Bad news for President Harris

Companies added 150,000 jobs last month, missing the 160,000 gain that economists surveyed by Refinitiv predicted and down from the revised 157,000 figure in May.

At the same time, the report showed that wage growth — a key driver of inflation — dropped slightly to 4.9%, the slowest pace of growth since August 2021. For workers who changed jobs, wages climbed 7.7%, down from the 7.8% increase recorded in May.

Wait until they post the real number in 2 months and it is adjusted to 0.0%

It's the prescription needed in order to cool inflation. Pretty much stated in the first paragraph. Later in the piece it gives you exactly the Fed's criteria before they back off from the higher interest rates...which honestly are in line with typical historical rates. We just got very comfortable with unprecedentedly low interest rates from 2010 until 2020.

Quote:Hiring by U.S. companies slowed more than expected in June, pointing to a labor market that is continuing to cool in the face of higher interest rates, according to the ADP National Employment Report released Wednesday morning.

Quote:The weaker-than-expected report comes in the wake of an aggressive tightening campaign by the Federal Reserve, which has raised interest rates to the highest level since 2001. Wall Street is watching the labor market closely for signs that it is finally cooling, so the Fed can pivot to cutting interest rates.

Central bank officials have indicated that rate cuts will begin later this year but cautioned they need to see more evidence that inflation is returning to their 2% target.

(07-03-2024 12:16 PM)Eldonabe Wrote:  Wait until they post the real number in 2 months and it is adjusted to 0.0%

Exactly. And any jobs that do post will go to illegals….

(07-03-2024 12:16 PM)miko33 Wrote:  It's the prescription needed in order to cool inflation. Pretty much stated in the first paragraph. Later in the piece it gives you exactly the Fed's criteria before they back off from the higher interest rates...which honestly are in line with typical historical rates. We just got very comfortable with unprecedentedly low interest rates from 2010 until 2020.

Quote:Hiring by U.S. companies slowed more than expected in June, pointing to a labor market that is continuing to cool in the face of higher interest rates, according to the ADP National Employment Report released Wednesday morning.

Quote:The weaker-than-expected report comes in the wake of an aggressive tightening campaign by the Federal Reserve, which has raised interest rates to the highest level since 2001. Wall Street is watching the labor market closely for signs that it is finally cooling, so the Fed can pivot to cutting interest rates.

Central bank officials have indicated that rate cuts will begin later this year but cautioned they need to see more evidence that inflation is returning to their 2% target.

So we won’t have jobs and those that do will have stagnating wages but inflation will “cool”.

Sounds wonderful.

Yeah, I see Tommy Boy is conveniently quiet on the subject.

Tries to come on spew what a great job these Imbeciles in the Democratic Party have done. Completely utterly useless BS from him.

Tommy reminds me of a Water Windmill in West Texas that the well has dried up. It still spins and makes a lot of squeaky noises but doesn’t produce anything.

Most of jobs Biden has created are basically government jobs----which largely produce nothing.

We've covered this dozens of time now.

This is the ADP report. It's not the official jobs report released by the BLS. This number often varies significantly from the BLS numbers...which are due out on Friday.

Do economists even try and predict what ADP is going to release?

(07-03-2024 12:29 PM)BlueDragon Wrote:  Yeah, I see Tommy Boy is conveniently quiet on the subject.

Tries to come on spew what a great job these Imbeciles in the Democratic Party have done. Completely utterly useless BS from him.

Tommy reminds me of a Water Windmill in West Texas that the well has dried up. It still spins and makes a lot of squeaky noises but doesn’t produce anything.

You're VERY dense.

(07-03-2024 01:06 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  We've covered this dozens of time now.

This is the ADP report. It's not the official jobs report released by the BLS. This number often varies significantly from the BLS numbers...which are due out on Friday.

Do economists even try and predict what ADP is going to release?

The Fed has stated very clearly recently that they dont believe the BLS numbers.

(07-03-2024 01:07 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(07-03-2024 12:29 PM)BlueDragon Wrote:  Yeah, I see Tommy Boy is conveniently quiet on the subject.

Tries to come on spew what a great job these Imbeciles in the Democratic Party have done. Completely utterly useless BS from him.

Tommy reminds me of a Water Windmill in West Texas that the well has dried up. It still spins and makes a lot of squeaky noises but doesn’t produce anything.

You're VERY dense.

Any time your I read your gross ignorance it does make me less intelligent.

You simply don’t have the mental capacity to understand how life works.

Brainwashed to the point of just being dull and post scripted on the end of any progressive dogma.

