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Will the ACC implode like the PAC or not?
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bryanw1995 Offline
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Post: #61
RE: Will the ACC implode like the PAC or not?
(03-27-2024 07:19 AM)esayem Wrote:  
(03-27-2024 07:07 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  
(03-27-2024 06:53 AM)esayem Wrote:  
(03-27-2024 06:41 AM)True Bearcat Wrote:  
(03-26-2024 10:44 PM)joeben69 Wrote:  LIKE ^^^

B12
Cincinnati
UCF
WVU

AAC
Memphis
Tulane
USF

It is very unlikely the three mentioned from the Big XII move to the ACC, first the cost would be too high, second why would you leave for a water downed league?

Texas, aTM, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Missouri

Which league is watered down again?

I dont think they were referring to the current ACC but the ACC without FSU, Clemson, UNC, Miami, UVA, and probably Duke, and NC ST. The remaining members of the ACC at that point are a lesser collection of teams compared to what the Big XII was before their resurrection.

Sure, I guess if ESPN and FOX have an extra $700m / year between them lying around to accommodate all those moves, not to mention the amount it would cost the schools. Also, the loss ESPN would be taking accommodating all those moves.


This isn’t Monopoly money the networks use. It’s real. UW and UO are about equal value to Clemson and FSU and they’re getting half shares.

Did anyone else notice that ESPN is looking to renegotiate their MLB contract? They're not doing that to pay NC St or Duke an extra $30m a year. I think they're doing that b/c they're making a MAJOR play for the NBA, but it also might just be that they're slashing costs indefinitely to plan for the "imminent" collapse in cable rights fees, which btw has been "imminent" for a very long time now. It's not in Fusion territory of always being 20 years away, but it needs to actually start, you know, declining at some point or I'm gonna call shenanigans.
03-27-2024 12:39 PM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #62
RE: Will the ACC implode like the PAC or not?
(03-27-2024 12:23 PM)ballantyneapp Wrote:  
(03-27-2024 12:03 PM)Yosef181 Wrote:  
(03-27-2024 08:45 AM)ballantyneapp Wrote:  all us non-Acc fans in NC are waiting patiently for the implosion.

On the day UNC leaves and breaks up tobacco road, all the trailer parks and country clubs in NC will have a national day of mourning. Much chablis and camembert, and velveeta and busch light will be consumed in bittersweet nostalgia.

fast forward 5 years and you'll hear scattered chants of SEC-SEC-SEC while a 2-8 UNC football team takes the field in kenan, and UNC basketball is a shadow of itself without the mystique of tobacco road.

at least their student-athletes will get a great edu- oh wait nevermind.

As someone who grew up in the area as an ECU fan before enrolling at App and becoming an App fan, I like the idea of the four N.C. ACC schools not being together.

We're almost there brother. UNC will have a pyrrhic victory of getting a few more shekels but ruin everything that built them.

PARTYTIME!

I’m not sure how much you’d see change really. We already schedule Wake OOC lol
03-27-2024 12:44 PM
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bryanw1995 Offline
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Post: #63
RE: Will the ACC implode like the PAC or not?
(03-27-2024 07:43 AM)Lurker Above Wrote:  
(03-27-2024 07:19 AM)esayem Wrote:  
(03-27-2024 07:07 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  
(03-27-2024 06:53 AM)esayem Wrote:  
(03-27-2024 06:41 AM)True Bearcat Wrote:  It is very unlikely the three mentioned from the Big XII move to the ACC, first the cost would be too high, second why would you leave for a water downed league?

Texas, aTM, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Missouri

Which league is watered down again?

I dont think they were referring to the current ACC but the ACC without FSU, Clemson, UNC, Miami, UVA, and probably Duke, and NC ST. The remaining members of the ACC at that point are a lesser collection of teams compared to what the Big XII was before their resurrection.

Sure, I guess if ESPN and FOX have an extra $700m / year between them lying around to accommodate all those moves, not to mention the amount it would cost the schools. Also, the loss ESPN would be taking accommodating all those moves.


This isn’t Monopoly money the networks use. It’s real. UW and UO are about equal value to Clemson and FSU and they’re getting half shares.

ESPN has already committed to the SEC getting up to 4 schools getting full media shares in the existing contract. Now with the CFP money distributions the SEC schools would make a profit adding FSU and Clemson.

