(02-05-2024 11:00 AM)Kruciff Wrote:  There are macro-economic consequences to holding artificially lower federal interest rates, many of which we are still seeing the effects of now in the economy. I read This Article from 2019, immediately following Trump's interest rate cuts and amid his calls to keep cutting the interest rate "possibly below 0%" as I recall him saying in a tweet once. A lot of the things they were speculating are happening today. It's not as simple as flipping a switch and suddenly interest rates are low.

Because inflation was low. Funny how the fed had higher interest rates under Trump with 1.5% inflation and lower interest rates under Biden* with 8% inflation.

The current economy is built on all of the mandatory investment handled by the managers of 401ks and 403bs (as pensions are largely gone). That's a biweekly or monthly influx of cash spread across the market that provides a baseline of retreat for the large donors should they need one. When interest of the common investors who trade beyond the elections made for them in those employee withholdings for retirement plans begins to flag the talking heads on the tube start pushing and selling and the uber wealthy will spike a few stocks to keep the suckers in.

This all works because of a little tool called the ETF. In the past when stocks were outperforming their data savvy traders would hedge with commodities. Commodities were reasonably safe either due to their normal scarcity (gold) or their consumable natures, crops and pork bellies, etc. Thanks to the ETF it became possible to manipulate the value of scarce items by creating certificates of ownership for things which had not been mined thereby increasing the theoretical volume of scarce commodities and controlling their prices with paper instead of product.

There are generally three holes in which you can place your money: equities, commodities, treasuries. Greenspan kept the economy going by squelching treasuries through interest rates, and allowing ETFs to control supply in commodities thereby essentially putting his two hands over two holes forcing cash into equities.

This time around the interest rates are still artificially low for the levels of inflation and commodities are still showing artificially high supplies due to ETFs. So the two hands are still over the same two holes. Only this time actual full time benefit paying jobs are in decline. Manufacturing is up because some companies have regained some modicum of commons sense are bringing their production back from overseas.

Inflation can't be controlled as it was in the past through low interest rates. Why? Too many cheap dollars have been printed to buy votes for the Democrats. Open borders, with cash giveaways to illegals means more spending to prop up corporate stock values, but it means less trust in the dollar abroad so working American citizens are paying even more for groceries and fuel (2 life essential items not figured in the core inflation rate) and they are doing so because their money is worth less abroad.

This is a much bigger economic crisis brewing because when the treasuries are no longer artificially constrained their interest rates will soar to attract money to pay the treasury back and the collapse of the dollar abroad will be multiplied by the cost of loans or anything here. This is why we have some who compare the situation to that which precipitated the Weimar collapse.

But the young people born in the late 70's and 80's don't believe it because "It's never happened before and interest rates are historically low." Both viewpoints are utter bullcrap. In the late 50's and early 60's the problem was stagnancy following WWII and Korea. 2.75 to 3% home mortgages were available. This was natural. Gasoline during fuel pump wars between brands could dip to as low as 17 cents a gallon, and normally was in the 20 cent range. Heck when I got my first car I was paying around 27 to 32 cents a gallon. Krystal (think White Castle up North) hamburgers were a nickel. You could get 20 of them to feed the family for a dollar. Cokes were a dime and a hair cut was 50 cents. My father was in tall cotton as a Jet fighter pilot and earned close to $200 a month.

Now things cost you out the ass and interest rates are still artificially low. The first "New" care I bought was considered upscale and I paid 5,400 dollars for it total. The Mustang I was looking at was 3,700 dollars. And those prices were grossly inflated from the early 60's cost of things. Why? Viet Nam kickstarted the inflation because it kickstarted military spending. Toss in the Great Society an LBJ giveaway program which outstripped the ability of Silver to back the dollar, and was the first time the SSI fund was ever borrowed against which drained a large cash reserve within the budget and boom we were off an running as to how corporations profited from free give away money to groups of the poor who spent instead of saved because it was enough to improve their living conditions but not enough to really change them. The Democrats have been buying votes and keep the poor impoverished ever since. Hell if the poor actually did improve their status they might become middle class and vote against the Dems because they would be paying taxes. That can't happen.

And we've never hit bottom thinking of the X'ers and those even younger is because they didn't know the want of the great depression. Some of my family didn't have money but lived fine because of the farm , the ponds, and the woods they owned were they hunted. And the farm wasn't just agriculture, it was chickens, pigs, and cows for milk and goats to eat the weeds in the fallow acreage.

Hells coming folks because when it hits costs don't go down because the dollar has nada backing it except our nuclear arsenal which the world no longer sees as the largest threat because our leaders kowtow to China. In the next one nobody will have anything because most people have mortgages and will lose their homes to the mega banks, their jobs due to the downturn, and everything will cost more because the world is competing for it.

And that children is reality.[/align]

My advice is quit electing sycophants who work for the corporations which think they run the world. They aren't working for you, not even one little bit and they don't give a damn what happens to you. And those ******** are in both parties.

