(12-30-2023 07:06 PM)Garrettabc Wrote:  

(12-30-2023 06:55 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(12-30-2023 02:56 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(12-30-2023 05:08 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-30-2023 03:11 AM)Big Ron Buckeye Wrote:  There were other outlets saying the same thing and the list seemed reasonable to me. I viewed it as starting point of schools to consider

Debating the merits of Florida State, Miami and Georgia Tech are fair game. But, just because UNC and UVa have a standing offer from the Big 10, as by the way in the past so has Vanderbilt, doesn't mean they will act upon them. UNC has one from the SEC and with a partner. In 2011 that partner was Duke. That may have changed. But that doesn't mean they are going to the SEC either.

I'm astonished that it isn't sinking in that Stanford and Cal fit very well with Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, and Miami, a group which Boston College, Syracuse, and Wake Forest feel at home with as well. And that's not to mention how well their vision of athletics and academics fit with Notre Dame. S.M.U. is a bit novel, but then so too is Louisville.

Florida State on the other hand loves diamond sports and their fans support those religiously. I can understand their frustration with ESPN, but they aren't going to commit consumer base suicide unless the SEC doesn't ever offer them. They also want to keep their association with Clemson. Somehow neither of those fits to well with the Big 10 profile. There is much fan fiction going on with both the SEC and Big 10 fan bases.

Your Minnesota YouTube mouthpiece spoke the truth when he said the cause of this was the court cases and the heavy overhead they were adding to funding the upper tier sports. Travel is a good deal of that overhead, especially for non-revenue sports. That little facet tells me that transcontinental conferences will have a lot more overhead going forward. Clusters of 5 or 6 schools in a region will be needed.

The SEC wants to stay regional for that reason. They stand at 16 and have 4 slots to 20 and 8 slots to 24. Most games at SEC venues are closer for ACC schools, especially the Southern ones than they are Big 10 schools. I'd say Virginia was a wash if the SEC were adding a group of 6 or more from the ACC. Baseball and Softball are epically strong in the SEC. Fans are the customer base and donors are locally oriented as well. Presidents didn't decide the issues at Texas and Oklahoma. Fans and Donors did because no product alienates its customer base. Customers don't like to fly to football games. They prefer to drive. They certainly don't fly to basketball games or baseball games or softball games or non-revenue sports and if their child is playing that gets expensive and old quickly.

Frankly, I don't take FSU to the Big 10 seriously, and for all of those reasons and more.

ESPN can't take sides between the ACC and SEC. But if the ACC is cracked, or about to be they can certainly express a preference to keep their product and make the transition easier on them. Clemson and Florida State fit the SEC. They don't fit the Big 10. Tallahassee isn't easy for Big 10 teams to get to; it is surrounded by SEC and ACC fans with few Big 10 alums in a region where there are few Big 10 alums. Miami is plausible, and other than being private fits the Big 10. I can believe Miami. Georgia Tech is in a massive city in which they carry about 48% of the viewership for college sports. Georgia carries about 50% of it and the rest is divided between Clemson, Tennessee, Auburn, and Alabama. But Since Georgia carries 85% of the rest of the state the SEC's interest in Georgia Tech, a former member who chose to leave, may not be strong. I can see Tech being interested in a Big 10 invite and they would be like adding another Purdue. Virginia could be a tossup especially if UNC opts for an in-state travel partner to the SEC. But that only happens if the ACC is imploding. Otherwise, their inclination will be to stick it out in the ACC.

I've witnessed this all before, and twice. In 2011 and now. Every Big 10 fan is so sold on the Academic superiority of the Big 10 that they are absolutely convinced that any AAU school anywhere else pines to be among them. Yet the ACC's aggregate academic rating is higher than that of the Big 10 and would certainly be amplified by Stanford and California. You landed Rutgers and Maryland for markets. The SEC landed Texas A&M and Missouri. The SEC landed Texas and Oklahoma worth 2.3 billion in their ability to impact commerce in their regions, your landed 890 million dollars' worth of impact with the 2 Los Angeles based schools and added another 900 million with Oregon and Washington. Until those deals were announced the Big 10 pundits where wholly convinced that Texas would choose the PAC 12 or Big 10 over any conference, especially the SEC. But consumer base and business models trumped academics. Why? Texas is strong enough to stand on its own academically as are any AAU schools. And now that the courts are making sports professional in nature the divide between athletics and academics is vastly greater than the amateur mode championed by the NCAA and Big 10.

I believe the ACC will stick together eventually losing Florida State, Clemson, and possibly Miami. I don't think any of the rest of them are going anywhere. I think they'll focus on non-revenue sports and hoops and be happy to play baseball and softball. I think Notre Dame will wangle deals with both the SEC, Big 10 and ACC and that they'll keep hockey in the Big 10.

I believe that the SEC could move to 18 with Clemson and Florida State and that beyond that Kansas might hold some interest. Especially if Vanderbilt opted for the new ACC format.

And I see no reason for the SEC or Big 10 to move to 24 unless networks just want the added inventory carrying those brands.

The Big 10 could move to 20 with Miami and Georgia Tech and pick up two great cities but the money is not there.

My point is don't bank on UVa and UNC, particularly UNC. And there are more standing offers out there than yours.

The Big 10 was going to be a compelling destination for Notre Dame, but it didn't happen. For Texas, and it didn't happen, and UNC will be the same. Now Notre Dame is not in the SEC and UNC may never be either, but that doesn't mean they are headed to the Big 10. And we both know that there's not a damn thing the Big 10 can do to land FSU AAU status. You can tell them what they need to do but unless the metrics spit their name out for consideration and a vote there is no guarantee they make it, certainly not within the next 10 years.

Occam's razor says the simplest moves. Well, if FSU really wants out the simplest move is to the SEC, ESPN or not. Clemson has been a charter member of the ACC. I'm not convinced they would leave if they had the chance. If Vanderbilt stays Kansas could pair up with FSU. If Vanderbilt prefers the vision of the ACC in comes FSU and the SEC remains at 16 with more games in Florida, which is a priority.

Now as much as this board loves its theories, and did in 2011, something along the lines of what I laid out above is what is most likely to happen. If it doesn't it will be because the networks wanted more schools branded Big 10 or SEC.

You sound like a Johnny one-note JR. Beating the same drum over and over.

And I almost agree with you.
I think you are right about Florida State (even if it is a defensive move on ESPN/SEC's part).
It's #18 that I continually have a problem with. First of all, I don't think it would be Clemson for multiple reasons. I also don't think it would be Kansas or any other Big 12 school. For the most part it would have to be an ACC school and I think your choices are Louisville or Miami. That gives the SEC an 18 team conference to match the B1G (within the same footprint, which is extremely important for the SEC).

The ACC picks up Tulane and USF and eventually Notre Dame (they will eventually need to join a conference to participate in the SFP) to also get to an 18 team conference.
ESPN becomes the biggest winner.

Reasons I can think of in favor of Clemson:

Big Brand
TV ratings would be in top 5 of SEC
81500 fans, every game
Deep South but National Draw
They are worth the dilution of shares to add them
Culturally have a ton in common with SEC schools
Good offensive and defensive move for us, much like FSU

Reasons against

We already have a school in South Carolina


I, for one, think that the pros FAR outweigh the cons, and I look forward to welcoming Clemson into the SEC. 2026? 2036? I know it matters a lot to Clemson, but I’m not too bothered about the exact timing of it.

Depending on how the schedules would work out, adding Clemson could be a good thing or throw a wrench in the plans. At 17, you can do a 1-8-8 (1 annual, 8 biannual) or 3 divisions of 6.

It's not an issue the SEC always adds in pairs.