It would cost each SEC school a small amount to add anybody right now due to dilution of bowl money, NCAAT units, etc, and it would also slightly dilute our voting power (which has already gone from 1/10th to 1/16th for the original members). We haven't even added OUT fully quite yet. Is FSU/Clemson's value enough to overcome this? I think the answer is obviously "Yes" or they wouldn't be suing the ACC right now, but they wouldn't offer us any potential payback other than "we're a slightly stronger conference with them in it" until 2034.
03-27-2024 12:47 PM
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jgkojak Offline
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Post: #64
RE: Will the ACC implode like the PAC or not?
The issue with the PAC was population density - there just weren't enough eligible universities to meaningfully carry on with a PAC -

The ACC is very different. I see the ACC taking on some more eastern schools to go with the leftovers (the ACC programs not going to B1G, SEC or B12)

The Big East could grab some of these programs if they give up football
03-27-2024 12:47 PM
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bryanw1995 Offline
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Post: #65
RE: Will the ACC implode like the PAC or not?
(03-27-2024 07:49 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(03-27-2024 07:38 AM)Lurker Above Wrote:  
(03-27-2024 05:01 AM)XLance Wrote:  The new reality is this: Moving to a new conference is not the big money boost that it would have been a couple of years ago. Just look at Washington and Oregon, Stanford, Cal and SMU.
If any schools end up leaving the ACC, would those schools get a full share from the SEC, B1G, or even the Big 12?

In a declining market why would FOX or ESPN want to increase their overhead?
Why would the SEC or B1G choose to make their pots bigger only to dilute any earnings (increases or decreases) in the future?
Would ESPN jeopardize losing it's advertising portal to the mid-west (Notre Dame) if they were to duplicate markets in Florida and South Carolina?
Currently ESPN earns between $175-200 Million in profit per year from the ACCN, which is projected to increase significantly with the addition of in State rates in California and Texas. Do they really want to forego those earnings?

The PAC owned it's own network so the loss of the conference did not affect the B1G or ESPN. ESPN owns the ACCN, so what happens to the ACC directly affects ESPN

So many questions. Mostly from a business side and not directly related to the schools that are involved. Money questions.
Once you make a move...........well, you can't uncook a steak.

There is no declining market for college football.

Evidence is everywhere that college football is consolidating into a P2, and you think the powers that be don't want FSU and Clemson in such P2? Really?

1-If the value of the market was not declining then Oregon and Washington would not have accepted a 1/2 share each from the Big Ten.

2-It's not that the "P2" wouldn't want FSU and Clemson, the question is what would they be willing to pay them? If Oregon and Washington only got a half share each why would you believe that Florida State and Clemson would be able to command a higher price?

Oregon and Washington took what was offered b/c it was more than what the Pac was offering. If they Pac had a $40m contract on ESPN through 2030 then they'd have remained in the Pac. Heck, they probably would have stayed if the Pac had just accepted ESPN's original offer of $30m. However, your claim about the market "declining" ignores the specific facts surrounding the UO/UW situation:

1. The Pac's final offer was $25m a year for 2 years all streaming on Apple TV, hardly appealing
2. The B1G had signed their new deal over a year earlier, and the deal doesn't expire until 2030.

UW/UO and the B1G had ZERO leverage in negotiations with their media partners for UO/UW to make a move. If they'd joined when USCLA did then they'd have been worth a full share and been paid a full share. In 2030 they'll be worth a full share and they'll be paid a full share. But very few programs, I'd say not even half of those that are currently in the P2, could move in the first year of a 7 year contract and get a full share without a contractual obligation for the networks to pay for it.
03-27-2024 12:52 PM
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bryanw1995 Offline
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Post: #66
RE: Will the ACC implode like the PAC or not?
(03-27-2024 08:23 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  
(03-27-2024 07:07 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  The ACC is not going to implode. Though it may change a great deal.
Let say SEC/Big grab 6 and B12 4. They still have everything they need to rebuild.
17-10= 7 leftovers. Add Sd state, Wa State, Or State out west(possibly Col state) to make travel easier.

USF, Tulane, Memphis, you are back to 14, and clearly the best conference outside the p3. Only question would be do you get a little P4 cred? Maybe you could hold on to one auto bid, and bigger share of $$ than the rest of g5.

If they could manage a TV deal 12+ mil get a 8 to10% share of playoff $$ plus one guaranteed auto bid, they still are in a pretty decent position.
I kind of agree with you, except zero ACC schools will go BIG12. Especially as the ACC makes more than the Big12.

