From the ESPN GameDay podcast:

"I would think the SEC would be happy to sit at 16 for a while because they really like their footprint," Thamel said. "There's enough intimacy. They have a region right now. The only thing that disrupts that is if they have to play defense because they don't want the Big Ten to come into their region.

"Is that Florida State? Is that North Carolina, which is coveted. Virginia, which is coveted. I think the ranking — and people at Florida State and Clemson don't like to hear this — but it's North Carolina, Virginia, Clemson and Florida State. Or maybe Florida State (No. 3) instead of Clemson because they bring more eyeballs and TV sets. Those schools are in the crosshairs."

1. Thamel is likely in in the know on the SEC/ESPN expansion game plan better than any reporter in the business. If anybody's talking to Greg Sankey and Burke Magnus about the realignment roadmap — and carrying their water if need be — it's Thamel.

2. North Carolina and Virginia atop the "most coveted" rankings? Seems to me there's both some truth and a significant amount of gaslighting going on with that declaration. UNC and UVA are really valuable — not only as historical flagships and "Public Ivies" but also for their significant presence and reach in the last two large Southern States where the SEC is yet to plant its flag. UNC and UVA have long been near the top of the B1G's wish list for the aforementioned reasons and more. Sankey and ESPN (via Thamel) want to make it abundantly clear (while no doubt playing to the considerable hubris of both institutions) by publicly emphasizing that North Carolina and Virginia are top priorities.

Of course, so are are FSU and Clemson — and nobody in their right mind believes the SEC wouldn't invite all four the second the light turns from red to green. It's like if Texas, Georgia, Ohio State and Michigan were free agents tomorrow. Sure you could rank 'em Nos. 1 through 4, but what difference would it make?

They'd all be on the invite list from jump street

(12-08-2023 02:20 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  From the ESPN GameDay podcast:

"I would think the SEC would be happy to sit at 16 for a while because they really like their footprint," Thamel said. "There's enough intimacy. They have a region right now. The only thing that disrupts that is if they have to play defense because they don't want the Big Ten to come into their region.

"Is that Florida State? Is that North Carolina, which is coveted. Virginia, which is coveted. I think the ranking — and people at Florida State and Clemson don't like to hear this — but it's North Carolina, Virginia, Clemson and Florida State. Or maybe Florida State (No. 3) instead of Clemson because they bring more eyeballs and TV sets. Those schools are in the crosshairs."

1. Thamel is likely in in the know on the SEC/ESPN expansion game plan better than any reporter in the business. If anybody's talking to Greg Sankey and Burke Magnus about the realignment roadmap — and carrying their water if need be — it's Thamel.

2. North Carolina and Virginia atop the "most coveted" rankings? Seems to me there's both some truth and a significant amount of gaslighting going on with that declaration. UNC and UVA are really valuable — not only as historical flagships and "Public Ivies" but also for their significant presence and reach in the last two large Southern States where the SEC is yet to plant its flag. UNC and UVA have long been near the top of the B1G's wish list for the aforementioned reasons and more. Sankey and ESPN (via Thamel) want to make it abundantly clear (while no doubt playing to the considerable hubris of both institutions) by publicly emphasizing that North Carolina and Virginia are top priorities.

Of course, so are are FSU and Clemson — and nobody in their right mind believes the SEC wouldn't invite all four the second the light turns from red to green. It's like if Texas, Georgia, Ohio State and Michigan were free agents tomorrow. Sure you could rank 'em Nos. 1 through 4, but what difference would it make?

They'd all be on the invite list from jump street

I think the jury is out on Clemson. They had one national title in 1981 before this Dabo run, and it remains to be seen if this is just a down spell or the end of being a top echelon program. I'd swap them with South Carolina in a heartbeat but that's not how it works.

I agree with your take. The only thing is UVa has a VT problem. Virginia politicians won't let them separate, so it's both or none. The answer then is none, as we saw repeatedly with Oklahoma (equally valuable as any on the list here) trying to bring Oklahoma State along, with Pac-12, B1G and SEC all passing. And oSu has significantly better numbers than VT or NC State, the two mentioned as tag alongs.