(12-30-2023 11:34 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(12-30-2023 11:19 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-30-2023 10:34 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(12-30-2023 05:27 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  Any of the Magnificent 7 schools will leave the ACC in a heartbeat if it gets a call-up and sees the door ajar. It's fair to say, based on evidence, that Florida State, Clemson, and North Carolina show the most eagerness, with Miami also in that picture

I expect the first wave to consist of 2-4 schools, followed by a second wave—later, after exit prices have a chance to drop—consisting of at least 4 more.

The first wave is well defined. Georgia Tech, if the call arrives, is more likely a second-wave team.

Who exactly goes to which P2 league is less settled. This will depend on the backstage analyzing and strategizing of conferences with networks. We can stand outside and try to guess, but we're not privy to those discussions. We'll see.

People act like there are endless TV windows for conferences. Nobody is bumping Michigan or Bama games for Georgia Tech and I dare say Carolina. Sorry, the math doesn’t work. The Big Ten and SEC are pretty damn full at this point. Florida State makes sense. Notre Dame makes sense. Clemson makes some sense for the SEC. Beyond that, I have strong doubts.

You miss the point. ABC can air up to 3 SEC games at their discretion. ESPN can do the same. ESPN2 can do the same as well as ESPNU and the SECN carries 2 a week. Do the math on the potential. That's 18 slots a weekend just for Disney. 36 schools would be involved. Let's say 3 from the Big 12 for late night windows, since FOX will air them on FS1 and FOX54. CBS has the Big 10 2:30, NBC has some plus Notre Dame. ESPN will gladly air the late games. Each week the ACCN will air a pair of ACC games which don't impact the SEC. Take 3 top ACC games for time slots spread across the networks and the demand for the SEC games is down to 12. It takes 24 schools to fill out the need for 12. Subtract the byes and add the OOC games which are home games, and 12 slots wouldn't have enough inventory. Remember heading into the future the games which can't pull 3 million viewers will likely be streamed. FOX, FS1/CBS/NBC/BTN face similar demands. It is quite possible that expanding with better brands, few though they may be fills the need and the Big 12 inventory is split between FOX and ESPN. More consolidation is likely and if it is network driven it will be either made with unequal shares as FOX has done or pro rata as ESPN is set up to do with the SEC. Time slots are 11, 2:30 to 3, 6 and 9 or thereabouts depending upon the channel and network. The goal is 3 million or better in non prime slots and 5 million or better in prime with aspirations for 12 to 15 million for really big games. Only more consolidation gets them there.

I think I’m making the point it doesn’t benefit ESPN (ABC) to pay six teams a ton of money and then air them head-to-head-to-head. That’s why having the lesser viewed teams making less makes sense.

If you want to argue the top 32 consolidate like the NFL that’s one thing that absolutely maximizes profit. But two 24-team NFL’s doesn’t make sense, never has, and there are plenty of examples of its failure. This is another reason the mythical “P3” is even more laughable.

If they would go ahead and create their P1, that would be great.

#20 is difficult imo.

Miami(fla)-I find it very hard to believe ESPN/SEC allows both Florida schools to head north. One of FSU/Miami will be SEC.

Clemson-I would welcome them, but I just don't see Clemson in a conference other than the ACC or SEC.

UVA-Seems to be tied tighter with Virginia Tech than UNC/NCST(unless the P2 can work around it by splitting both with permanent OOC's). B1G invite at #20 looks doubtful.

Virginia Tech-I would gladly welcome them, but they don't seem to be an option. Tied to UVA.

NCST-I would welcome them, but would be shocked if they got an invite.

UNC-tied with NCST. Won't join with only FSU. Would need to expand to 22-24 for UNC

Notre Dame-I don't think I need to explain.

Georgia Tech-Maybe it is #20. I would think the B1G would need to expand to 24 for GT, but after going through the MAG-7, I could see GT as #20.
I have to admit as a Terp, I am salivating over the thought of conference games in Atlanta again!

I don't want to go past 20, but the western expansion messed up eastern expansion. Maybe the B1G does actually go to 24 schools.

(12-30-2023 11:13 PM)ENCterrapin Wrote:  #20 is difficult imo.

Miami(fla)-I find it very hard to believe ESPN/SEC allows both Florida schools to head north. One of FSU/Miami will be SEC.

Clemson-I would welcome them, but I just don't see Clemson in a conference other than the ACC or SEC.

UVA-Seems to be tied tighter with Virginia Tech than UNC/NCST(unless the P2 can work around it by splitting both with permanent OOC's). B1G invite at #20 looks doubtful.

Virginia Tech-I would gladly welcome them, but they don't seem to be an option. Tied to UVA.

NCST-I would welcome them, but would be shocked if they got an invite.

UNC-tied with NCST. Won't join with only FSU. Would need to expand to 22-24 for UNC

Notre Dame-I don't think I need to explain.

Georgia Tech-Maybe it is #20. I would think the B1G would need to expand to 24 for GT, but after going through the MAG-7, I could see GT as #20.
I have to admit as a Terp, I am salivating over the thought of conference games in Atlanta again!

I don't want to go past 20, but the western expansion messed up eastern expansion. Maybe the B1G does actually go to 24 schools.

Work the permutations. Either the SEC picks up FSU and a school outside the ACC and the ACC picks up USF and stands pat, or we go to 24. Either ACC survives and lets the squeaky wheel go, or the only other way to handle them is to dismantle them. In that world the SEC likely takes 7 or 8 and the Big 10 takes 4 and 2 more to the West. Why? Because either the ACC survives and sticks together w/o FSU or it all goes boom! If even 4 key schools are taken the value drops too severely. If we go big FOX and ESPN will have to help the SEC and Big 10 compromise. You want Miami we take FSU, you take FSU we take Miami. You take Virginia and Duke, we take UNC and N.C. State. You take Ga Tech we take Clemson. That's 8 Boston College, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Louisville, SMU, and Wake Forest to the Big 12. That's 14. You take Stanford and Cal, we take Kansas and Virginia Tech. That's 17. Notre Dame possibly signs for games with all 3 conferences and calls themselves independent. Places minor sports between the Big 10 and SEC. The Big 12 loses Kansas and picks up South Florida.

Something along those lines works. But if UNC, UVa, Duke, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Miami, all decide that with Stanford and Cal they want to organize around hoops, minor sports and still play football, well viva la difference! They become a distinct #4 power conference even as part of the middle 2 with the Big 12. And you know what, they would be doing us both a favor. You could stay at 18 and the SEC could move to 18 and we end up more profitable with a more manageable scheduling model.

I fail to see how all these 2nd schools in [VT, NCST, Mia, Duke, GaT, Cal]
are more valuable than ASU, Utah, Colo, Kansas
none of the B-10 want to play in primetime latter in the yr because weather
it also opens up 4th window, afterdark
I also read that playoff's don't work unless entire country is invovled

If there is no obvious #20 that wants to join, then just add FSU and stop at 19.

Then go to 10 conference games. Stick with flex protect schedule where everybody can have 0 to 3 annual rivals. Play everybody at least twice in 5 years.

I frankly don’t know the SEC’s interest in

Florida St
Clemson
Miami
Georgia Tech
Louisville

as they have “University ofs” in all those states.

If the Big 10 were interested in Florida St, Miami or Georgia Tech, I could see the SEC trying to block I guess. Otherwise, I think the SEC would rather those schools twist in the wind somewhere outside the P2 to demote them as challengers to their SEC in-state rivals.

I don’t see the Big 10 interested in Clemson or Louisville. Neither has a chance at AAU. Florida State isn’t AAU either, but with USF getting in they have to be close.

Either way, Florida State, Miami and Georgia Tech’s best shot is playing footsie with the Big 10 as getting a Big 10 invite might also lead to an SEC invite.

Clemson and Louisville are in a position of having to beg the SEC or accept existence outside the P2 (i.e. ACC or Big 12).

