This is probably going to get bad. Housing market in my area has almost stalled. I’m seeing more and more companies closing and/or laying people off.

(08-02-2024 11:21 AM)BigTigerMike Wrote:  DOW is getting hammered. Off 700 plus

Why does this always seem to happen AFTER I get paid and contribute to my 401k? Oh well, I think it's just an overreaction. Markets tend to do that from time to time.

(08-02-2024 10:02 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(08-02-2024 08:23 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  250k were on temporary layoff due to Hurricane Beryl, so that's why the unemployment rate increased.

Regardless, these numbers will be revised downward and the trend is not good.

Not according to the BLS.

Quote:Hurricane Beryl made landfall on the central coast of Texas on July 8, 2024, during the reference periods for both the household and establishment surveys. Hurricane Beryl had no discernible effect on the national employment and unemployment data for July, and the response rates for the two surveys were within normal ranges. For information on how unusually severe weather can affect employment and hours estimates, see the Frequently Asked Questions section of this news release.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Let’s wait until the next revision.


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(08-02-2024 11:31 AM)GrayBeard Wrote:  This is probably going to get bad. Housing market in my area has almost stalled. I’m seeing more and more companies closing and/or laying people off.

What should happen is that prices should drop (certainly more than they have to this point). Inventories have skyrocketed everywhere except the northeast, which is remaining very stubborn. Simple supply and demand leans toward falling prices.

The problem is the 10 year Treasury which drives most of the real estate pricing. The Yield curve has to flatten and return to normal which will be a shock to the system no matter what. If the 10 stays and the short rates drop back to "normal", you will still have high Mortgage rates (at least where they sit today). Virtually nobody under 40 has seen a 9% or 10% mortgage rate which is a lot closer to normal than the 5% range they are used to. Unless market values go down 25% (at least) mortgages will still be unaffordable and that will be gas on on fire. This may make 2008-2011 look like a bump in the road.

I do not, nor can I or anyone else, blame Biden for this. This is the Fed's problem. They have been far, far to stringent and stubborn; and they have not adjusted to current times. Powell continues to act like it is the 1990's. Times have changed, they have not, and that will come back to bit them (and us) pretty soon.

(08-02-2024 08:18 AM)Eldonabe Wrote:  This had to happen, it just took waaay to long to get here. This Unemployment uptick is about 9-12 months over due.

Now the Fed has what it needs to lower rates, frankly I am surprised it did not happen the other day. I really do believe they were waiting for maximum political impact by holding out until September.

Similar to the mistake of keeping rates too low, too long, they have kept rates too high too long and now rate cuts will take a lot of time to stop increases to the unemployment rate.

You all think expensive stuff hurts, losing your job hurts A LOT more.

Wonder how much of the delay is due to people dropping out of the workforce and how much is the Biden administration manipulating the statistics.

(08-02-2024 09:28 AM)UABFAN23 Wrote:  

(08-02-2024 09:00 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  

(08-02-2024 08:55 AM)mlb Wrote:  

(08-02-2024 08:53 AM)UABFAN23 Wrote:  Consider all the people working 2-3 jobs to scrape by financially. They might as well be unemployed as well. Bidenomics is doing wonders for America. Keep voting blue, you fools.

Out of curiosity, do you happen to have any statistics on how many are working more than one job and how it has grown over the last 3.5 years? I know a few, but they also worked multiple jobs under Trump and Obama as well. I'm curious as to how much it has grown thanks to inflation.

Three good charts that illustrate the underlying problems. Most of the job gains are part time work. The highest sectors gaining are government and healthcare (heavily subsidized by the government).

The trend of average hours worked per week is trending down, close to where we were during the pandemic.


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That last chart needs to be a Trump campaign ad.

(08-02-2024 01:02 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-02-2024 08:18 AM)Eldonabe Wrote:  This had to happen, it just took waaay to long to get here. This Unemployment uptick is about 9-12 months over due.

