Chicago State is about half way thru its schedule right now, with 16 games in the books. It’s NET is right at 300. It jumped some spots after the Northwestern win, but not as much as I would have expected. But even with more wins, one on the road, it has barely budged since and sits at 300.

But, that’s ahead of 65 other programs. That’s almost 20% of all D1 teams. Chicago is held back by the quality of teams it’s played overall. But that’s OK because, while they have played a lot of bottom feeder schools, they have won nearly all of those games. And wins are a lot more important than NET. I suppose the NET is useful for some committee determining who gets the last at large bid to the tournament, but doesn’t mean much on a day to day basis for lots of programs. But the end of the season NET is the only one that counts for anything (the quads wins for example) Where a school is when you play them counts for nothing.

That said, Chicagos SOS will improve greatly in the next couple of weeks with Wisconsin, Kansas State and Oklahoma State all coming up on the schedule. And as conference play gets into swings, a lot of teams just above Chicago State may see theirs drop the further into their conferences they get as things even out.

Thanks. That is good info.

(12-22-2023 06:32 PM)MICHAELSPAPPY Wrote:  Thanks. That is good info.

My pleasure. I love stats.

But it does go to show how much of a factor geography can play in Chicago State being left out. If they were in the Mid Atlantic region or the Deep South, they’d have conferences who would have taken them years ago.

Last year (not sure it was the final NET), but at one point Chicago State was rated ahead of the entire NEC, including the conference champion and NCAA tourney representative.

Also, just an FYI, Chicago has a good chance to pass a lot of schools in lower conferences in the second half of the season. Many of them have already played all of the good teams they are going to play, whereas Chicago State still has 3 P5 teams including tonight’s game. Other schools strength of schedule will start dropping as soon as they play in conference games.

Chicago States NET could rise even if they lose to Wisconsin, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State.

I’m curious how the NET will treat Chicago States loss. It was on the road, and to a very highly rated team. But it was a bad loss. On 12-22 (before the game) Chicago was 296.

I noticed some interesting moves from other teams. Fairleigh Dickinson was just above Chicago State before they dropped 26 spots after a 30 point loss at home to ~245 Fairfield. Fairfield, after the win, jumped 35 spots.

Another example, more relevant to CSU is Northern Colorado, who the Cougars have played, and lost to by one. NoCo went on the road and beat Air Force and jumped 36 spots.

And it feels like most of the teams that have defeated the Cougars are still winning, and all, or nearly all are at a higher NET than when we played.

Most recent rankings for Chicago State

NET- 293
RPI- 273
KenPom- 309

If Chicago State can win the upcoming games they should, I think we could see their ranking rise about 15-20 spots over the remainder of the season. As stated above, some schools that play tough preseason schedules will see their strength of schedule drop the more conference games they play. Schools will start to lose some tough conference road games to really low rated teams, and there will be teams that have mounting injuries and will hit the skids as the season progresses.

All of that points to some good potential for CSU to finish the season a little higher than they are currently. With an upset or two, CSU could creep up closer to NET 260, which is sort of a magic number in my mind because there are 363 D1 teams. It’s kind of a bummer to look from the bottom up, but finishing above 100 other programs would still be a nice accomplishment.

CSU games by Quadrant-

Quad 1- 0-1 #13
Quad 2- 1-3 Win versus 80, Losses versus 77, 85, 123
Quad 3- 0-5 #131, 135, 138, 192, 200
Quad 4- 6-6 Wins versus 196, 310, 313, 315, 332, 354
Losses versus 207, 222, 235, 243, 286, 306

For Quad 1, road games are 1-75, so Northwestern at 80 could end up as a Quad 1 win, and Kansas State (77) and Southern Illinois (85) could possibly end up as Quad 1 losses. There are other opponents on the cusp of different quadrants, depending on the final NET rankings. But Quad 1 games are the rare ones, and carry the most weight.

Chicago State versus-
Top 100 1-3
100-199 0-5
200-299 1-6
300+ 5-1

The Cougars have had 8 games versus teams in the top half of the NET, 14 in the lower half.

Chicago State NET stands at 292 today. That puts them ahead of over 70 teams. It’s a modest number, but probably their highest in the NET era. RPI has been higher before. Somewhere there a site than can tell you all of these facts about historical NET but I forgot what it was.

What I do know is, for what used to be one of worst teams in the country, this is an accomplishment to be proud of.

70 is 70, but put another way, that would equal 7 full 10 team conferences, while there are 32 or so conferences in D1. It is still in the bottom 20% of all teams, but there are A LOT of teams. And finally, this season, there are a lot of teams behind the Cougars. They are only a couple spots below being out of the bottom 20%, and not far from being out of the bottom quarter.

Also, RPI is 265
KenPom is 298

One other note, on the RPI ranking site, they list all of the conferences by average RPI. Since Chicago is an Indy, it holds a spot just like a conference would.

Behind Chicago State is

The Southland
Ohio Valley Conference
The MEAC
Northeast Conference
Patriot League

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basket...ng-by-conf

NET crept up a few more spots to 289. Again, I believe this is the highest since the NET began. Chicagos States strongest seasons were mostly in the RPI era.

RPI today is 263 (out of 363)
KenPom is 300

Should get another boost after the Stetson win!

(01-15-2024 10:54 PM)joshadam84 Wrote:  Should get another boost after the Stetson win!

Not a huge boost, as is typical in the NET. But up 6 spots

Chicago State now stands at-

NET 283
KenPom 289
RPI 243

Next years NEC teams by current NET

Central Connecticut 219
Chicago State 286
LeMoyne 294
Wagner 295
Fairleigh Dickinson 323
St Francis 348
Long Island 354
Stonehill 358

As anyone can see, the Cougars will have a chance to be successful in this league. Getting their first NCAA tournament appearance soon is very realistic. If anyone had told me a few months ago that Chicago State be in a good position to have a shot at the tournament as soon as next year, I wouldn’t have believed it. Of course, nothing is a given. It will be very interesting seeing which teams have the best returners next season. If Wesley Cardet Jr returns, I’d have a hard time not seeing Chicago State picked in the top 2 in the NEC preseason poll.

I didn’t examine Central Connecticut’s roster too closely to see who leads them in scoring etc, and with Covid years in play, it’s very difficult to know anyone’s actual eligibility level. They do have 4 players listed ad Seniors and 1 Grad Student.

As of today, Chicago States NET is 280. I am certain this is a program high in the NET rating era.

Also, RPI is 250. Not sure if this is a program high, but it’s most likely the highest in a decade or longer.

And KenPom is 287.

Chicago State NET ranks higher than at least 3 teams in 13 different conferences.

And higher than at least 2 teams in 18 of the 32 conferences.

The Cougars NET is 2nd among the 7 teams that will be Northeast Conference members next season, trailing only Central a Connecticut, who is #232 now.

After a number of losses toward the end of the season, the Cougars fell back down a few spots from their season highs. Hopefully they get a couple more wins and boost them back up a little to end the season.

Currently-

RPI- 255
NET- 296
KenPom- 295

UC San Diego, the Big West runner up, who the Cougars dispatched of yesterday was ranked 120 in the NET, for reference and comparison.

Potential next round opponents, Fairfield is NET 161 and Little Rock, 181.

KenPom rankings at seasons end for next years NEC members

Central Connecticut 262
Wagner 292
Chicago State 295
LeMoyne 302
Fairleigh Dickinson 327
Long Island 343
St Francis 354
Stonehill 359