===========

As to the Virginia and North Carolina schools, I think the SEC would potentially be interested in at least one per state excluding Wake Forest. And the Big 10 would be interested in the “University ofs” + Duke. This is where the real battle between the Big 10 and SEC will take place: for UNC and UVa. Duke is less attractive than either, but perhaps more attractive than NC St and Va Tech.

Wake is the odd man out here. Their future is outside the P2 in either a rebuilt ACC or perhaps Big East. I can’t imagine the Big 12 is interested.

===========

I haven’t mentioned Notre Dame as their new NBC deal guarantees them football independence and the Big East or Big 12 would take their other sports if the ACC falls apart/is not rebuilt. But they could have a Big 10 or SEC invitation with a phone call.

===========

That leaves former Big East schools (Syracuse, Pitt, BC), former Pac 12 schools (Cal, Stanford) and SMU.

I can’t see the SEC having interest in any of them. The Big 10 might have interest in Cal and Stanford (after several years experience traveling to UCLA, USC, Oregon, Wash) to reduce the travel burden of mid-western schools to the West Coast.

Otherwise, a rebuilt ACC or Big 12 is the best option for this bunch. SMU has no option outside a rebuilt ACC. Maybe BC as well. I can see the Big 12 being interested in Pitt, Syracuse, Cal and Stanford.

(12-30-2023 07:13 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-30-2023 07:06 PM)Garrettabc Wrote:  

(12-30-2023 06:55 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(12-30-2023 02:56 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(12-30-2023 05:08 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Debating the merits of Florida State, Miami and Georgia Tech are fair game. But, just because UNC and UVa have a standing offer from the Big 10, as by the way in the past so has Vanderbilt, doesn't mean they will act upon them. UNC has one from the SEC and with a partner. In 2011 that partner was Duke. That may have changed. But that doesn't mean they are going to the SEC either.

I'm astonished that it isn't sinking in that Stanford and Cal fit very well with Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, and Miami, a group which Boston College, Syracuse, and Wake Forest feel at home with as well. And that's not to mention how well their vision of athletics and academics fit with Notre Dame. S.M.U. is a bit novel, but then so too is Louisville.

Florida State on the other hand loves diamond sports and their fans support those religiously. I can understand their frustration with ESPN, but they aren't going to commit consumer base suicide unless the SEC doesn't ever offer them. They also want to keep their association with Clemson. Somehow neither of those fits to well with the Big 10 profile. There is much fan fiction going on with both the SEC and Big 10 fan bases.

Your Minnesota YouTube mouthpiece spoke the truth when he said the cause of this was the court cases and the heavy overhead they were adding to funding the upper tier sports. Travel is a good deal of that overhead, especially for non-revenue sports. That little facet tells me that transcontinental conferences will have a lot more overhead going forward. Clusters of 5 or 6 schools in a region will be needed.

The SEC wants to stay regional for that reason. They stand at 16 and have 4 slots to 20 and 8 slots to 24. Most games at SEC venues are closer for ACC schools, especially the Southern ones than they are Big 10 schools. I'd say Virginia was a wash if the SEC were adding a group of 6 or more from the ACC. Baseball and Softball are epically strong in the SEC. Fans are the customer base and donors are locally oriented as well. Presidents didn't decide the issues at Texas and Oklahoma. Fans and Donors did because no product alienates its customer base. Customers don't like to fly to football games. They prefer to drive. They certainly don't fly to basketball games or baseball games or softball games or non-revenue sports and if their child is playing that gets expensive and old quickly.

Frankly, I don't take FSU to the Big 10 seriously, and for all of those reasons and more.

ESPN can't take sides between the ACC and SEC. But if the ACC is cracked, or about to be they can certainly express a preference to keep their product and make the transition easier on them. Clemson and Florida State fit the SEC. They don't fit the Big 10. Tallahassee isn't easy for Big 10 teams to get to; it is surrounded by SEC and ACC fans with few Big 10 alums in a region where there are few Big 10 alums. Miami is plausible, and other than being private fits the Big 10. I can believe Miami. Georgia Tech is in a massive city in which they carry about 48% of the viewership for college sports. Georgia carries about 50% of it and the rest is divided between Clemson, Tennessee, Auburn, and Alabama. But Since Georgia carries 85% of the rest of the state the SEC's interest in Georgia Tech, a former member who chose to leave, may not be strong. I can see Tech being interested in a Big 10 invite and they would be like adding another Purdue. Virginia could be a tossup especially if UNC opts for an in-state travel partner to the SEC. But that only happens if the ACC is imploding. Otherwise, their inclination will be to stick it out in the ACC.

I've witnessed this all before, and twice. In 2011 and now. Every Big 10 fan is so sold on the Academic superiority of the Big 10 that they are absolutely convinced that any AAU school anywhere else pines to be among them. Yet the ACC's aggregate academic rating is higher than that of the Big 10 and would certainly be amplified by Stanford and California. You landed Rutgers and Maryland for markets. The SEC landed Texas A&M and Missouri. The SEC landed Texas and Oklahoma worth 2.3 billion in their ability to impact commerce in their regions, your landed 890 million dollars' worth of impact with the 2 Los Angeles based schools and added another 900 million with Oregon and Washington. Until those deals were announced the Big 10 pundits where wholly convinced that Texas would choose the PAC 12 or Big 10 over any conference, especially the SEC. But consumer base and business models trumped academics. Why? Texas is strong enough to stand on its own academically as are any AAU schools. And now that the courts are making sports professional in nature the divide between athletics and academics is vastly greater than the amateur mode championed by the NCAA and Big 10.

I believe the ACC will stick together eventually losing Florida State, Clemson, and possibly Miami. I don't think any of the rest of them are going anywhere. I think they'll focus on non-revenue sports and hoops and be happy to play baseball and softball. I think Notre Dame will wangle deals with both the SEC, Big 10 and ACC and that they'll keep hockey in the Big 10.

I believe that the SEC could move to 18 with Clemson and Florida State and that beyond that Kansas might hold some interest. Especially if Vanderbilt opted for the new ACC format.

And I see no reason for the SEC or Big 10 to move to 24 unless networks just want the added inventory carrying those brands.

The Big 10 could move to 20 with Miami and Georgia Tech and pick up two great cities but the money is not there.

My point is don't bank on UVa and UNC, particularly UNC. And there are more standing offers out there than yours.

The Big 10 was going to be a compelling destination for Notre Dame, but it didn't happen. For Texas, and it didn't happen, and UNC will be the same. Now Notre Dame is not in the SEC and UNC may never be either, but that doesn't mean they are headed to the Big 10. And we both know that there's not a damn thing the Big 10 can do to land FSU AAU status. You can tell them what they need to do but unless the metrics spit their name out for consideration and a vote there is no guarantee they make it, certainly not within the next 10 years.

Occam's razor says the simplest moves. Well, if FSU really wants out the simplest move is to the SEC, ESPN or not. Clemson has been a charter member of the ACC. I'm not convinced they would leave if they had the chance. If Vanderbilt stays Kansas could pair up with FSU. If Vanderbilt prefers the vision of the ACC in comes FSU and the SEC remains at 16 with more games in Florida, which is a priority.

Now as much as this board loves its theories, and did in 2011, something along the lines of what I laid out above is what is most likely to happen. If it doesn't it will be because the networks wanted more schools branded Big 10 or SEC.

You sound like a Johnny one-note JR. Beating the same drum over and over.

And I almost agree with you.
I think you are right about Florida State (even if it is a defensive move on ESPN/SEC's part).
It's #18 that I continually have a problem with. First of all, I don't think it would be Clemson for multiple reasons. I also don't think it would be Kansas or any other Big 12 school. For the most part it would have to be an ACC school and I think your choices are Louisville or Miami. That gives the SEC an 18 team conference to match the B1G (within the same footprint, which is extremely important for the SEC).

The ACC picks up Tulane and USF and eventually Notre Dame (they will eventually need to join a conference to participate in the SFP) to also get to an 18 team conference.
ESPN becomes the biggest winner.

