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eroc Offline
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Cincinnati at Indiana State
i don't know much about the MVC or Indiana State but they look a the best passing team we'll face. Conversely, i wouldn't be surprised if we're the best defensive and rebounding team that they've faced. We'll likely have the athleticism advantage, and if there's any game where we could eat the competition on the low block, this would be that game.

Too bad Vik is in the dog house. This is a game where he could really exploit a mismatch.

Finally, there were a lot of Minny players slipping on the surface. Hopefully the equipment guys took note of that. Simas seems to have issues staying upright as is. Don't need any added barriers.
 
03-24-2024 03:19 PM
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Cal1362 Offline
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Cincinnati at Indiana State
That game will be all about guarding the 3. The Bearcats will have to defend the 3 line and not worry about someone driving the lane. Bigs will need to defend the lane without filing even if it means giving up a few layups or dumps... Indy St looked like the most dedicated drive and kick team UC will face this season. On the D side they appear to be a man team that jumps into aggressive double teams as soon as a drinker turns their back out slows down, especially non-PGs or guys not accustomed to handling the ball under pressure. If the Cats don't move the ball sharply and fairly accurately it could be not a fun game. Also have to limit TOs again as Indy St lives putting up 3s in transition. Feel pretty comfortable that they'll play 4 guards against UC with Day Day out

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03-24-2024 03:35 PM
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CliftonAve Offline
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RE: Cincinnati at Indiana State
Cream v Jizzle…
 
(This post was last modified: 03-24-2024 03:55 PM by CliftonAve.)
03-24-2024 03:54 PM
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Billy_Bearcat Offline
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RE: Cincinnati at Indiana State
This will be one of the better teams we face this year. They should’ve been in the tourney.
 
03-24-2024 03:59 PM
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bearcatmark Online
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RE: Cincinnati at Indiana State
Interestingly enough, uc lost to them in a close game in one of their two "secret scrimmages".
 
03-24-2024 04:05 PM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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RE: Cincinnati at Indiana State
Thankfully, the game is on ESPN, March 26, 9 PM.
 
03-24-2024 06:32 PM
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vabearcat Offline
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RE: Cincinnati at Indiana State
This will be a very difficult game. Their left-handed guard (Conwell) is a terrific shooter and get to the rim with great skill and quickness.
 
03-24-2024 09:24 PM
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OKIcat Offline
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RE: Cincinnati at Indiana State
I agree with the assessments here; I think this is a tough matchup for UC in a very hostile environment.

Generally, I think this UC team has handled hostile fans in road games pretty well. But it's the skill and discipline of this ISU squad that scares me. And if Day Day is the great defender, his size and defense will be sorely missed against ISU's smaller guards.

One of my greatest concerns about this UC team has been runs of consecutive empty offensive possession. It happened against Bradley in the second half. I think UC went 5 or 6 in a row, throwing the ball away with an unforced turnover here, an ill advised 3 point attempt there, and drawing a foul but missing the free throws. If that happens tomorrow, I expect ISU to capitalize on UC's empty trips down the court.
 
03-25-2024 07:36 AM
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Cal1362 Offline
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RE: Cincinnati at Indiana State
(03-25-2024 07:36 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  I agree with the assessments here; I think this is a tough matchup for UC in a very hostile environment.

Generally, I think this UC team has handled hostile fans in road games pretty well. But it's the skill and discipline of this ISU squad that scares me. And if Day Day is the great defender, his size and defense will be sorely missed against ISU's smaller guards.

One of my greatest concerns about this UC team has been runs of consecutive empty offensive possession. It happened against Bradley in the second half. I think UC went 5 or 6 in a row, throwing the ball away with an unforced turnover here, an ill advised 3 point attempt there, and drawing a foul but missing the free throws. If that happens tomorrow, I expect ISU to capitalize on UC's empty trips down the court.

This will be a tough matchup and UC can't underestimate the David vs Goliath aspect of the game either. I'm sure they're looking forward to trying to add a Big XII scalp next to the B1G one they just got.

