App is at 47 and that is with 2 Q3 losses and a 1-0 record vs. Q1 (Auburn).

The rest of the East is absolute garbage and we can't afford a loss to anyone. In the West losses to ULL or Texas State could be palatable based on current NET.

(12-20-2023 09:49 AM)jmu98 Wrote:  Moved up two spots in the NET to 24.

As I mentioned yesterday playing Q3 and Q4 games are not really an issue as long as you win. However, losses to those teams particularly when you don't have a lot of Q1 opportunities are disastrous.

Without knowing all inputs of the efficiency rating if we can go through the year and lose a few games that are Q2 and get a win or 2 against App (if they can stay where they are) I think we can keep our rating in the 20's to low 30's. We could probably survive one Q3 loss, but any more than that and it is win the conference tourney or bust.

What is the approximate NET ranking where at-large bids typically cutoff? I know the committee can do as they please, but suspect at least the top 40-50 NET typically get in?

(12-20-2023 09:55 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(12-20-2023 09:49 AM)jmu98 Wrote:  Moved up two spots in the NET to 24.

As I mentioned yesterday playing Q3 and Q4 games are not really an issue as long as you win. However, losses to those teams particularly when you don't have a lot of Q1 opportunities are disastrous.

Without knowing all inputs of the efficiency rating if we can go through the year and lose a few games that are Q2 and get a win or 2 against App (if they can stay where they are) I think we can keep our rating in the 20's to low 30's. We could probably survive one Q3 loss, but any more than that and it is win the conference tourney or bust.

What is the approximate NET ranking where at-large bids typically cutoff? I know the committee can do as they please, but suspect at least the top 40-50 NET typically get in?

When I have a chance will do some research, but generally I think sub 40 and you are looking good. There will be outliers where teams have a lot of Q1 wins but some bad losses and they get in based on demonstrated ability to win games against tourney teams.

While I expect more challenging games in SB play, basketball this year since Cancun has felt a bit like JMU Football in CAA play. You don't measure results based on wins and loses, but more so how much we win by. ASU and the MAC game should add some challenges.