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Right now I am playing this lineup Day Day, Dan, John, Simas, Vik/Aziz the majority of minutes the rest of the way. No two bigs, and the bench guys like Jizzle and Reed get about 10 minutes or so to spell the top of rotation guys. Ody over Reynolds for situational spot minutes for now but that could change game to game.

The key is to make sure that you don’t have less then 3 of your top 6 on the floor and for most part that number needs to be at 4.

Rotations with Jizzle, Reed, and Reynolds in there together are bound to be problems.

(01-29-2024 09:06 AM)DownOnRohs Wrote:  The real winners on Saturday night were the posters in this game thread because I was unable to watch the game. I did catch the last 4 minutes live. Survive and advance starting a little earlier than we would like.

It was rough where ever you were watching the game, including in the arena. I've never seen a UC basketball team get booed both going to the locker room and coming out of it after halftime.

Ultimately I think losing Vik for this game hurt more than a lot of fans watching live, including myself, realized. He's such an integral part of the offense on the interior, making an impact both on and off the scoreboard, that this team simply struggled to make the adjustment to his absence in the first half. So, yea, to your point, they survived and got the Q2 win. Hopefully we can get both Vik and CJ back this week.

(01-29-2024 09:31 AM)UCBearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  Right now I am playing this lineup Day Day, Dan, John, Simas, Vik/Aziz the majority of minutes the rest of the way. No two bigs, and the bench guys like Jizzle and Reed get about 10 minutes or so to spell the top of rotation guys. Ody over Reynolds for situational spot minutes for now but that could change game to game.

The key is to make sure that you don’t have less then 3 of your top 6 on the floor and for most part that number needs to be at 4.

Rotations with Jizzle, Reed, and Reynolds in there together are bound to be problems.

I don't think it is that cut and dry, but it's pretty clear the 6 you mentioned are going to get and should get the most minutes.

There will be matchups/games where our two big lineups cause issues. I think Jizzle has hit a bit of a wall, but I still think the kids is talented enough and engaged enough that we are going to see games where he plays a big role on the floor.

This team is deep...I don't mean deep in the sense that there isn't a clear rotation, I mean deep in that they have guys that can step up when needed and called upon. Ody sat for 2 games, then came off the bench and gave huge minutes in Vik's absence. Josh Reed has been a really effective player for us when he's in the game (if too tentative with his shot in conference play). We've seen flashes from Reynolds, and I still believe he has some huge moments ahead. And that's all before we get to CJ Fredrick, who hopefully we can get back in mid February to be ready for the stretch run.

(01-28-2024 06:50 PM)eroc Wrote:  

(01-28-2024 02:26 PM)cinbinsportsfan Wrote:  

(01-28-2024 10:02 AM)RuckleSt Wrote:  

(01-27-2024 11:28 PM)eroc Wrote:  i might be misunderstanding something but in the presser, Coach Miller called CJ Frederick their best offensive player. Does that seem right?

I'm guessing he meant "most important" instead of best, because having someone who can stretch Defenses really helps make the offense work.

I truly believe that it's no coincidence that since CJ Fredrick went out for injury Cincinnati has been in the 3-pt doldrums. CJ's role on this team was exactly that, a player that teams had to account for to kill them from three and who the rest of UC relied upon too. Moreso, those responsibilities have fallen on the shoulders of Simas, DayDay, and Skillings even though that wasn't necessarily their main role at the beginning of the season.

Getting him back and reliably healthy (big question mark at this point) would do wonders for bringing this offense back to what we saw during the first couple of months of this season.

i know i've posted this elsewhere but i'd be curious about how his defense translates. is he a starter? if so, that would put a ton of pressure on the rest of the starters, assuming we start Simas as well. And if he's our most important offensive player, i would have a hard time imagining him on the bench.

i think if/when we get him back, he's probably coming off the bench. At that point, if we are playing him and Simas together, i'd be curious as to what the defense looks like.

First things first. We need him back 100% healthy. No need for a 90% CJ all things considered.