But IMO, one of the major things to watch for in this game will be if Jizzle's offensive prowess is enough to limit UC to only one of those droughts per half or maybe one for the game vs whatever dropoff, if any, comes on the defensive side with not having Day Day available. The offense seems to run less bumpy with Jizzle in than with Day Day but is the supposed defensive hit worth it? In most every game you watch, each team seems to go through at least one 3 or 4 minute span without scoring, and I'm hopeful/confident, UC will hold ISU to at least one as well. Hopefully the Bearcats can capitalize more on ISUs dry spells than the reverse and UC's offense doesn't shoot itself in the foot with careless TOs and non-high basketball IQ plays

The other spot Day Day's presence would have helped is that ISU doesn't seem to have a ton of depth and having to contain drives from DD and JJ would have put a lot of pressure to not foul on ISUs guards. IMO that is still a significant game plan to utilize as long as the drives are smart and not just blind crashes toward the hoop. Drive and feed the bigs as ISUs front line seems thin. But that could mean more zone but I'll take that chance if UC can get ISU in foul trouble fairly early. I'm still optimistic that this team is finding itself when it matters most and hopefully everyone is locked in for this game and whatever remains of this postseason run.
 
03-25-2024 09:20 AM
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SinceHeWillWin Offline
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RE: Cincinnati at Indiana State
I'm looking forward to this game. I would have preferred playing a P5 opponent, but ISU is an interesting test. They may not be in a big-time conference or sign 3-4 star athletes, but any team that can get to 30 wins in a season has got something figured out. KenPom has UC at 38th and ISU at 40th, this should be a great game of basketball.

ISU went to overtime against Bradley and we had Bradley outmatched pretty handily. I know our fans are hedging their expectations for this game (understandably so) but how many other Big 12 teams would be shaking in their boots for a road game at Indiana State University? I'd love to see this be our chance to flex some Big 12 muscle in the region. I hope that Wes can sell this team on the merits of a first-ever NIT Championship for the school, it would certainly be something to build on.

As for the keys to the game, anyone else care to chip in? I'll say three keys:

1) Longer offensive possessions - This team has been plagued with anemic starts for most of the season. Then when we eventually get the lead, we melt it away with 10 second possessions with very little passing and a hastily attempted 3 pt shot. We have size on these guys and the ball should go inside every possession (even if it gets kicked back out for a 3.)

2) Rebounding - We've got size and experience on the inside against these guys. They shoot well, which is all the more reason not to give them multiple attempts per possession. We don't shoot well, all the more reason to give ourselves as many attempts as possible. I suspect we'll need to have 15-20 more shot attempts on the game to have a win.

3) New zone alignment - It feels like we've roasted from 3 point corner shots lately. Our zone scheme seems to be really simply to pull defense away from the corner and then kick it back to the corner for an easy 3. Our defenders are tough and have an extra day of rest, perhaps some man-to-man in-your-face style defense on their guards?

In short, we need to be at least +10 on the boards, +15 on shot attempts, and hold them to less than 50% overall shooting and 35% three-point attempts (they average higher than that on both.)
 
03-25-2024 09:33 AM
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BearcatMan Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Cincinnati at Indiana State
Yeah, this one doesn't strike me as particularly winnable...in all of the predictive metrics Indiana State was a top 25 team most of the season and have one of, if not the, best offenses in the country.
 
03-25-2024 09:46 AM
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CincyBro Offline
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RE: Cincinnati at Indiana State
LMAO.....You would think reading this thread that Larry Bird is suiting up on Tues.....04-cheers
 
03-25-2024 09:51 AM
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CincyBro Offline
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RE: Cincinnati at Indiana State
Let's see, last year we couldn't beat Utah Valley for chrissakes and this year most don't think we can beat Ind. St., something then just isn't right in Clifton......04-cheers
 
(This post was last modified: 03-25-2024 11:54 AM by CincyBro.)
03-25-2024 09:54 AM
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Bruce Monnin Offline
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RE: Cincinnati at Indiana State
My sole prediction for the game:

That Allstate commercial with Larry Bird runs at least 8 times.
 
03-25-2024 09:56 AM
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OKIcat Offline
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RE: Cincinnati at Indiana State
Someone forgot to tell high majors KY, BYU, and Auburn that you don't lose to mid-majors Oakland, Duquesne, and Yale in March Madness.

There are metrics that suggest this will be a challenging game for the Bearcats in a hostile environment. Neither that XII patch nor Jordan logo on UC's jerseys guarantee a win. ISU is the #1 seed for a reason.

I want the Bearcats to win. But I won't disrespect this opponent or its conference. We've been on the wrong side of that argument in the past.
 
03-25-2024 10:28 AM
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bearcatmark Online
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RE: Cincinnati at Indiana State
Indiana State might be the best shooting team in the country.