Reasons I can think of in favor of Clemson:

Big Brand
TV ratings would be in top 5 of SEC
81500 fans, every game
Deep South but National Draw
They are worth the dilution of shares to add them
Culturally have a ton in common with SEC schools
Good offensive and defensive move for us, much like FSU

Reasons against

We already have a school in South Carolina


I, for one, think that the pros FAR outweigh the cons, and I look forward to welcoming Clemson into the SEC. 2026? 2036? I know it matters a lot to Clemson, but I’m not too bothered about the exact timing of it.

Depending on how the schedules would work out, adding Clemson could be a good thing or throw a wrench in the plans. At 17, you can do a 1-8-8 (1 annual, 8 biannual) or 3 divisions of 6.

It's not an issue the SEC always adds in pairs.

And, in this case, there are 2 that are excellent matches.

(12-30-2023 11:13 PM)ENCterrapin Wrote:  #20 is difficult imo.

Miami(fla)-I find it very hard to believe ESPN/SEC allows both Florida schools to head north. One of FSU/Miami will be SEC.

Clemson-I would welcome them, but I just don't see Clemson in a conference other than the ACC or SEC.

UVA-Seems to be tied tighter with Virginia Tech than UNC/NCST(unless the P2 can work around it by splitting both with permanent OOC's). B1G invite at #20 looks doubtful.

Virginia Tech-I would gladly welcome them, but they don't seem to be an option. Tied to UVA.

NCST-I would welcome them, but would be shocked if they got an invite.

UNC-tied with NCST. Won't join with only FSU. Would need to expand to 22-24 for UNC

Notre Dame-I don't think I need to explain.

Georgia Tech-Maybe it is #20. I would think the B1G would need to expand to 24 for GT, but after going through the MAG-7, I could see GT as #20.
I have to admit as a Terp, I am salivating over the thought of conference games in Atlanta again!

I don't want to go past 20, but the western expansion messed up eastern expansion. Maybe the B1G does actually go to 24 schools.

The "Western Expansion" locked down a huge region of the country and turned it into B1G Country. USCLA, Washington and Oregon are also roughly equal in value to FSU/Clemson/UNC/Miami, and they're much better fits overall Academically and Culturally. Regardless of leaks from random sources, I'm still skeptical that FSU and Clemson will even get a B1G invite at all. Here's what we're looking at down the road, probably closer to 2026 than 2036:

FSU/Clemson: SEC
Miami/UNC: either SEC or B1G

Everyone else from the Big 12 and ACC will be left to fend for themselves. Make a 3rd Conference of misfit toys? Remain with 2 M2 Conferences? I'm not really sure it matters to the rest of us. Maybe it will matter to WSU and OSU I suppose.

(12-31-2023 12:22 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(12-30-2023 11:13 PM)ENCterrapin Wrote:  #20 is difficult imo.

Miami(fla)-I find it very hard to believe ESPN/SEC allows both Florida schools to head north. One of FSU/Miami will be SEC.

Clemson-I would welcome them, but I just don't see Clemson in a conference other than the ACC or SEC.

UVA-Seems to be tied tighter with Virginia Tech than UNC/NCST(unless the P2 can work around it by splitting both with permanent OOC's). B1G invite at #20 looks doubtful.

Virginia Tech-I would gladly welcome them, but they don't seem to be an option. Tied to UVA.

NCST-I would welcome them, but would be shocked if they got an invite.

UNC-tied with NCST. Won't join with only FSU. Would need to expand to 22-24 for UNC

Notre Dame-I don't think I need to explain.

Georgia Tech-Maybe it is #20. I would think the B1G would need to expand to 24 for GT, but after going through the MAG-7, I could see GT as #20.
I have to admit as a Terp, I am salivating over the thought of conference games in Atlanta again!

I don't want to go past 20, but the western expansion messed up eastern expansion. Maybe the B1G does actually go to 24 schools.

The "Western Expansion" locked down a huge region of the country and turned it into B1G Country. USCLA, Washington and Oregon are also roughly equal in value to FSU/Clemson/UNC/Miami, and they're much better fits overall Academically and Culturally. Regardless of leaks from random sources, I'm still skeptical that FSU and Clemson will even get a B1G invite at all. Here's what we're looking at down the road, probably closer to 2026 than 2036:

FSU/Clemson: SEC
Miami/UNC: either SEC or B1G

Everyone else from the Big 12 and ACC will be left to fend for themselves. Make a 3rd Conference of misfit toys? Remain with 2 M2 Conferences? I'm not really sure it matters to the rest of us. Maybe it will matter to WSU and OSU I suppose.

I think it's been pretty clearly established that it's down to which way FSU goes.

Big10 - FSU +1, likely Miami

SEC - FSU +3, likely Clemson, NC, and NC State.

If NC isn't tied to NC State (or if the Big10 gets FSU), one of the Virginia schools gets swapped in.

The Big10 could also pick up VA, Duke, GT, or even USF. But I think they'll stay with 2, unless circumstances change.

(12-31-2023 02:53 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(12-31-2023 12:22 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(12-30-2023 11:13 PM)ENCterrapin Wrote:  #20 is difficult imo.

Miami(fla)-I find it very hard to believe ESPN/SEC allows both Florida schools to head north. One of FSU/Miami will be SEC.

Clemson-I would welcome them, but I just don't see Clemson in a conference other than the ACC or SEC.

UVA-Seems to be tied tighter with Virginia Tech than UNC/NCST(unless the P2 can work around it by splitting both with permanent OOC's). B1G invite at #20 looks doubtful.

Virginia Tech-I would gladly welcome them, but they don't seem to be an option. Tied to UVA.

NCST-I would welcome them, but would be shocked if they got an invite.

UNC-tied with NCST. Won't join with only FSU. Would need to expand to 22-24 for UNC

Notre Dame-I don't think I need to explain.

Georgia Tech-Maybe it is #20. I would think the B1G would need to expand to 24 for GT, but after going through the MAG-7, I could see GT as #20.
I have to admit as a Terp, I am salivating over the thought of conference games in Atlanta again!

I don't want to go past 20, but the western expansion messed up eastern expansion. Maybe the B1G does actually go to 24 schools.

The "Western Expansion" locked down a huge region of the country and turned it into B1G Country. USCLA, Washington and Oregon are also roughly equal in value to FSU/Clemson/UNC/Miami, and they're much better fits overall Academically and Culturally. Regardless of leaks from random sources, I'm still skeptical that FSU and Clemson will even get a B1G invite at all. Here's what we're looking at down the road, probably closer to 2026 than 2036:

FSU/Clemson: SEC
Miami/UNC: either SEC or B1G

Everyone else from the Big 12 and ACC will be left to fend for themselves. Make a 3rd Conference of misfit toys? Remain with 2 M2 Conferences? I'm not really sure it matters to the rest of us. Maybe it will matter to WSU and OSU I suppose.

I think it's been pretty clearly established that it's down to which way FSU goes.

Big10 - FSU +1, likely Miami

SEC - FSU +3, likely Clemson, NC, and NC State.

If NC isn't tied to NC State (or if the Big10 gets FSU), one of the Virginia schools gets swapped in.

The Big10 could also pick up VA, Duke, GT, or even USF. But I think they'll stay with 2, unless circumstances change.

The Big 10 needs another West Coast school, just one. If they move to 20 4 divisions of 5 make a lot of sense for travel. Let's say you added Virginia with them this is what you would have:

California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Washington, (Colorado or Stanford)
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State
Maryland, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, Virginia

And since you would be looking at a raid of Virginia then Stanford makes more sense. The Big 12 isn't disturbed. It's simpler.