Now the Fed has what it needs to lower rates, frankly I am surprised it did not happen the other day. I really do believe they were waiting for maximum political impact by holding out until September.

Similar to the mistake of keeping rates too low, too long, they have kept rates too high too long and now rate cuts will take a lot of time to stop increases to the unemployment rate.

You all think expensive stuff hurts, losing your job hurts A LOT more.

Wonder how much of the delay is due to people dropping out of the workforce and how much is the Biden administration manipulating the statistics.

That is hard to pin.... Dropping out and retiring are different, and we are in the middle of Baby Boomer retirements... The BLS is a BS measurement and should not be given a lot of weight even though too many do give it weight. It is always skewed to the opposite direction of real numbers. When we were in full recovery circa 2013 - 2017 - they always underestimated job growth and now that it is on the rise, they overestimate Growth. It is a sh1tty metric.

I'm doing an appraisal now in a new home subdivision that has seen a 10% decrease on values during the paverst 6 months that currently has a 15 month supply of spec homes available. Not only that but the builder is paying ALL closing costs, putting up blinds, including a new washer, dryer and fridge. Prices will continue falling. Inventory everywhere is increasing.

I seldom (never?) agree with Fauxcahontas, but this time is the exception: she's right. They should've anticipated and cut now.

One CFO I work with was calling for a quarter point LAST Fed meeting seeing this coming.

(08-02-2024 01:32 PM)The Sicatoka Wrote:  I seldom (never?) agree with Fauxcahontas, but this time is the exception: she's right. They should've anticipated and cut now.

One CFO I work with was calling for a quarter point LAST Fed meeting seeing this coming.

Rate cuts should have been spread out and should have started 9 or so months ago. It should have been 25BPS every third meeting.

As per usual, the fed is 5 steps behind.

(08-02-2024 01:24 PM)Eldonabe Wrote:  

(08-02-2024 01:02 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-02-2024 08:18 AM)Eldonabe Wrote:  This had to happen, it just took waaay to long to get here. This Unemployment uptick is about 9-12 months over due.

Now the Fed has what it needs to lower rates, frankly I am surprised it did not happen the other day. I really do believe they were waiting for maximum political impact by holding out until September.

Similar to the mistake of keeping rates too low, too long, they have kept rates too high too long and now rate cuts will take a lot of time to stop increases to the unemployment rate.

You all think expensive stuff hurts, losing your job hurts A LOT more.

Wonder how much of the delay is due to people dropping out of the workforce and how much is the Biden administration manipulating the statistics.

That is hard to pin.... Dropping out and retiring are different, and we are in the middle of Baby Boomer retirements... The BLS is a BS measurement and should not be given a lot of weight even though too many do give it weight. It is always skewed to the opposite direction of real numbers. When we were in full recovery circa 2013 - 2017 - they always underestimated job growth and now that it is on the rise, they overestimate Growth. It is a sh1tty metric.

I think we are starting to see the "non-linear" portion of the recession start. Unemployment in recessions typically progresses in two stages. One is linear and the other is where unemployment tends to suddenly take off in an non-linear fashion.

What we normally see is the unemployment rate put in a low---followed by the early linear portion of the recession. This is marked by noisy data that almost appears to be a sideways trend with a bias toward increasing unemployment. The increase occurs over 6-14 months and is relatively small (generally less than a 1 point increase). During this time, there will be all sorts of signs of underlying weakness in the economic data---but unemployment will remain seemingly under control. Economists will use employment condition descriptions like "steady" and "resilient" to dismiss statistical data suggesting underlying economic weakness (sound familiar?).

Then after about 6-14 month of this---unemployment will suddenly take off in an non-linear fashion. This is the part of the recession where people actually begin to really take notice---but it honestly should not be the surprise that it always seems to be. There are always plenty of warnings---they are just ignored because employment seems to be holding reasonably steady. But this pattern plays out over and over if you simply look at past recessions.

