day

(09-22-2024 03:40 PM)BigTigerMike Wrote:  Either they believe one of the assassination teams out there will be successful or they believe another kind of ‘kinetic’ event will happen on election day

if third time is the 'charm', it gets pulled off the board ... just like when muh mustard buzzards quit in the 3rd quarter and muh bets got cancelled...

#next?

I still think Trump has the inside track.

I would honestly be shocked if he lost North Carolina, Georgia, or Arizona. Those 3, plus all other states he got in 2020, would put him at 262.

So then it boils down to the same 3 “Big Ten states” as ’16 and ’20 — Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Harris would have to sweep all 3; Trump would only need one, and it wouldn’t matter which one. I like his chances.

(09-22-2024 04:07 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  I still think Trump has the inside track.

I would honestly be shocked if he lost North Carolina, Georgia, or Arizona. Those 3, plus all other states he got in 2020, would put him at 262.

So then it boils down to the same 3 “Big Ten states” as ’16 and ’20 — Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Harris would have to sweep all 3; Trump would only need one, and it wouldn’t matter which one. I like his chances.

I agree. I just wonder why the betting sites don’t see it. I was wondering if the Prog Filth are manipulating these sites.

(09-22-2024 04:07 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  I still think Trump has the inside track.

I would honestly be shocked if he lost North Carolina, Georgia, or Arizona. Those 3, plus all other states he got in 2020, would put him at 262.

So then it boils down to the same 3 “Big Ten states” as ’16 and ’20 — Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Harris would have to sweep all 3; Trump would only need one, and it wouldn’t matter which one. I like his chances.

VA is in play. Gov Youngkin said it the other day

Las Vegas isn't as nice as it is because the majority of bettors win.

While I never betted on politics if its anything like sports its going to move when there's too much money the other way....

they want the push and that's all they care about so 50% betting Trump and 50% Harris is good for them.

If a team is a 3 point dog and big bucks is placed on the +3 that spread is going to move lower and lower till they get the bets up on what was the -3 team. The line moving is to try and move money the other way.

(09-22-2024 05:23 PM)WKUYG Wrote:  While I never betted on politics if its anything like sports its going to move when there's too much money the other way....

they want the push and that's all they care about so 50% betting Trump and 50% Harris is good for them.

If a team is a 3 point dog and big bucks is placed on the +3 that spread is going to move lower and lower till they get the bets up on what was the -3 team. The line moving is to try and move money the other way.

Thanks for the explanation. It is the only way this makes any sense.

(09-22-2024 05:23 PM)WKUYG Wrote:  While I never betted on politics if its anything like sports its going to move when there's too much money the other way....

they want the push and that's all they care about so 50% betting Trump and 50% Harris is good for them.

If a team is a 3 point dog and big bucks is placed on the +3 that spread is going to move lower and lower till they get the bets up on what was the -3 team. The line moving is to try and move money the other way.

it's sad too many don't understand how it's not VEGAS that mandates anything other than the initial price point ... it's a simple supply/demand equation + 10%/15%/20% vig as she moves over time ... the key is to get as close to the nut out of the gate ... therefore, you minimize risk in the 'middle' if overloading happens upon release...


@formerBookie

I’m not speaking with authority here. My sole dabbling in betting on the outcome of a presidential election is current: I bet $50 straight up with a breakfast buddy the day prior to the Trump-Harris debate. He’s been crowing about it since, and wants to double our bet. I declined. (That, plus my imminent sig acknowledgment honoring stink once he hits the magic 699 hashtag threshold.)

But, for whatever it’s worth, I looked up the September betting odds for each of the last two elections:

—> In 2016, the September line was 70-30 in favor of the skank Hillary - - wrong, but certainly much nearer the final outcome than what the common wisdom was at the time.

—> In 2020, the September line was an even 50-50 - - dead-on accurate (at least when you factor out the swing-state cheating).

In other words, Vegas seems to have a pretty clear-eyed sense of where things likely are headed. That they all favor Kamala Klepto at this late stage is worrying.

(09-22-2024 04:07 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  I still think Trump has the inside track.

I would honestly be shocked if he lost North Carolina, Georgia, or Arizona. Those 3, plus all other states he got in 2020, would put him at 262.

So then it boils down to the same 3 “Big Ten states” as ’16 and ’20 — Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Harris would have to sweep all 3; Trump would only need one, and it wouldn’t matter which one. I like his chances.

excellent analysis ...
nv/ne-2 or va do the trick ...
yes, virginia, there is a santa claus ...
I'll just add ...
if you're ahead in homestretch ...
funny way of showing it ...
self-labeling as underdog ...
pleading for another debate ...
running from your record ...
by pretending to be someone else ...

WHY WHY WHY

(09-22-2024 05:40 PM)AdoptedMonarch Wrote:  I’m not speaking with authority here. My sole dabbling in betting on the outcome of a presidential election is current: I bet $50 straight up with a breakfast buddy the day prior to the Trump-Harris debate. He’s been crowing about it since, and wants to double our bet. I declined. (That, plus my imminent sig acknowledgment honoring stink once he hits the magic 699 hashtag threshold.)

