(01-04-2024 03:33 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(01-03-2024 08:15 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(01-03-2024 07:51 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(01-03-2024 08:54 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-03-2024 08:43 AM)orangefan Wrote:  Which raises the question, what's the point of doing this now? If all FSU can attract is a 50% share at the SEC or B1G, their TV money would be pretty close to equal to what they're getting as a member of the ACC not factoring in what they have to pay to get out of the ACC. Wouldn't it be better to wait until they can leave without penalty and for a full share?

I have told Random Asian Guy about this Thamel quote already. It can only refer to the Big 10. The SEC is, and prides itself upon being, a conference where all members earn equal shares. Florida State if considered by the SEC would be a full share member, or they wouldn't be a member at all. This is another idiotic statement by Thamel. But that is what I have come to expect from a sports reporter from Yahoo.

And note: If Florida State became a member of the SEC their media revenue share would be equal to that of Alabama and Texas and every other member. If they received less, it would be because ESPN withheld a portion to pay their damages and exit fees to the ACC and when those were paid nothing would be withheld.

I state that only to be able to remind those who might claim that it wasn't an equal share that it was an equal share allotted though a portion of it may be garnished to pay their debts elsewhere.

With the SEC there is no buy in and there is no exit fee. The sum of what is owed to the SEC if a school departs is only equal to the unpaid amount of the COVID loan that each conference member received during the restricted attendance due to the virus.

I understand your perspective, JR.

But in my opinion Pete Thamel is the best ESPN reporter out there. I won’t ignore what he says.

It is consistent with ESPN letting the BIG get FSU divorced, so they can secure FSU with less liability.

What do you mean? ESPN already secured FSU in the ACC. ESPN let the BIG get FSU so that ESPN can re-secure FSU?

ESPN wants the ACC together until 2036. They will never allow them to leave under contract.

(01-04-2024 11:12 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  ESPN wants the ACC together until 2036. They will never allow them to leave under contract.

I would be surprised if ESPN is still together in 2036.

(01-04-2024 10:38 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 07:43 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 10:04 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 07:47 AM)tufinal4 Wrote:  You're right, the SEC has never strayed from immediate full shares for new members. I think Thamel is therefore saying between the lines that the SEC won't take FSU. It's the Big Ten if everything works out that way.

I think instead there's an excellent chance the ACC & ESPN settle this dispute with some additional money for the conference & more merit based revenue sharing to keep FSU and the others in place, no departures. This is cheaper for the networks than having to potentially pay so many ACC schools (if you believe these message boards) SEC or Big Ten money long term. Also there is a lot of sentiment college football has changed enough & gone too far. There's disillusionment, disgust over the PAC demise. It's senseless to keep doing it, I think that will drive a process to keep the ACC intact. I think FSU is a lot better off CFP wise, if this can be worked out, staying in the ACC.

You mean pay FSU more, like ESPN did Texas to keep the Big 12 around. Possible, but not as likely as other solutions imo, as if ESPN is going to increase costs, they’ll want to get something more than delaying things.

Why would they pay all of the ACC more? FSU is undervalued, not the ACC

If espn does do have an option to leave after 2027, then they have a lot of leverage to get a tolerable outcome…until the GOR goes to court.

That could include getting the many low value ACC schools to give up revenue to satisfy FSU. That’s always been the risk adjusted least cost solution to everyone. It’s irresponsible for schools like BC to not just spend $2 million annually to eliminate the risk they get nothing.


Imo moving schools to P2 can be revenue neutral, largely financed by the schools that move, and potentially from Fox or another network picking up some of the costs on the leftover ACC schools. The games on their channels should also make more

If ESPN does not extend the ACC contract, the ACC will still hold FSU's media rights until 2036.

Much cheaper to buy out of rights that have little value. Same with exit fee.

If ESPN cancels, the ACC won’t even be able to agree to a deal from CW or Ion or whatever budget network they get interest from, as too many schools will want out.

It would be similar to the PAC couldn’t get enough schools to take ESPN’s early offer

And that’s assuming FSU’s legal challenge isn’t fruitful. If that is a win for FSU, espn is definitely canceling

HUGE incentive for ACC leftovers to settle. They are espn canceling or a court ruling away from being Oregon St and WSU

What I don’t understand is that you seem to imply ESPN is behind all these moves.

I think ESPN would be completely happy to keep FSU and other high value schools in the ACC until 2036. I do see ESPN *may* consider moving certain ACC schools to the SEC in 2033 or so to keep them out of the B10/Fox but no way ESPN is behind FSU’s current legal challenge.

On the other hand, Fox/B10 have been signaling their interest to FSU. There were some reports that the B10 was vetting FSU (along with other ACC schools) and to me that was the real reason.

If so, what’s the best strategy for ESPN? If they don’t want to let FSU leave for the B10 and they don’t want to pay for moving FSU to the SEC now, then ESPN’s best move would be to let the ACC fight the legal battle till the end.

Why should ESPN drop the ACC and start a bidding war against Fox now? That doesn’t make a sense to me.