12th in 3 point %
1st in 2 point percentage
2nd in Free throw percentage (80.5%!!!)

That adds up to 1st in effective FG percentage
 
(This post was last modified: 03-25-2024 10:36 AM by bearcatmark.)
03-25-2024 10:36 AM
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skyblade Online
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RE: Cincinnati at Indiana State
The Avila vs Bandaogo matchup may determine who wins the game.

Indiana State doesn't have much depth and they don't have much size outside Avila, if Bandaogo can wear him down beat him up rebounding, ISU is likely to struggle. Get Avila into foul trouble and ISU is in trouble.

On the other hand, Aziz has consistently struggled to defend the perimeter all season. We are going to see a lot of pick-and-pop, as Avila can shoot threes and make them at a high rate. If Aziz struggles to defend the perimeter, we better hope Vik, Reynolds or Ody are up to the task and can also put pressure on the boards.

ISU's rebounding splits are kind of crazy, they are one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country (ranked in the 300's), but in the top 20 at defensive rebounding. I wonder if most teams are scared of them in transition and don't go hard on the offensive glass. With their lack of overall size, I like our chances on the glass, I doubt ISU has faced a team this season with the overall size, length and rebounding ability of UC.
 
(This post was last modified: 03-25-2024 01:03 PM by skyblade.)
03-25-2024 11:37 AM
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CincyBro Offline
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RE: Cincinnati at Indiana State
(03-25-2024 10:36 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Indiana State might be the best shooting team in the country.

12th in 3 point %
1st in 2 point percentage
2nd in Free throw percentage (80.5%!!!)

That adds up to 1st in effective FG percentage

Do you think that's the case if they had to shoot against UH, Iowa St., etc......I think not.......04-cheers
 
03-25-2024 11:55 AM
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skyblade Online
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RE: Cincinnati at Indiana State
(03-25-2024 11:55 AM)CincyBro Wrote:  
(03-25-2024 10:36 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Indiana State might be the best shooting team in the country.

12th in 3 point %
1st in 2 point percentage
2nd in Free throw percentage (80.5%!!!)

That adds up to 1st in effective FG percentage

Do you think that's the case if they had to shoot against UH, Iowa St., etc......I think not.......04-cheers

They had an excellent performance against Michigan State, who Bartorvik has ranked at 9 on defense. Their offense seems to have performed well in almost all their games, their defense not so much.

When they lost to Alabama and MSU, they got crushed on the boards. MSU rebounded 44% of their misses and Alabama only slightly worse at 40%. ISU only had a 13.3 OR% vs Alabama and 23.5% vs MSU.

I'm hoping we can replicate the same sort of performance. ISU is probably going to shoot better than us percentage wise, but if we get 10+ more shots, it should balance out in our favor.

They don't rebound well and they don't turn other teams over. As long as we play hard and don't shoot ourselves in the foot, we have a good chance.
 
03-25-2024 01:16 PM
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eroc Offline
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RE: Cincinnati at Indiana State
(03-25-2024 11:37 AM)skyblade Wrote:  The Avila vs Bandaogo matchup may determine who wins the game.

Indiana State doesn't have much depth and they don't have much size outside Avila, if Bandaogo can wear him down beat him up rebounding, ISU is likely to struggle. Get Avila into foul trouble and ISU is in trouble.

On the other hand, Aziz has consistently struggled to defend the perimeter all season. We are going to see a lot of pick-and-pop, as Avila can shoot threes and make them at a high rate. If Aziz struggles to defend the perimeter, we better hope Vik, Reynolds or Ody are up to the task and can also put pressure on the boards.

ISU's rebounding splits are kind of crazy, they are one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country (ranked in the 300's), but in the top 20 at defensive rebounding. I wonder if most teams are scared of them in transition and don't go hard on the offensive glass. With their lack of overall size, I like our chances on the glass, I doubt ISU has faced a team this season with the overall size, length and rebounding ability of UC.

This feels like this will come down to how well we handle Avila. if they are as good at passing and shooting as everyone says they are, being able to contain Avila and gum up some of the spacing and passing will help us contest and hit the defensive boards.

Jizzle and the other wings being able to fight over screens will also be huge. Running them off the three point line, contesting their twos, and limiting their second chance points is how we win games. No different with these guys.
 
03-25-2024 01:59 PM
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