(04-05-2024 10:53 PM)WAChsenburggemeinde Wrote: Had Long Beach State kept playing football beyond 1991, they would have also remained in the Big West in 1995-1996.
My guess is they would have been part of the WAC, Mountain West, and easily been included in the eventual PAC-2 expansion.
They might have even kept the PAC-12/10 alive because instead of San Diego State and SMU being talked about as replacements when USC/UCLA left for the Big Ten, it would have been SDSU and LBSU in order to re-capture the Southern California TV market.
The real break point for Big West football would have been the post-1999 direction of the WAC. If Pacific, Cal State Fullerton, and Long Beach State were still playing football it's probably not enough to save Big West football.
2000
Big West (8) - Arkansas St, Boise St, Idaho, Long Beach St, New Mexico St, North Texas, Pacific, Utah State
WAC (9) - TCU, SMU, Rice, UTEP, Tulsa, Fresno St, San Jose St, Hawaii, Nevada
Sun Belt - non-football
2001
Big West (8) - Arkansas St, Boise St, Idaho, Long Beach St, New Mexico St, North Texas, Pacific, Utah State
WAC (10) - Louisiana Tech, TCU, SMU, Rice, UTEP, Tulsa, Fresno St, San Jose St, Hawaii, Nevada
Sun Belt - non-football; MTSU, Louisiana, ULM play as independents
2005
Big West - non-football
WAC (12)
Coastal - Hawaii, Fresno State, San Jose State, Long Beach St, Pacific, CSU Fullerton
Interior - Louisiana Tech, New Mexico St, Utah State, Boise St, Idaho, Nevada
Sun Belt (8) - Arkansas St, North Texas, MTSU, Louisiana, ULM, FIU, FAU, Troy St
The next big question would be if the WAC's "Final 5" (Idaho, NMSU, CSUF, Pacific, Long Beach St) would be able to hold on past 2012. Louisiana Tech and UTSA still bail for C-USA. Texas State to the Sun Belt probably still happens unless if enough schools like Montana jump to FBS via the WAC.
Even if no one else joins them by 2013, it's probably enough to make FBS independent life comfortable indefinitely. The WAC adds Denver, Seattle, and UT-Arlington as non-football member and keeps on trucking. It's possible BYU might even join them instead of the WCC while an FBS independent. Without Denver, the Summit League likely winds up with Utah Valley and UTRGV. Grand Canyon, Tarleton State, Dixie State/Utah Tech, and Cal Baptist whither away in Division II.
C-USA would still grab NMSU as a full member effective 2023. Pacific joins the WCC and becomes a football-only member of C-USA. Long Beach State, Idaho, and Cal State Fullerton enter into a similar arrangement with the Big West, which also takes non-football Seattle joins the Mountain West as a non-football offset to Hawaii. UT-Arlington joins the Summit, ending the WAC.
The Pac-2 then are faced with the same decision as to either take the entire Mountain West or to try to part it out for a "best-of-the rest" league. If they choose the latter the Mountain West raids C-USA football to restock.
Pac-12
Coastal - Washington State, Oregon State, San Diego St, Fresno St, Boise St, UNLV
Central - UTSA, North Texas, Colorado State, New Mexico, Memphis, Tulane
Mountain West
Western - Hawaii/Seattle, Nevada, San Jose State, Pacific, CSU Fullerton, Long Beach St
Mountain - Utah St, Idaho, Wyoming, Air Force, New Mexico St, UTEP
Big West (non-football)
UC San Diego, UC Irvine, UC Davis, UC Riverside, UC Santa Barbara, Cal Poly, CSU Northridge, CSU Bakersfield, Hawaii