Skyhawk
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RE: What If: Florida State Chose SEC over ACC?
(01-15-2024 06:29 PM)Ocalabull Wrote: (01-15-2024 04:23 AM)Skyhawk Wrote: (01-15-2024 02:51 AM)BePcr07 Wrote: With the Florida St and ACC situation and the other "what if" threads, I've been thinking about this common what-if. What if Florida St joined the SEC in the 90s instead of the ACC?
In 1992, the SEC expands to 12 with Arkansas and Florida St. Instead of joining the SEC, South Carolina joins as a full member of the Big East and Temple does not join as a football-only member. Penn St still joins the B1G and the XII still forms. PAC sits at 10 and ACC sits at 8.
In the 2000s realignment:
ACC decides to expand to 12 from 8 with Boston College, Miami, South Carolina, and Virginia Tech.
- Big East brings aboard Cincinnati, Connecticut (football), Louisville, and South Florida.
In the 2010-2012 realignment round:
- B1G still initially grows to 12 with Nebraska.
- PAC fails at their growth to 16 and settles at 12 with Colorado and Utah.
- ACC adds Pittsburgh and Syracuse for 14; plus, Notre Dame as non-football.
- SEC expands to 14 with South Carolina and Texas A&M.
- B1G brings in Maryland and Rutgers for 14.
- ACC, now at 12, adds Connecticut and Louisville for 14.
- XII, at 9 but still wants a CCG, adds Cincinnati, TCU, and West Virginia for 12.
In the latest round of realignment:
- SEC goes up to 18 with Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas.
- XII, at 6, adds BYU, Central Florida, Houston, Memphis, South Florida, and Tulane.
- B1G brings in Oregon, UCLA, USC and Washington for 18.
- ACC decides to grow to 16/17 with Cincinnati and West Virginia.
- XII is proactive and adds Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, and Utah for 16.
- ACC adds California and Stanford for 18/19.
The ACC would need to dip below 15 (lose more than 4 members) which is a buffer for the B1G and SEC to reach 20. The ACC would likely be attractive for any Eastern or metropolitan XII school.
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B1G
Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan St, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio St, Oregon, Penn St, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin
SEC
Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Florida St, Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
ACC
Boston College, California, Cincinnati, Clemson, Connecticut, Duke, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, North Carolina St, (Notre Dame), Pittsburgh, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, West Virginia
XII
Arizona, Arizona St, Baylor, BYU, Central Florida, Colorado, Houston, Iowa St, Kansas St, Memphis, Oklahoma St, South Florida, TCU, Texas Tech, Tulane, Utah
AAC
Army*, Charlotte, East Carolina, Florida Atlantic, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee St, Navy*, North Texas, Rice, SMU, Temple, Tulsa, UAB, UTSA, Western Kentucky, Wichita St^
CUSA survives with Florida International, Liberty, New Mexico St, and UTEP by adding Delaware, Jacksonville St, Kennesaw St, and Sam Houston St and 2-4 other FCS call-ups.
MAC, MWC, and SBC stay the same.
Interesting.
I think the wild card in this scenario is South Carolina, which pushes dominoes to then add Missouri as another wildcard.
That aside, I'm not sure I see the initial premise of the scenario. It's been said before that the Arkansas/South Carolina additions needed to be in new states. FSU didn't/doesn't meet that criteria.
But let's move forward a few years to the post-2010 realignment round. If FSU had left then, rather than allow ND to convince them to stay.
And if FSU leaves at that point, I think Clemson is out the door with them.
Does the SEC add 4 (Texas A&M, Missouri, FSU, and Clemson)? Possibly. 3 out of the 4 double up on states, so adding Missouri might still happen.
And if FSU and Clemson leave at that point, the ACC likely adds 4 schools to replace them (4 for 2 was the common action at the time).
Would they still turn up their nose at WV and Cincinnati? I dunno. Cincinnati went undefeated in 2009. So I think they were on the radar.
But even if not AAU yet, I think USF gets a look.
I don't think Tulane was on the radar back then, but being AAU, I think they'd have gotten at least a look.
And would, as was rumored, BC still have been able to keep UConn out? Maybe. And worth noting that they were also having issues at the time.
So let's say that Pitt, Syracuse, Cincinnati, and USF get added as the 4.
With that done back then, there's no overwhelming "need" to expand this time around. But I think ND does still convince them to add Stanford and Cal (and SMU).
ACC
Boston College, California, Cincinnati, Duke, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, North Carolina St, (Notre Dame), Pittsburgh, Stanford, Syracuse, USF, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, West Virginia
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But what if the SEC didn't want to go to 16 and only wanted to add 2. Does FSU beat out Missouri? It's close, but probably. New state market vs second in a Large state market.
So then the SEC adds Texas A&M and Florida State.
Missouri wants out of the Big12. Not getting full shares at the SEC means they have to start looking elsewhere.
Either "something" gets worked out with the Big10, or they start looking at the PAC or the ACC.
I think, looking at travel vs local, that Missouri might well get an invite to the Big10, similar to the Nebraska deal. Besides everything else, the existing rivalry with Illinois helps them across the line.
This puts the Big10 at an odd number, but they've been at an odd number for some time with Penn State. So it doesn't bother them.
Interestingly, I think if they had been at 15, that Fox might have let all three of OR, USC, and UCLA join, rather than bump OR for UCLA.
In this scenario, Clemson is still in the ACC. Cincinnati still probably replaces FSU. With USF still being possible as well.
And then that would affect the dominoes of realignment this time around:
The PAC, losing 3 instead of 2, likely adds San Diego State immediately. And at 10 members, might not be so quick to try for 50M, and maybe survives with a deal somewhere in the neighborhood of 35-40M, with both espn and Fox as media partners.
So the PAC survives; the SEC adds FSU and Texas A&M; the ACC loses FSU but gains USF and Cin; and the Big10 gets Missouri instead of Washington.
The Big12, not getting Cincinnati, likely adds short-listed Memphis instead.
And realignment is likely over.
Interesting what ifs.
USF is AAU as of a few months ago.
yes, but they were not yet AAU back then.
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