If the US was to start pumping 14.5-15mill bbls/day(where it should be now) the price of fuel would go down, Russia would have to end their war with Ukraine and our prices would at least stabilize, if not decrease and everyone would be making more money, except the oil companies, of course.

(01-12-2024 09:47 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(01-12-2024 09:27 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  

(01-12-2024 08:51 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  We will need a period of negative inflation to get things reset.

That would mean recession/depression and nobody wants that either.

You basically need 2% inflation for the next 4-5 years in order for wages to catch up to the current prices. It will be a slow and long recovery either way.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Not really. It actually happens quite a bit.

There's three main reasons prices go up and down:

1. Demand
2. Production Rates
3. Logistical costs to get inventory and ship it out.

We have been smacked hard by #3, where excessive fuel costs affect everything from the supply chain beginning to the end. You start seriously producing fuel, and all steps in that process get reduced, and the prices will fall WITHOUT affecting the manufacturing entities. The only entities that get hurt are russia and countries that dont like us who get a lot less for the oil.

We have ALWAYS had periods of deflation in some categories. We had $4 and $5 per gallon gas under Obama. The we had sub $2 gallon of gas under Trump. We didnt have a recession under Trump.

Where you get into trouble is when you cut demand for a product to get the price down. That leads to some economic issues, because now food prices drop and farmers cant make enough money to grow crops. But if you cut fuel prices, then the price of fertilizer decreases, the price of shipping goods decreases, and the price of food to the table decreases, without affecting how much money a farmer can clear.

But yea, I dont expect this numbnut administration to be able to pull anything like that off without serious consequences.

1. The average price of gas under Obama never topped $4 per gallon.
2. The average price of gas under trump was only below $2 per gallon for two months, in April and May of 2020. Remember, the global pandemic?
3. Obama also had 2 months of gas below $2 per gallon, February 2009 and 2016.
4. We are seriously producing oil. Highest level in our history.
5. Historically we get very little oil from Russia by comparison to Canada. And we haven't gotten a drop since April of 2022.
6. When adjusted for inflation, the current price of gas at $3.07 IS cheap. Idiot trump wants it so low it would again cause wide bankruptcies in the O&G industry just like when he was president.
7. The last recessions we had were under Bush at the end of his term which Obama inherited, and under trump during the pandemic which was not entirely his fault.

Anyone who opines for the O&G policies of the trump administration is a moron.

Average Gas Prices: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHa...us_dpg&f=m
Russia Oil Imports: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHa...-NRS_1&f=M
Canadian Oil Imports: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHa...MUSCA1&f=M

Who seriously posts .gov sites as proof of anything?

(01-12-2024 10:18 AM)BartlettTigerFan Wrote:  Who seriously posts .gov sites as proof of anything?

This level of stupidity just can't be fixed.

And your level of gullibility just can't be fixed.

(01-12-2024 09:47 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(01-12-2024 09:27 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  

(01-12-2024 08:51 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  We will need a period of negative inflation to get things reset.

That would mean recession/depression and nobody wants that either.

You basically need 2% inflation for the next 4-5 years in order for wages to catch up to the current prices. It will be a slow and long recovery either way.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Not really. It actually happens quite a bit.

There's three main reasons prices go up and down:

1. Demand
2. Production Rates
3. Logistical costs to get inventory and ship it out.

We have been smacked hard by #3, where excessive fuel costs affect everything from the supply chain beginning to the end. You start seriously producing fuel, and all steps in that process get reduced, and the prices will fall WITHOUT affecting the manufacturing entities. The only entities that get hurt are russia and countries that dont like us who get a lot less for the oil.

We have ALWAYS had periods of deflation in some categories. We had $4 and $5 per gallon gas under Obama. The we had sub $2 gallon of gas under Trump. We didnt have a recession under Trump.

Where you get into trouble is when you cut demand for a product to get the price down. That leads to some economic issues, because now food prices drop and farmers cant make enough money to grow crops. But if you cut fuel prices, then the price of fertilizer decreases, the price of shipping goods decreases, and the price of food to the table decreases, without affecting how much money a farmer can clear.

But yea, I dont expect this numbnut administration to be able to pull anything like that off without serious consequences.