FSU/Clemson will pay to leave! (How Much???)

However ESPN has already told the ACC they will exercise the the TV contract through 2036. That is why the ACC has invested in the lawsuits ( would be no need is the deal was over in 2025??) They have to stay at 15 for the contract payout to stay the same.

So the new ACC will be:
ND
1. Miami
2. Louisville
3. Stanford
4. Cal
5. DUKE
6. UNC (#1 Bigten target)
7. NC State
8. GT
9. VT
10. UVA
11. Syracuse
12. BC
13. Wake
14. SMU
15. Pitt

ACC Expansion Targets if membership goes below 15 (14 ACC mbrs plus ND)
-- Any new member will have to come in at lesser shares like Stanford and Cal.
Utah
ASU
USF
UCONN
Oregon St
Washington St
Colorado St

You're gonna need more proof of this than "I just logic'd my way to that result, duh!". Do you have any links supporting your supposition? I can logic my way there btw, but I can also logic my way to "ESPN verbally has assured the ACC that they'll exercise that option, but now they might be having some second thoughts".
03-27-2024 12:55 PM
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bryanw1995 Offline
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Post: #67
RE: Will the ACC implode like the PAC or not?
(03-27-2024 09:06 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(03-27-2024 07:52 AM)LeeNobody Wrote:  I truly believe the GOR will hold and the teams that exit will be paying north of 500 million to do so before 2030. I just don't see the ACC collapsing.

Let's look at the factors that contributed to the PAC Collapse after USCLA and USC announced:
1. The PAC had GOR expiring in the next year
2. Oregon and Washington began arguing for unequal revenue and tried desperately to follow USC and UCLA out the door
2. The PAC did not have a TV deal on the table or credible competition for their TV rights
3. Colorado had dormant rivals in the B12 and used realignment to counter arguments for unequal revenue. Colorado called the meeting to see the progress on the deal, and compared this with the B12 offer with the signing bonus they opted to jump first. They felt urgency for the immediate future and we're worn down by a targeted PR campaign.
4. Oregon and Washington leveraged the B12 offer and the ACC offer to get into the B1G at half shares
5. ACC deal was eventually reworked to get Cal and Stanford

ACC has already shot down unequal revenue distribution. The GOR till 2036. What dormant rivalries do ACC members have in the Big 12? Are the SEC or Big Ten going to be offering half shares for NC State, Pitt, Louisville? Do any ACC teams want to play members of the Big 12? The preference of the remaining ACC schools is likely to keep the league together and reload with like-minded institutions. UCF, Tulane, USF will all be available.

Did West Virginia benefit from joining the Big 12? Was it their first choice? Why does everyone think members of the ACC want to be on an island in a Texas centric conference over a mostly eastern conference with a pair of teams in a major flight hub in San Francisco. The ACC will get to watch how Cincy, UCF, and WVU trend in the next couple of years and I will bet it will be downward as the home football schedules suffer from the lack of regional teams.

There's no way anyone pays $500 million to leave. At that price, they stay. The reality is both sides want a reasonable exit. They will work a deal for substantially less than that. If the ESPN deal holds and they keep Miami and the ACCN in Florida, the value for the duration of the GOR for the ACC is effectively zero. They get no benefit. So any price would be profit. The ACC wants a price nobody but FSU and Clemson will pay. But at $500 million nobody pays it and only ESPN wins. That $442 million of the $572 for the GOR is simply what the ACC pays FSU, not the value of the GOR. It is the value of the TV contract to FSU.

It is interesting that the way the UT/OU exit was written, they paid zero, but honored the GOR. They get no money from the Big 12 or the SEC the last year of the GOR when they are in the SEC. However, ESPN is giving them some undisclosed amount.

I don't know if FSU and Clemson are confident they can win, but the ACC can't be sure either. Both will prefer a settlement.