Then if you want to grow to 24 at some point you add 1 to the West again and 3 to the East and re-divide those in the middle two groups. Something like this:

California Los Angeles, Colorado, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Rutgers
Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Miami, Penn State, Virginia

Eventually we will see the CFP (if it pays enough) eliminate CCGs and division champions will become automatic qualifiers. This will ensure every region has a participant and the participation will be won on the field. If the Big 12 is expanded and included that's 12 slots. A 16 team playoff could exist with 4 at large and that allows for N.D. to have an entrance as well as some very close divisional races to be accounted for in the final field.

The networks are really going to scrutinize Clemson. What are their TV ratings pre-Dabo? What are their long term prospects post-Dabo when he takes over for Saban?

Clemson is in the oversaturated South; Oregon and Washington make sense because they don’t have any competition. Same with the LA schools.

(12-31-2023 12:22 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(12-30-2023 11:13 PM)ENCterrapin Wrote:  #20 is difficult imo.

Miami(fla)-I find it very hard to believe ESPN/SEC allows both Florida schools to head north. One of FSU/Miami will be SEC.

Clemson-I would welcome them, but I just don't see Clemson in a conference other than the ACC or SEC.

UVA-Seems to be tied tighter with Virginia Tech than UNC/NCST(unless the P2 can work around it by splitting both with permanent OOC's). B1G invite at #20 looks doubtful.

Virginia Tech-I would gladly welcome them, but they don't seem to be an option. Tied to UVA.

NCST-I would welcome them, but would be shocked if they got an invite.

UNC-tied with NCST. Won't join with only FSU. Would need to expand to 22-24 for UNC

Notre Dame-I don't think I need to explain.

Georgia Tech-Maybe it is #20. I would think the B1G would need to expand to 24 for GT, but after going through the MAG-7, I could see GT as #20.
I have to admit as a Terp, I am salivating over the thought of conference games in Atlanta again!

I don't want to go past 20, but the western expansion messed up eastern expansion. Maybe the B1G does actually go to 24 schools.

The "Western Expansion" locked down a huge region of the country and turned it into B1G Country. USCLA, Washington and Oregon are also roughly equal in value to FSU/Clemson/UNC/Miami, and they're much better fits overall Academically and Culturally. Regardless of leaks from random sources, I'm still skeptical that FSU and Clemson will even get a B1G invite at all. Here's what we're looking at down the road, probably closer to 2026 than 2036:

FSU/Clemson: SEC
Miami/UNC: either SEC or B1G

Everyone else from the Big 12 and ACC will be left to fend for themselves. Make a 3rd Conference of misfit toys? Remain with 2 M2 Conferences? I'm not really sure it matters to the rest of us. Maybe it will matter to WSU and OSU I suppose.

A third conference doesn’t add up. When it comes to football, the ACC and Big XII will essentially be the early BCS versions of the C-USA and Mountain West.

Once this contract runs its course, the playoffs will drop the conference champs earn-a-bye feature. I think the top four conference champs will clinch a spot just to appease the masses (and networks), but they won’t secure a bye. I think the fifth conference champ rule is reduced to four, if y’all missed that part.

(12-30-2023 02:36 AM)Big Ron Buckeye Wrote:  My assumptions:

1. Notre Dame wants to and probably will remain independent.
2. UNC and UVA have a standing offer from the B1G regardless of what happens, so I will eliminate them from all analysis.
3. Florida State wouldn't be going though challenging the Grant of Rights if they didn't think the SEC or B1G had an offer for them.
4. Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, and Clemson are more valuable to the B1G than the SEC because the SEC already has a dominant presence in the states of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.
5. The B1G has no further interest in Western Schools at this time.

My starting points:

1. The B1G has already vetted 10 schools: Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Georgia Tech, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Utah and Miami.

https://www.si.com/college/ohiostate/new...ssovlement

2. Florida State and Clemson have been rumored so much that it would be irresponsible to not include then in an updated list.


Let's take it for granted that Florida State is going to get an offer and UNC and UVA have a standing offer. There are 4 schools competing for slot 20. Who should get that slot? The competition is Miami, Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Duke.

The first team that is easily crossed off of the list is Duke. I think Duke comes if and only if they are added with UNC and UVA. Duke is a fine school in everything but football. They are getting better but don't move the needle in the most important college sport. Both the SEC and B1G want UNC and UVA and they could use that leverage to muscle in Duke. But Duke on its own football merit seems bound to stay in a rearranged ACC.

The next school I think is crossed off of the lost is Clemson. Clemson is a GREAT football school but they are stuck between a rock and a hard place. Culturally Clemson feels like an SEC school but I don't think the SEC wants them. Notably missing from the original 10 schools was Clemson so I'm not sure the B1G fancies Clemson even though they are proven winners in the past decade and change.

That leaves us with Miami and Georgia Tech.
1. Both amazing cities with dynamic economies.
2. Both cities contain TONS of B1G alumni.
3. Easy travel from anywhere in the country.

If the B1G wanted to go to 21 these two (along with Florida State) would be my guess as to who would be selected. But that being said.

The next school that gets crossed off would be Miami. Miami has great history from 1979 to 2002 but have been a mediocre program outside of that window. Their administration seems to not support the U at a level that it would take to be consistently excellent. And since the Orange Bowl has been ripped down, a lot of the mystique has dissipated surrounding the U. I call it the Curse of the Orange Bowl but they have to do something to get an on campus stadium. Yes the U is a private school and all but 2 of the B1G are large publics but I don't think that would matter if the administration started giving more effs and they built an on-campus stadium.

Last man standing is Georgia Tech. Let's not forget that back when the B1G added Maryland and Rutgers, they were also after UNC, UVA, and Georgia Tech. https://m.startribune.com/christensen-a-...192067661/

GT has a fantastic location, great academics, excellent talent to recruit locally. The B1G/BTN could get into both Florida and Georgia with the additions of FSU and GT. The game has changed recently and tv views are more important than market size, but the BTN gets an elevated rate for the markets they are directly in, so that revenue stream could still play a factor in the decision.

So how many schools does the B1G want to go to? I personally think that if the SEC offers UNC and UVA they are going there with or without Duke. If the academics sway the decision maybe the B1G has a chance but... well we'll see.

The order of addition imo would be:
19. Florida State
20. Georgia Tech
21. Miami
To me these decisions are clear. If they go to 24, the next natural stopping spot then obviously there are two scenarios and as you can plainly see MUST include UNC and UVA.

Scenario #1. UNC and UVA convince the B1G into taking Duke.
Scenario #2 the B1G, UNC, UVA, FSU, GT, and Miami agree that Clemson, with its superior football program, is a better fit for the southern wing of the new B1G.

It's been a while since I've last post, I apologize, but tell me what you all think?

Report: SEC, Big Ten Don't Have 'Much Desire' to Add FSU, Clemson, Other ACC Schools

According to CBS Sports' Dennis Dodd, the Big Ten and SEC are not looking to add top schools from the ACC anytime soon.

"Industry sources repeat that there is not much desire by either conference to add the likes of Clemson, Florida State, etc. Not that the ACC's seemingly 'ironclad' grant of rights agreement would allow such movement," Dodd stated.

By the 2024 season, the Big Ten and SEC will have a combined 34 teams, many of whom are among the most popular in the NCAA. Most recently, Washington and Oregon jumped from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten, following the footsteps of UCLA and USC.

Link
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1008...cc-schools

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...cial-hits/

Brett McMurphy: FSU Does Nothing For the SEC

However Once GOR is figured out ESPN vs FOX may happen and SECvs BIG10 or Big12 (Fox & ESPN) may get FSU.....worth a listen

Link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jdv1xSMt4xE

(12-31-2023 04:39 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(12-31-2023 12:22 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(12-30-2023 11:13 PM)ENCterrapin Wrote:  #20 is difficult imo.

Miami(fla)-I find it very hard to believe ESPN/SEC allows both Florida schools to head north. One of FSU/Miami will be SEC.