(02-05-2024 11:11 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(02-05-2024 11:00 AM)Kruciff Wrote:  There are macro-economic consequences to holding artificially lower federal interest rates, many of which we are still seeing the effects of now in the economy. I read This Article from 2019, immediately following Trump's interest rate cuts and amid his calls to keep cutting the interest rate "possibly below 0%" as I recall him saying in a tweet once. A lot of the things they were speculating are happening today. It's not as simple as flipping a switch and suddenly interest rates are low.

Because inflation was low. Funny how the fed had higher interest rates under Trump with 1.5% inflation and lower interest rates under Biden* with 8% inflation.

Yes. Funny how that happens. Low interest rates then, high inflation now. Very curious

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Why not go back to 2009 then?

(02-05-2024 11:20 AM)JRsec Wrote:  My advice is quit electing sycophants who work for the corporations which think they run the world. They aren't working for you, not even one little bit and they don't give a damn what happens to you. And those ******** are in both parties.

Completely agree with that. But the rest of your post basically puts the blame solely on Democrats, which I don't believe. It is squarely on both parties as they are both huge on spending, just different on where that money goes. Nobody has been fiscally conservative in my lifetime, which is the late 70s born people you mention as well.

(02-05-2024 12:29 PM)mlb Wrote:  

(02-05-2024 11:20 AM)JRsec Wrote:  My advice is quit electing sycophants who work for the corporations which think they run the world. They aren't working for you, not even one little bit and they don't give a damn what happens to you. And those ******** are in both parties.

Completely agree with that. But the rest of your post basically puts the blame solely on Democrats, which I don't believe. It is squarely on both parties as they are both huge on spending, just different on where that money goes. Nobody has been fiscally conservative in my lifetime, which is the late 70s born people you mention as well.

The giveaway checks are flat out vote buying. It's certainly not Capitalism at work. As to the little variance in Republican and Democratic function that began with PAC money expanding beyond a few sanctioned groups which weren't corporate in nature but special interests of the philanthropic kind. Since then PAC money has been used by corporate multinationals to simply outspend what the public could give and buy elections. Corporations learned long ago that money given away by the government is paid for by taxpayers and almost always winds up in the corporation's pockets. The money they give to campaigns is charged back through the networks they own so they recoup that money as well. Until PAC money is ended "We the People" and I mean all of us in spite of differences, have no voice. We may be pandered to, but we have no leverage or control. That is why your generation sees no difference in the two parties. Both are owned by the corporations and the Republicans are used to build defense budgets and Dems are used to further socialism which allows the collective corporate ownership of private land to expand. Manipulating currency values and policies has always been a tool for the top 3 to 5% of the wealthy. In WWI Germany had a plot to kidnap a portion of those in the United States from Jekyll Island where they had summer homes in an exclusive contained Island setting reachable only by a ferry. That's why those homes were abandoned, and the Island became a state park. So, none of this is new. But until PAC money expanded to include corporate donations it remained within the voter's control. We need to take that back as Democrats, Republicans and independents, and make sure our candidates work for us, not them. And there is the great struggle of your life and all of those your age.

(02-05-2024 11:22 AM)Kruciff Wrote:  

(02-05-2024 11:11 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(02-05-2024 11:00 AM)Kruciff Wrote:  There are macro-economic consequences to holding artificially lower federal interest rates, many of which we are still seeing the effects of now in the economy. I read This Article from 2019, immediately following Trump's interest rate cuts and amid his calls to keep cutting the interest rate "possibly below 0%" as I recall him saying in a tweet once. A lot of the things they were speculating are happening today. It's not as simple as flipping a switch and suddenly interest rates are low.

Because inflation was low. Funny how the fed had higher interest rates under Trump with 1.5% inflation and lower interest rates under Biden* with 8% inflation.

Yes. Funny how that happens. Low interest rates then, high inflation now. Very curious

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hence the fallacy of trillions of unneeded spending.

you actually could be smart, if you didnt keep trying to run cover for the idiots running this country.

(02-05-2024 04:27 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(02-05-2024 11:22 AM)Kruciff Wrote:  

(02-05-2024 11:11 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(02-05-2024 11:00 AM)Kruciff Wrote:  There are macro-economic consequences to holding artificially lower federal interest rates, many of which we are still seeing the effects of now in the economy. I read This Article from 2019, immediately following Trump's interest rate cuts and amid his calls to keep cutting the interest rate "possibly below 0%" as I recall him saying in a tweet once. A lot of the things they were speculating are happening today. It's not as simple as flipping a switch and suddenly interest rates are low.

Because inflation was low. Funny how the fed had higher interest rates under Trump with 1.5% inflation and lower interest rates under Biden* with 8% inflation.

