(01-04-2024 01:40 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 01:31 PM)bullet Wrote:  Other traditional powers not in the top 20:
Big 10-Nebraska, USC
SEC-Tennessee
ACC-FSU, Miami
Big 12-Colorado

Colorado a traditional power?

They’ve been bad the last 20 years. But if you look at 30-50 they are comparable to Washington, Oregon and Tennessee.



And look at how much hype they got. This would not happen if prime time was at indiana

(01-04-2024 04:57 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 01:40 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 01:31 PM)bullet Wrote:  Other traditional powers not in the top 20:
Big 10-Nebraska, USC
SEC-Tennessee
ACC-FSU, Miami
Big 12-Colorado

Colorado a traditional power?

They’ve been bad the last 20 years. But if you look at 30-50 they are comparable to Washington, Oregon and Tennessee.



And look at how much hype they got. This would not happen if prime time was at indiana

The Prime hype would have happened anywhere. Look how much hype he got at Jackson State.

Colorado had a few years of glory under McCartney, but only won three conference titles outside those years post-WWII

(01-04-2024 04:57 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 01:40 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 01:31 PM)bullet Wrote:  Other traditional powers not in the top 20:
Big 10-Nebraska, USC
SEC-Tennessee
ACC-FSU, Miami
Big 12-Colorado

Colorado a traditional power?

They’ve been bad the last 20 years. But if you look at 30-50 they are comparable to Washington, Oregon and Tennessee.



And look at how much hype they got. This would not happen if prime time was at indiana

They had a good run from 1985-98 when they were in the Big 8, but other than that they have been pretty bad. They started to decline when the Big 12 formed, and this century they've been awful.

(01-04-2024 04:57 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 01:40 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 01:31 PM)bullet Wrote:  Other traditional powers not in the top 20:
Big 10-Nebraska, USC
SEC-Tennessee
ACC-FSU, Miami
Big 12-Colorado

Colorado a traditional power?

They’ve been bad the last 20 years. But if you look at 30-50 they are comparable to Washington, Oregon and Tennessee.



And look at how much hype they got. This would not happen if prime time was at indiana

I actually think the (hypothetically) "less Coach Prime-esque program" for which Sanders had left Jackson State, the MORE hype it would have gotten. So had Prime gone to Indiana (the example you note), that would have garnered as much publicity (if not more) as when he opted to coach at Colorado. Similarly, had Prime gone to, say, Navy, that would have generated even more hype. And had he gone to, for example, BYU ... well that would have been insane and the media would have had a field day.

(01-04-2024 06:37 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 04:57 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 01:40 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 01:31 PM)bullet Wrote:  Other traditional powers not in the top 20:
Big 10-Nebraska, USC
SEC-Tennessee
ACC-FSU, Miami
Big 12-Colorado

Colorado a traditional power?

They’ve been bad the last 20 years. But if you look at 30-50 they are comparable to Washington, Oregon and Tennessee.



And look at how much hype they got. This would not happen if prime time was at indiana

I actually think the (hypothetically) "less Coach Prime-esque program" for which Sanders had left Jackson State, the MORE hype it would have gotten. So had Prime gone to Indiana (the example you note), that would have garnered as much publicity (if not more) as when he opted to coach at Colorado. Similarly, had Prime gone to, say, Navy, that would have generated even more hype. And had he gone to, for example, BYU ... well that would have been insane and the media would have had a field day.

The thought of Coach Prime at BYU makes my head hurt, but perversely it's still intriguing to contemplate. Curse you, Bill, for planting a thought I can't unthink.

(01-04-2024 07:53 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 06:37 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 04:57 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 01:40 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 01:31 PM)bullet Wrote:  Other traditional powers not in the top 20:
Big 10-Nebraska, USC
SEC-Tennessee
ACC-FSU, Miami
Big 12-Colorado

Colorado a traditional power?

They’ve been bad the last 20 years. But if you look at 30-50 they are comparable to Washington, Oregon and Tennessee.