You just saw A&M pay Jimbo $77m to go sit on his couch until 2031, and you question whether FSU would pay $500m through 2036 to secure the long-term status of their football program? FSU would easily come out on top if their exit fee is only $500m. Clemson, I'm not so sure about b/c they already sell out every single game at Death Valley and their fan enthusiasm is already extremely strong. Perhaps Clemson joined the suit in the expectation that the buyout will be lower, or perhaps they've gotten significant assurances from big money boosters to help them offset their exit feesGoR buyout. Likely both.
(This post was last modified: 03-27-2024 01:02 PM by bryanw1995.)
03-27-2024 01:02 PM
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PlayBall! Offline
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Post: #68
RE: Will the ACC implode like the PAC or not?
(03-27-2024 12:47 PM)jgkojak Wrote:  The Big East could grab some of these programs if they give up football

Or they go FB independent. Optimal option for ND, probably; the Big XII would gladly provide ND with some games each year.
03-27-2024 01:24 PM
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Post: #69
RE: Will the ACC implode like the PAC or not?
(03-27-2024 01:02 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  
(03-27-2024 09:06 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(03-27-2024 07:52 AM)LeeNobody Wrote:  I truly believe the GOR will hold and the teams that exit will be paying north of 500 million to do so before 2030. I just don't see the ACC collapsing.

Let's look at the factors that contributed to the PAC Collapse after USCLA and USC announced:
1. The PAC had GOR expiring in the next year
2. Oregon and Washington began arguing for unequal revenue and tried desperately to follow USC and UCLA out the door
2. The PAC did not have a TV deal on the table or credible competition for their TV rights
3. Colorado had dormant rivals in the B12 and used realignment to counter arguments for unequal revenue. Colorado called the meeting to see the progress on the deal, and compared this with the B12 offer with the signing bonus they opted to jump first. They felt urgency for the immediate future and we're worn down by a targeted PR campaign.
4. Oregon and Washington leveraged the B12 offer and the ACC offer to get into the B1G at half shares
5. ACC deal was eventually reworked to get Cal and Stanford

ACC has already shot down unequal revenue distribution. The GOR till 2036. What dormant rivalries do ACC members have in the Big 12? Are the SEC or Big Ten going to be offering half shares for NC State, Pitt, Louisville? Do any ACC teams want to play members of the Big 12? The preference of the remaining ACC schools is likely to keep the league together and reload with like-minded institutions. UCF, Tulane, USF will all be available.

Did West Virginia benefit from joining the Big 12? Was it their first choice? Why does everyone think members of the ACC want to be on an island in a Texas centric conference over a mostly eastern conference with a pair of teams in a major flight hub in San Francisco. The ACC will get to watch how Cincy, UCF, and WVU trend in the next couple of years and I will bet it will be downward as the home football schedules suffer from the lack of regional teams.

There's no way anyone pays $500 million to leave. At that price, they stay. The reality is both sides want a reasonable exit. They will work a deal for substantially less than that. If the ESPN deal holds and they keep Miami and the ACCN in Florida, the value for the duration of the GOR for the ACC is effectively zero. They get no benefit. So any price would be profit. The ACC wants a price nobody but FSU and Clemson will pay. But at $500 million nobody pays it and only ESPN wins. That $442 million of the $572 for the GOR is simply what the ACC pays FSU, not the value of the GOR. It is the value of the TV contract to FSU.

It is interesting that the way the UT/OU exit was written, they paid zero, but honored the GOR. They get no money from the Big 12 or the SEC the last year of the GOR when they are in the SEC. However, ESPN is giving them some undisclosed amount.

I don't know if FSU and Clemson are confident they can win, but the ACC can't be sure either. Both will prefer a settlement.

You just saw A&M pay Jimbo $77m to go sit on his couch until 2031, and you question whether FSU would pay $500m through 2036 to secure the long-term status of their football program? FSU would easily come out on top if their exit fee is only $500m. Clemson, I'm not so sure about b/c they already sell out every single game at Death Valley and their fan enthusiasm is already extremely strong. Perhaps Clemson joined the suit in the expectation that the buyout will be lower, or perhaps they've gotten significant assurances from big money boosters to help them offset their exit feesGoR buyout. Likely both.

1. That's A&M. I'm not sure anyone else would do that.
2. The difference between selling 80,000 tickets and 100,000 is significant.

Now for FSU, they will know exactly how much extra they will get with the move. Roughly $30-40 million a year until 2036. That's only worth paying so much. The SEC and FSU can wait.
03-27-2024 01:39 PM
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bryanw1995 Offline
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Post: #70
RE: Will the ACC implode like the PAC or not?
(03-27-2024 01:39 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(03-27-2024 01:02 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  
(03-27-2024 09:06 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(03-27-2024 07:52 AM)LeeNobody Wrote:  I truly believe the GOR will hold and the teams that exit will be paying north of 500 million to do so before 2030. I just don't see the ACC collapsing.