(07-03-2024 01:26 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(07-03-2024 01:06 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  We've covered this dozens of time now.

This is the ADP report. It's not the official jobs report released by the BLS. This number often varies significantly from the BLS numbers...which are due out on Friday.

Do economists even try and predict what ADP is going to release?

The Fed has stated very clearly recently that they dont believe the BLS numbers.

Good for them. WTF does that have to do with anything in this thread or in my reply?

(07-03-2024 01:06 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  We've covered this dozens of time now.

This is the ADP report. It's not the official jobs report released by the BLS. This number often varies significantly from the BLS numbers...which are due out on Friday.

Do economists even try and predict what ADP is going to release?

Correct. What doesnt fit is there has never been this much difference between the ADP and official government report for this long. Some of the difference can be explained away with part time jobs replacing full time employment (which is not good). However, longer stays on unemployment (rising continuing claims numbers) and declining weekly labor hours----would suggest the ADP is probably the report communicating the more accurate economic picture.

(07-03-2024 12:22 PM)No Bull Wrote:  

(07-03-2024 12:16 PM)miko33 Wrote:  It's the prescription needed in order to cool inflation. Pretty much stated in the first paragraph. Later in the piece it gives you exactly the Fed's criteria before they back off from the higher interest rates...which honestly are in line with typical historical rates. We just got very comfortable with unprecedentedly low interest rates from 2010 until 2020.

Quote:Hiring by U.S. companies slowed more than expected in June, pointing to a labor market that is continuing to cool in the face of higher interest rates, according to the ADP National Employment Report released Wednesday morning.

Quote:The weaker-than-expected report comes in the wake of an aggressive tightening campaign by the Federal Reserve, which has raised interest rates to the highest level since 2001. Wall Street is watching the labor market closely for signs that it is finally cooling, so the Fed can pivot to cutting interest rates.

Central bank officials have indicated that rate cuts will begin later this year but cautioned they need to see more evidence that inflation is returning to their 2% target.

So we won’t have jobs and those that do will have stagnating wages but inflation will “cool”.

Sounds wonderful.

There's two ways to bring down inflation:

1) Monetary/fiscal policies designed to remove dollars from the economy - or make it harder to obtain them. Typically done via monetary policy thru interest rate hikes to discourage borrowing which not only reduces consumer spending but could reduce working capital by discouraging companies from utilizing lines of credit. This affects the demand side.

2) Productivity gains normally thru innovation or the discovery of cheaper inputs that weren't previously known. Costs fall due to competition where productivity gains allow companies to undercut each other - which may not only slow inflation but may actually drop prices...like healthy deflation? This affects the supply side

They byproduct of both is stagnate wage growth and possibly fewer jobs if the creative destruction ultimately leads to fewer new jobs being created out of the jobs destroyed thru tech innovation on the supply side or loss of demand due to higher finance costs and job losses for the demand side.

(07-03-2024 01:07 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(07-03-2024 12:29 PM)BlueDragon Wrote:  Yeah, I see Tommy Boy is conveniently quiet on the subject.

Tries to come on spew what a great job these Imbeciles in the Democratic Party have done. Completely utterly useless BS from him.

Tommy reminds me of a Water Windmill in West Texas that the well has dried up. It still spins and makes a lot of squeaky noises but doesn’t produce anything.

You're VERY dense.

And yet he's a rocket scientist compared to you.

The libs are just not having a very good week.

(07-03-2024 01:59 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(07-03-2024 01:26 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(07-03-2024 01:06 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  We've covered this dozens of time now.

This is the ADP report. It's not the official jobs report released by the BLS. This number often varies significantly from the BLS numbers...which are due out on Friday.

Do economists even try and predict what ADP is going to release?

The Fed has stated very clearly recently that they dont believe the BLS numbers.

Good for them. WTF does that have to do with anything in this thread or in my reply?

quite literally everything.

(07-03-2024 03:03 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(07-03-2024 12:22 PM)No Bull Wrote:  

(07-03-2024 12:16 PM)miko33 Wrote:  It's the prescription needed in order to cool inflation. Pretty much stated in the first paragraph. Later in the piece it gives you exactly the Fed's criteria before they back off from the higher interest rates...which honestly are in line with typical historical rates. We just got very comfortable with unprecedentedly low interest rates from 2010 until 2020.

Quote:Hiring by U.S. companies slowed more than expected in June, pointing to a labor market that is continuing to cool in the face of higher interest rates, according to the ADP National Employment Report released Wednesday morning.