And look at how much hype they got. This would not happen if prime time was at indiana

I actually think the (hypothetically) "less Coach Prime-esque program" for which Sanders had left Jackson State, the MORE hype it would have gotten. So had Prime gone to Indiana (the example you note), that would have garnered as much publicity (if not more) as when he opted to coach at Colorado. Similarly, had Prime gone to, say, Navy, that would have generated even more hype. And had he gone to, for example, BYU ... well that would have been insane and the media would have had a field day.

The thought of Coach Prime at BYU makes my head hurt, but perversely it's still intriguing to contemplate. Curse you, Bill, for planting a thought I can't unthink.

Well, ken d, don't tempt me to post about Uncle Dazzy riding his unicycle with his bare man torso bathed in baby oil and accompanied by his pet guinea pig and ... oh, no. Sorry.

(01-04-2024 09:02 AM)ken d Wrote:  The ACC's five year average has been trending down. From its peak at 76 in 2019, their average has declined in every year since. Single year averages peaked at 78 in 2016 and 2017, and both those years are now completely out of the trailing five year average. They have been flat for the past four years, so they may have hit bottom for now.

It was really just a couple bad coaching hires by two of their blue-bloods (Florida State and Virginia Tech). Just about every other program in the conference doesn't have much variance between their attendance numbers and their average ranking over the last 5 years.

They really just need those two programs to find their form again and become the perennial Top-25 that they're supposed to be. But yeah, schools like Wake Forest and Duke winning games isn't exactly "good for business". You need your programs with large followings to be good.

Honestly? They should just go back to a divisional format. Throw the 7 schools that want to leave + Georgia Tech in one division, and the 9 undesirables in the other. Give them a conference championship bid (that in the grand scheme of everything doesn't matter because your division will win it every year) and allow them to operate as basically a separate entity within the conference. They will get more wins, and both parties will play more meaningful games.

Division A
Clemson, FSU, VA Tech, NC State, UNC, Miami, Virginia, GA Tech

Division B
Louisville, Pitt, BC, Syracuse, Wake, Duke, Stanford, Cal, SMU

(01-05-2024 08:20 PM)thrill_house Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 09:02 AM)ken d Wrote:  The ACC's five year average has been trending down. From its peak at 76 in 2019, their average has declined in every year since. Single year averages peaked at 78 in 2016 and 2017, and both those years are now completely out of the trailing five year average. They have been flat for the past four years, so they may have hit bottom for now.

It was really just a couple bad coaching hires by two of their blue-bloods (Florida State and Virginia Tech). Just about every other program in the conference doesn't have much variance between their attendance numbers and their average ranking over the last 5 years.

They really just need those two programs to find their form again and become the perennial Top-25 that they're supposed to be. But yeah, schools like Wake Forest and Duke winning games isn't exactly "good for business". You need your programs with large followings to be good.

Honestly? They should just go back to a divisional format. Throw the 7 schools that want to leave + Georgia Tech in one division, and the 9 undesirables in the other. Give them a conference championship bid (that in the grand scheme of everything doesn't matter because your division will win it every year) and allow them to operate as basically a separate entity within the conference. They will get more wins, and both parties will play more meaningful games.

Division A
Clemson, FSU, VA Tech, NC State, UNC, Miami, Virginia, GA Tech

Division B
Louisville, Pitt, BC, Syracuse, Wake, Duke, Stanford, Cal, SMU

A very wise proposal if I may so.

(01-04-2024 05:08 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 04:57 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 01:40 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 01:31 PM)bullet Wrote:  Other traditional powers not in the top 20:
Big 10-Nebraska, USC
SEC-Tennessee
ACC-FSU, Miami
Big 12-Colorado

Colorado a traditional power?

They’ve been bad the last 20 years. But if you look at 30-50 they are comparable to Washington, Oregon and Tennessee.



And look at how much hype they got. This would not happen if prime time was at indiana

They had a good run from 1985-98 when they were in the Big 8, but other than that they have been pretty bad. They started to decline when the Big 12 formed, and this century they've been awful.