The vote on taking Stanford, Cal and SMU revealed two things: NC State is not as tightly bound to UNC and knows their options are more limited, so didn't want to burn bridges, and UVa knows that VT effectively keeps them bound in the ACC, so also voted to allow them in (VT especially wanted them for institutional development reasons).

This tells me UNC, FSU and Clemson are moveable. But who is the 4th? Seems their plan was to hope for ND not to reach a deal with NBC, and join the B1G (denying Stanford entry was part of the idea to make the ACC less attractive for their Independence to continue), perhaps breaking the GOR extension with ND (added '26-35). Whatever the machinations and implications (all very murky), its clear these are the three. Virginia may be coveted, but a replacement may be required (Miami?).

BTW, I think this is also a shot by the SEC at FSU for their carrying on about their being passed over in the CFP in favor of Texas and Alabama. It was a "shut up, you are not as needed by us as you seem to think" statement. Did FSU get the message?

Waiting for JRsec to weigh in.

(12-08-2023 02:38 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  I agree with your take. The only thing is UVa has a VT problem. Virginia politicians won't let them separate, so it's both or none. The answer then is none, as we saw repeatedly with Oklahoma (equally valuable as any on the list here) trying to bring Oklahoma State along, with Pac-12, B1G and SEC all passing. And oSu has significantly better numbers than VT or NC State, the two mentioned as tag alongs.

The vote on taking Stanford, Cal and SMU revealed two things: NC State is not as tightly bound to UNC and knows their options are more limited, so didn't want to burn bridges, and UVa knows that VT effectively keeps them bound in the ACC, so also voted to allow them in (VT especially wanted them for institutional development reasons).

This tells me UNC, FSU and Clemson are moveable. But who is the 4th? Seems their plan was to hope for ND not to reach a deal with NBC, and join the B1G (denying Stanford entry was part of the idea to make the ACC less attractive for their Independence to continue), perhaps breaking the GOR extension with ND (added '26-35). Whatever the machinations and implications (all very murky), its clear these are the three. Virginia may be coveted, but a replacement may be required (Miami?).

BTW, I think this is also a shot by the SEC at FSU for their carrying on about their being passed over in the CFP in favor of Texas and Alabama. It was a "shut up, you are not as needed by us as you seem to think" statement. Did FSU get the message?

I agree with your second point about the SEC taking a shot at FSU. That being said, I think UVA/VT can both have spots: UNC/Duke/FSU/Miami/Clemson/UVA/VT/Kansas.

Or even:
UNC/Notre Dame/FSU/Miami/Clemson/UVA/VT/Kansas.

And of course the bottom line question is will any media partners do a pro-rata boost to the P2's contracts?

And if not, are they really that valuable?

(12-08-2023 02:38 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  I agree with your take. The only thing is UVa has a VT problem. Virginia politicians won't let them separate, so it's both or none. The answer then is none, as we saw repeatedly with Oklahoma (equally valuable as any on the list here) trying to bring Oklahoma State along, with Pac-12, B1G and SEC all passing. And oSu has significantly better numbers than VT or NC State, the two mentioned as tag alongs.

The vote on taking Stanford, Cal and SMU revealed two things: NC State is not as tightly bound to UNC and knows their options are more limited, so didn't want to burn bridges, and UVa knows that VT effectively keeps them bound in the ACC, so also voted to allow them in (VT especially wanted them for institutional development reasons).

This tells me UNC, FSU and Clemson are moveable. But who is the 4th? Seems their plan was to hope for ND not to reach a deal with NBC, and join the B1G (denying Stanford entry was part of the idea to make the ACC less attractive for their Independence to continue), perhaps breaking the GOR extension with ND (added '26-35). Whatever the machinations and implications (all very murky), its clear these are the three. Virginia may be coveted, but a replacement may be required (Miami?).

BTW, I think this is also a shot by the SEC at FSU for their carrying on about their being passed over in the CFP in favor of Texas and Alabama. It was a "shut up, you are not as needed by us as you seem to think" statement. Did FSU get the message?

