(09-04-2024 03:12 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 03:02 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 02:28 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 02:13 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 02:11 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Halperin had an update today. He has heard from a couple of dem insiders who say that not only is Kamala behind in PA in their internal polls, these people believe, at this point, she's not going to win PA. And the issue with that is that it becomes very unlikely Kamala can win the EC if she loses PA.

Rasmussen's daily poll ticked to Trump +6 today. The 5 day moving average is Trump +2 nationally, which is an EC blowout for Trump.

If things continue like this, then Halperin may have been spot on to say that insiders believed Kamala could find herself in the same spot as Biden* was by the middle of September.

Muh polls, AMIRITE?

nope

internals

Right...and unnamed sources talking to a guy who's not involved in the campaign. A guy who works for Newsmax no less. A guy who was fired for sexual harassment complaints made by several women.

Got it.

Where should I place my bet on trump?

Well, almost:

Halperin said last week that their internal polls wasnt as good as the public polls. He also said there would be more polls coming out that week that would be bad for Harris.

That happened. So unnamed sources or not, what they said was going to happen did actually happen.

And it’s not like he said there’s no path to victory. He’s just being honest about what he’s hearing.

Still two months out regardless.

(09-04-2024 03:04 PM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  Halperin was the first media type to break news that Biden was stepping down. He definitely is still connected

He’s been saying for weeks that the internals don’t show Kamala clearly winning. Others like Baris has been pointing to the ‘blue mirage’ where the posters are going to areas that they know will be more favorable to Kamala and thus stacking the deck in the polls

Again, Polls don’t lie but posters do

(09-04-2024 03:02 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 02:28 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 02:13 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 02:11 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Halperin had an update today. He has heard from a couple of dem insiders who say that not only is Kamala behind in PA in their internal polls, these people believe, at this point, she's not going to win PA. And the issue with that is that it becomes very unlikely Kamala can win the EC if she loses PA.

Rasmussen's daily poll ticked to Trump +6 today. The 5 day moving average is Trump +2 nationally, which is an EC blowout for Trump.

If things continue like this, then Halperin may have been spot on to say that insiders believed Kamala could find herself in the same spot as Biden* was by the middle of September.

Muh polls, AMIRITE?

nope

internals

Right...and unnamed sources talking to a guy who's not involved in the campaign. A guy who works for Newsmax no less. A guy who was fired for sexual harassment complaints made by several women.

Got it.

Where should I place my bet on trump?

You are welcome to place your bet on Kamala. I'll wager a 2 year board ban, if you'll put up a 1 year ban for yourself. You're getting 2-1 for the amazing Kamala. How can you refuse?

(09-04-2024 03:15 PM)BigTigerMike Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 03:04 PM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  Halperin was the first media type to break news that Biden was stepping down. He definitely is still connected

He’s been saying for weeks that the internals don’t show Kamala clearly winning. Others like Baris has been pointing to the ‘blue mirage’ where the posters are going to areas that they know will be more favorable to Kamala and thus stacking the deck in the polls

Again, Polls don’t lie but posters do

They were also releasing super old polls from weeks prior right after the DNC. It looked like it was on purpose

Is Tom panicking yet?

(09-04-2024 03:06 PM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 03:04 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 02:55 PM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  Let’s assume Halperin is right…(we don’t know for sure)

The basement strategy is obviously backfiring. But she’s caught in a catch 22, the more she visible then the more people repudiate her.

What basement strategy, trump's? He's the one with no events this week. She's been traveling all over the place.

But boo ******* who...she's not talking to the incompetent media.

She can’t even do a podcast? Trump has done numerous long form interviews with various people along the political spectrum.

He’s done events and rallies, and has already participated in a debate.

People know where to find him.

Podcasts?

Have you listened to any of those trump things? It's just him rambling nonsensically like he does at his rally's. He never gets pressed for any specifics, and if he does, he just avoids any and rants some more.

It's why you get things like him saying kids are getting sex changes in schools and are returning home in a day.

He's demented.

(09-04-2024 03:04 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 02:55 PM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  Let’s assume Halperin is right…(we don’t know for sure)

The basement strategy is obviously backfiring. But she’s caught in a catch 22, the more she visible then the more people repudiate her.

What basement strategy, trump's? He's the one with no events this week. She's been traveling all over the place.