Quote:The weaker-than-expected report comes in the wake of an aggressive tightening campaign by the Federal Reserve, which has raised interest rates to the highest level since 2001. Wall Street is watching the labor market closely for signs that it is finally cooling, so the Fed can pivot to cutting interest rates.

Central bank officials have indicated that rate cuts will begin later this year but cautioned they need to see more evidence that inflation is returning to their 2% target.

So we won’t have jobs and those that do will have stagnating wages but inflation will “cool”.

Sounds wonderful.

There's two ways to bring down inflation:

1) Monetary/fiscal policies designed to remove dollars from the economy - or make it harder to obtain them. Typically done via monetary policy thru interest rate hikes to discourage borrowing which not only reduces consumer spending but could reduce working capital by discouraging companies from utilizing lines of credit. This affects the demand side.

2) Productivity gains normally thru innovation or the discovery of cheaper inputs that weren't previously known. Costs fall due to competition where productivity gains allow companies to undercut each other - which may not only slow inflation but may actually drop prices...like healthy deflation? This affects the supply side

They byproduct of both is stagnate wage growth and possibly fewer jobs if the creative destruction ultimately leads to fewer new jobs being created out of the jobs destroyed thru tech innovation on the supply side or loss of demand due to higher finance costs and job losses for the demand side.

The reality is it is very hard to reduce the money supply without triggering recession. The yield curve has now been inverted continuously for one of the longest periods in history. When the yield curve is inverted—long term rates are lower than short term rates. Since banks make money lending by obtaining money a low short term rates and lending it out for longer periods at higher long term rates—-an inverted yield curve makes that model problematic. That’s why an inverted yield curve almost always precedes recession—-that situation retards lending and starves the economy of the dollars it needs to grow. I just don’t see how there is anyway we aren’t looking at a nasty recession after the Fed has left the yield curve inverted for so long.

(07-04-2024 11:27 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(07-03-2024 03:03 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(07-03-2024 12:22 PM)No Bull Wrote:  

(07-03-2024 12:16 PM)miko33 Wrote:  It's the prescription needed in order to cool inflation. Pretty much stated in the first paragraph. Later in the piece it gives you exactly the Fed's criteria before they back off from the higher interest rates...which honestly are in line with typical historical rates. We just got very comfortable with unprecedentedly low interest rates from 2010 until 2020.

Quote:Hiring by U.S. companies slowed more than expected in June, pointing to a labor market that is continuing to cool in the face of higher interest rates, according to the ADP National Employment Report released Wednesday morning.

Quote:The weaker-than-expected report comes in the wake of an aggressive tightening campaign by the Federal Reserve, which has raised interest rates to the highest level since 2001. Wall Street is watching the labor market closely for signs that it is finally cooling, so the Fed can pivot to cutting interest rates.

Central bank officials have indicated that rate cuts will begin later this year but cautioned they need to see more evidence that inflation is returning to their 2% target.

So we won’t have jobs and those that do will have stagnating wages but inflation will “cool”.

Sounds wonderful.

There's two ways to bring down inflation:

1) Monetary/fiscal policies designed to remove dollars from the economy - or make it harder to obtain them. Typically done via monetary policy thru interest rate hikes to discourage borrowing which not only reduces consumer spending but could reduce working capital by discouraging companies from utilizing lines of credit. This affects the demand side.

2) Productivity gains normally thru innovation or the discovery of cheaper inputs that weren't previously known. Costs fall due to competition where productivity gains allow companies to undercut each other - which may not only slow inflation but may actually drop prices...like healthy deflation? This affects the supply side

They byproduct of both is stagnate wage growth and possibly fewer jobs if the creative destruction ultimately leads to fewer new jobs being created out of the jobs destroyed thru tech innovation on the supply side or loss of demand due to higher finance costs and job losses for the demand side.

The reality is it is very hard to reduce the money supply without triggering recession. The yield curve has now been inverted continuously for one of the longest periods in history. When the yield curve is inverted—long term rates are lower than short term rates. Since banks make money lending by obtaining money a low short term rates and lending it out for longer periods at higher long term rates—-an inverted yield curve makes that model problematic. That’s why an inverted yield curve almost always precedes recession—-that situation retards lending and starves the economy of the dollars it needs to grow. I just don’t see how there is anyway we aren’t looking at a nasty recession after the Fed has left the yield curve inverted for so long.

Recessions are almost always a byproduct of tightening monetary supply due to inflation being too high. Ever since Volcker first became chairman of the Fed Reserve in 1979 or 1980, fighting inflation has always been their primary goal vs striving for full employment like Burns pursued under Nixon.

Is this the result of higher interest rates? If so, then that's the plan.