Let's look at the factors that contributed to the PAC Collapse after USCLA and USC announced:
1. The PAC had GOR expiring in the next year
2. Oregon and Washington began arguing for unequal revenue and tried desperately to follow USC and UCLA out the door
2. The PAC did not have a TV deal on the table or credible competition for their TV rights
3. Colorado had dormant rivals in the B12 and used realignment to counter arguments for unequal revenue. Colorado called the meeting to see the progress on the deal, and compared this with the B12 offer with the signing bonus they opted to jump first. They felt urgency for the immediate future and we're worn down by a targeted PR campaign.
4. Oregon and Washington leveraged the B12 offer and the ACC offer to get into the B1G at half shares
5. ACC deal was eventually reworked to get Cal and Stanford

ACC has already shot down unequal revenue distribution. The GOR till 2036. What dormant rivalries do ACC members have in the Big 12? Are the SEC or Big Ten going to be offering half shares for NC State, Pitt, Louisville? Do any ACC teams want to play members of the Big 12? The preference of the remaining ACC schools is likely to keep the league together and reload with like-minded institutions. UCF, Tulane, USF will all be available.

Did West Virginia benefit from joining the Big 12? Was it their first choice? Why does everyone think members of the ACC want to be on an island in a Texas centric conference over a mostly eastern conference with a pair of teams in a major flight hub in San Francisco. The ACC will get to watch how Cincy, UCF, and WVU trend in the next couple of years and I will bet it will be downward as the home football schedules suffer from the lack of regional teams.

There's no way anyone pays $500 million to leave. At that price, they stay. The reality is both sides want a reasonable exit. They will work a deal for substantially less than that. If the ESPN deal holds and they keep Miami and the ACCN in Florida, the value for the duration of the GOR for the ACC is effectively zero. They get no benefit. So any price would be profit. The ACC wants a price nobody but FSU and Clemson will pay. But at $500 million nobody pays it and only ESPN wins. That $442 million of the $572 for the GOR is simply what the ACC pays FSU, not the value of the GOR. It is the value of the TV contract to FSU.

It is interesting that the way the UT/OU exit was written, they paid zero, but honored the GOR. They get no money from the Big 12 or the SEC the last year of the GOR when they are in the SEC. However, ESPN is giving them some undisclosed amount.

I don't know if FSU and Clemson are confident they can win, but the ACC can't be sure either. Both will prefer a settlement.

You just saw A&M pay Jimbo $77m to go sit on his couch until 2031, and you question whether FSU would pay $500m through 2036 to secure the long-term status of their football program? FSU would easily come out on top if their exit fee is only $500m. Clemson, I'm not so sure about b/c they already sell out every single game at Death Valley and their fan enthusiasm is already extremely strong. Perhaps Clemson joined the suit in the expectation that the buyout will be lower, or perhaps they've gotten significant assurances from big money boosters to help them offset their exit feesGoR buyout. Likely both.

1. That's A&M. I'm not sure anyone else would do that.
2. The difference between selling 80,000 tickets and 100,000 is significant.

Now for FSU, they will know exactly how much extra they will get with the move. Roughly $30-40 million a year until 2036. That's only worth paying so much. The SEC and FSU can wait.

Check out Kalen DeBoer's buyout. Or perhaps the Michigan St drama from last fall (ultimate buyout could be 0 but could also be about the same as Jimbo's). The details of Jimbo's buyout aren't quite as huge as the first glance, too:

Fisher’s contract explains the buyout’s payment schedule as follows:

“University shall pay twenty five percent (25%) of such amount in a lump sum within (60) days of the effective date of termination of the Agreement, and the remaining balance shall be paid to Coach in equal annual payments beginning one hundred twenty (120) days after the effective date of the termination of this agreement and continuing through the original end date of this Agreement, December 31, 2031.”


https://theathletic.com/5056311/2023/11/...-contract/

Fisher’s contract, which runs through Dec. 31, 2031:

Total buyout: $77,562,500
Lump sum (25%) owed (within 60 days): $19,390,625
Eight payments, starting no later than March 11, 2024 and continuing annually through 2031: $7,271,484


The Athletic Dept is only on the hook for $7.2m per year payments, the Foundation (probably just one or 2 big boosters really) paid the 25% lump sum. $7.2m is a LOT of money, don't get me wrong, but out of ~ $270m budget for the current year it's less than 3% of the total. Ironically, I think that the decision to fire Fisher ultimately led tOSU to target Bjork. I wonder if tOSU has anybody with a very high buyout who could soon find himself on the chopping block...