Correct. It's amazing that even some well informed and 'correct minded' people have bought into the idea that declining prices MUST mean some form of economic downturn, and that simply isn't the case.

If prices rise because of higher transportation costs driven by higher fuel costs (just an example) then a decline in transportation costs can result in a decline in those same prices. Similarly, rising prices driven by higher regulation costs or higher labor costs can be reversed as well. That said, of course many prices will be sticky on the way down... especially labor costs, though this certainly can create a period for transition from labor to automation... because you're paying more than the labor really costs as things decline... or increased quality/features without cutting the price... but that is not inflation, because someone else can still come in with the old version of the product at the lower cost.

But this is what Democrats want. Again, not letting a disaster go to waste. They WANT higher prices for a number of reasons... mostly that the rich get richer and the poor get more money, but not richer because of the inflation. You don't hear one of them talking about the reduced buying power of wages... only about the rise in wages. You don't hear them talk about people taking second, temporary jobs... only jobs. They want to imply that people without jobs are getting them, but the reality is that people with jobs are taking them... and people without them, by and large are growing at about the same pace as those who are leaving the work force.

It's part of why we so often see large rises in jobs without changes in the unemployment rate. Sometimes it is simply because those jobs are being taken by already employed people. This is especially the case when you see rises in temporary or part time jobs.

(01-12-2024 10:33 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(01-12-2024 09:47 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(01-12-2024 09:27 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  

(01-12-2024 08:51 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  We will need a period of negative inflation to get things reset.

That would mean recession/depression and nobody wants that either.

You basically need 2% inflation for the next 4-5 years in order for wages to catch up to the current prices. It will be a slow and long recovery either way.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Not really. It actually happens quite a bit.

There's three main reasons prices go up and down:

1. Demand
2. Production Rates
3. Logistical costs to get inventory and ship it out.

We have been smacked hard by #3, where excessive fuel costs affect everything from the supply chain beginning to the end. You start seriously producing fuel, and all steps in that process get reduced, and the prices will fall WITHOUT affecting the manufacturing entities. The only entities that get hurt are russia and countries that dont like us who get a lot less for the oil.

We have ALWAYS had periods of deflation in some categories. We had $4 and $5 per gallon gas under Obama. The we had sub $2 gallon of gas under Trump. We didnt have a recession under Trump.

Where you get into trouble is when you cut demand for a product to get the price down. That leads to some economic issues, because now food prices drop and farmers cant make enough money to grow crops. But if you cut fuel prices, then the price of fertilizer decreases, the price of shipping goods decreases, and the price of food to the table decreases, without affecting how much money a farmer can clear.

But yea, I dont expect this numbnut administration to be able to pull anything like that off without serious consequences.

Correct. It's amazing that even some well informed and 'correct minded' people have bought into the idea that declining prices MUST mean some form of economic downturn, and that simply isn't the case.

If prices rise because of higher transportation costs driven by higher fuel costs (just an example) then a decline in transportation costs can result in a decline in those same prices. Similarly, rising prices driven by higher regulation costs or higher labor costs can be reversed as well. That said, of course many prices will be sticky on the way down... especially labor costs, though this certainly can create a period for transition from labor to automation... because you're paying more than the labor really costs as things decline... or increased quality/features without cutting the price... but that is not inflation, because someone else can still come in with the old version of the product at the lower cost.

But this is what Democrats want. Again, not letting a disaster go to waste. They WANT higher prices for a number of reasons... mostly that the rich get richer and the poor get more money, but not richer because of the inflation. You don't hear one of them talking about the reduced buying power of wages... only about the rise in wages. You don't hear them talk about people taking second, temporary jobs... only jobs. They want to imply that people without jobs are getting them, but the reality is that people with jobs are taking them... and people without them, by and large are growing at about the same pace as those who are leaving the work force.

It's part of why we so often see large rises in jobs without changes in the unemployment rate. Sometimes it is simply because those jobs are being taken by already employed people. This is especially the case when you see rises in temporary or part time jobs.

yes, one big issue when you have extended periods of inflation is that some of the workers will get salary increases to help ease how the inflation rate had hit them in the pocket book. The issue is that when prices start to come down in stabilization, there will be a group of people who now have higher salaries that no longer match the purchasing power. It gives them much more buying power which can lead to inflation in of itself.

