93 Akron

128 Toledo

172 Ohio

177 Kent State

209 Bowling Green

228 Miami

254 Ball State

258 Central Michigan

274 Western Michigan

285 Northern Illinois

330 Eastern Michigan

346 Buffalo

That is a rough year for MAC hoops. I know CUSA is underperforming as well.

Some of that is from coaching changes and transfer portal turnover. I am guessing it is a similar story in the MAC?

The schools I talked sh1t about a few weeks back are actually competing. Miami, CMU, WMU, and BG are all better than a season ago. The middle with Toledo, Ohio, KSU and BSU are down.

Toledo is rebuilding and young and actually pleasantly surprising. But they've been a top 90 team the past couple of seasons and 128 isn't where you want the MACs 2nd team to be. 95% of our fans are happy with the improvement though.

The real negatives are NIU and Buffalo so far... what the hell happened.

NIU started out 5-1 with a win over DePaul. I think we had a few injuries, and our coach can't find a way to hang in the 2nd half.

Seeding for MAC tournament will be interesting. Akron and Toledo likely 1 and 2. Still lots of basketball to be played. BGSU, CMU, WMU and Miami ahead of Ohio and Kent State so far. Does that net rankings fall in line with MAC standing in the end. Ball State, EMU, Buffalo and NIU really got work to do to reach Cleveland. Ohio, Kent State or Ball State might not get to Cleveland.

Dear MAC,
Not to disparage Northern Illinois, but how are they ranked above Eastern Michigan, with no wins in the MAC, and Eastern has two wins, with one against Kent State?

(01-30-2024 02:53 PM)Ken Barna Wrote:  Dear MAC,
Not to disparage Northern Illinois, but how are they ranked above Eastern Michigan, with no wins in the MAC, and Eastern has two wins, with one against Kent State?

OOC games matter in computer rankings. NIU clobbered a surprisingly good App State team early.

Dear freshtop,
Well, that may hold early in the season, but we are soon going into February, and what a team has done since, should count more in my opinion.

Write to the NCAA and complain if you would like. The formula weights all games evenly.

Edit: Also, both are Quad 4 opponents so in the committees eyes both are cupcake opponents.

(01-31-2024 10:32 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  Write to the NCAA and complain if you would like. The formula weights all games evenly.

Edit: Also, both are Quad 4 opponents so in the committees eyes both are cupcake opponents.

Yes, the only way for those two wins to gain more weight is for one of those two schools to get their act together and climb into Quad 3.

While I am not necessarily expecting that, I am obviously rooting for it to happen.

(02-01-2024 08:40 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(01-31-2024 10:32 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  Write to the NCAA and complain if you would like. The formula weights all games evenly.

Edit: Also, both are Quad 4 opponents so in the committees eyes both are cupcake opponents.

Yes, the only way for those two wins to gain more weight is for one of those two schools to get their act together and climb into Quad 3.

While I am not necessarily expecting that, I am obviously rooting for it to happen.

It doesn't really matter at this stage as even if they improve, it's at the cost of cannibalizing other MAC programs. The damage is already done. The MAC dropped a giant turd during OOC play. Top to bottom we need to improve as a conference.

(02-01-2024 10:25 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  

(02-01-2024 08:40 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(01-31-2024 10:32 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  Write to the NCAA and complain if you would like. The formula weights all games evenly.

Edit: Also, both are Quad 4 opponents so in the committees eyes both are cupcake opponents.

Yes, the only way for those two wins to gain more weight is for one of those two schools to get their act together and climb into Quad 3.

While I am not necessarily expecting that, I am obviously rooting for it to happen.

It doesn't really matter at this stage as even if they improve, it's at the cost of cannibalizing other MAC programs. ...

Yes, the scenario I gave doesn't increase the average NET, it just, as the saying goes, rearranges the deck chairs on the Titanic.

MAC Basketball doesn't even have the three and a half weeks of ESPN2 exposure to dangle in front of potential recruits that MAC FB has. And until NIL coordination can be brought in-house, any MAC schools that wanted to strategically target the little NIL they can attract for basketball don't have a clear way to do that without crossing the lines of coordination with NIL collectives that athletic departments at present are not "supposed" to cross.

(02-01-2024 11:19 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(02-01-2024 10:25 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  

(02-01-2024 08:40 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(01-31-2024 10:32 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  Write to the NCAA and complain if you would like. The formula weights all games evenly.

Edit: Also, both are Quad 4 opponents so in the committees eyes both are cupcake opponents.