That's a really good question. This is a basic way of looking at things but his defensive rating (estimated points allowed per 100 possessions) is worst on the team at 104.1. Conversely, his offensive rating (estimated points scored per 100 possessions) is the best on the team at 134.8. Obviously, there are more advanced metrics that I haven't looked at and I'd love to hear from folks who can chime in on that but that variance sort of matches my eye test, although I think he's a better defender than what that defensive rating numbers gives him credit for. For example, his defensive rating is worse this season than Jeremiah Davenport's last season (101.4) and I feel like CJ is definitely a better defender than JD.

(01-29-2024 10:03 AM)cinbinsportsfan Wrote:  

(01-28-2024 06:50 PM)eroc Wrote:  

(01-28-2024 02:26 PM)cinbinsportsfan Wrote:  

(01-28-2024 10:02 AM)RuckleSt Wrote:  

(01-27-2024 11:28 PM)eroc Wrote:  i might be misunderstanding something but in the presser, Coach Miller called CJ Frederick their best offensive player. Does that seem right?

I'm guessing he meant "most important" instead of best, because having someone who can stretch Defenses really helps make the offense work.

I truly believe that it's no coincidence that since CJ Fredrick went out for injury Cincinnati has been in the 3-pt doldrums. CJ's role on this team was exactly that, a player that teams had to account for to kill them from three and who the rest of UC relied upon too. Moreso, those responsibilities have fallen on the shoulders of Simas, DayDay, and Skillings even though that wasn't necessarily their main role at the beginning of the season.

Getting him back and reliably healthy (big question mark at this point) would do wonders for bringing this offense back to what we saw during the first couple of months of this season.

i know i've posted this elsewhere but i'd be curious about how his defense translates. is he a starter? if so, that would put a ton of pressure on the rest of the starters, assuming we start Simas as well. And if he's our most important offensive player, i would have a hard time imagining him on the bench.

i think if/when we get him back, he's probably coming off the bench. At that point, if we are playing him and Simas together, i'd be curious as to what the defense looks like.

First things first. We need him back 100% healthy. No need for a 90% CJ all things considered.

That's a really good question. This is a basic way of looking at things but his defensive rating (estimated points allowed per 100 possessions) is worst on the team at 104.1. Conversely, his offensive rating (estimated points scored per 100 possessions) is the best on the team at 134.8. Obviously, there are more advanced metrics that I haven't looked at and I'd love to hear from folks who can chime in on that but that variance sort of matches my eye test, although I think he's a better defender than what that defensive rating numbers gives him credit for. For example, his defensive rating is worse this season than Jeremiah Davenport's last season (101.4) and I feel like CJ is definitely a better defender than JD.

Defensive and offensive ratings are meaningless to compare across years, because they are largely based upon the team defense/offense. At best, you can compare their rank on the team relative to someone from other years. For Fredrick though, even that is meaningless. Recall that our defense took a huge jump going into Big 12 play, which means that everyone who has played in the Big 12 has seen their DRTG improve, quite a bit in some case, as those ratings are largely based upon the team as a whole. Fredrick has not played, so his defense rating is low because the team as a whole was bad at defense back in November. His ORTG is likely inflated as well, because he has not played against our toughest competition.

If you pay, you might be able to find ways to break down comparisons by time period. The best I can find is 30 day change on EvanMiya, every player (besides Fredrick) has seen a pretty significant DBPR improvement. Every player besides Lukosius, Fredrick and Newman(!) have had their OBPR drop.

Pretty much all stats and advanced metrics have issues, the best you can do is look at a wide range, plus actual play, over a long period of time and try to draw something from it. I say this as someone who loves to look at all the advanced metrics.

(01-29-2024 09:31 AM)UCBearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  Right now I am playing this lineup Day Day, Dan, John, Simas, Vik/Aziz the majority of minutes the rest of the way. No two bigs, and the bench guys like Jizzle and Reed get about 10 minutes or so to spell the top of rotation guys. Ody over Reynolds for situational spot minutes for now but that could change game to game.

The key is to make sure that you don’t have less then 3 of your top 6 on the floor and for most part that number needs to be at 4.

Rotations with Jizzle, Reed, and Reynolds in there together are bound to be problems.