Clemson-I would welcome them, but I just don't see Clemson in a conference other than the ACC or SEC.

UVA-Seems to be tied tighter with Virginia Tech than UNC/NCST(unless the P2 can work around it by splitting both with permanent OOC's). B1G invite at #20 looks doubtful.

Virginia Tech-I would gladly welcome them, but they don't seem to be an option. Tied to UVA.

NCST-I would welcome them, but would be shocked if they got an invite.

UNC-tied with NCST. Won't join with only FSU. Would need to expand to 22-24 for UNC

Notre Dame-I don't think I need to explain.

Georgia Tech-Maybe it is #20. I would think the B1G would need to expand to 24 for GT, but after going through the MAG-7, I could see GT as #20.
I have to admit as a Terp, I am salivating over the thought of conference games in Atlanta again!

I don't want to go past 20, but the western expansion messed up eastern expansion. Maybe the B1G does actually go to 24 schools.

The "Western Expansion" locked down a huge region of the country and turned it into B1G Country. USCLA, Washington and Oregon are also roughly equal in value to FSU/Clemson/UNC/Miami, and they're much better fits overall Academically and Culturally. Regardless of leaks from random sources, I'm still skeptical that FSU and Clemson will even get a B1G invite at all. Here's what we're looking at down the road, probably closer to 2026 than 2036:

FSU/Clemson: SEC
Miami/UNC: either SEC or B1G

Everyone else from the Big 12 and ACC will be left to fend for themselves. Make a 3rd Conference of misfit toys? Remain with 2 M2 Conferences? I'm not really sure it matters to the rest of us. Maybe it will matter to WSU and OSU I suppose.

A third conference doesn’t add up. When it comes to football, the ACC and Big XII will essentially be the early BCS versions of the C-USA and Mountain West.

Once this contract runs its course, the playoffs will drop the conference champs earn-a-bye feature. I think the top four conference champs will clinch a spot just to appease the masses (and networks), but they won’t secure a bye. I think the fifth conference champ rule is reduced to four, if y’all missed that part.

FSU Miami VaTech GaTech ND Stanford would be the best all-around fits for the B1G if they can’t land UNC or UVa but still decide 24 is the correct number.

(12-30-2023 02:36 AM)Big Ron Buckeye Wrote:  My assumptions:

1. Notre Dame wants to and probably will remain independent.
2. UNC and UVA have a standing offer from the B1G regardless of what happens, so I will eliminate them from all analysis.
3. Florida State wouldn't be going though challenging the Grant of Rights if they didn't think the SEC or B1G had an offer for them.
4. Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, and Clemson are more valuable to the B1G than the SEC because the SEC already has a dominant presence in the states of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.
5. The B1G has no further interest in Western Schools at this time.

My starting points:

1. The B1G has already vetted 10 schools: Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Georgia Tech, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Utah and Miami.

https://www.si.com/college/ohiostate/new...ssovlement

2. Florida State and Clemson have been rumored so much that it would be irresponsible to not include then in an updated list.


Let's take it for granted that Florida State is going to get an offer and UNC and UVA have a standing offer. There are 4 schools competing for slot 20. Who should get that slot? The competition is Miami, Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Duke.

The first team that is easily crossed off of the list is Duke. I think Duke comes if and only if they are added with UNC and UVA. Duke is a fine school in everything but football. They are getting better but don't move the needle in the most important college sport. Both the SEC and B1G want UNC and UVA and they could use that leverage to muscle in Duke. But Duke on its own football merit seems bound to stay in a rearranged ACC.

The next school I think is crossed off of the lost is Clemson. Clemson is a GREAT football school but they are stuck between a rock and a hard place. Culturally Clemson feels like an SEC school but I don't think the SEC wants them. Notably missing from the original 10 schools was Clemson so I'm not sure the B1G fancies Clemson even though they are proven winners in the past decade and change.

That leaves us with Miami and Georgia Tech.
1. Both amazing cities with dynamic economies.
2. Both cities contain TONS of B1G alumni.
3. Easy travel from anywhere in the country.

If the B1G wanted to go to 21 these two (along with Florida State) would be my guess as to who would be selected. But that being said.

The next school that gets crossed off would be Miami. Miami has great history from 1979 to 2002 but have been a mediocre program outside of that window. Their administration seems to not support the U at a level that it would take to be consistently excellent. And since the Orange Bowl has been ripped down, a lot of the mystique has dissipated surrounding the U. I call it the Curse of the Orange Bowl but they have to do something to get an on campus stadium. Yes the U is a private school and all but 2 of the B1G are large publics but I don't think that would matter if the administration started giving more effs and they built an on-campus stadium.

Last man standing is Georgia Tech. Let's not forget that back when the B1G added Maryland and Rutgers, they were also after UNC, UVA, and Georgia Tech. https://m.startribune.com/christensen-a-...192067661/

GT has a fantastic location, great academics, excellent talent to recruit locally. The B1G/BTN could get into both Florida and Georgia with the additions of FSU and GT. The game has changed recently and tv views are more important than market size, but the BTN gets an elevated rate for the markets they are directly in, so that revenue stream could still play a factor in the decision.

So how many schools does the B1G want to go to? I personally think that if the SEC offers UNC and UVA they are going there with or without Duke. If the academics sway the decision maybe the B1G has a chance but... well we'll see.

The order of addition imo would be:
19. Florida State
20. Georgia Tech
21. Miami
To me these decisions are clear. If they go to 24, the next natural stopping spot then obviously there are two scenarios and as you can plainly see MUST include UNC and UVA.

Scenario #1. UNC and UVA convince the B1G into taking Duke.
Scenario #2 the B1G, UNC, UVA, FSU, GT, and Miami agree that Clemson, with its superior football program, is a better fit for the southern wing of the new B1G.

It's been a while since I've last post, I apologize, but tell me what you all think?

Interesting take. I do know that in 2010 Georgia Tech & Big10 had talks:

Three people in the Georgia Tech athletic department at the time, who were granted anonymity to speak freely about the discussions, confirmed there were talks with the Big Ten. They never reached the final stages, with different views on why talks didn’t get serious. “It was stopped early,” one former Georgia Tech staffer said. “There was an early enough indicator to say, ‘We’re not interested,’ that it didn’t really go further than that.”

There just wasn’t enough alignment within the school to do something as bold as switching conferences, especially to what was more a hypothetical than a real offer. The feeling was it would be an uphill argument among the fans and biggest donors, who tend to be more traditional and risk-averse.

Peterson, who retired in 2019, was a member of the NCAA Board of Governors, and when there were overtures, the school was reluctant to contribute to the chaos of college athletics. There also was respect for then-ACC commissioner John Swofford.

“It was an era where relationships probably still mattered,” one former Georgia Tech staffer said. “In an era when there was still stability among the people who had been in those roles for a long time. It’s probably flipped now, where there’s instability among the people in those roles, where one person could say, ‘We’re going to be in this conference until we die,’ when the next person might say, ‘I don’t give a (crap) about that.’”

Georgia Tech now has a new president in Angel Cabrera, a new AD in J Batt and new people all over the athletic department. And the landscape of college sports has changed. The desire now is less for markets than brands, and Georgia Tech’s brand has been hurt by not winning enough lately. Brent Key took over last fall, looking to get the football program back to a competitive level [after Goof Collins the Master of bull**** (supposedly Mayhem)], and Damon Stoudamire was hired this spring to do the same for the men’s basketball program.

Would be interesting if the Big10 came calling a second time.

Link
https://theathletic.com/4648505/2023/07/...alignment/

(12-31-2023 04:43 PM)GTFletch Wrote:  

(12-30-2023 02:36 AM)Big Ron Buckeye Wrote:  My assumptions:

1. Notre Dame wants to and probably will remain independent.
2. UNC and UVA have a standing offer from the B1G regardless of what happens, so I will eliminate them from all analysis.
3. Florida State wouldn't be going though challenging the Grant of Rights if they didn't think the SEC or B1G had an offer for them.
4. Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, and Clemson are more valuable to the B1G than the SEC because the SEC already has a dominant presence in the states of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.
5. The B1G has no further interest in Western Schools at this time.