The only difference from past patterns is the lag time. Before the 80's or 90's, we were more of an industrial economy, so as soon as the orders started lagging, the layoffs started (usually after 6 or 7 months of noisy unemployment data following the unemployment low). Now, due to the more service based nature of our economy, it takes about twice as long for the linear unemployment portion of the recession to devolve into the non-linear unemployment increases of the nastier portion of an economic slow down. I suspect its going to start getting ugly from here.

Harris Team Just Gave a Sure-Fire Reason to Not Vote for Her With Unhinged Reaction to July Jobs Report

Quote:One of the main issues for the election is the economy.

It's already been bad under Biden-Harris. It got worse on Friday as the stock market tanked and a bad July jobs report came in, as we reported.

Hiring slowed to 114,000 jobs last month, the government report said, missing expectations. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent—its highest level in nearly three years, when the economy was still clawing its way back from the pandemic. That was also worse than expectations.

Now, that raises big concerns about a slowing economy, which my colleague Ward Clark noted.

Economist John Lonski said on Fox Business that it is starting to look like a recession is coming into view:

"I'm beginning to smell a recession coming into view," Lonski said. "This jump by the unemployment rate, my goodness, 4.3 percent, this is up sharply from not long ago."

Even CNN had to admit the jobs report was "surprisingly weak" and "going in the wrong direction."

CNN reporter Matt Egan said, "This jobs report was weak -- surprisingly weak, and it is amplifying these concerns about the economy that have started to emerge":

So, what excuse did the Harris team have?

You won't believe how unhinged their response was to this. Or maybe you will, given how so much of what they say isn't based on any kind of reality. The response to this question alone should be disqualifying because it's such a bunch of horse hockey.

According to Harris' spokesperson, guess who's somehow responsible for their bad jobs report?

"Donald Trump failed Americans as president, costing our economy millions of jobs, and bringing us to the brink of recession," Harris for President spokesperson James Singer said in a statement.

"Now, he’s promising even more damage with a Project 2025 agenda that will decimate the middle class and increase taxes on working families, while ripping away health care, raising prescription drug costs, and cutting Social Security and Medicare — all while making his billionaire donors richer."

Someone want to explain how the Biden-Harris disaster has anything to do with Trump, almost a full term after he was in office? What does that say about their refusal to take accountability for their own failures? And what does Project 2025 (which isn't in effect) have to do with anything--when it has nothing to do with Trump and nothing to do with the Biden-Harris bad economy? Do they really think Americans are going to buy all this bilge?

Singer added: "We’ve made significant progress, but Vice President Harris knows there’s more work to do to lower costs for families."

Singer said Harris "will make building up the middle class the defining goal of her presidency, taking on greedy corporations that are price gouging consumers, banning hidden fees, and capping unfair rent increases and drug costs."

So, she's going to say and do the same things that they've already been doing that helped get us into this mess to begin with, blaming everyone else but themselves for the problems.

Ultimately, it always comes down to the economy and Harris just gave a sure-fire reason why you should not vote for her, when she refuses to take responsibility for the administration's own actions.

I am surprised our resident Economics, Oil, legal expert has not chimed in yet.

Oh wait, this is not positive news for the current administration.... My bad,

(08-02-2024 09:00 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  

(08-02-2024 08:55 AM)mlb Wrote:  

(08-02-2024 08:53 AM)UABFAN23 Wrote:  Consider all the people working 2-3 jobs to scrape by financially. They might as well be unemployed as well. Bidenomics is doing wonders for America. Keep voting blue, you fools.