But boo ******* who...she's not talking to the incompetent media.

lol---yet another swing and miss. Trump is literally doing a nationally televised town hall tonight on FOX. Harris could have been standing next to him waiting for her moment to deliver a well practiced "Im speaking Mr President". Instead, she'll be in a room packed with a bunch of fake crowd extra's from Hollywood Central Casting campaigning in a state Democrats usually have locked down before the primaries even start.

(09-04-2024 03:21 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 03:06 PM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 03:04 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 02:55 PM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  Let’s assume Halperin is right…(we don’t know for sure)

The basement strategy is obviously backfiring. But she’s caught in a catch 22, the more she visible then the more people repudiate her.

What basement strategy, trump's? He's the one with no events this week. She's been traveling all over the place.

But boo ******* who...she's not talking to the incompetent media.

She can’t even do a podcast? Trump has done numerous long form interviews with various people along the political spectrum.

He’s done events and rallies, and has already participated in a debate.

People know where to find him.

Podcasts?

Have you listened to any of those trump things? It's just him rambling nonsensically like he does at his rally's. He never gets pressed for any specifics, and if he does, he just avoids any and rants some more.

It's why you get things like him saying kids are getting sex changes in schools and are returning home in a day.

He's demented.

Yeah, independent media and podcasts that garner millions of views from people who don’t watch mainstream news, a dying industry.

you said he was hiding in the basement and had nothing on his schedule, when he actually is doing things…You are lost.

(09-04-2024 03:13 PM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 03:12 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 03:02 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 02:28 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 02:13 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  Muh polls, AMIRITE?

nope

internals

Right...and unnamed sources talking to a guy who's not involved in the campaign. A guy who works for Newsmax no less. A guy who was fired for sexual harassment complaints made by several women.

Got it.

Where should I place my bet on trump?

Well, almost:

Halperin said last week that their internal polls wasnt as good as the public polls. He also said there would be more polls coming out that week that would be bad for Harris.

That happened. So unnamed sources or not, what they said was going to happen did actually happen.

And it’s not like he said there’s no path to victory. He’s just being honest about what he’s hearing.

Still two months out regardless.

Sure...

(09-04-2024 03:23 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 03:13 PM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 03:12 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 03:02 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 02:28 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  nope

internals

Right...and unnamed sources talking to a guy who's not involved in the campaign. A guy who works for Newsmax no less. A guy who was fired for sexual harassment complaints made by several women.

Got it.

Where should I place my bet on trump?

Well, almost:

Halperin said last week that their internal polls wasnt as good as the public polls. He also said there would be more polls coming out that week that would be bad for Harris.

That happened. So unnamed sources or not, what they said was going to happen did actually happen.

And it’s not like he said there’s no path to victory. He’s just being honest about what he’s hearing.

Still two months out regardless.

Sure...

https://x.com/collinrugg/status/18140618...jJ1vR_BcHw

Yeah…

(09-04-2024 03:23 PM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 03:21 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 03:06 PM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 03:04 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 02:55 PM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  Let’s assume Halperin is right…(we don’t know for sure)

The basement strategy is obviously backfiring. But she’s caught in a catch 22, the more she visible then the more people repudiate her.

What basement strategy, trump's? He's the one with no events this week. She's been traveling all over the place.

But boo ******* who...she's not talking to the incompetent media.

She can’t even do a podcast? Trump has done numerous long form interviews with various people along the political spectrum.

He’s done events and rallies, and has already participated in a debate.

People know where to find him.

Podcasts?

Have you listened to any of those trump things? It's just him rambling nonsensically like he does at his rally's. He never gets pressed for any specifics, and if he does, he just avoids any and rants some more.

It's why you get things like him saying kids are getting sex changes in schools and are returning home in a day.

He's demented.

Yeah, independent media and podcasts that garner millions of views from people who don’t watch mainstream news, a dying industry.

you said he was hiding in the basement and had nothing on his schedule, when he actually is doing things…You are lost.

I heard on Monday that at the time he had one thing scheduled in Wisconsin. So he added something. Sue me.

And big ******* whoop...he's going on Fox. And no, the things he does aren't "independent."

(09-04-2024 03:13 PM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 03:12 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 03:02 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 02:28 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 02:13 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  Muh polls, AMIRITE?

nope

internals

Right...and unnamed sources talking to a guy who's not involved in the campaign. A guy who works for Newsmax no less. A guy who was fired for sexual harassment complaints made by several women.

Got it.

Where should I place my bet on trump?

Well, almost:

Halperin said last week that their internal polls wasnt as good as the public polls. He also said there would be more polls coming out that week that would be bad for Harris.

That happened. So unnamed sources or not, what they said was going to happen did actually happen.