(01-05-2024 12:05 AM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 10:38 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 07:43 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 10:04 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 07:47 AM)tufinal4 Wrote:  You're right, the SEC has never strayed from immediate full shares for new members. I think Thamel is therefore saying between the lines that the SEC won't take FSU. It's the Big Ten if everything works out that way.

I think instead there's an excellent chance the ACC & ESPN settle this dispute with some additional money for the conference & more merit based revenue sharing to keep FSU and the others in place, no departures. This is cheaper for the networks than having to potentially pay so many ACC schools (if you believe these message boards) SEC or Big Ten money long term. Also there is a lot of sentiment college football has changed enough & gone too far. There's disillusionment, disgust over the PAC demise. It's senseless to keep doing it, I think that will drive a process to keep the ACC intact. I think FSU is a lot better off CFP wise, if this can be worked out, staying in the ACC.

You mean pay FSU more, like ESPN did Texas to keep the Big 12 around. Possible, but not as likely as other solutions imo, as if ESPN is going to increase costs, they’ll want to get something more than delaying things.

Why would they pay all of the ACC more? FSU is undervalued, not the ACC

If espn does do have an option to leave after 2027, then they have a lot of leverage to get a tolerable outcome…until the GOR goes to court.

That could include getting the many low value ACC schools to give up revenue to satisfy FSU. That’s always been the risk adjusted least cost solution to everyone. It’s irresponsible for schools like BC to not just spend $2 million annually to eliminate the risk they get nothing.


Imo moving schools to P2 can be revenue neutral, largely financed by the schools that move, and potentially from Fox or another network picking up some of the costs on the leftover ACC schools. The games on their channels should also make more

If ESPN does not extend the ACC contract, the ACC will still hold FSU's media rights until 2036.

Much cheaper to buy out of rights that have little value. Same with exit fee.

If ESPN cancels, the ACC won’t even be able to agree to a deal from CW or Ion or whatever budget network they get interest from, as too many schools will want out.

It would be similar to the PAC couldn’t get enough schools to take ESPN’s early offer

And that’s assuming FSU’s legal challenge isn’t fruitful. If that is a win for FSU, espn is definitely canceling

HUGE incentive for ACC leftovers to settle. They are espn canceling or a court ruling away from being Oregon St and WSU

What I don’t understand is that you seem to imply ESPN is behind all these moves.

I think ESPN would be completely happy to keep FSU and other high value schools in the ACC until 2036. I do see ESPN *may* consider moving certain ACC schools to the SEC in 2033 or so to keep them out of the B10/Fox but no way ESPN is behind FSU’s current legal challenge.

On the other hand, Fox/B10 have been signaling their interest to FSU. There were some reports that the B10 was vetting FSU (along with other ACC schools) and to me that was the real reason.

If so, what’s the best strategy for ESPN? If they don’t want to let FSU leave for the B10 and they don’t want to pay for moving FSU to the SEC now, then ESPN’s best move would be to let the ACC fight the legal battle till the end.

Why should ESPN drop the ACC and start a bidding war against Fox now? That doesn’t make a sense to me.

ESPN and FOX want to go ahead and get the upper tier settled and the CFP cranking out 3/4 of a billion a year each. And then they want their own hoops tourney and another half billion each. If the last thing preventing the final alignments is the ACC then whether without by FOX or within by FSU on behalf of ESPN, getting her done is what they are about. They need a catalyst wholly believable to be an isolated malcontent to pull it off. Got a suspect? I do.

(01-05-2024 12:05 AM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 10:38 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 07:43 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 10:04 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 07:47 AM)tufinal4 Wrote:  You're right, the SEC has never strayed from immediate full shares for new members. I think Thamel is therefore saying between the lines that the SEC won't take FSU. It's the Big Ten if everything works out that way.

I think instead there's an excellent chance the ACC & ESPN settle this dispute with some additional money for the conference & more merit based revenue sharing to keep FSU and the others in place, no departures. This is cheaper for the networks than having to potentially pay so many ACC schools (if you believe these message boards) SEC or Big Ten money long term. Also there is a lot of sentiment college football has changed enough & gone too far. There's disillusionment, disgust over the PAC demise. It's senseless to keep doing it, I think that will drive a process to keep the ACC intact. I think FSU is a lot better off CFP wise, if this can be worked out, staying in the ACC.

You mean pay FSU more, like ESPN did Texas to keep the Big 12 around. Possible, but not as likely as other solutions imo, as if ESPN is going to increase costs, they’ll want to get something more than delaying things.

Why would they pay all of the ACC more? FSU is undervalued, not the ACC

If espn does do have an option to leave after 2027, then they have a lot of leverage to get a tolerable outcome…until the GOR goes to court.

That could include getting the many low value ACC schools to give up revenue to satisfy FSU. That’s always been the risk adjusted least cost solution to everyone. It’s irresponsible for schools like BC to not just spend $2 million annually to eliminate the risk they get nothing.