There's a chart in that article listing other significant potential buyouts:

Kirby: $92m
Fake Cajun: $70m
Franklin: $64.6m
Dabo: $64m
Rhule: $62m
Mark Stoops: $51m
Ryan Day $46m (not in chart but I found it from another source)

These things are designed to make it PAINFUL to fire the coach, but, as we've seen with the ACC's GoR, that doesn't make anything so painful that it wouldn't ever be considered. Franklin or Rhule falling apart over several years would at the last put them both on the hot seat, and it's easy to see either of them getting fired. Fake Cajun? He could get fired tomorrow for all we know. LSU has fired multiple coaches who won National Titles AT LSU over the past decade, and they have as much money as A&M. Do you really think that they'd give Kelly 3 years to turn things around if he stumbled? Do you think that a $77m buyout would save Sarkisian if the Longhorns, despite all that NIL money, turned into a .500 ballclub over several years?

You need to start thinking like an SEC fan. You're not in the Big 12 anymore.
03-27-2024 02:27 PM
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GTFletch Offline
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RE: Will the ACC implode like the PAC or not?
03-27-2024 08:25 PM
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Post: #72
RE: Will the ACC implode like the PAC or not?
It depends on when the ACC takes a hit as to whether it can survive or will implode. If Clemson/FSU win the court case, I believe they will attempt to leave for the SEC ASAP. That being said, there won't be that many schools left who would be slams to leave and bring enough new revenue to the conferences or the schools to make the move worthwhile. Remember both the BIG and B12 just split a conference for lunch. I don't think either is in a big hurry to start picking over the ACC when the ROI may not cover the costs. So if it is only FSU and Clemson leaving, then the ACC will survive and probably back fill with 2 AAC schools.
If the ACC wins the law suit, then the defections will not happen until the GOR is going to expire. At that point I think both the BIG and the SEC expand to 24 by mostly taking the top ACC schools. If for some reason the BIG gets shutout on grabbing its top ACC targets. Say the SEC decides it wants a PAN-Dixie conference and takes FSU, daU, Clemson, UNC, Duke, NCSU, UVa, Vt. That would cause the BIG to pivot and gut the B12 for its Plan B choices. The B12 would still have more better option schools than the ACC. At that point the B12 probably restocks with mostly ACC leftovers and a couple AAC call-ups. That would effectively destroy the ACC with maybe BC and Wake playing the parts of WSU and OSU are playing now in a post PAC-ocalyptic world.
03-27-2024 09:20 PM
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Post: #73
RE: Will the ACC implode like the PAC or not?
(03-27-2024 02:27 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  ....
These things are designed to make it PAINFUL to fire the coach, but, as we've seen with the ACC's GoR, that doesn't make anything so painful that it wouldn't ever be considered. Franklin or Rhule falling apart over several years would at the last put them both on the hot seat, and it's easy to see either of them getting fired. Fake Cajun? He could get fired tomorrow for all we know. LSU has fired multiple coaches who won National Titles AT LSU over the past decade, and they have as much money as A&M. Do you really think that they'd give Kelly 3 years to turn things around if he stumbled? Do you think that a $77m buyout would save Sarkisian if the Longhorns, despite all that NIL money, turned into a .500 ballclub over several years?

You need to start thinking like an SEC fan. You're not in the Big 12 anymore.

The numbers we see put forward about the price of exit ($572M at the upper end) come from estimates by ACC member universities, not the conference. So it's fair to say universities have been doing work on what kind of money they might need depending on how different disputes get resolved. They have been making plans, and suing when ready.

In a worst-case scenario a Florida State or Clemson or UNC might decide to delay a planned exit for one or two years while moving the money around. Even then the school would be getting out early—long before 2036 and any irrecoverable damage the league's tourist-class status could do to the program.
03-27-2024 09:37 PM
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esayem Offline
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RE: Will the ACC implode like the PAC or not?
Everything is pointing to a three tier media payment system—four if you count FCS and non-Big East basketball schools. So following the evidence—like schools voting for Stanford and co.—and the reporting by credible sources like Thamel and Dodd, it appears the top tier doesn’t have much more room to expand.

