JRsec
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RE: "Florida State discussing future in ACC after CFP snub" (ESPN Article)
(12-20-2023 06:07 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote: (12-20-2023 04:24 PM)JRsec Wrote: (12-20-2023 03:23 PM)esayem Wrote: (12-20-2023 02:43 PM)JRsec Wrote: (12-20-2023 02:31 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote: NOBODY is worth so much that they could just happily skip away from the ACC right now without repercussions. It’s no insult to FSU that they couldn’t do, alone, what OUT couldn’t do together. They need allies to join them and buy in from all stakeholders: the ACC office, nearly all or all ACC Presidents, ESPN, Sankey, and the SEC Presudents. The Dallas Cowboys couldn’t sort out this mess, at least not in 5 months. Let’s give FSU a year or 2 of behind the scenes coalition-building and see what they can come up with, and let’s see if they pick up some allies (perhaps from unexpected directions).
Example: Louisville and NC State realize that their Athletic future is in jeopardy, as do Northwestern, TCU, CU, Vanderbilt, and Purdue. They all decide that it’s in their best interest to move from 4 to 3 conferences sooner rather than later. ESPN and Fox see an opportunity to add a few years to their current P4 contracts, maybe to get them all ending around 2036, so they also buy in. The soon to be left behind (again) schools from the ACC and Big 12 decide that safety in numbers and a 28 team ACCN with nationwide reach will help them better-prepare for the future and remain competitive with the P2. The P2 grab 4-6 schools from the ACC and Big 12, plus ND (non FB), leading to something like this:
SEC 16 + FSU, Clemson, UNC, VT
B1G 18 + Miami, ASU, and ND (non FB)
Big ACC 28, ACCN fully unleashed and keeps paying out for a very long time
ESPN wins by keeping most of the ACC in house, strengthening the ACCN, and extending the Big 12 schools 5 more years. Every single ACC school wins. Every single Big 12 school gets an immediate raise and even greater certainty of long term relevance. The SEC wins by getting 4 of our top 5 targets, while the B1G gets Miami and 5/9 of ND. Fox would need to get paid into the full Big ACC contract, but that’s just a detail that could be worked out with every other stakeholder satisfied.
That’s a mammoth undertaking though, right? It will take up years to sort out all the details, even if everyone ends up on the same page.
"Like rumors and blog conspiracies, so are the survivor claims of the ACC!" Be sure to tune in next week for ESPN's longest contracted Soap Opera. Will the Mag 7 blow, where would Louisville go, would Wake be out of the show, would the former Big East schools even know? Stay tuned! Same time, same East Coast Channel! Each week more Whine and Sleaze from the Wine and Cheese, classy lasses, bogus classes, pride galore, until behind the doors, but always entertaining!
Wow, you sound defeated
Hardly. Just waiting on the Big One and it's coming.
I wonder what it’s worth to ESPN to milk this drama for all it’s worth? At some level, the talking heads just want constant chaos and drama bc that boosts ratings. Maybe Magnus “accidentally” leaves the door open so Scott Van Pelt can hear him talking to FSU and/or the SEC office…
Maybe. But what I think they are waiting on now is the hard numbers from the completion of the law cases. How much in damages will each institution have to pay. Will the NCAA survive the damages which will be in the billions. They have endowments but only about 2 billion dollars worth of them. They could be facing sums a lot larger than that. Is there an opt in or opt out breakaway? If so, who opts out. Several opt outs in a single conference could open windows in the GORs or require contracts be renegotiated and/or rewritten which means windows in which schools could leave. Why kick cuss and discuss to work out a solution if one may be coming as the natural consequence of the court rulings? It's a lot cheaper to wait to find out all of these factors than it is to jump to a resolution which may not be needed. What if Boston College and Wake Forest were a hard no on pay for play? What if Cal, Stanford, Virginia, Duke and UNC, possibly with Pitt and Syracuse simply opted to concentrate on basketball and opt to play football, if they play football, at a less costly tier? It's cheap and easy to say, "Oh all of the P5's will stay" when you don't know the cost. Sure that will be the sentiment now. But if a few hundred million per school is expected in damages, and you have a large overhead increase to institute pay for play, I promise you there will be some private universities and some smaller state universities which are going to have to make some hard calls.
When we know for sure how many opt to stay in at the highest tier, then we will know how the new conferences need to be shaped, and who it is that fits the respective requirements of the Big 10 and SEC which remain available. There is not going to be one mindset on big time college sports which is inclusive of football costs. Look at the revenue totals now and those making more than 90 million gross revenue. That will likely be the new Mendoza line for participation, and note, it could be higher depending upon those damages which will deplete existing funds.
(This post was last modified: 12-20-2023 06:31 PM by JRsec.)
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