Imo moving schools to P2 can be revenue neutral, largely financed by the schools that move, and potentially from Fox or another network picking up some of the costs on the leftover ACC schools. The games on their channels should also make more

If ESPN does not extend the ACC contract, the ACC will still hold FSU's media rights until 2036.

Much cheaper to buy out of rights that have little value. Same with exit fee.

If ESPN cancels, the ACC won’t even be able to agree to a deal from CW or Ion or whatever budget network they get interest from, as too many schools will want out.

It would be similar to the PAC couldn’t get enough schools to take ESPN’s early offer

And that’s assuming FSU’s legal challenge isn’t fruitful. If that is a win for FSU, espn is definitely canceling

HUGE incentive for ACC leftovers to settle. They are espn canceling or a court ruling away from being Oregon St and WSU

What I don’t understand is that you seem to imply ESPN is behind all these moves.

I think ESPN would be completely happy to keep FSU and other high value schools in the ACC until 2036. I do see ESPN *may* consider moving certain ACC schools to the SEC in 2033 or so to keep them out of the B10/Fox but no way ESPN is behind FSU’s current legal challenge.

On the other hand, Fox/B10 have been signaling their interest to FSU. There were some reports that the B10 was vetting FSU (along with other ACC schools) and to me that was the real reason.

If so, what’s the best strategy for ESPN? If they don’t want to let FSU leave for the B10 and they don’t want to pay for moving FSU to the SEC now, then ESPN’s best move would be to let the ACC fight the legal battle till the end.

Why should ESPN drop the ACC and start a bidding war against Fox now? That doesn’t make a sense to me.

You answered your own question

In isolation ESPN could sit back

But they can’t do that if the GOR is threatened and/or Fox is luring schools espn wants to retain.

ESPN now has risk. They won’t be maximalists.

ESPN has two things to use to control things. The fact that FSU and others that want out have a risk they lose GOR case. And the ability to give schools a cheap exit to P2 via canceling option

They’ll use that to try and get an acceptable resolution.

That may mean 2 to SEC and rewarding other ACC schools for making that low cost with not canceling on the remaining 15 schools. It could be getting all that they want moved to SEC rather than taking BIG offer, in exchange for canceling and thus lowering exit costs.

The most likely imo is FSU breaks out without ESPN approval or help, maybe for BIG, then espn cancels IF they get the 3 to 4 schools they want

This dance is not exactly able to be hammered out at table. It’s slow

(01-05-2024 12:19 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-05-2024 12:05 AM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 10:38 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 07:43 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 10:04 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  You mean pay FSU more, like ESPN did Texas to keep the Big 12 around. Possible, but not as likely as other solutions imo, as if ESPN is going to increase costs, they’ll want to get something more than delaying things.

Why would they pay all of the ACC more? FSU is undervalued, not the ACC

If espn does do have an option to leave after 2027, then they have a lot of leverage to get a tolerable outcome…until the GOR goes to court.

That could include getting the many low value ACC schools to give up revenue to satisfy FSU. That’s always been the risk adjusted least cost solution to everyone. It’s irresponsible for schools like BC to not just spend $2 million annually to eliminate the risk they get nothing.


Imo moving schools to P2 can be revenue neutral, largely financed by the schools that move, and potentially from Fox or another network picking up some of the costs on the leftover ACC schools. The games on their channels should also make more

If ESPN does not extend the ACC contract, the ACC will still hold FSU's media rights until 2036.

Much cheaper to buy out of rights that have little value. Same with exit fee.

If ESPN cancels, the ACC won’t even be able to agree to a deal from CW or Ion or whatever budget network they get interest from, as too many schools will want out.

It would be similar to the PAC couldn’t get enough schools to take ESPN’s early offer

And that’s assuming FSU’s legal challenge isn’t fruitful. If that is a win for FSU, espn is definitely canceling

HUGE incentive for ACC leftovers to settle. They are espn canceling or a court ruling away from being Oregon St and WSU

What I don’t understand is that you seem to imply ESPN is behind all these moves.

I think ESPN would be completely happy to keep FSU and other high value schools in the ACC until 2036. I do see ESPN *may* consider moving certain ACC schools to the SEC in 2033 or so to keep them out of the B10/Fox but no way ESPN is behind FSU’s current legal challenge.

On the other hand, Fox/B10 have been signaling their interest to FSU. There were some reports that the B10 was vetting FSU (along with other ACC schools) and to me that was the real reason.

If so, what’s the best strategy for ESPN? If they don’t want to let FSU leave for the B10 and they don’t want to pay for moving FSU to the SEC now, then ESPN’s best move would be to let the ACC fight the legal battle till the end.

Why should ESPN drop the ACC and start a bidding war against Fox now? That doesn’t make a sense to me.

ESPN and FOX want to go ahead and get the upper tier settled and the CFP cranking out 3/4 of a billion a year each. And then they want their own hoops tourney and another half billion each. If the last thing preventing the final alignments is the ACC then whether without by FOX or within by FSU on behalf of ESPN, getting her done is what they are about. They need a catalyst wholly believable to be an isolated malcontent to pull it off. Got a suspect? I do.

Maybe that’s what Fox is doing.