And it’s not like he said there’s no path to victory. He’s just being honest about what he’s hearing.

Still two months out regardless.

yes, and thats what Halperin and Baris are both alluding to. Whereas Harris may have a path(s) without PA, it becomes bizarro world as to how she would pull that off, but she would HAVE to flip either GA or NC. If Trump were to also win GA and NC, he wouldnt need NV, AZ, MI, or WI in that scenario. Thats 270.

(09-04-2024 03:26 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 03:23 PM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 03:21 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 03:06 PM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 03:04 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  What basement strategy, trump's? He's the one with no events this week. She's been traveling all over the place.

But boo ******* who...she's not talking to the incompetent media.

She can’t even do a podcast? Trump has done numerous long form interviews with various people along the political spectrum.

He’s done events and rallies, and has already participated in a debate.

People know where to find him.

Podcasts?

Have you listened to any of those trump things? It's just him rambling nonsensically like he does at his rally's. He never gets pressed for any specifics, and if he does, he just avoids any and rants some more.

It's why you get things like him saying kids are getting sex changes in schools and are returning home in a day.

He's demented.

Yeah, independent media and podcasts that garner millions of views from people who don’t watch mainstream news, a dying industry.

you said he was hiding in the basement and had nothing on his schedule, when he actually is doing things…You are lost.

I heard on Monday that at the time he had one thing scheduled in Wisconsin. So he added something. Sue me.

And big ******* whoop...he's going on Fox. And no, the things he does aren't "independent."

Harris can go on whatever she wants too, I’d watch and would be interested to see what she had to say in a non combative environment, which Trump has done.

It’s way more interesting than the scripted gotcha questions that both candidates get.

(09-04-2024 03:28 PM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 03:26 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 03:23 PM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 03:21 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 03:06 PM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  She can’t even do a podcast? Trump has done numerous long form interviews with various people along the political spectrum.

He’s done events and rallies, and has already participated in a debate.

People know where to find him.

Podcasts?

Have you listened to any of those trump things? It's just him rambling nonsensically like he does at his rally's. He never gets pressed for any specifics, and if he does, he just avoids any and rants some more.

It's why you get things like him saying kids are getting sex changes in schools and are returning home in a day.

He's demented.

Yeah, independent media and podcasts that garner millions of views from people who don’t watch mainstream news, a dying industry.

you said he was hiding in the basement and had nothing on his schedule, when he actually is doing things…You are lost.

I heard on Monday that at the time he had one thing scheduled in Wisconsin. So he added something. Sue me.

And big ******* whoop...he's going on Fox. And no, the things he does aren't "independent."

Harris can go on whatever she wants too, I’d watch and would be interested to see what she had to say in a non combative environment, which Trump has done.

It’s way more interesting than the scripted gotcha questions that both candidates get.

And Trumps responses in those combative environments is nothing much more than his trademark wall of random ideas and phrases with a pre-cooked rhetorically grand tagline, followed by a proverbial lie.

I mean, sometimes I think he is running straight off a MadLibs cheat sheet tucked just out of eyesight.

(09-04-2024 03:34 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 03:28 PM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 03:26 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 03:23 PM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 03:21 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  Podcasts?

Have you listened to any of those trump things? It's just him rambling nonsensically like he does at his rally's. He never gets pressed for any specifics, and if he does, he just avoids any and rants some more.

It's why you get things like him saying kids are getting sex changes in schools and are returning home in a day.

He's demented.

Yeah, independent media and podcasts that garner millions of views from people who don’t watch mainstream news, a dying industry.

you said he was hiding in the basement and had nothing on his schedule, when he actually is doing things…You are lost.

I heard on Monday that at the time he had one thing scheduled in Wisconsin. So he added something. Sue me.

And big ******* whoop...he's going on Fox. And no, the things he does aren't "independent."

Harris can go on whatever she wants too, I’d watch and would be interested to see what she had to say in a non combative environment, which Trump has done.

It’s way more interesting than the scripted gotcha questions that both candidates get.

And Trumps responses in those combative environments is nothing much more than his trademark wall of random ideas and phrases with a pre-cooked rhetorically grand tagline, followed by a proverbial lie.

I mean, sometimes I think he is running straight off a MadLibs cheat sheet tucked just out of eyesight.

And you pretty much missed the point. Tom said Trump wasn’t doing anything, which he is. Of course he’s going to gaffe it up, exaggerate, ramble, etc. That’s Trumps brand and we’ve seen it for 8 years.