I actually think it's the B1G that has a "Virginia Tech" problem, but, significantly, the SEC does not

Flugauer has repeatedly hammered home the notion you and others have suggested that UVA isn't going anywhere without its so-called little brother for political reasons. I'd expect Sankey would be fine with taking both Virginia schools, but I doubt the same can be said for Tony Petitti and the B1G.

It's inevitable — if the like-minded political maneuvering isn't already in place — that the same "both or neither" positioning would arise in North Carolina wrt UNC and NC State.

The SEC's next six schools seem likely to come in pairs even if the sequence isn't set in stone:

UNC-NC State
UVA-VA Tech
FSU-Clemson

That takes the SEC membership from 16 to 22.

I'd say three schools for the last two spots (or three if Missouri goes to the B1G with Kansas): Duke, Georgia Tech and West Virginia.

As far as the "OU-Okie State problem" vis-à-vis North Carolina and Virginia, the latter two are Nos. 9 and 12 in population among the 50 states with almost 20M people combined. Okahoma is 28th with a little over 4M. It's also fair to to say the gap between OU and OSU's in-state fan following is much wider than those between UNC and NC State and UVA and Va Tech

(12-08-2023 02:20 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  From the ESPN GameDay podcast:

"I would think the SEC would be happy to sit at 16 for a while because they really like their footprint," Thamel said. "There's enough intimacy. They have a region right now. The only thing that disrupts that is if they have to play defense because they don't want the Big Ten to come into their region.

"Is that Florida State? Is that North Carolina, which is coveted. Virginia, which is coveted. I think the ranking — and people at Florida State and Clemson don't like to hear this — but it's North Carolina, Virginia, Clemson and Florida State. Or maybe Florida State (No. 3) instead of Clemson because they bring more eyeballs and TV sets. Those schools are in the crosshairs."

1. Thamel is likely in in the know on the SEC/ESPN expansion game plan better than any reporter in the business. If anybody's talking to Greg Sankey and Burke Magnus about the realignment roadmap — and carrying their water if need be — it's Thamel.

2. North Carolina and Virginia atop the "most coveted" rankings? Seems to me there's both some truth and a significant amount of gaslighting going on with that declaration. UNC and UVA are really valuable — not only as historical flagships and "Public Ivies" but also for their significant presence and reach in the last two large Southern States where the SEC is yet to plant its flag. UNC and UVA have long been near the top of the B1G's wish list for the aforementioned reasons and more. Sankey and ESPN (via Thamel) want to make it abundantly clear (while no doubt playing to the considerable hubris of both institutions) by publicly emphasizing that North Carolina and Virginia are top priorities.

Of course, so are are FSU and Clemson — and nobody in their right mind believes the SEC wouldn't invite all four the second the light turns from red to green. It's like if Texas, Georgia, Ohio State and Michigan were free agents tomorrow. Sure you could rank 'em Nos. 1 through 4, but what difference would it make?

They'd all be on the invite list from jump street

Thamel's pretty reliable, but somebody not in the evaluation process is giving him information. UVA's TV ratings are abysmal. Value is driven by TV ratings. They are not ahead of FSU and Clemson on any network list, who will be the ones to pay. FSU is clearly first (excluding Notre Dame of course). Virginia can't "show me the money!"

(12-08-2023 03:38 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-08-2023 02:20 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  From the ESPN GameDay podcast:

"I would think the SEC would be happy to sit at 16 for a while because they really like their footprint," Thamel said. "There's enough intimacy. They have a region right now. The only thing that disrupts that is if they have to play defense because they don't want the Big Ten to come into their region.

"Is that Florida State? Is that North Carolina, which is coveted. Virginia, which is coveted. I think the ranking — and people at Florida State and Clemson don't like to hear this — but it's North Carolina, Virginia, Clemson and Florida State. Or maybe Florida State (No. 3) instead of Clemson because they bring more eyeballs and TV sets. Those schools are in the crosshairs."

1. Thamel is likely in in the know on the SEC/ESPN expansion game plan better than any reporter in the business. If anybody's talking to Greg Sankey and Burke Magnus about the realignment roadmap — and carrying their water if need be — it's Thamel.