1st Tier - Big Ten and SEC
2nd Tier - ACC and Big XII
3rd Tier - Big East and G5
4th Tier - Non-football D1 and FCS schools

ND, Carolina, Clemson, and FSU all believe they deserve 1st Tier payments and are finding various ways to close the gap. ND has succeeded, so they need to be pulled off the board. Industry experts are skeptical that Clemson and FSU are going to bring enough to the table to warrant expansion. Neither the Big Ten or SEC needs them to survive; they just signed astronomically large deals.

Everyone has a glass of wine. Clemson and FSU don’t seem to be bringing enough of their own wine to warrant everyone from Alabama to Northwestern sharing their bottles without losing some of their current pour. 04-wine
03-27-2024 09:39 PM
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GTFletch Offline
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Post: #75
RE: Will the ACC implode like the PAC or not?
(03-27-2024 09:39 PM)esayem Wrote:  Everything is pointing to a three tier media payment system—four if you count FCS and non-Big East basketball schools. So following the evidence—like schools voting for Stanford and co.—and the reporting by credible sources like Thamel and Dodd, it appears the top tier doesn’t have much more room to expand.

1st Tier - Big Ten and SEC
2nd Tier - ACC and Big XII
3rd Tier - Big East and G5
4th Tier - Non-football D1 and FCS schools

ND, Carolina, Clemson, and FSU all believe they deserve 1st Tier payments and are finding various ways to close the gap. ND has succeeded, so they need to be pulled off the board. Industry experts are skeptical that Clemson and FSU are going to bring enough to the table to warrant expansion. Neither the Big Ten or SEC needs them to survive; they just signed astronomically large deals.

Everyone has a glass of wine. Clemson and FSU don’t seem to be bringing enough of their own wine to warrant everyone from Alabama to Northwestern sharing their bottles without losing some of their current pour. 04-wine
I bet when the next (Bigten & or SEC) TV contract are due for renewal in 2029/2030ish that there will be some value found in some of the M2 teams to move up. But I agree there is not enough to warrant an add before the TV Contract is up for renewal ( and of course lesser shares for a period of time to join SEC/BIGten)




M2 Combined Rankings
6. Notre Dame -- 279.7
15. Stanford -- 225.7
19. Florida State -- 216.6
20. Clemson -- 211.1
22. Cal -- 202.8
23. North Carolina -- 200.3
26. Miami -- 198.3
28. Pitt -- 181.9
32. Utah -- 178
35. Arizona State -- 172
35. TCU -- 172
37. Oklahoma State -- 171
40. Duke -- 164
41. Colorado -- 162
42. NC State -- 159.7
44. Virginia -- 158.4
46. Virginia Tech -- 157.9
48. Arizona -- 156.6
51. West Virginia -- 150.5
52. Georgia Tech -- 150.1
53. Louisville -- 144.2
55. Iowa State -- 137.1
56. Kansas -- 137
57. Texas Tech -- 136.2
59. Kansas State -- 128.1
60. Boston College -- 127.7
62. Houston -- 123
69. UCF -- 114.4
70. Wake Forest -- 113.9
71. BYU -- 111.8
73. SMU -- 102
(This post was last modified: 03-27-2024 09:49 PM by GTFletch.)
03-27-2024 09:44 PM
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Big12HoopsHeaven Offline
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Post: #76
RE: Will the ACC implode like the PAC or not?
Just like the Pac 12 fans, the ACC fans are misguided trying to attack the Big 12.

The Big 12 is not your enemy.

If the Big 12 picks up ACC schools, it will be to try to help some of you guys out. However, there is limited room on the lifeboat.

As an Arizona fan, I'm ecstatic by how this has turned out. Let USC or Washington try to travel to New Jersey or Champaign.

Altimore is one of the funniest accounts on X. Take it seruously at your peril.

There are some ACC schools it would be fun to play. However, at 16, I'm not sure any of us (Big 10, Big 12, SEC) have much room to free you from that awful contract.
03-28-2024 12:32 AM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #77
RE: Will the ACC implode like the PAC or not?
(03-27-2024 05:01 AM)XLance Wrote:  ... In a declining market why would FOX or ESPN want to increase their overhead? ...

Just look at the big streaming services ... a few big splash tentpoles and then a lot of generic much cheaper catalog genre filler.

