This is seeming more like an inevitability.

This post by a Western-Based Pac 12 reporter, John Canzano, didn't mention Air Force as a Pac 12 target. However, the Pac 2 is currently reeling from getting such a meager CFP payout that they're going to need to move sooner than later.

So what about Air Force? It's widely known that they applied to the American after the Big 12 expanded. They were in part motivated by the security of the AAC's long-term ESPN contract. Since then, Army has joined Navy in that conference, and the Air Force leadership has long made it known that they would value sharing a conference with their true peers.

With the MWC due to renegotiate a new TV deal - as they are about to be raided - it seems like an Air Force move to the American Conference is more of an issue of "when?" than "if..."

That would cement the American above the new Pac, imo.

Linky dinky: Canzano claims that 4-5 MWC schools are set to depart for the PAC by June 30th!!

Huge news. John Canzano is the #1 source in realignment.

It would be nice to see Air Force get a tournament bid in basketball in the Mountain West before leaving for the AAC but yeah this seems inevitable. Don't see it happening over the summer though as Canzano claims.

I feel like nobody in MWC or AAC is going to move until they see what happens with Florida St.

If Florida St announces it is leaving the ACC, that could start a chain reaction that opens up some spots in the ACC possibly for USF, Tulane, Memphis.

If FSU does the math, and decides to stay in the ACC, then that might start a different chain reaction. This might finally motivate the best of MWC and AAC to join with WSU and OSU to form a best of the rest conference under the PAC-12 umbrella. But only if this expanded PAc-12 could get a bigger CFP share and media deal than the rest of the G5.

none of it makes any sence
new Pac is not gonna get 10% of CFP money
the exit fee's are gonna make it a risky deal

(03-16-2024 01:50 AM)templefootballfan Wrote:  none of it makes any sence
new Pac is not gonna get 10% of CFP money
the exit fee's are gonna make it a risky deal

Yep. In fact there's no indication that anything in the deal would entitle a reconstituted Pac conference to any CFP money. Rather it treats WSU and OSU as independents and pays them less than G5 conference members:

"Washington State and Oregon State are slated to earn just $360,000 as independents in the new contract -- one-fifth of what the Group of 5 schools would make per year in the new agreement."

I'm guessing the only way a reconstituted Pac could qualify for an allocation of CFP money on par with the G5 conferences would be for the MWC to sign over its allocation to the Pac -- which would only happen if all of the MWC's members were invited into the Pac.

(03-16-2024 01:17 AM)goofus Wrote:  I feel like nobody in MWC or AAC is going to move until they see what happens with Florida St.

If Florida St announces it is leaving the ACC, that could start a chain reaction that opens up some spots in the ACC possibly for USF, Tulane, Memphis.

If FSU does the math, and decides to stay in the ACC, then that might start a different chain reaction. This might finally motivate the best of MWC and AAC to join with WSU and OSU to form a best of the rest conference under the PAC-12 umbrella. But only if this expanded PAc-12 could get a bigger CFP share and media deal than the rest of the G5.

I can't see any of the nine conferences that have signed onto the CFP deal foregoing a dime of their allocated CFP money to fund a share for a Johnny-come-lately reconstituted Pac. The exception would be if the entire MWC membership were invited into the Pac, in which case the MWC would have no issue with reassigning its allocation to the reconstituted Pac.

Yes it's pretty obvious that ESPN and the CFP don't believe the PAC-12 exists as a real conference in 2026. The original article ESPN posted, about the new CFP contract, treated WSU and OSU as after thoughts. Almost completely forgotten. The article mentioned the 9 football conferences, not 10. The message is clear. The Pac-12 is done.

This thread is much ado about a school John Canzano never mentions.

The item linked is simply a Reddit post saying this:

John claims he heard “not from either OSU or WSU, but from another school possibly involved that things are in motion to add four or five Mountain West schools by the end of June if they haven’t found a P4 landing spot by then.”
....
AAC schools—whoever the ACC leaves behind this summer—will take the last remaining spots.
.....

John Canzano personally is not even predicting this. He's just reporting something he was told.

(03-16-2024 01:17 AM)goofus Wrote:  If FSU does the math, and decides to stay in the ACC

Not even Poor Jim Phillips believes that'll happen

I just don’t see this happening. Anything short of a full merger or the dissolution of the MWC (adding 9 or 10) is going to result in transfer of the PAC 2 war chest to the MWC remnants.

There’s also no provision for CFP revenue for the PAC—the MWC is in that document but from what we’ve been told, it presumes Wash St and Ore St will be Indy.

This post is extremely misleading, for a few reasons:

1. This is not news. There's no news article here. It's a link to a post on Reddit where a random person guesses who Pac targets would be if they expand. Air Force isn't in the list because the random Reddit user didn't put them in the list. There have been real articles written by actual journalists that have Air Force on the list of MWC schools that WSU and OSU would like to align with. That list is "SDSU, Boise State, Colorado State, Air Force, UNLV, and Fresno State."

Source (San Diego Tribune): https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/spo...ger-pac-12

2. If Canzano said this, it's still Canzano. That guy swore the Pac wouldn't die, that SDSU and SMU were in. He has pushed a Pac rebuild since USC and UCLA left.

3. The Reddit post claims John heard about Pac expansion "not from OSU or WSU", but from a school that MIGHT be involved. It's quite a stretch for the random Reddit user to write "might be involved", then list specific schools like it's a done deal.