Its why you dont want these enormous inflation periods to extend very long. It gets very hard to disassemble in an orderly fashion. To some degree, it could take years or a decade to restabilize.

This was the failure of this fed. The moment Biden* queued up trillions in spending and started curbing fuel production is the moment the fed should have started an uptick in interest rates. WHich was basically Jan 21. They had no problem upticking it under Trump, so why the delay in doing so under Biden* when inflation immediately shot up leads one to believe the fed was being political instead of economically saavy.

(01-12-2024 10:18 AM)BartlettTigerFan Wrote:  Who seriously posts .gov sites as proof of anything?

Tom, because of BUT MUH ESTIMATIONS.

(01-12-2024 10:27 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(01-12-2024 10:18 AM)BartlettTigerFan Wrote:  Who seriously posts .gov sites as proof of anything?

This level of stupidity just can't be fixed.

Do you 100% trust the data posted on those sites?

(01-12-2024 11:02 AM)VA49er Wrote:  

(01-12-2024 10:27 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(01-12-2024 10:18 AM)BartlettTigerFan Wrote:  Who seriously posts .gov sites as proof of anything?

This level of stupidity just can't be fixed.

Do you 100% trust the data posted on those sites?

Only when a Democrat is in control, cause they don't lie like stinky Republicans

Tom... You're arguing details because the facts just don't support you

(01-12-2024 10:16 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  1. The average price of gas under Obama never topped $4 per gallon.

No, but it hit 3.91 or higher 3 times. So a distinction without a difference.

It was 1.85 when he took office and averaged about 3.25 during his entire administration
It averaged about 2.50 under Trump and has been about 3.50 during Biden.

Quote:2. The average price of gas under trump was only below $2 per gallon for two months, in April and May of 2020. Remember, the global pandemic?

Which makes no difference to the fact that it was NEVER above $3 during his administration. Gasoline is of course not the only energy impacted by drilling and fracking etc. Look at Natural Gas and heating oil prices and you see the same pattern. Things were better under Trump than Obama, and better under Obama than Biden.

Quote:4. We are seriously producing oil. Highest level in our history.

Wars in other areas producing oil tends to do that.

Quote:5. Historically we get very little oil from Russia by comparison to Canada. And we haven't gotten a drop since April of 2022.

Which means nothing, since oil is fungible. We don't get it from them, but people who used to get it from us (or others that we do) do

Quote:6. When adjusted for inflation, the current price of gas at $3.07 IS cheap.

Funny... you want to 'adjust for inflation' one of the biggest causes of inflation??
And cheap relative to what? Certainly not relative to Trump, which is the comparison.

Quote:Idiot trump wants it so low it would again cause wide bankruptcies in the O&G industry just like when he was president.

Laughable projection.

Quote:Anyone who opines for the O&G policies of the trump administration is a moron.

From the biggest energy moron on this site... this is actual praise.

You only blame Trump 'some' for the global pandemic... but ignore that MORE blame would be laid at the feet of Biden for China, Russia, Ukraine, Israel and Iran.

Biden's policies only remotely make sense (us not getting oil from Russia) because of the war he played a hand in and the sanctions that he imposed... that are doing nothing.

(01-12-2024 11:02 AM)VA49er Wrote:  

(01-12-2024 10:27 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(01-12-2024 10:18 AM)BartlettTigerFan Wrote:  Who seriously posts .gov sites as proof of anything?

This level of stupidity just can't be fixed.

Do you 100% trust the data posted on those sites?

That stuff, absolutely. The O&G industry relies on them. I don't think anyone does, or even can, compile this information.

But sure, I guess nothing is infallible. That being said, they have been collecting and reporting this data for decades. And to the idiots above, yes, I trust this data no matter who was/is president. They are the only ones who change their opinion of this data based on the presidency.

They LIE dumb***. All the time.

(01-12-2024 02:30 PM)BartlettTigerFan Wrote:  They LIE dumb***. All the time.

Okay dumb***, I guess gas IS over $8 per gallon then as trump says.

Trump lies too. What's your point?