Yes. Funny how that happens. Low interest rates then, high inflation now. Very curious

Sent from my SM-F946U using Tapatalk

hence the fallacy of trillions of unneeded spending.

you actually could be smart, if you didnt keep trying to run cover for the idiots running this country.

he is and he's not...

they simply expose themselves in writ ... it's the conundrum they cannot resolve ... that's where nuts zongo loves the fk'n 'squeeze' of "coogin' it" ... (forgive me other 'coog fanatics) ...


yeah, we still miss they and youse black and blued mothertruckers ...

it's quite fonzies how one can tie all this silly bs together in 3-line-item smidge + a 'madge'....

How much of this growth is being financed and how much is coming from cash reserves?

There were a number of corporations sitting on cash during COVID. Could some of this growth be essentially immune to the higher rates?

(02-05-2024 04:40 PM)Claw Wrote:  How much of this growth is being financed and how much is coming from cash reserves?

There were a number of corporations sitting on cash during COVID. Could some of this growth be essentially immune to the higher rates?

#robPeterPayPaul

...or, would you rather have the dissertation that comes in both hard/paperback that will = tulips

@muhDutch

(02-05-2024 04:27 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(02-05-2024 11:22 AM)Kruciff Wrote:  

(02-05-2024 11:11 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(02-05-2024 11:00 AM)Kruciff Wrote:  There are macro-economic consequences to holding artificially lower federal interest rates, many of which we are still seeing the effects of now in the economy. I read This Article from 2019, immediately following Trump's interest rate cuts and amid his calls to keep cutting the interest rate "possibly below 0%" as I recall him saying in a tweet once. A lot of the things they were speculating are happening today. It's not as simple as flipping a switch and suddenly interest rates are low.

Because inflation was low. Funny how the fed had higher interest rates under Trump with 1.5% inflation and lower interest rates under Biden* with 8% inflation.

Yes. Funny how that happens. Low interest rates then, high inflation now. Very curious

Sent from my SM-F946U using Tapatalk

hence the fallacy of trillions of unneeded spending.

you actually could be smart, if you didnt keep trying to run cover for the idiots running this country.

So what you're saying is... because Trump cut interest rates in 2019+, causing inflation that we see today... we should cut "trillions" in "unneeded" spending. Did Trump lower interest rates to force government spending reductions? Did he intend to cause todays inflation on purpose?

The only things the tards can ever say to any problem is "Trump".

(02-05-2024 05:14 PM)BartlettTigerFan Wrote:  The only things the tards can ever say to any problem is "Trump".

therefore, why not shovel that shite back down their throat ... oopsy, ye ol' doesn't control 90+% of ANY of those AIRWAVES...

too many are clueless what the real battle is all about ... @oh,Wellzy #where%livesMatter

(02-02-2024 02:32 PM)BartlettTigerFan Wrote:  

(02-02-2024 02:31 PM)mlb Wrote:  Credit limits are one thing, but a ton of this is the money that the government has been spending since COVID. Once that spending comes back down then there will be no choice but a recession or worse.

Exactly

I laugh at people that still believe the reported numbers sbout anything.

Believe what you see

(02-05-2024 05:57 PM)shere khan Wrote:  

(02-02-2024 02:32 PM)BartlettTigerFan Wrote:  

(02-02-2024 02:31 PM)mlb Wrote:  Credit limits are one thing, but a ton of this is the money that the government has been spending since COVID. Once that spending comes back down then there will be no choice but a recession or worse.

Exactly

I laugh at people that still believe the reported numbers sbout anything.

Believe what you see

combined, our myopia > 20/20 ... #misnomeredTruism

The “trick” to get people to pour money into 401k’s etc is like the Ponzi scheme, multi level marketing trick of making new “recruits” by a big inventory of products when they join. It keeps sales up, but it’s all fake.

(02-06-2024 01:02 AM)Todor Wrote:  The “trick” to get people to pour money into 401k’s etc is like the Ponzi scheme, multi level marketing trick of making new “recruits” by a big inventory of products when they join. It keeps sales up, but it’s all fake.

replace "built this city on rock-n-roll" with "built this market with 401k" and you have today's version of 'valuations' .... and mayun, I despise this song...

Speaking of Ponzi schemes, looks like Social Security is finally going broke as predicted. People would have been better off investing that amount each paycheck instead of giving it to the federal government. Another socialist program that was doomed to fail.

(02-05-2024 10:46 AM)BartlettTigerFan Wrote:  

(02-05-2024 10:43 AM)VA49er Wrote:  lol, no rates are not high. They have just reached normal levels. The last decade + was the aberration, not the norm.

You are right, but, which did you prefer?

I'm pretty sure most would prefer low rates. However, those low rates reflected an economy that was out of whack. If the economy was fine, then rates would have never been that low for that period of time. Those low rates simply aren't sustainable long term as they always lead to inflation. Rates now are back to normal, it's the housing prices that are the problem, and that's primarily a supply/demand issue.

(02-06-2024 09:29 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  Speaking of Ponzi schemes, looks like Social Security is finally going broke as predicted.

This is basically impossible. Unless everyone stops working, or the federal government stops collecting from employers, there will always be money coming in.

So it will only go "broke" through an act of congress.

What could or likely happen rather would be a reduction in benefits paid out to retirees.