My starting points:

1. The B1G has already vetted 10 schools: Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Georgia Tech, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Utah and Miami.

https://www.si.com/college/ohiostate/new...ssovlement

2. Florida State and Clemson have been rumored so much that it would be irresponsible to not include then in an updated list.


Let's take it for granted that Florida State is going to get an offer and UNC and UVA have a standing offer. There are 4 schools competing for slot 20. Who should get that slot? The competition is Miami, Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Duke.

The first team that is easily crossed off of the list is Duke. I think Duke comes if and only if they are added with UNC and UVA. Duke is a fine school in everything but football. They are getting better but don't move the needle in the most important college sport. Both the SEC and B1G want UNC and UVA and they could use that leverage to muscle in Duke. But Duke on its own football merit seems bound to stay in a rearranged ACC.

The next school I think is crossed off of the lost is Clemson. Clemson is a GREAT football school but they are stuck between a rock and a hard place. Culturally Clemson feels like an SEC school but I don't think the SEC wants them. Notably missing from the original 10 schools was Clemson so I'm not sure the B1G fancies Clemson even though they are proven winners in the past decade and change.

That leaves us with Miami and Georgia Tech.
1. Both amazing cities with dynamic economies.
2. Both cities contain TONS of B1G alumni.
3. Easy travel from anywhere in the country.

If the B1G wanted to go to 21 these two (along with Florida State) would be my guess as to who would be selected. But that being said.

The next school that gets crossed off would be Miami. Miami has great history from 1979 to 2002 but have been a mediocre program outside of that window. Their administration seems to not support the U at a level that it would take to be consistently excellent. And since the Orange Bowl has been ripped down, a lot of the mystique has dissipated surrounding the U. I call it the Curse of the Orange Bowl but they have to do something to get an on campus stadium. Yes the U is a private school and all but 2 of the B1G are large publics but I don't think that would matter if the administration started giving more effs and they built an on-campus stadium.

Last man standing is Georgia Tech. Let's not forget that back when the B1G added Maryland and Rutgers, they were also after UNC, UVA, and Georgia Tech. https://m.startribune.com/christensen-a-...192067661/

GT has a fantastic location, great academics, excellent talent to recruit locally. The B1G/BTN could get into both Florida and Georgia with the additions of FSU and GT. The game has changed recently and tv views are more important than market size, but the BTN gets an elevated rate for the markets they are directly in, so that revenue stream could still play a factor in the decision.

So how many schools does the B1G want to go to? I personally think that if the SEC offers UNC and UVA they are going there with or without Duke. If the academics sway the decision maybe the B1G has a chance but... well we'll see.

The order of addition imo would be:
19. Florida State
20. Georgia Tech
21. Miami
To me these decisions are clear. If they go to 24, the next natural stopping spot then obviously there are two scenarios and as you can plainly see MUST include UNC and UVA.

Scenario #1. UNC and UVA convince the B1G into taking Duke.
Scenario #2 the B1G, UNC, UVA, FSU, GT, and Miami agree that Clemson, with its superior football program, is a better fit for the southern wing of the new B1G.

It's been a while since I've last post, I apologize, but tell me what you all think?

Report: SEC, Big Ten Don't Have 'Much Desire' to Add FSU, Clemson, Other ACC Schools

According to CBS Sports' Dennis Dodd, the Big Ten and SEC are not looking to add top schools from the ACC anytime soon.

"Industry sources repeat that there is not much desire by either conference to add the likes of Clemson, Florida State, etc. Not that the ACC's seemingly 'ironclad' grant of rights agreement would allow such movement," Dodd stated.

By the 2024 season, the Big Ten and SEC will have a combined 34 teams, many of whom are among the most popular in the NCAA. Most recently, Washington and Oregon jumped from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten, following the footsteps of UCLA and USC.

Link
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1008...cc-schools

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...cial-hits/

Brett McMurphy: FSU Does Nothing For the SEC

However Once GOR is figured out ESPN vs FOX may happen and SECvs BIG10 or Big12 (Fox & ESPN) may get FSU.....worth a listen

Link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jdv1xSMt4xE

These are not credible sources. The fact remains the SEC's #1 internal scheduling issue is that all of its members presently, and those coming in, want games in Florida. UF can't fulfill the demand so another Florida school is heavily indicated. Miami or Florida State is the only question and USF remains an outside possibility if the for any reason the other two are not amenable or available.

If this article had been honest and serious they would tell you that FOX has a need to be in the Southeast (the strongest college football market in the nation) and that ESPN has desire to hold onto it for the same reason. The article would have said that ESPN does not have a desire for the SEC to expand with FSU and Clemson. Why? They no doubt would like the see the SEC reach into another time zone to the West which the SEC decidedly doesn't want to do. And along the same lines the Big 10 doesn't have interest in Clemson and FSU for academic reasons, but FOX wants them to have interest.

This is already a FOX vs ESPN issue and the Big 10 and SEC are its proxies.

I think we are past the time that Petitti and Sankey and the presidents behind both put their damn collective foot down and tell the networks enough! You can stay within the parameters we set for ourselves because we aren't expanding with schools or schools in regions that are beyond the identity we wish to have. But so far the 800lb gorilla in the room is pay for play and the damages arising from the NCAA's denial of NIL. That makes the need for a cash grab to navigate the future massive for both conferences. But if they cave to that fear then a Clemson and Florida State to the Big 10 is just as possible as a Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Kansas to the SEC to go along with North Carolina, Virginia, Duke, and N.C. State. For the networks its simply about time zones and market reach. For the Big 10 it is about holding onto their guiding light of academic associations and for the SEC it is about holding onto their regional identity. FOX and ESPN want 2 Super conferences which span the nation in some form and give each conference games in all time zones and a way to create divisions which reach all regions. If they can get that then the Conference playoffs in both Conferences reach the entire nation and culminate in a new Super Bowl for Colleges. That means all potential markets stay engaged from the beginning of the playoff through the end of it and FOX and ESPN split a commercial bonanza.

Once that is done it will be time to start their work on a new basketball tournament.

If the SEC and Big 10 don't work together, they each become something they don't really wish to be. In short if Petitti and Sankey don't work together to shape the future to their satisfactions, FOX and ESPN will shape it for them!

(12-31-2023 04:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-31-2023 02:53 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(12-31-2023 12:22 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(12-30-2023 11:13 PM)ENCterrapin Wrote:  #20 is difficult imo.

Miami(fla)-I find it very hard to believe ESPN/SEC allows both Florida schools to head north. One of FSU/Miami will be SEC.

Clemson-I would welcome them, but I just don't see Clemson in a conference other than the ACC or SEC.

UVA-Seems to be tied tighter with Virginia Tech than UNC/NCST(unless the P2 can work around it by splitting both with permanent OOC's). B1G invite at #20 looks doubtful.

Virginia Tech-I would gladly welcome them, but they don't seem to be an option. Tied to UVA.

NCST-I would welcome them, but would be shocked if they got an invite.

UNC-tied with NCST. Won't join with only FSU. Would need to expand to 22-24 for UNC

Notre Dame-I don't think I need to explain.

Georgia Tech-Maybe it is #20. I would think the B1G would need to expand to 24 for GT, but after going through the MAG-7, I could see GT as #20.
I have to admit as a Terp, I am salivating over the thought of conference games in Atlanta again!

I don't want to go past 20, but the western expansion messed up eastern expansion. Maybe the B1G does actually go to 24 schools.