Yes, the only way for those two wins to gain more weight is for one of those two schools to get their act together and climb into Quad 3.

While I am not necessarily expecting that, I am obviously rooting for it to happen.

It doesn't really matter at this stage as even if they improve, it's at the cost of cannibalizing other MAC programs. ...

Yes, the scenario I gave doesn't increase the average NET, it just, as the saying goes, rearranges the deck chairs on the Titanic.

MAC Basketball doesn't even have the three and a half weeks of ESPN2 exposure to dangle in front of potential recruits that MAC FB has. And until NIL coordination can be brought in-house, any MAC schools that wanted to strategically target the little NIL they can attract for basketball don't have a clear way to do that without crossing the lines of coordination with NIL collectives that athletic departments at present are not "supposed" to cross.

Using RPI (because it's really the only data set I can find that ranks conferences as a whole) the MAC is ranked 19th out of 33 conferences. The issue isn't NIL. The MAC was and has always been behind the P6 conferences plus the AAC, MVC, and A10. Those are the schools that have money to spend.

The issue is now we're getting outperformed by small conferences, like the American East, Big South, Big Sky. The schools that make up those conferences don't have large collectives. I'd be surprised if they have any at all.

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html

(02-01-2024 11:19 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(02-01-2024 10:25 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  

(02-01-2024 08:40 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(01-31-2024 10:32 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  Write to the NCAA and complain if you would like. The formula weights all games evenly.

Edit: Also, both are Quad 4 opponents so in the committees eyes both are cupcake opponents.

Yes, the only way for those two wins to gain more weight is for one of those two schools to get their act together and climb into Quad 3.

While I am not necessarily expecting that, I am obviously rooting for it to happen.

It doesn't really matter at this stage as even if they improve, it's at the cost of cannibalizing other MAC programs. ...

Yes, the scenario I gave doesn't increase the average NET, it just, as the saying goes, rearranges the deck chairs on the Titanic.

MAC Basketball doesn't even have the three and a half weeks of ESPN2 exposure to dangle in front of potential recruits that MAC FB has. And until NIL coordination can be brought in-house, any MAC schools that wanted to strategically target the little NIL they can attract for basketball don't have a clear way to do that without crossing the lines of coordination with NIL collectives that athletic departments at present are not "supposed" to cross.

Using RPI (because it's really the only data set I can find that ranks conferences as a whole) the MAC is ranked 19th out of 33 conferences. The issue isn't NIL. The MAC was and has always been behind the P6 conferences plus the AAC, MVC, and A10. Those are the schools that have money to spend.

The issue is now we're getting outperformed by small conferences, like the American East, Big South, Big Sky. The schools that make up those conferences don't have large collectives. I'd be surprised if they have any at all.

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html

Edit: There are 350+ teams in D1 hoops. The majority of which (50%+) are much smaller in size, have smaller endowments, and smaller alumni base. A school like Howard shouldn't be outperforming half the teams in the MAC.

(02-02-2024 12:19 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:  

(02-01-2024 11:19 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(02-01-2024 10:25 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  

(02-01-2024 08:40 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(01-31-2024 10:32 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  Write to the NCAA and complain if you would like. The formula weights all games evenly.

Edit: Also, both are Quad 4 opponents so in the committees eyes both are cupcake opponents.

Yes, the only way for those two wins to gain more weight is for one of those two schools to get their act together and climb into Quad 3.

While I am not necessarily expecting that, I am obviously rooting for it to happen.

It doesn't really matter at this stage as even if they improve, it's at the cost of cannibalizing other MAC programs. ...

Yes, the scenario I gave doesn't increase the average NET, it just, as the saying goes, rearranges the deck chairs on the Titanic.

MAC Basketball doesn't even have the three and a half weeks of ESPN2 exposure to dangle in front of potential recruits that MAC FB has. And until NIL coordination can be brought in-house, any MAC schools that wanted to strategically target the little NIL they can attract for basketball don't have a clear way to do that without crossing the lines of coordination with NIL collectives that athletic departments at present are not "supposed" to cross.

Using RPI (because it's really the only data set I can find that ranks conferences as a whole) the MAC is ranked 19th out of 33 conferences. The issue isn't NIL. The MAC was and has always been behind the P6 conferences plus the AAC, MVC, and A10. Those are the schools that have money to spend.

The issue is now we're getting outperformed by small conferences, like the American East, Big South, Big Sky. The schools that make up those conferences don't have large collectives. I'd be surprised if they have any at all.