The long form interviews are more enlightening and you actually learn more about what drives someone to run for president.

It’s still important to do interviews where you’re in an adversarial position, which he has also done. Harris has done one “adversarial” interview since being anointed. She won’t even do friendly interviews either.

(09-04-2024 02:42 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 02:39 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  there is little reason to expect [Harris] to poll any different from Biden.

She'll get a somewhat better number than Biden, simply for her race and gender.

Maybe. I honestly believe it will cut the other way.

Harris did a lot of talking before the 2020 primary and let some of her ideas be known. I imagine the results of that are not lost on her handlers given how well she fared when people got to know her.

(09-04-2024 01:59 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 01:22 PM)bullet Wrote:  RCP shows Kamala slightly leading in Georgia. What I see here is they have reduced their ads. Trump is doing more for the first time.
I read that as Trump has a narrowing lead and is trying to hold on. The Democrats have moved their money elsewhere because they see Georgia as a longshot.
If they really had a narrow lead, they would be flooding the airwaves like they did all summer.

If you take a look at trump spending, he is literally 1/5 to 1/20th of the Harris spending in all the swing states except GA and PA.

Trump is spending the vast majority of his expenditures in those two states.

He is, at this point, seemingly embarking on a 'everything on one path'. His base states + GA + PA get him to 270 EV

For AZ, MI, NV, NC WI total for last 10 days + next 20 days--
Harris -- about 170 million
Trump -- about 24 million

For PA + GA
Harris -- 109.8 million (39 / 71 between GA / PA)
Trump -- 109.3 million (39 / 71 between GA / PA)

Dems actually increased in GA and PA in the last 20 to match the R expenditures.

And Dems are sitting on a metric **** ton of moolah at this stage, having reportedly raised 540 million in the last month and a half. And, they dont have to shell out for legal expenses on the level that the Trump campaign has.

Your data is bad. Trump did almost nothing in Georgia until the last month. Dems were doing massive ads.

Trump advisor was saying NC, GA, AZ and NV were pretty safe for Trump, That would get him to 268. With NE-2 it would be 269. The battle was to get one more out of WI, MI or PA or alternatively picking up a blue state like NM, VA, NH or ME.

(09-04-2024 03:42 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 02:42 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 02:39 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  there is little reason to expect [Harris] to poll any different from Biden.

She'll get a somewhat better number than Biden, simply for her race and gender.

Maybe. I honestly believe it will cut the other way.

I think Kamala will do better in blue states and worse in red and swing states.
But then Biden was really sinking, mentally and in public opinion. He may have lost a lot more than just the swing states. Trump might have had a Reaganesque win vs. Biden. Dems were clearly terrified and did an unprecedented un Democratic removal of a candidate.

(09-04-2024 03:49 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 01:59 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(09-04-2024 01:22 PM)bullet Wrote:  RCP shows Kamala slightly leading in Georgia. What I see here is they have reduced their ads. Trump is doing more for the first time.
I read that as Trump has a narrowing lead and is trying to hold on. The Democrats have moved their money elsewhere because they see Georgia as a longshot.
If they really had a narrow lead, they would be flooding the airwaves like they did all summer.

If you take a look at trump spending, he is literally 1/5 to 1/20th of the Harris spending in all the swing states except GA and PA.

Trump is spending the vast majority of his expenditures in those two states.

He is, at this point, seemingly embarking on a 'everything on one path'. His base states + GA + PA get him to 270 EV

For AZ, MI, NV, NC WI total for last 10 days + next 20 days--
Harris -- about 170 million
Trump -- about 24 million

For PA + GA
Harris -- 109.8 million (39 / 71 between GA / PA)
Trump -- 109.3 million (39 / 71 between GA / PA)

Dems actually increased in GA and PA in the last 20 to match the R expenditures.

And Dems are sitting on a metric **** ton of moolah at this stage, having reportedly raised 540 million in the last month and a half. And, they dont have to shell out for legal expenses on the level that the Trump campaign has.

Your data is bad. Trump did almost nothing in Georgia until the last month. Dems were doing massive ads.

Trump advisor was saying NC, GA, AZ and NV were pretty safe for Trump, That would get him to 268. With NE-2 it would be 269. The battle was to get one more out of WI, MI or PA or alternatively picking up a blue state like NM, VA, NH or ME.

It’s smart to invest in the tipping point states when you’re at a money disadvantage.

Trump won in 2016 despite being out-raised 2:1 by Clinton. Money matters, but messaging and targeted campaigns are more influential