But, for whatever it’s worth, I looked up the September betting odds for each of the last two elections:

—> In 2016, the September line was 70-30 in favor of the skank Hillary - - wrong, but certainly much nearer the final outcome than what the common wisdom was at the time.

—> In 2020, the September line was an even 50-50 - - dead-on accurate (at least when you factor out the swing-state cheating).

In other words, Vegas seems to have a pretty clear-eyed sense of where things likely are headed. That they all favor Kamala Klepto at this late stage is worrying.

it tells you the money is on kneepads ... the irony is the last two faves have lost...

hence, why you'll enjoy the 'the tally limping into crescendo' on election eve ... (yeah, told ya I was gonna have fonzies with this bs) ...

(09-22-2024 05:34 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(09-22-2024 05:23 PM)WKUYG Wrote:  While I never betted on politics if its anything like sports its going to move when there's too much money the other way....

they want the push and that's all they care about so 50% betting Trump and 50% Harris is good for them.

If a team is a 3 point dog and big bucks is placed on the +3 that spread is going to move lower and lower till they get the bets up on what was the -3 team. The line moving is to try and move money the other way.

it's sad too many don't understand how it's not VEGAS that mandates anything other than the initial price point ... it's a simple supply/demand equation + 10%/15%/20% vig as she moves over time ... the key is to get as close to the nut out of the gate ... therefore, you minimize risk in the 'middle' if overloading happens upon release...


@formerBookie

can't legally bet on politics in the United States ...

FYI (FOR YOUR INFORMATION)

(09-22-2024 06:35 PM)green Wrote:  

(09-22-2024 05:34 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(09-22-2024 05:23 PM)WKUYG Wrote:  While I never betted on politics if its anything like sports its going to move when there's too much money the other way....

they want the push and that's all they care about so 50% betting Trump and 50% Harris is good for them.

If a team is a 3 point dog and big bucks is placed on the +3 that spread is going to move lower and lower till they get the bets up on what was the -3 team. The line moving is to try and move money the other way.

it's sad too many don't understand how it's not VEGAS that mandates anything other than the initial price point ... it's a simple supply/demand equation + 10%/15%/20% vig as she moves over time ... the key is to get as close to the nut out of the gate ... therefore, you minimize risk in the 'middle' if overloading happens upon release...


@formerBookie

can't legally bet on politics in the United States ...

FYI (FOR YOUR INFORMATION)

thanks for the tip...

OH DARN DARN DARN

(09-22-2024 06:31 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(09-22-2024 05:40 PM)AdoptedMonarch Wrote:  I’m not speaking with authority here. My sole dabbling in betting on the outcome of a presidential election is current: I bet $50 straight up with a breakfast buddy the day prior to the Trump-Harris debate. He’s been crowing about it since, and wants to double our bet. I declined. (That, plus my imminent sig acknowledgment honoring stink once he hits the magic 699 hashtag threshold.)

But, for whatever it’s worth, I looked up the September betting odds for each of the last two elections:

—> In 2016, the September line was 70-30 in favor of the skank Hillary - - wrong, but certainly much nearer the final outcome than what the common wisdom was at the time.

—> In 2020, the September line was an even 50-50 - - dead-on accurate (at least when you factor out the swing-state cheating).

In other words, Vegas seems to have a pretty clear-eyed sense of where things likely are headed. That they all favor Kamala Klepto at this late stage is worrying.

it tells you the money is on kneepads ... the irony is the last two faves have lost...

hence, why you'll enjoy the 'the tally limping into crescendo' on election eve ... (yeah, told ya I was gonna have fonzies with this bs) ...

"it tells you the money is on kneepads"

It's not that hard to understand but for some it is. It's not Vegas or a Bookie saying who's going to win, it the people putting money out there about what they think who's going to win. Vegas just put odds out there and people throw their money at the winning team or person. Vegas and Bookies make their money off of loser.

(09-22-2024 05:40 PM)AdoptedMonarch Wrote:  I looked up the September betting odds for each of the last two elections:

—> In 2016, the September line was 70-30 in favor of the skank Hillary - - wrong, but certainly much nearer the final outcome than what the common wisdom was at the time.

—> In 2020, the September line was an even 50-50 - - dead-on accurate (at least when you factor out the swing-state cheating).

Monarch (or anyone else), do you have a link to the 2020 betting odds? I admit I don’t really remember, but I sure thought the odds had broken to a 60/40 like ratio in Biden’s favor by this stage of the game.

(09-22-2024 07:47 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(09-22-2024 05:40 PM)AdoptedMonarch Wrote:  I looked up the September betting odds for each of the last two elections:

—> In 2016, the September line was 70-30 in favor of the skank Hillary - - wrong, but certainly much nearer the final outcome than what the common wisdom was at the time.

—> In 2020, the September line was an even 50-50 - - dead-on accurate (at least when you factor out the swing-state cheating).

Monarch (or anyone else), do you have a link to the 2020 betting odds? I admit I don’t really remember, but I sure thought the odds had broken to a 60/40 like ratio in Biden’s favor by this stage of the game.

This is the site I found:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/electi...president/

September was dead even, but then it broke for Biden.