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html

The NIL impact is not just on the high school recruiting side, but is also on the player retention side. It seems like for a while MAC schools that were focusing on recruiting players just a step below the ones declaring for the big money schools were cyclical, as there are those who succeed in landing a good class that work well together, and then recruit to fill in their gaps, and then step up in the rankings when they are juniors and seniors, and then go back to rebuilding.

(Part of the cyclical nature may be that when you have that senior-rich team, it's easier to sell a recruit on there being significant playing time available for freshmen and sophomores.)

Now my impression - and I don't have any reems of stats to back this up, its just my impression - is that its more common that just when those players get to the point where they are going to be impact players, they head off for greener pastures where they are able to get a bag of at least modest size to go with their scholarship.

And then as successful seasons to point to dry up around the MAC, it becomes harder to recruit the same players to the MAC then it was before when the MAC was somewhere in the 10-15 range.

All the games on ESPN+ doesn't mean anything when it seems like there are a dozen basketball-first conferences that can say the same thing.

If the MAC is only going to be able to keep a promising player for a couple of years, that requires a rethink in how you run a program.

Of course, one thing that would help would be an update of the antiquated redshirt rules, where in college FB you can appear in four games -- out of 12 regular season games -- while in basketball appearing in a single game burns your eligibility. If MAC schools could redshirt players while still playing them in 25% of games -- or even 33% of games, as in FB -- they could recruit players with the specific pitch of preparing them to go into the portal after three years with two years of eligibility in hand, and rotate the playing time of freshmen so that they are ready to hit the ground running in sophomore year. Anthony Grant, coach of Dayton, has called for an update of the redshirt rules, and the MAC should be backing him on that issue.

(02-02-2024 12:32 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:  

(02-01-2024 11:19 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(02-01-2024 10:25 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  

(02-01-2024 08:40 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(01-31-2024 10:32 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  Write to the NCAA and complain if you would like. The formula weights all games evenly.

Edit: Also, both are Quad 4 opponents so in the committees eyes both are cupcake opponents.

Yes, the only way for those two wins to gain more weight is for one of those two schools to get their act together and climb into Quad 3.

While I am not necessarily expecting that, I am obviously rooting for it to happen.

It doesn't really matter at this stage as even if they improve, it's at the cost of cannibalizing other MAC programs. ...

Yes, the scenario I gave doesn't increase the average NET, it just, as the saying goes, rearranges the deck chairs on the Titanic.

MAC Basketball doesn't even have the three and a half weeks of ESPN2 exposure to dangle in front of potential recruits that MAC FB has. And until NIL coordination can be brought in-house, any MAC schools that wanted to strategically target the little NIL they can attract for basketball don't have a clear way to do that without crossing the lines of coordination with NIL collectives that athletic departments at present are not "supposed" to cross.

Using RPI (because it's really the only data set I can find that ranks conferences as a whole) the MAC is ranked 19th out of 33 conferences. The issue isn't NIL. The MAC was and has always been behind the P6 conferences plus the AAC, MVC, and A10. Those are the schools that have money to spend.

The issue is now we're getting outperformed by small conferences, like the American East, Big South, Big Sky. The schools that make up those conferences don't have large collectives. I'd be surprised if they have any at all.

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html

Edit: There are 350+ teams in D1 hoops. The majority of which (50%+) are much smaller in size, have smaller endowments, and smaller alumni base. A school like Howard shouldn't be outperforming half the teams in the MAC.

Howard is a nationally prominent university. The most distinguished HBCU, located in the nation's capital, and alumni have powerful social and professional networks. Howard occasionally signs 3 and 4 star bball players because of that.

Yes, MAC should be outperforming the Big South but this is not your parents' MAC. 30-40 years ago MAC schools had relatively large enrollments, good resources and at least half had big fan bases. Now, MAC enrollments have shrunk, 40 years of education cuts/increasing costs have hurt mid sized public institutions, and only a couple MAC schools have a fairly reliable fan base left.

(02-02-2024 02:59 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(02-02-2024 12:19 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:  

(02-01-2024 11:19 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(02-01-2024 10:25 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  

(02-01-2024 08:40 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  Yes, the only way for those two wins to gain more weight is for one of those two schools to get their act together and climb into Quad 3.

While I am not necessarily expecting that, I am obviously rooting for it to happen.

It doesn't really matter at this stage as even if they improve, it's at the cost of cannibalizing other MAC programs. ...