I am not convinced ESPN’s final alignment and how to get there is identical to Fox’s vision.

(01-05-2024 12:31 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(01-05-2024 12:05 AM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 10:38 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 07:43 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 10:04 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  You mean pay FSU more, like ESPN did Texas to keep the Big 12 around. Possible, but not as likely as other solutions imo, as if ESPN is going to increase costs, they’ll want to get something more than delaying things.

Why would they pay all of the ACC more? FSU is undervalued, not the ACC

If espn does do have an option to leave after 2027, then they have a lot of leverage to get a tolerable outcome…until the GOR goes to court.

That could include getting the many low value ACC schools to give up revenue to satisfy FSU. That’s always been the risk adjusted least cost solution to everyone. It’s irresponsible for schools like BC to not just spend $2 million annually to eliminate the risk they get nothing.


Imo moving schools to P2 can be revenue neutral, largely financed by the schools that move, and potentially from Fox or another network picking up some of the costs on the leftover ACC schools. The games on their channels should also make more

If ESPN does not extend the ACC contract, the ACC will still hold FSU's media rights until 2036.

Much cheaper to buy out of rights that have little value. Same with exit fee.

If ESPN cancels, the ACC won’t even be able to agree to a deal from CW or Ion or whatever budget network they get interest from, as too many schools will want out.

It would be similar to the PAC couldn’t get enough schools to take ESPN’s early offer

And that’s assuming FSU’s legal challenge isn’t fruitful. If that is a win for FSU, espn is definitely canceling

HUGE incentive for ACC leftovers to settle. They are espn canceling or a court ruling away from being Oregon St and WSU

What I don’t understand is that you seem to imply ESPN is behind all these moves.

I think ESPN would be completely happy to keep FSU and other high value schools in the ACC until 2036. I do see ESPN *may* consider moving certain ACC schools to the SEC in 2033 or so to keep them out of the B10/Fox but no way ESPN is behind FSU’s current legal challenge.

On the other hand, Fox/B10 have been signaling their interest to FSU. There were some reports that the B10 was vetting FSU (along with other ACC schools) and to me that was the real reason.

If so, what’s the best strategy for ESPN? If they don’t want to let FSU leave for the B10 and they don’t want to pay for moving FSU to the SEC now, then ESPN’s best move would be to let the ACC fight the legal battle till the end.

Why should ESPN drop the ACC and start a bidding war against Fox now? That doesn’t make a sense to me.

You answered your own question

In isolation ESPN could sit back

But they can’t do that if the GOR is threatened and/or Fox is luring schools espn wants to retain.

ESPN now has risk. They won’t be maximalists.

ESPN has two things to use to control things. The fact that FSU and others that want out have a risk they lose GOR case. And the ability to give schools a cheap exit to P2 via canceling option

They’ll use that to try and get an acceptable resolution.

That may mean 2 to SEC and rewarding other ACC schools for making that low cost with not canceling on the remaining 15 schools. It could be getting all that they want moved to SEC rather than taking BIG offer, in exchange for canceling and thus lowering exit costs.

The most likely imo is FSU breaks out without ESPN approval or help, maybe for BIG, then espn cancels IF they get the 3 to 4 schools they want

This dance is not exactly able to be hammered out at table. It’s slow

First of all, I am not even sure how easily ESPN can cancel the option in 2027 unless I read the actual media contact which may contain conditions and penalties for canceling. But let’s assume it’s as easy as you implied.

The real risk ESPN would face is the potential depreciation of ACCN, which was set up by ESPN. ACCN is a real TV channel and it was the reason why ESPN wanted the contract extension to begin with.

ESPN didn’t lose anything by not renewing the Pac contract, and it wouldn’t lose anything if it discontinues the B12 contract at 2030. But if ESPN drops the ACC in 2027, then it would lose the income stream from ACCN ($9x15 =$135 million for 2022 and it would only grow with the addition of Calford and SMU).

Personally I think the most likely outcome is FSU and potentially one more ACC school leave for the B10 and the ACC/ESPN continues until 2030s. But obviously this depends on the outcome of the legal case, for which I think the ACC has a very good chance.

(01-05-2024 01:09 AM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(01-05-2024 12:31 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(01-05-2024 12:05 AM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 10:38 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 07:43 PM)XLance Wrote:  If ESPN does not extend the ACC contract, the ACC will still hold FSU's media rights until 2036.

Much cheaper to buy out of rights that have little value. Same with exit fee.

If ESPN cancels, the ACC won’t even be able to agree to a deal from CW or Ion or whatever budget network they get interest from, as too many schools will want out.

It would be similar to the PAC couldn’t get enough schools to take ESPN’s early offer

And that’s assuming FSU’s legal challenge isn’t fruitful. If that is a win for FSU, espn is definitely canceling

HUGE incentive for ACC leftovers to settle. They are espn canceling or a court ruling away from being Oregon St and WSU

What I don’t understand is that you seem to imply ESPN is behind all these moves.