Out of curiosity, do you happen to have any statistics on how many are working more than one job and how it has grown over the last 3.5 years? I know a few, but they also worked multiple jobs under Trump and Obama as well. I'm curious as to how much it has grown thanks to inflation.

https://x.com/realejantoni/status/181936...jJ1vR_BcHw

https://x.com/realejantoni/status/181936...jJ1vR_BcHw

https://x.com/realejantoni/status/181936...jJ1vR_BcHw

Three good charts that illustrate the underlying problems. Most of the job gains are part time work. The highest sectors gaining are government and healthcare (heavily subsidized by the government).

The trend of average hours worked per week is trending down, close to where we were during the pandemic.


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You do know he was being snarky, right? He never expected you to produce receipts. He could have easily looked this up himself but he thought he saw an opportunity to have a gotcha moment. Well done.

(08-02-2024 09:35 AM)shere khan Wrote:  Numbers out.

Officialy in a Recession.

Thanks filth

They've been pretending we haven't been in one all year.

Interestingly enough, Tommie Bois is noticeably absent from this thread.

(08-03-2024 07:45 AM)BartlettTigerFan Wrote:  Interestingly enough, Tommie Bois is noticeably absent from this thread.

He will be along to call people names in no time.

(08-03-2024 06:59 AM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote:  

(08-02-2024 09:00 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  

(08-02-2024 08:55 AM)mlb Wrote:  

(08-02-2024 08:53 AM)UABFAN23 Wrote:  Consider all the people working 2-3 jobs to scrape by financially. They might as well be unemployed as well. Bidenomics is doing wonders for America. Keep voting blue, you fools.

Out of curiosity, do you happen to have any statistics on how many are working more than one job and how it has grown over the last 3.5 years? I know a few, but they also worked multiple jobs under Trump and Obama as well. I'm curious as to how much it has grown thanks to inflation.

https://x.com/realejantoni/status/181936...jJ1vR_BcHw

https://x.com/realejantoni/status/181936...jJ1vR_BcHw

https://x.com/realejantoni/status/181936...jJ1vR_BcHw

Three good charts that illustrate the underlying problems. Most of the job gains are part time work. The highest sectors gaining are government and healthcare (heavily subsidized by the government).

The trend of average hours worked per week is trending down, close to where we were during the pandemic.


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You do know he was being snarky, right? He never expected you to produce receipts. He could have easily looked this up himself but he thought he saw an opportunity to have a gotcha moment. Well done.

Maybe. Regardless it’s good to provide sources even if the questions are in bad faith.


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(08-03-2024 11:01 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  

(08-03-2024 06:59 AM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote:  

(08-02-2024 09:00 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  

(08-02-2024 08:55 AM)mlb Wrote:  

(08-02-2024 08:53 AM)UABFAN23 Wrote:  Consider all the people working 2-3 jobs to scrape by financially. They might as well be unemployed as well. Bidenomics is doing wonders for America. Keep voting blue, you fools.

Out of curiosity, do you happen to have any statistics on how many are working more than one job and how it has grown over the last 3.5 years? I know a few, but they also worked multiple jobs under Trump and Obama as well. I'm curious as to how much it has grown thanks to inflation.

https://x.com/realejantoni/status/181936...jJ1vR_BcHw

https://x.com/realejantoni/status/181936...jJ1vR_BcHw

https://x.com/realejantoni/status/181936...jJ1vR_BcHw

Three good charts that illustrate the underlying problems. Most of the job gains are part time work. The highest sectors gaining are government and healthcare (heavily subsidized by the government).

The trend of average hours worked per week is trending down, close to where we were during the pandemic.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You do know he was being snarky, right? He never expected you to produce receipts. He could have easily looked this up himself but he thought he saw an opportunity to have a gotcha moment. Well done.

Maybe. Regardless it’s good to provide sources even if the questions are in bad faith.


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I appreciated the backup too, but reality says we didn’t need much statistical evidence. We have a local DG that has 40-60 year old men working short shifts in the evening as 2nd jobs.

The folks in charge in DC don’t have any idea what they’re doing on 98% of the issues except when they reinstall something the GOP introduced and rename it as if it were an idea of their own.