Yes, the scenario I gave doesn't increase the average NET, it just, as the saying goes, rearranges the deck chairs on the Titanic.

MAC Basketball doesn't even have the three and a half weeks of ESPN2 exposure to dangle in front of potential recruits that MAC FB has. And until NIL coordination can be brought in-house, any MAC schools that wanted to strategically target the little NIL they can attract for basketball don't have a clear way to do that without crossing the lines of coordination with NIL collectives that athletic departments at present are not "supposed" to cross.

Using RPI (because it's really the only data set I can find that ranks conferences as a whole) the MAC is ranked 19th out of 33 conferences. The issue isn't NIL. The MAC was and has always been behind the P6 conferences plus the AAC, MVC, and A10. Those are the schools that have money to spend.

The issue is now we're getting outperformed by small conferences, like the American East, Big South, Big Sky. The schools that make up those conferences don't have large collectives. I'd be surprised if they have any at all.

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html

The NIL impact is not just on the high school recruiting side, but is also on the player retention side. It seems like for a while MAC schools that were focusing on recruiting players just a step below the ones declaring for the big money schools were cyclical, as there are those who succeed in landing a good class that work well together, and then recruit to fill in their gaps, and then step up in the rankings when they are juniors and seniors, and then go back to rebuilding.

(Part of the cyclical nature may be that when you have that senior-rich team, it's easier to sell a recruit on there being significant playing time available for freshmen and sophomores.)

Now my impression - and I don't have any reems of stats to back this up, its just my impression - is that its more common that just when those players get to the point where they are going to be impact players, they head off for greener pastures where they are able to get a bag of at least modest size to go with their scholarship.

And then as successful seasons to point to dry up around the MAC, it becomes harder to recruit the same players to the MAC then it was before when the MAC was somewhere in the 10-15 range.

All the games on ESPN+ doesn't mean anything when it seems like there are a dozen basketball-first conferences that can say the same thing.

If the MAC is only going to be able to keep a promising player for a couple of years, that requires a rethink in how you run a program.

Of course, one thing that would help would be an update of the antiquated redshirt rules, where in college FB you can appear in four games -- out of 12 regular season games -- while in basketball appearing in a single game burns your eligibility. If MAC schools could redshirt players while still playing them in 25% of games -- or even 33% of games, as in FB -- they could recruit players with the specific pitch of preparing them to go into the portal after three years with two years of eligibility in hand, and rotate the playing time of freshmen so that they are ready to hit the ground running in sophomore year. Anthony Grant, coach of Dayton, has called for an update of the redshirt rules, and the MAC should be backing him on that issue.

None of what you're saying explains why the MAC has fallen below schools in conferences like the Big South or Big Sky. The teams in those conferences also lose their best players to conferences that have money to spend. Akron plucked LCJ from Long Beach State, which s a Big West school. That issue has never been unique to the MAC.

My honest opinion on why the MAC has slipped is because of a string of poor coaching hires combined with several programs appearing to have given up entirely on trying to fund a competitive basketball program. Instead of going out and hiring a proven winner from a mid to low-major, you see some programs take a flier on an unknown or has been because it's cheaper. There is a reason why Akron, Toledo, and Kent are near the top of the standings most years. The coaches at those programs are proven winners.

(02-02-2024 03:30 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:  ... None of what you're saying explains why the MAC has fallen below schools in conferences like the Big South or Big Sky. ...

It could help explain it, since "everyone loses people to the portal" doesn't pin down how much is lost at different levels. I don't know what do the numbers say on that point. Whether there is a difference in the number of playing minutes going into the portal is something that could be worked out, but it's not something I have time to work out.

Quote:My honest opinion on why the MAC has slipped is because of a string of poor coaching hires combined with several programs appearing to have given up entirely on trying to fund a competitive basketball program.

There have always been MAC schools that have not prioritized basketball, but it might be that in the aftermath of the Covid hit on budgets, there are more who are accepting being in the cellar rather than trying to at least get the kind of mid-table finish where you have more home wins than home losses.

There may be some traces of that in the end of season NET numbers since Covid -- that's a lot less time consuming to look at, so I'll have a look at that today. Kent State has a strategic priority on basketball, but it may be that more than the previous number have gone all in on FB and have put basketball on the back burner.

Quote: ... Instead of going out and hiring a proven winner from a mid to low-major, you see some programs take a flier on an unknown or has been because it's cheaper. There is a reason why Akron, Toledo, and Kent are near the top of the standings most years. The coaches at those programs are proven winners. ...

