From D1 Baseball...
https://d1baseball.com/analysis/postseas...1714713877
AUTOMATIC QUALIFIER CHANGES FROM LAST WEEK:
Atlantic Sun: Austin Peay replaces Kennesaw State
CAA: College of Charleston replaces UNC Wilmington
Conference USA: Louisiana Tech replaces Dallas Baptist
Summit: Omaha replaces North Dakota State
CAA (2 bids)
SAFELY IN: None
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): College of Charleston, Northeastern
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): UNC Wilmington
One change from last week: College of Charleston replaces UNCW as our projected automatic qualifier, and the Seahawks fall just outside our field of 64.
Wilmington didn’t do anything to play its way out over the last week — it rebounded from a bad midweek loss to Charleston Southern by winning two of three on the road against William & Mary, keeping it tied atop the standings at 14-4. Our field was assembled before UNCW won a Tuesday road game at NC State, which helped it climb to No. 45 in the RPI — up eight spots from a week ago. We flipped our AQ pick to Charleston mostly because CofC won a head-to-head series on the road at UNCW, and the Cougars won another nice road series at Campbell last weekend, keeping them tied with the Seahawks atop the standings. You can make a strong argument for UNCW as the at-large team over Northeastern, particularly because UNCW won a head-to-head road series at Northeastern just two weeks ago and leads the Huskies by one game in the standings. We kept Northeastern in our field because history shows us how much value the committee places on RPI, and Northeastern still has a significant edge there, ranking No. 32. That advantage was reduced somewhat by UNCW’s big win at NC State, however. Charleston is a bit farther back at No. 52, but the Cougars are surging and they own that head-to-head tiebreaker over UNCW, so we like their chances to win the regular season, which could help offset a borderline RPI.
Ultimately, all three teams feel regional-caliber, and it’s worth noting that all three are top 50 in the RPI, but the order is flipped: Charleston ranks highest at No. 23, followed by UNCW (No. 42) and Northeastern (No. 48). We are skeptical that the committee will ultimately award three bids to the No. 12 ranked RPI conference, so we felt obliged to cut one of these three. And we cut UNCW solely because it trails Northeastern in the RPI, a tool we know the committee places great stock in. But all three of these teams are very much in the running for at-large spots, and the final month will determine who winds up on the right side of the bubble.