I think ESPN would be completely happy to keep FSU and other high value schools in the ACC until 2036. I do see ESPN *may* consider moving certain ACC schools to the SEC in 2033 or so to keep them out of the B10/Fox but no way ESPN is behind FSU’s current legal challenge.

On the other hand, Fox/B10 have been signaling their interest to FSU. There were some reports that the B10 was vetting FSU (along with other ACC schools) and to me that was the real reason.

If so, what’s the best strategy for ESPN? If they don’t want to let FSU leave for the B10 and they don’t want to pay for moving FSU to the SEC now, then ESPN’s best move would be to let the ACC fight the legal battle till the end.

Why should ESPN drop the ACC and start a bidding war against Fox now? That doesn’t make a sense to me.

You answered your own question

In isolation ESPN could sit back

But they can’t do that if the GOR is threatened and/or Fox is luring schools espn wants to retain.

ESPN now has risk. They won’t be maximalists.

ESPN has two things to use to control things. The fact that FSU and others that want out have a risk they lose GOR case. And the ability to give schools a cheap exit to P2 via canceling option

They’ll use that to try and get an acceptable resolution.

That may mean 2 to SEC and rewarding other ACC schools for making that low cost with not canceling on the remaining 15 schools. It could be getting all that they want moved to SEC rather than taking BIG offer, in exchange for canceling and thus lowering exit costs.

The most likely imo is FSU breaks out without ESPN approval or help, maybe for BIG, then espn cancels IF they get the 3 to 4 schools they want

This dance is not exactly able to be hammered out at table. It’s slow

First of all, I am not even sure how easily ESPN can cancel the option in 2027 unless I read the actual media contact which may contain conditions and penalties for canceling. But let’s assume it’s as easy as you implied.

The real risk ESPN would face is the potential depreciation of ACCN, which was set up by ESPN. ACCN is a real TV channel and it was the reason why ESPN wanted the contract extension to begin with.

Personally I think the most likely outcome is FSU and potentially one more ACC school leave for the B10 and the ACC/ESPN continues until 2030s. But obviously this depends on the outcome of the legal case, for which I think the ACC has a very good chance.

They also had LHN, a network in which the costs of creating have been repurposed and/or eaten.

ACC Network costs are largely recoverable and repurposed…like used on a different T3 rights network of a conference with even larger footprint making as much in revenue as ACCN.

With this clear reason to keep the ACC, the ACCN as you claim, ESPN asked for an extension in Aug 2021 and haven’t exercised it. All while some ACC fans claim ESPN is getting a good deal too?

Doesn’t add up. Does ESPN have other plans? Because it’s no longer a free option.

The date of the extension request is notable- after the The Alliance left ESPN with a Big 12. Did the ACC deny ESPN from adding Big 12 (only later to preemptively backfill with Big 12 rejects against ESPN’s wishes). They also voted against ESPN on CFP expansion

It’s getting very interesting

(01-05-2024 02:09 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(01-05-2024 01:09 AM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(01-05-2024 12:31 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(01-05-2024 12:05 AM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(01-04-2024 10:38 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  Much cheaper to buy out of rights that have little value. Same with exit fee.

If ESPN cancels, the ACC won’t even be able to agree to a deal from CW or Ion or whatever budget network they get interest from, as too many schools will want out.

It would be similar to the PAC couldn’t get enough schools to take ESPN’s early offer

And that’s assuming FSU’s legal challenge isn’t fruitful. If that is a win for FSU, espn is definitely canceling

HUGE incentive for ACC leftovers to settle. They are espn canceling or a court ruling away from being Oregon St and WSU

What I don’t understand is that you seem to imply ESPN is behind all these moves.

I think ESPN would be completely happy to keep FSU and other high value schools in the ACC until 2036. I do see ESPN *may* consider moving certain ACC schools to the SEC in 2033 or so to keep them out of the B10/Fox but no way ESPN is behind FSU’s current legal challenge.

On the other hand, Fox/B10 have been signaling their interest to FSU. There were some reports that the B10 was vetting FSU (along with other ACC schools) and to me that was the real reason.

If so, what’s the best strategy for ESPN? If they don’t want to let FSU leave for the B10 and they don’t want to pay for moving FSU to the SEC now, then ESPN’s best move would be to let the ACC fight the legal battle till the end.

Why should ESPN drop the ACC and start a bidding war against Fox now? That doesn’t make a sense to me.

You answered your own question

In isolation ESPN could sit back

But they can’t do that if the GOR is threatened and/or Fox is luring schools espn wants to retain.

ESPN now has risk. They won’t be maximalists.

ESPN has two things to use to control things. The fact that FSU and others that want out have a risk they lose GOR case. And the ability to give schools a cheap exit to P2 via canceling option

They’ll use that to try and get an acceptable resolution.

That may mean 2 to SEC and rewarding other ACC schools for making that low cost with not canceling on the remaining 15 schools. It could be getting all that they want moved to SEC rather than taking BIG offer, in exchange for canceling and thus lowering exit costs.