Again, some of that might have been short term expediency in the budget messes most schools faced post-Covid rather than a change in strategy ... we will have to see whether the replacements at some schools when the busts among those hires are replaced can be pressured to go back to more competitive coaching hires.

(02-02-2024 03:27 PM)pono Wrote:  

(02-02-2024 12:32 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:  

(02-01-2024 11:19 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(02-01-2024 10:25 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  

(02-01-2024 08:40 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  Yes, the only way for those two wins to gain more weight is for one of those two schools to get their act together and climb into Quad 3.

While I am not necessarily expecting that, I am obviously rooting for it to happen.

It doesn't really matter at this stage as even if they improve, it's at the cost of cannibalizing other MAC programs. ...

Yes, the scenario I gave doesn't increase the average NET, it just, as the saying goes, rearranges the deck chairs on the Titanic.

MAC Basketball doesn't even have the three and a half weeks of ESPN2 exposure to dangle in front of potential recruits that MAC FB has. And until NIL coordination can be brought in-house, any MAC schools that wanted to strategically target the little NIL they can attract for basketball don't have a clear way to do that without crossing the lines of coordination with NIL collectives that athletic departments at present are not "supposed" to cross.

Using RPI (because it's really the only data set I can find that ranks conferences as a whole) the MAC is ranked 19th out of 33 conferences. The issue isn't NIL. The MAC was and has always been behind the P6 conferences plus the AAC, MVC, and A10. Those are the schools that have money to spend.

The issue is now we're getting outperformed by small conferences, like the American East, Big South, Big Sky. The schools that make up those conferences don't have large collectives. I'd be surprised if they have any at all.

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html

Edit: There are 350+ teams in D1 hoops. The majority of which (50%+) are much smaller in size, have smaller endowments, and smaller alumni base. A school like Howard shouldn't be outperforming half the teams in the MAC.

Howard is a nationally prominent university. The most distinguished HBCU, located in the nation's capital, and alumni have powerful social and professional networks. Howard occasionally signs 3 and 4 star bball players because of that.

Yes, MAC should be outperforming the Big South but this is not your parents' MAC. 30-40 years ago MAC schools had relatively large enrollments, good resources and at least half had big fan bases. Now, MAC enrollments have shrunk, 40 years of education cuts/increasing costs have hurt mid sized public institutions, and only a couple MAC schools have a fairly reliable fan base left.

I wasn't meaning to take a shot at Howard specifically. They just jumped out at me probably because Akron has played them in the past.

I do agree that you are touching on some points that are discussion worthy.

(02-03-2024 09:13 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(02-02-2024 03:30 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:  ... None of what you're saying explains why the MAC has fallen below schools in conferences like the Big South or Big Sky. ...

It could help explain it, since "everyone loses people to the portal" doesn't pin down how much is lost at different levels. I don't know what do the numbers say on that point. Whether there is a difference in the number of playing minutes going into the portal is something that could be worked out, but it's not something I have time to work out.

Quote:My honest opinion on why the MAC has slipped is because of a string of poor coaching hires combined with several programs appearing to have given up entirely on trying to fund a competitive basketball program.

There have always been MAC schools that have not prioritized basketball, but it might be that in the aftermath of the Covid hit on budgets, there are more who are accepting being in the cellar rather than trying to at least get the kind of mid-table finish where you have more home wins than home losses.

There may be some traces of that in the end of season NET numbers since Covid -- that's a lot less time consuming to look at, so I'll have a look at that today. Kent State has a strategic priority on basketball, but it may be that more than the previous number have gone all in on FB and have put basketball on the back burner.

Quote: ... Instead of going out and hiring a proven winner from a mid to low-major, you see some programs take a flier on an unknown or has been because it's cheaper. There is a reason why Akron, Toledo, and Kent are near the top of the standings most years. The coaches at those programs are proven winners. ...

Again, some of that might have been short term expediency in the budget messes most schools faced post-Covid rather than a change in strategy ... we will have to see whether the replacements at some schools when the busts among those hires are replaced can be pressured to go back to more competitive coaching hires.

I actually think you're starting to hit the nail on the head. Covid hurt conferences like the Sun Belt, C-USA, and MAC more than anyone. I say that because the other 7 conferences have the means to withstand the storm. FBS is expensive to operate so when the majority of the revenue for it suddenly disappears, it digs a deep hole.