https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...son-oregon

First article is about a backup QB from Oregon transferring to Tulane. 2nd article is about Tagovailoa transferring from Maryland to (somewhere). Sure, NIL comes across as shady, and it quite often is, but with all the transfers it's impossible for tOSU, Alabama, Georgia, ND, etc etc, to stockpile all the talent. It used to be "ride the pine for 3 years here at State U, start and be an All American your Sr year then be a first round draft pick", now it's "make $300k to ride the pine for 3 years at Florida or make $1m a year to start at Tulane next year, then maybe transfer again if Syracuse offers you $2m a year, then transfer back to Florida for your Sr year for $3m that last year".

More quality kids getting playing time, getting them more money today and increasing their odds of getting noticed by the NFL is a good thing for the Sport, though perhaps not so good for my Aggies and other well-funded programs.

No question, the transfer portal has helped thin out talent among the "super teams" - Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State - who can't stockpile depth like they used to. Probably why Michigan, in three years, has gone from getting bashed by Ohio State and Alabama to being able to narrowly beat them. Clemson has been suffering for a few years now and it is finally hitting Alabama and Georgia.

But I also think it has exacerbated the P/G gap. Now, if a G strikes gold with a 2-star guy who develops, he can quickly transfer to a P school. Whereas IMO a P-recruit who doesn't make the starting lineup at their first choice will likely transfer to another P.

Also, I think age matters too. I haven't seen data on this, but someone in the media made the point that at Michigan and Washington, you have players who were 3-star guys when they came out, but guys who are now experienced and are 21 - 22 years old, and may be more physically developed than a 4- or 5- star guy at Texas or Alabama who is 18 or 19 years old.

So the landscape has changed, and in a way that makes it more favorable to the Michigans and Washingtons.

(01-06-2024 10:33 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  No question, the transfer portal has helped thin out talent among the "super teams" - Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State - who can't stockpile depth like they used to. Probably why Michigan, in three years, has gone from getting bashed by Ohio State and Alabama to being able to narrowly beat them. Clemson has been suffering for a few years now and it is finally hitting Alabama and Georgia.

But I also think it has exacerbated the P/G gap. Now, if a G strikes gold with a 2-star guy who develops, he can quickly transfer to a P school. Whereas IMO a P-recruit who doesn't make the starting lineup at their first choice will likely transfer to another P.

Also, I think age matters too. I haven't seen data on this, but someone in the media made the point that at Michigan and Washington, you have players who were 3-star guys when they came out, but guys who are now experienced and are 21 - 22 years old, and may be more physically developed than a 4- or 5- star guy at Texas or Alabama who is 18 or 19 years old.

So the landscape has changed, and in a way that makes it more favorable to the Michigans and Washingtons.

Agreed. Several of the MAC schools lost a half dozen starters. The elite in the G5 will get NIL money to go to the P4. But Alabama, Georgia, Ohio St. and Clemson can't hold onto all their talent. It will go to other P4 schools.

Things are a little flakey now because we still have the Covid year that doesn't count. Someone who started in 2019 and is 23 years old in 2024 can still be playing if he took a redshirt year. And they've made it easy to take a redshirt. Just don't play more than 4 games. Somebody from 2018 could play if they get a waiver for an injury year. Players are graduating and looking at what they can do. It will be 2026 before we get all the Covid year people out of the system.

(01-06-2024 10:33 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  No question, the transfer portal has helped thin out talent among the "super teams" - Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State - who can't stockpile depth like they used to. Probably why Michigan, in three years, has gone from getting bashed by Ohio State and Alabama to being able to narrowly beat them. Clemson has been suffering for a few years now and it is finally hitting Alabama and Georgia.

But I also think it has exacerbated the P/G gap. Now, if a G strikes gold with a 2-star guy who develops, he can quickly transfer to a P school. Whereas IMO a P-recruit who doesn't make the starting lineup at their first choice will likely transfer to another P.

Also, I think age matters too. I haven't seen data on this, but someone in the media made the point that at Michigan and Washington, you have players who were 3-star guys when they came out, but guys who are now experienced and are 21 - 22 years old, and may be more physically developed than a 4- or 5- star guy at Texas or Alabama who is 18 or 19 years old.

So the landscape has changed, and in a way that makes it more favorable to the Michigans and Washingtons.

Certainly in basketball and football, it’s a big advantage to “get old and stay old” in this current era. It makes sense from a talent evaluation standpoint, too - having a track record of watching a guy play 2 seasons of FBS football at the highest level *should* have a lot of value because it’s not about what they *could* do but what they *have* done.

Having said that, I think Matt Brown did an analysis a few months ago and found that the elite 4 and 5-star recruits were still largely ending up on the same handful of elite programs even with the prevalence of the transfer portal. The impact is more of the parity of the next level down - there aren’t as many truly abominable teams at the P4 level anymore. They might not be elite, but they’re also not total pushovers, so we’re ending up with more 5/6/7 win teams in the P4 that used to be 3/4 win teams - it’s not as massive of a gap in terms of records even though the elite teams are still largely beating those lower tier teams.