4. There's no mention of Air Force at all in the Reddit post. I'm not sure what OP is looking at when mentioning Air Force, besides a Twitter response from a random person. I don't have an issue with listing your own ideas, but it's misleading to state your ideas as facts that will definitely happen.

5. It's not "widely known" tha Air Force applied to the American Athletic Conference. I've never seen that reported anywhere. If you have, link it, because I don't believe you.


I clicked on this expecting to find news on conference realignment, not guesses from random people on Reddit and Twitter.

End thread.

(03-16-2024 07:05 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(03-16-2024 01:17 AM)goofus Wrote:  If FSU does the math, and decides to stay in the ACC

Not even Poor Jim Phillips believes that'll happen

It's possible, but not desirable.

If neither the SEC or B1G has given FSU a wink and a nod, the 'Noles would be foolish to withdraw from the ACC knowing their only stable destination might be the Big 12.

Perhaps FSU was hoping that either conference would secretly guarantee the 'Noles a loan like the B1G did with Maryland, IDK.

It's just not prudent for a State agency to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to get out of the ACC with no guarantee of return of principal.

(03-16-2024 07:39 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-16-2024 07:05 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(03-16-2024 01:17 AM)goofus Wrote:  If FSU does the math, and decides to stay in the ACC

Not even Poor Jim Phillips believes that'll happen

It's possible, but not desirable.

If neither the SEC or B1G has given FSU a wink and a nod, the 'Noles would be foolish to withdraw from the ACC knowing their only stable destination might be the Big 12.

Perhaps FSU was hoping that either conference would secretly guarantee the 'Noles a loan like the B1G did with Maryland, IDK.

It's just not prudent for a State agency to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to get out of the ACC with no guarantee of return of principal.

The reason the BIG gave Maryland a loan is because their atheltic department was in debt. Same with Rutgers.

(03-16-2024 12:35 AM)Big12HoopsHeaven Wrote:  This is seeming more like an inevitability.

This post by a Western-Based Pac 12 reporter, John Canzano, didn't mention Air Force as a Pac 12 target. However, the Pac 2 is currently reeling from getting such a meager CFP payout that they're going to need to move sooner than later.

So what about Air Force? It's widely known that they applied to the American after the Big 12 expanded. They were in part motivated by the security of the AAC's long-term ESPN contract. Since then, Army has joined Navy in that conference, and the Air Force leadership has long made it known that they would value sharing a conference with their true peers.

With the MWC due to renegotiate a new TV deal - as they are about to be raided - it seems like an Air Force move to the American Conference is more of an issue of "when?" than "if..."

That would cement the American above the new Pac, imo.

Linky dinky: Canzano claims that 4-5 MWC schools are set to depart for the PAC by June 30th!!

Not going to happened. The PAC 2 made an agreement not to raid the MWC for two years. Gloria hogtied them to the agreement.

There will be one less conference. MW --> PAC-12 soon, hopefully with all members. The AFA will not want to increase their travel-time more by jumping to the AAC. However, they'd likely listen now to the Big XII if we were calling (probably aren't again, at least not for some years).

(03-16-2024 07:50 AM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(03-16-2024 07:39 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-16-2024 07:05 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(03-16-2024 01:17 AM)goofus Wrote:  If FSU does the math, and decides to stay in the ACC

Not even Poor Jim Phillips believes that'll happen

It's possible, but not desirable.

If neither the SEC or B1G has given FSU a wink and a nod, the 'Noles would be foolish to withdraw from the ACC knowing their only stable destination might be the Big 12.

Perhaps FSU was hoping that either conference would secretly guarantee the 'Noles a loan like the B1G did with Maryland, IDK.

It's just not prudent for a State agency to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to get out of the ACC with no guarantee of return of principal.

The reason the BIG gave Maryland a loan is because their atheltic department was in debt. Same with Rutgers.

If Florida State has to pay hundreds of millions of dollars to get out of the ACC, their athletic department is going to be in debt too.

BTW Rutgers and Maryland are still in debt even with B1G money.

(03-16-2024 07:20 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I just don’t see this happening. Anything short of a full merger or the dissolution of the MWC (adding 9 or 10) is going to result in transfer of the PAC 2 war chest to the MWC remnants.

There’s also no provision for CFP revenue for the PAC—the MWC is in that document but from what we’ve been told, it presumes Wash St and Ore St will be Indy.

I don't think it would matter with a merger. no matter the direction. One way Pac absorbs all that is MWC incl G5 status or MWC absorbs Pac and keeps Pac $ and G5 status. If they wanted Pac 12 name MWC can take in Pac but keep the Pac name.

(03-16-2024 07:05 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(03-16-2024 01:17 AM)goofus Wrote:  If FSU does the math, and decides to stay in the ACC

Not even Poor Jim Phillips believes that'll happen

(03-16-2024 08:17 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(03-16-2024 07:20 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I just don’t see this happening. Anything short of a full merger or the dissolution of the MWC (adding 9 or 10) is going to result in transfer of the PAC 2 war chest to the MWC remnants.

There’s also no provision for CFP revenue for the PAC—the MWC is in that document but from what we’ve been told, it presumes Wash St and Ore St will be Indy.

I don't think it would matter with a merger. no matter the direction. One way Pac absorbs all that is MWC incl G5 status or MWC absorbs Pac and keeps Pac $ and G5 status. If they wanted Pac 12 name MWC can take in Pac but keep the Pac name.

The advantage to keeping the PAC shell is that any lingering NCAA tournament credits for 2027-2029 would stay with the PAC.