2. North Carolina and Virginia atop the "most coveted" rankings? Seems to me there's both some truth and a significant amount of gaslighting going on with that declaration. UNC and UVA are really valuable — not only as historical flagships and "Public Ivies" but also for their significant presence and reach in the last two large Southern States where the SEC is yet to plant its flag. UNC and UVA have long been near the top of the B1G's wish list for the aforementioned reasons and more. Sankey and ESPN (via Thamel) want to make it abundantly clear (while no doubt playing to the considerable hubris of both institutions) by publicly emphasizing that North Carolina and Virginia are top priorities.

Of course, so are are FSU and Clemson — and nobody in their right mind believes the SEC wouldn't invite all four the second the light turns from red to green. It's like if Texas, Georgia, Ohio State and Michigan were free agents tomorrow. Sure you could rank 'em Nos. 1 through 4, but what difference would it make?

They'd all be on the invite list from jump street

Thamel's pretty reliable, but somebody not in the evaluation process is giving him information. UVA's TV ratings are abysmal. Value is driven by TV ratings. They are not ahead of FSU and Clemson on any network list, who will be the ones to pay. FSU is clearly first (excluding Notre Dame of course). Virginia can't "show me the money!"

Pete Thamel didn't say it was Ryan Mcgee

I get that the SEC wants to be in Virginia and North Carolina but there is zero way that UVA and UNC add as much tv value as FSU and Clemson. Zero.

Its about football. Its always been about football.

(12-08-2023 03:50 PM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  I get that the SEC wants to be in Virginia and North Carolina but there is zero way that UVA and UNC add as much tv value as FSU and Clemson. Zero.

Its about football. Its always been about football.

They are more concerned with which markets they can increase penetration than current viewership of the program. They are already saturated in the markets Clemson and FSU bring.

However, UNC gives you more penetration in a state with big media markets and, I guess, UVA would do that as well. I am skeptical about UVA though.

You omitted the key part.

"Is that Florida State? Is that North Carolina, which is coveted. Virginia, which is coveted. I think the ranking — and people at Florida State and Clemson don't like to hear this — but it's North Carolina, Virginia, Clemson and Florida State. Or maybe Florida State (No. 3) instead of Clemson because they bring more eyeballs and TV sets. Those schools are in the crosshairs, as of right now there is nowhere to go.

https://keepingitheel.com/2023/12/08/nor...candidate/

I hope the omission was not intentional.

Virginia Tech picked a helluva time to go in the tank.

UNC, Virginia and FSU being the top 3 makes sense, all three are state flagship schools.

Feel like UNC and Virginia would also make great travel partners

Maybe the top three end up moving, and I’d think a private would go as well. Duke most likely, or Miami.

ACC sans FSU Clemson UNC Duke/Miami backfills with Tulane and USF only to get back to 15. There wouldn’t be a paycut for the incumbent schools until ‘36. Would schools bolt to the Big 12 is the question?

(12-08-2023 02:38 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  I agree with your take. The only thing is UVa has a VT problem. Virginia politicians won't let them separate, so it's both or none. The answer then is none, as we saw repeatedly with Oklahoma (equally valuable as any on the list here) trying to bring Oklahoma State along, with Pac-12, B1G and SEC all passing. And oSu has significantly better numbers than VT or NC State, the two mentioned as tag alongs.

The vote on taking Stanford, Cal and SMU revealed two things: NC State is not as tightly bound to UNC and knows their options are more limited, so didn't want to burn bridges, and UVa knows that VT effectively keeps them bound in the ACC, so also voted to allow them in (VT especially wanted them for institutional development reasons).

This tells me UNC, FSU and Clemson are moveable. But who is the 4th? Seems their plan was to hope for ND not to reach a deal with NBC, and join the B1G (denying Stanford entry was part of the idea to make the ACC less attractive for their Independence to continue), perhaps breaking the GOR extension with ND (added '26-35). Whatever the machinations and implications (all very murky), its clear these are the three. Virginia may be coveted, but a replacement may be required (Miami?).

BTW, I think this is also a shot by the SEC at FSU for their carrying on about their being passed over in the CFP in favor of Texas and Alabama. It was a "shut up, you are not as needed by us as you seem to think" statement. Did FSU get the message?