The most likely imo is FSU breaks out without ESPN approval or help, maybe for BIG, then espn cancels IF they get the 3 to 4 schools they want

This dance is not exactly able to be hammered out at table. It’s slow

First of all, I am not even sure how easily ESPN can cancel the option in 2027 unless I read the actual media contact which may contain conditions and penalties for canceling. But let’s assume it’s as easy as you implied.

The real risk ESPN would face is the potential depreciation of ACCN, which was set up by ESPN. ACCN is a real TV channel and it was the reason why ESPN wanted the contract extension to begin with.

Personally I think the most likely outcome is FSU and potentially one more ACC school leave for the B10 and the ACC/ESPN continues until 2030s. But obviously this depends on the outcome of the legal case, for which I think the ACC has a very good chance.

They also had LHN, a network in which the costs of creating have been repurposed and/or eaten.

ACC Network costs are largely recoverable and repurposed…like used on a different T3 rights network of a conference with even larger footprint making as much in revenue as ACCN.

With this clear reason to keep the ACC, the ACCN as you claim, ESPN asked for an extension in Aug 2021 and haven’t exercised it. All while some ACC fans claim ESPN is getting a good deal too?

Doesn’t add up. Does ESPN have other plans? Because it’s no longer a free option.

The date of the extension request is notable- after the The Alliance left ESPN with a Big 12. Did the ACC deny ESPN from adding Big 12 (only later to preemptively backfill with Big 12 rejects against ESPN’s wishes). They also voted against ESPN on CFP expansion

It’s getting very interesting

Was the LHN profitable? I know it was for Texas but I thought ESPN didn't make much money out of it.

In the end, it's all business. ESPN does what's best for itself. The extension in Aug. 2021 was beneficial for ESPN in uncertain time ahead of back to normal football season.

The alliance was a bad mistake by Jim Phillips and I have been very critical of him on that point. I had also posted many times the ACC should consider adding the B12 teams (before and after the OUT news). That was another mistake by the ACC.

But Phillips came to his senses and now very closely follows ESPN. The westward expansion was a good move. (and no, Stanford and Cal were not Big 12 rejects. Please stop that nonsense.)

I believe ACCN makes money for both ACC and ESPN. My understanding is that ESPN and the ACC split the money 50:50. In 2021-2022, each ACC school received $9M from ACCN, meaning ESPN must have received $135 million as well. Comcast started carrying the ACCN in 2022 and adding Stanford, Cal and SMU would only increase the revenue for ESPN.

So while ESPN may had been a little hesitant in 2021, I don't predict that ESPN would drop the ACC contract. It's just not in their best interest.

(01-05-2024 06:26 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(01-05-2024 02:09 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(01-05-2024 01:09 AM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(01-05-2024 12:31 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(01-05-2024 12:05 AM)random asian guy Wrote:  What I don’t understand is that you seem to imply ESPN is behind all these moves.

I think ESPN would be completely happy to keep FSU and other high value schools in the ACC until 2036. I do see ESPN *may* consider moving certain ACC schools to the SEC in 2033 or so to keep them out of the B10/Fox but no way ESPN is behind FSU’s current legal challenge.

On the other hand, Fox/B10 have been signaling their interest to FSU. There were some reports that the B10 was vetting FSU (along with other ACC schools) and to me that was the real reason.

If so, what’s the best strategy for ESPN? If they don’t want to let FSU leave for the B10 and they don’t want to pay for moving FSU to the SEC now, then ESPN’s best move would be to let the ACC fight the legal battle till the end.

Why should ESPN drop the ACC and start a bidding war against Fox now? That doesn’t make a sense to me.

You answered your own question

In isolation ESPN could sit back

But they can’t do that if the GOR is threatened and/or Fox is luring schools espn wants to retain.

ESPN now has risk. They won’t be maximalists.

ESPN has two things to use to control things. The fact that FSU and others that want out have a risk they lose GOR case. And the ability to give schools a cheap exit to P2 via canceling option

They’ll use that to try and get an acceptable resolution.

That may mean 2 to SEC and rewarding other ACC schools for making that low cost with not canceling on the remaining 15 schools. It could be getting all that they want moved to SEC rather than taking BIG offer, in exchange for canceling and thus lowering exit costs.

The most likely imo is FSU breaks out without ESPN approval or help, maybe for BIG, then espn cancels IF they get the 3 to 4 schools they want

This dance is not exactly able to be hammered out at table. It’s slow

First of all, I am not even sure how easily ESPN can cancel the option in 2027 unless I read the actual media contact which may contain conditions and penalties for canceling. But let’s assume it’s as easy as you implied.

The real risk ESPN would face is the potential depreciation of ACCN, which was set up by ESPN. ACCN is a real TV channel and it was the reason why ESPN wanted the contract extension to begin with.

Personally I think the most likely outcome is FSU and potentially one more ACC school leave for the B10 and the ACC/ESPN continues until 2030s. But obviously this depends on the outcome of the legal case, for which I think the ACC has a very good chance.

They also had LHN, a network in which the costs of creating have been repurposed and/or eaten.