They were good in the 70s, but OU and Nebraska were better. They won the Big 12 North 4 times from 2001-2005. They dropped off after Gary Barnett left.

(01-04-2024 09:02 AM)ken d Wrote:  If there was any question about whether FBS has evolved into a P2/M2/G5, the latest Sagarin ratings are instructive, even if they aren't perfect. Sagarin's algorithm calculates three separate ratings for each D-I team. The first uses only wins and losses, the second includes scores (margin of victory) and the third applies a recency weighting with the late season games having higher weight than early season games. The overall rating is a composite of those three scores.

Based on the conference alignment for 2024, these are the average conference ratings for the past five seasons. The 10 year averages are very similar.

SEC 81
B1G 78
B12 75
ACC 73

MWC 65
AAC 63
SBC 62
MAC 60
USA 56

Simple statistical analysis reveals only two groups: P4 and G5.
P4 Avg is 76.75; Avg+/-3StdDev range is 87.25 to 66.25
All four P4 are IN that range, while none of the G5 are.

G5 Avg is 61.20; Avg+/-3StdDev range is 50.94 to 71.46
All four G5 are IN that range, while none of the P4 are.

SEC 81 |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
B1G 78 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
B12 75 |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ACC 73 |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

MWC 65 |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AAC 63 |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
SBC 62 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MAC 60 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
USA 56 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

(01-04-2024 01:18 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 09:16 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 09:10 AM)IHAVETRIED Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 09:02 AM)ken d Wrote:  If there was any question about whether FBS has evolved into a P2/M2/G5, the latest Sagarin ratings are instructive, even if they aren't perfect. Sagarin's algorithm calculates three separate ratings for each D-I team. The first uses only wins and losses, the second includes scores (margin of victory) and the third applies a recency weighting with the late season games having higher weight than early season games.
The overall rating is a composite of those three scores.

Based on the conference alignment for 2024, these are the average conference ratings for the past five seasons. The 10 year averages are very similar.

SEC 81
B1G 78
B12 75
ACC 73

MWC 65
AAC 63
SBC 62
MAC 60

An even starker contrast is in the individual team rankings. Of the 16 highest ranked teams, 13 are in either the SEC or B1G: 6 in the SEC and 7 in the B1G. The other three are Clemson (5), Notre Dame (9) and Utah (12).

The ACC's five year average has been trending down. From its peak at 76 in 2019, their average has declined in every year since. Single year averages peaked at 78 in 2016 and 2017, and both those years are now completely out of the trailing five year average. They have been flat for the past four years, so they may have hit bottom for now.

Individual team rankings:

1 Alabama (96.8)
2 Ohio State (95.6)
3 Georgia (95.4)
4 Michigan (91.6)
5 Clemson (91.5)
6 Oklahoma (88.7)
7 Penn State (88.5)
8 LSU (88.2)
9 Notre Dame (88.0)
10 Oregon (86.4)
11 Texas (85.4)
12 Utah (84.0)
13 Washington (84.0)
14 Wisconsin (82.3)
15 Texas A&M (82.2)
16 Iowa (82.0)
17 Kansas State (81.5)
18 Oklahoma State (81.0)
19 Auburn (80.8)
20 Florida (80.5)

Florida State's 5 year rank stands at #30 (77.2), a sharp drop from their 10 year average ranking of #14 (83.4) following three consecutive bad years from 2018-2021 (COVID year of 2020 is not included in the average ratings).
USA 56

Playing a 'what if' game, what happens with your analysis results if FSU and Clemson were to be aligned with, say, the SEC?

I'm on my way out the door, but I'll calculate that this afternoon and get back to you.

Moving Clemson and FSU to the SEC would increase the SEC rating by 0.4 (from 81.0 to 81.4) and it would reduce the ACC's rating by 1.6 (73.1 to 71.6). Unless they backfill with Washington State and Oregon State, any other additions to the ACC would reduce their rating even further, but not by very much.

Thanks,Ken.