The "Western Expansion" locked down a huge region of the country and turned it into B1G Country. USCLA, Washington and Oregon are also roughly equal in value to FSU/Clemson/UNC/Miami, and they're much better fits overall Academically and Culturally. Regardless of leaks from random sources, I'm still skeptical that FSU and Clemson will even get a B1G invite at all. Here's what we're looking at down the road, probably closer to 2026 than 2036:

FSU/Clemson: SEC
Miami/UNC: either SEC or B1G

Everyone else from the Big 12 and ACC will be left to fend for themselves. Make a 3rd Conference of misfit toys? Remain with 2 M2 Conferences? I'm not really sure it matters to the rest of us. Maybe it will matter to WSU and OSU I suppose.

I think it's been pretty clearly established that it's down to which way FSU goes.

Big10 - FSU +1, likely Miami

SEC - FSU +3, likely Clemson, NC, and NC State.

If NC isn't tied to NC State (or if the Big10 gets FSU), one of the Virginia schools gets swapped in.

The Big10 could also pick up VA, Duke, GT, or even USF. But I think they'll stay with 2, unless circumstances change.

The Big 10 needs another West Coast school, just one. If they move to 20 4 divisions of 5 make a lot of sense for travel. Let's say you added Virginia with them this is what you would have:

California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Washington, (Colorado or Stanford)
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State
Maryland, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, Virginia

And since you would be looking at a raid of Virginia then Stanford makes more sense. The Big 12 isn't disturbed. It's simpler.

Then if you want to grow to 24 at some point you add 1 to the West again and 3 to the East and re-divide those in the middle two groups. Something like this:

California Los Angeles, Colorado, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Rutgers
Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Miami, Penn State, Virginia

Eventually we will see the CFP (if it pays enough) eliminate CCGs and division champions will become automatic qualifiers. This will ensure every region has a participant and the participation will be won on the field. If the Big 12 is expanded and included that's 12 slots. A 16 team playoff could exist with 4 at large and that allows for N.D. to have an entrance as well as some very close divisional races to be accounted for in the final field.

Interesting idea.

My first main quibble is that, I really really doubt that the Big10 adds both Cal and Stanford. There are some that think that, at this point, the Big10 - having turned them down - will always turn them down. I don't think that's true, but I also don't think both get invites. However, AZ or AZ State could get the invite instead to fill out your chart.

Second, I think the Big10 wants 2 Florida schools, for the same reasons you note about the SEC above, and also due to travel. If FSU does join the SEC, I think USF might well be a possibility. (And that's without talking about the various recent rumors concerning U of Florida.)

The more I look at it, if they go past 22, they might as well go to 28:

Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Oregon, Southern Cal, Utah (or Stanford), Washington
Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Rutgers
Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Miami, Penn State, South Florida (or FSU), Virginia

Add Stanford and work out a deal with ND and it's the Big10 times 3 lol

(12-31-2023 06:26 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(12-31-2023 04:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-31-2023 02:53 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(12-31-2023 12:22 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(12-30-2023 11:13 PM)ENCterrapin Wrote:  #20 is difficult imo.

Miami(fla)-I find it very hard to believe ESPN/SEC allows both Florida schools to head north. One of FSU/Miami will be SEC.

Clemson-I would welcome them, but I just don't see Clemson in a conference other than the ACC or SEC.

UVA-Seems to be tied tighter with Virginia Tech than UNC/NCST(unless the P2 can work around it by splitting both with permanent OOC's). B1G invite at #20 looks doubtful.

Virginia Tech-I would gladly welcome them, but they don't seem to be an option. Tied to UVA.

NCST-I would welcome them, but would be shocked if they got an invite.

UNC-tied with NCST. Won't join with only FSU. Would need to expand to 22-24 for UNC

Notre Dame-I don't think I need to explain.

Georgia Tech-Maybe it is #20. I would think the B1G would need to expand to 24 for GT, but after going through the MAG-7, I could see GT as #20.
I have to admit as a Terp, I am salivating over the thought of conference games in Atlanta again!

I don't want to go past 20, but the western expansion messed up eastern expansion. Maybe the B1G does actually go to 24 schools.

The "Western Expansion" locked down a huge region of the country and turned it into B1G Country. USCLA, Washington and Oregon are also roughly equal in value to FSU/Clemson/UNC/Miami, and they're much better fits overall Academically and Culturally. Regardless of leaks from random sources, I'm still skeptical that FSU and Clemson will even get a B1G invite at all. Here's what we're looking at down the road, probably closer to 2026 than 2036:

FSU/Clemson: SEC
Miami/UNC: either SEC or B1G

Everyone else from the Big 12 and ACC will be left to fend for themselves. Make a 3rd Conference of misfit toys? Remain with 2 M2 Conferences? I'm not really sure it matters to the rest of us. Maybe it will matter to WSU and OSU I suppose.

I think it's been pretty clearly established that it's down to which way FSU goes.

Big10 - FSU +1, likely Miami

SEC - FSU +3, likely Clemson, NC, and NC State.

If NC isn't tied to NC State (or if the Big10 gets FSU), one of the Virginia schools gets swapped in.

The Big10 could also pick up VA, Duke, GT, or even USF. But I think they'll stay with 2, unless circumstances change.

The Big 10 needs another West Coast school, just one. If they move to 20 4 divisions of 5 make a lot of sense for travel. Let's say you added Virginia with them this is what you would have:

California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Washington, (Colorado or Stanford)
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State
Maryland, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, Virginia

And since you would be looking at a raid of Virginia then Stanford makes more sense. The Big 12 isn't disturbed. It's simpler.

Then if you want to grow to 24 at some point you add 1 to the West again and 3 to the East and re-divide those in the middle two groups. Something like this:

California Los Angeles, Colorado, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Rutgers
Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Miami, Penn State, Virginia

Eventually we will see the CFP (if it pays enough) eliminate CCGs and division champions will become automatic qualifiers. This will ensure every region has a participant and the participation will be won on the field. If the Big 12 is expanded and included that's 12 slots. A 16 team playoff could exist with 4 at large and that allows for N.D. to have an entrance as well as some very close divisional races to be accounted for in the final field.

Interesting idea.

My first main quibble is that, I really really doubt that the Big10 adds both Cal and Stanford. There are some that think that, at this point, the Big10 - having turned them down - will always turn them down. I don't think that's true, but I also don't think both get invites. However, AZ or AZ State could get the invite instead to fill out your chart.

Second, I think the Big10 wants 2 Florida schools, for the same reasons you note about the SEC above, and also due to travel. If FSU does join the SEC, I think USF might well be a possibility. (And that's without talking about the various recent rumors concerning U of Florida.)

The more I look at it, if they go past 22, they might as well go to 28:

Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Oregon, Southern Cal, Utah (or Stanford), Washington
Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Rutgers
Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Miami, Penn State, South Florida (or FSU), Virginia

Add Stanford and work out a deal with ND and it's the Big10 times 3 lol

If it's just a P2 I think two 28 member conferences is a compromise. But it may alter the distribution of some.

Big 10:

Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Arizona, Arizona State, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern California, Utah, Washington

Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Rutgers

Boston College, Maryland, Miami, Notre Dame, Penn State, Syracuse, Virginia

SEC:
Iowa State, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, T.C.U.

Arkansas, Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State

Florida, Georgia, Louisville, South Carolina, South Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, Kentucky, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia Tech

It would certainly stretch the Big 10 and the SEC's intended composition requirements, but it is workable.

So when you look at those it makes the case for a 2 x 20 with the Big 12 being fully included as 24 member conference:

Big 10:

California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin

Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State

Maryland, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Rutgers

SEC:
Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State

Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Florida State, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia

Big 12:
Clemson, Georgia Tech, Central Florida, Miami, N.C. State, Virginia Tech

Baylor, Houston, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

Arizona, Arizona State, Brigham Young, Colorado, Oregon State, Utah

Boston College, Cincinnati, Iowa State, Louisville, Syracuse, West Virginia