ESPN's big challenge is not going to be too few people watching the SEC, it's going to be that as more of its subscription base shifts toward narrower sports-focused bundles, its subscription base will churn more between football seasons. The 2023 Pew Research study on American's interest in sport found 15% of 18-49 year olds follow college or pro sports very/extremely closely, 20% follow sports somewhat closely, and 65% follow not too much or not at all, and the 20% who follow sports somewhat closely seem likely to include a number of people who pay some attention to football, the most popular sport, and then tune out until the next football season.

That's why March Madness is so lucrative, since it gives many of the "somewhat closely" and "not too closely" an event that they can pay attention to for from a few weeks and get a big result and then set it to one side, with the office and other bracket pools really important in giving people a cheering interest in multiple games just because of the impact on their bracket ... and does so just at the time needed to postpone the cut in subscriptions for a narrow sports bundle by a month.

And growing the Big Ten or the SEC to 24 or more schools doesn't really do much to help out with the churn between the end of March Madness and the first Week 0 college football games.
03-28-2024 01:04 AM
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ETSUfan#2 Offline
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Post: #78
RE: Will the ACC implode like the PAC or not?
(03-27-2024 06:55 AM)Yosef181 Wrote:  No. There isn't enough space in the P2 for the ACC to collapse. The Pac-12 teams filled a lot of that space.

There's not enough room among the current P4 conferences for Washington State and Oregon State.

If the ACC lost the right or "right" members, most teams can and will likely find new homes, but some of those homes could well be AAC, Conference USA, or Sunbelt, depending on the team. I never expected Oregon State of all schools to go from power conference member to facing the prospect of ending up in the Mountain West, but it is what it is.

Be honest folks, UNC, FSU, Duke, and Clemson probably aren't gonna loose any sleep if Wake Forest or Georgia Tech wind up in the Sun Belt.
03-28-2024 03:42 AM
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XLance Online
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RE: Will the ACC implode like the PAC or not?
(03-27-2024 09:37 PM)Gitanole Wrote:  
(03-27-2024 02:27 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  ....
These things are designed to make it PAINFUL to fire the coach, but, as we've seen with the ACC's GoR, that doesn't make anything so painful that it wouldn't ever be considered. Franklin or Rhule falling apart over several years would at the last put them both on the hot seat, and it's easy to see either of them getting fired. Fake Cajun? He could get fired tomorrow for all we know. LSU has fired multiple coaches who won National Titles AT LSU over the past decade, and they have as much money as A&M. Do you really think that they'd give Kelly 3 years to turn things around if he stumbled? Do you think that a $77m buyout would save Sarkisian if the Longhorns, despite all that NIL money, turned into a .500 ballclub over several years?

You need to start thinking like an SEC fan. You're not in the Big 12 anymore.

The numbers we see put forward about the price of exit ($572M at the upper end) come from estimates by ACC member universities, not the conference. So it's fair to say universities have been doing work on what kind of money they might need depending on how different disputes get resolved. They have been making plans, and suing when ready.

In a worst-case scenario a Florida State or Clemson or UNC might decide to delay a planned exit for one or two years while moving the money around. Even then the school would be getting out early—long before 2036 and any irrecoverable damage the league's tourist-class status could do to the program.

04-bs
That $572 Million estimate came from Florida State's lawyers. It didn't come from ACC member Universities, it didn't come from the conference, it came from Florida State University.
03-28-2024 04:35 AM
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Gitanole Offline
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RE: Will the ACC implode like the PAC or not?
(03-28-2024 04:35 AM)XLance Wrote:  
(03-27-2024 09:37 PM)Gitanole Wrote:  The numbers we see put forward about the price of exit ($572M at the upper end) come from estimates by ACC member universities, not the conference. So it's fair to say universities have been doing work on what kind of money they might need depending on how different disputes get resolved. They have been making plans, and suing when ready.

In a worst-case scenario a Florida State or Clemson or UNC might decide to delay a planned exit for one or two years while moving the money around. Even then the school would be getting out early—long before 2036 and any irrecoverable damage the league's tourist-class status could do to the program.

04-bs
That $572 Million estimate came from Florida State's lawyers. It didn't come from ACC member Universities, it didn't come from the conference, it came from Florida State University.

My point exactly. Florida State University is an ACC member university. (I used the plural universities to allow for the possibility that Clemson and UNC might also have put forward estimates.)

Congratulations on getting that thought-process boat to within sight of its mental port in Shanghai.

04-cheers
(This post was last modified: 03-28-2024 05:12 AM by Gitanole.)
03-28-2024 04:52 AM
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