ACC Network costs are largely recoverable and repurposed…like used on a different T3 rights network of a conference with even larger footprint making as much in revenue as ACCN.

With this clear reason to keep the ACC, the ACCN as you claim, ESPN asked for an extension in Aug 2021 and haven’t exercised it. All while some ACC fans claim ESPN is getting a good deal too?

Doesn’t add up. Does ESPN have other plans? Because it’s no longer a free option.

The date of the extension request is notable- after the The Alliance left ESPN with a Big 12. Did the ACC deny ESPN from adding Big 12 (only later to preemptively backfill with Big 12 rejects against ESPN’s wishes). They also voted against ESPN on CFP expansion

It’s getting very interesting

Was the LHN profitable? I know it was for Texas but I thought ESPN didn't make much money out of it.

In the end, it's all business. ESPN does what's best for itself. The extension in Aug. 2021 was beneficial for ESPN in uncertain time ahead of back to normal football season.

The alliance was a bad mistake by Jim Phillips and I have been very critical of him on that point. I had also posted many times the ACC should consider adding the B12 teams (before and after the OUT news). That was another mistake by the ACC.

But Phillips came to his senses and now very closely follows ESPN. The westward expansion was a good move. (and no, Stanford and Cal were not Big 12 rejects. Please stop that nonsense.)

I believe ACCN makes money for both ACC and ESPN. My understanding is that ESPN and the ACC split the money 50:50. In 2021-2022, each ACC school received $9M from ACCN, meaning ESPN must have received $135 million as well. Comcast started carrying the ACCN in 2022 and adding Stanford, Cal and SMU would only increase the revenue for ESPN.

So while ESPN may had been a little hesitant in 2021, I don't predict that ESPN would drop the ACC contract. It's just not in their best interest.

You split the NET profits 50/50. Your overhead is in maintaining local venue uplinks. Their overhead is in production and broadcast. When they have deducted their overhead costs, they split the NET profit with you 50/50. You can work the math backwards to figure out what the total NET profit was. Now add your new markets in California and Texas and that NET will go up.

Maybe DavidSt was onto something?


FBI notified about death threats toward CFP members after FSU exclusion
https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...-exclusion

(01-05-2024 06:26 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(01-05-2024 02:09 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(01-05-2024 01:09 AM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(01-05-2024 12:31 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(01-05-2024 12:05 AM)random asian guy Wrote:  What I don’t understand is that you seem to imply ESPN is behind all these moves.

I think ESPN would be completely happy to keep FSU and other high value schools in the ACC until 2036. I do see ESPN *may* consider moving certain ACC schools to the SEC in 2033 or so to keep them out of the B10/Fox but no way ESPN is behind FSU’s current legal challenge.

On the other hand, Fox/B10 have been signaling their interest to FSU. There were some reports that the B10 was vetting FSU (along with other ACC schools) and to me that was the real reason.

If so, what’s the best strategy for ESPN? If they don’t want to let FSU leave for the B10 and they don’t want to pay for moving FSU to the SEC now, then ESPN’s best move would be to let the ACC fight the legal battle till the end.

Why should ESPN drop the ACC and start a bidding war against Fox now? That doesn’t make a sense to me.

You answered your own question

In isolation ESPN could sit back

But they can’t do that if the GOR is threatened and/or Fox is luring schools espn wants to retain.

ESPN now has risk. They won’t be maximalists.

ESPN has two things to use to control things. The fact that FSU and others that want out have a risk they lose GOR case. And the ability to give schools a cheap exit to P2 via canceling option

They’ll use that to try and get an acceptable resolution.

That may mean 2 to SEC and rewarding other ACC schools for making that low cost with not canceling on the remaining 15 schools. It could be getting all that they want moved to SEC rather than taking BIG offer, in exchange for canceling and thus lowering exit costs.

The most likely imo is FSU breaks out without ESPN approval or help, maybe for BIG, then espn cancels IF they get the 3 to 4 schools they want

This dance is not exactly able to be hammered out at table. It’s slow

First of all, I am not even sure how easily ESPN can cancel the option in 2027 unless I read the actual media contact which may contain conditions and penalties for canceling. But let’s assume it’s as easy as you implied.

The real risk ESPN would face is the potential depreciation of ACCN, which was set up by ESPN. ACCN is a real TV channel and it was the reason why ESPN wanted the contract extension to begin with.

Personally I think the most likely outcome is FSU and potentially one more ACC school leave for the B10 and the ACC/ESPN continues until 2030s. But obviously this depends on the outcome of the legal case, for which I think the ACC has a very good chance.

They also had LHN, a network in which the costs of creating have been repurposed and/or eaten.

ACC Network costs are largely recoverable and repurposed…like used on a different T3 rights network of a conference with even larger footprint making as much in revenue as ACCN.

With this clear reason to keep the ACC, the ACCN as you claim, ESPN asked for an extension in Aug 2021 and haven’t exercised it. All while some ACC fans claim ESPN is getting a good deal too?

Doesn’t add up. Does ESPN have other plans? Because it’s no longer a free option.