The only problem with "no two bigs" is that Vik plays his worst when he's at the 5. He's much better (and more valuable) at the 4. When he's at the 5 he tends to get out-muscled more often than not and gets out of position on defense allowing for easy buckets. If I were an opposing coach, if he were the only big man on the court, I'd draw him out to the top of the key and pick and roll you to death. Also, unless he becomes more consistent with his foul shooting, I don't like him as the only big man on the floor. And if he continues to want to heave up 3's, I'd rather him do it as a 4 instead of a 5.

Now I'm not saying it can't be tried, because Wes seems to be on to something with the smaller lineup, but IMO I wouldn't expect an uptick in offensive production from Vik if he's the only 5 on the floor for extended periods of time. But, Wes may be fine with that. They were obviously able to win a game without his offense (and defense).

(01-29-2024 10:26 AM)Cat-Man Wrote:  

(01-29-2024 09:31 AM)UCBearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  Right now I am playing this lineup Day Day, Dan, John, Simas, Vik/Aziz the majority of minutes the rest of the way. No two bigs, and the bench guys like Jizzle and Reed get about 10 minutes or so to spell the top of rotation guys. Ody over Reynolds for situational spot minutes for now but that could change game to game.

The key is to make sure that you don’t have less then 3 of your top 6 on the floor and for most part that number needs to be at 4.

Rotations with Jizzle, Reed, and Reynolds in there together are bound to be problems.

The only problem with "no two bigs" is that Vik plays his worst when he's at the 5. He's much better (and more valuable) at the 4. When he's at the 5 he tends to get out-muscled more often than not and gets out of position on defense allowing for easy buckets. If I were an opposing coach, if he were the only big man on the court, I'd draw him out to the top of the key and pick and roll you to death. Also, unless he becomes more consistent with his foul shooting, I don't like him as the only big man on the floor. And if he continues to want to heave up 3's, I'd rather him do it as a 4 instead of a 5.

Now I'm not saying it can't be tried, because Wes seems to be on to something with the smaller lineup, but IMO I wouldn't expect an uptick in offensive production from Vik if he's the only 5 on the floor for extended periods of time. But, Wes may be fine with that. They were obviously able to win a game without his offense (and defense).

Vik and Aziz are our 2 best players. They have to be on the court together a lot.

(01-29-2024 10:20 AM)skyblade Wrote:  

(01-29-2024 10:03 AM)cinbinsportsfan Wrote:  That's a really good question. This is a basic way of looking at things but his defensive rating (estimated points allowed per 100 possessions) is worst on the team at 104.1. Conversely, his offensive rating (estimated points scored per 100 possessions) is the best on the team at 134.8. Obviously, there are more advanced metrics that I haven't looked at and I'd love to hear from folks who can chime in on that but that variance sort of matches my eye test, although I think he's a better defender than what that defensive rating numbers gives him credit for. For example, his defensive rating is worse this season than Jeremiah Davenport's last season (101.4) and I feel like CJ is definitely a better defender than JD.

Defensive and offensive ratings are meaningless to compare across years, because they are largely based upon the team defense/offense. At best, you can compare their rank on the team relative to someone from other years. For Fredrick though, even that is meaningless. Recall that our defense took a huge jump going into Big 12 play, which means that everyone who has played in the Big 12 has seen their DRTG improve, quite a bit in some case, as those ratings are largely based upon the team as a whole. Fredrick has not played, so his defense rating is low because the team as a whole was bad at defense back in November. His ORTG is likely inflated as well, because he has not played against our toughest competition.

If you pay, you might be able to find ways to break down comparisons by time period. The best I can find is 30 day change on EvanMiya, every player (besides Fredrick) has seen a pretty significant DBPR improvement. Every player besides Lukosius, Fredrick and Newman(!) have had their OBPR drop.

Pretty much all stats and advanced metrics have issues, the best you can do is look at a wide range, plus actual play, over a long period of time and try to draw something from it. I say this as someone who loves to look at all the advanced metrics.

Totally agree, the offensive/defense ratings are good enough for a first pass at performance, at best. Definitely need to consider everything you listed with the more advanced metrics before passing full judgement on a player. Unfortunately, I'm not the type of guy to pay for advanced metrics but I'd love to see by the end of the season, assuming CJ can put some time in during Big 12 play, what they tell us about his offensive and defensive performance.