The date of the extension request is notable- after the The Alliance left ESPN with a Big 12. Did the ACC deny ESPN from adding Big 12 (only later to preemptively backfill with Big 12 rejects against ESPN’s wishes). They also voted against ESPN on CFP expansion

It’s getting very interesting

Was the LHN profitable? I know it was for Texas but I thought ESPN didn't make much money out of it.

In the end, it's all business. ESPN does what's best for itself. The extension in Aug. 2021 was beneficial for ESPN in uncertain time ahead of back to normal football season.

The alliance was a bad mistake by Jim Phillips and I have been very critical of him on that point. I had also posted many times the ACC should consider adding the B12 teams (before and after the OUT news). That was another mistake by the ACC.

But Phillips came to his senses and now very closely follows ESPN. The westward expansion was a good move. (and no, Stanford and Cal were not Big 12 rejects. Please stop that nonsense.)

I believe ACCN makes money for both ACC and ESPN. My understanding is that ESPN and the ACC split the money 50:50. In 2021-2022, each ACC school received $9M from ACCN, meaning ESPN must have received $135 million as well. Comcast started carrying the ACCN in 2022 and adding Stanford, Cal and SMU would only increase the revenue for ESPN.

So while ESPN may had been a little hesitant in 2021, I don't predict that ESPN would drop the ACC contract. It's just not in their best interest.

Yes the LHN was profitable for ESPN.

(01-02-2024 03:17 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(01-02-2024 11:13 AM)mikeinsec127 Wrote:  I just don't see FSU as the prime Fla expansion candidate. The law suits are unbecoming. The BIG does not like to see its dirty laundry aired in open court. Plus there is little upside to taking FSU beyond its sports revenue being above the BIG average. I also don't think the sEC doubles up in its states. SO FSU and Clemson are BIG or bust. My bet is bust. Both end up in the B12.

We will happily double up with FSU and Clemson, and UNC/Miami would nicely tie a bow on entire region, but those are the only schools that are worth any consideration at all today from the P2. The only Big 12 schools that might get consideration in the future, for different reasons, are KU, CU, and ASU, but none of them make the cut using the current "Missouri" or "UCLA" line.

You think the SEC will go to 3 schools in Fla but stay at 2 in Tx...interesting.

(01-08-2024 09:41 PM)mikeinsec127 Wrote:  

(01-02-2024 03:17 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(01-02-2024 11:13 AM)mikeinsec127 Wrote:  I just don't see FSU as the prime Fla expansion candidate. The law suits are unbecoming. The BIG does not like to see its dirty laundry aired in open court. Plus there is little upside to taking FSU beyond its sports revenue being above the BIG average. I also don't think the sEC doubles up in its states. SO FSU and Clemson are BIG or bust. My bet is bust. Both end up in the B12.

We will happily double up with FSU and Clemson, and UNC/Miami would nicely tie a bow on entire region, but those are the only schools that are worth any consideration at all today from the P2. The only Big 12 schools that might get consideration in the future, for different reasons, are KU, CU, and ASU, but none of them make the cut using the current "Missouri" or "UCLA" line.

You think the SEC will go to 3 schools in Fla but stay at 2 in Tx...interesting.

Well who's the 3rd school in Florida vs. the 3rd school in Texas? That's why. Miami has won many national championships in the past, TCU has never won one to my knowledge. Miami has a longer history playing at the top level of FBS football. TCU just played for the national championship but I'd almost take UCF over TCU if I was the Big Ten because they're a public university with way more students and both are in the Big 12 and on equal footing now.

(01-09-2024 06:39 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(01-08-2024 09:41 PM)mikeinsec127 Wrote:  

(01-02-2024 03:17 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(01-02-2024 11:13 AM)mikeinsec127 Wrote:  I just don't see FSU as the prime Fla expansion candidate. The law suits are unbecoming. The BIG does not like to see its dirty laundry aired in open court. Plus there is little upside to taking FSU beyond its sports revenue being above the BIG average. I also don't think the sEC doubles up in its states. SO FSU and Clemson are BIG or bust. My bet is bust. Both end up in the B12.

We will happily double up with FSU and Clemson, and UNC/Miami would nicely tie a bow on entire region, but those are the only schools that are worth any consideration at all today from the P2. The only Big 12 schools that might get consideration in the future, for different reasons, are KU, CU, and ASU, but none of them make the cut using the current "Missouri" or "UCLA" line.

You think the SEC will go to 3 schools in Fla but stay at 2 in Tx...interesting.

Well who's the 3rd school in Florida vs. the 3rd school in Texas? That's why. Miami has won many national championships in the past, TCU has never won one to my knowledge. Miami has a longer history playing at the top level of FBS football. TCU just played for the national championship but I'd almost take UCF over TCU if I was the Big Ten because they're a public university with way more students and both are in the Big 12 and on equal footing now.

TCU has zero 'modern' championships. They claim the 1935 and 1938 championships. The former claim is sketchy (AFCA, Williamson System), the latter claim is solid (AFCA, AP Poll, Helms Athletic Foundation, National Championship Foundation, Williamson System).