LIKE ^^^

(12-08-2023 02:20 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  From the ESPN GameDay podcast:

"I would think the SEC would be happy to sit at 16 for a while because they really like their footprint," Thamel said. "There's enough intimacy. They have a region right now. The only thing that disrupts that is if they have to play defense because they don't want the Big Ten to come into their region.

"Is that Florida State? Is that North Carolina, which is coveted. Virginia, which is coveted. I think the ranking — and people at Florida State and Clemson don't like to hear this — but it's North Carolina, Virginia, Clemson and Florida State. Or maybe Florida State (No. 3) instead of Clemson because they bring more eyeballs and TV sets. Those schools are in the crosshairs."

1. Thamel is likely in in the know on the SEC/ESPN expansion game plan better than any reporter in the business. If anybody's talking to Greg Sankey and Burke Magnus about the realignment roadmap — and carrying their water if need be — it's Thamel.

2. North Carolina and Virginia atop the "most coveted" rankings? Seems to me there's both some truth and a significant amount of gaslighting going on with that declaration. UNC and UVA are really valuable — not only as historical flagships and "Public Ivies" but also for their significant presence and reach in the last two large Southern States where the SEC is yet to plant its flag. UNC and UVA have long been near the top of the B1G's wish list for the aforementioned reasons and more. Sankey and ESPN (via Thamel) want to make it abundantly clear (while no doubt playing to the considerable hubris of both institutions) by publicly emphasizing that North Carolina and Virginia are top priorities.

Of course, so are are FSU and Clemson — and nobody in their right mind believes the SEC wouldn't invite all four the second the light turns from red to green. It's like if Texas, Georgia, Ohio State and Michigan were free agents tomorrow. Sure you could rank 'em Nos. 1 through 4, but what difference would it make?

They'd all be on the invite list from jump street

I'd rather have Miami or VT over UVA tbh.

(12-08-2023 03:49 PM)Glenn360 Wrote:  

(12-08-2023 03:38 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-08-2023 02:20 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  From the ESPN GameDay podcast:

"I would think the SEC would be happy to sit at 16 for a while because they really like their footprint," Thamel said. "There's enough intimacy. They have a region right now. The only thing that disrupts that is if they have to play defense because they don't want the Big Ten to come into their region.

"Is that Florida State? Is that North Carolina, which is coveted. Virginia, which is coveted. I think the ranking — and people at Florida State and Clemson don't like to hear this — but it's North Carolina, Virginia, Clemson and Florida State. Or maybe Florida State (No. 3) instead of Clemson because they bring more eyeballs and TV sets. Those schools are in the crosshairs."

1. Thamel is likely in in the know on the SEC/ESPN expansion game plan better than any reporter in the business. If anybody's talking to Greg Sankey and Burke Magnus about the realignment roadmap — and carrying their water if need be — it's Thamel.

2. North Carolina and Virginia atop the "most coveted" rankings? Seems to me there's both some truth and a significant amount of gaslighting going on with that declaration. UNC and UVA are really valuable — not only as historical flagships and "Public Ivies" but also for their significant presence and reach in the last two large Southern States where the SEC is yet to plant its flag. UNC and UVA have long been near the top of the B1G's wish list for the aforementioned reasons and more. Sankey and ESPN (via Thamel) want to make it abundantly clear (while no doubt playing to the considerable hubris of both institutions) by publicly emphasizing that North Carolina and Virginia are top priorities.

Of course, so are are FSU and Clemson — and nobody in their right mind believes the SEC wouldn't invite all four the second the light turns from red to green. It's like if Texas, Georgia, Ohio State and Michigan were free agents tomorrow. Sure you could rank 'em Nos. 1 through 4, but what difference would it make?

They'd all be on the invite list from jump street

Thamel's pretty reliable, but somebody not in the evaluation process is giving him information. UVA's TV ratings are abysmal. Value is driven by TV ratings. They are not ahead of FSU and Clemson on any network list, who will be the ones to pay. FSU is clearly first (excluding Notre Dame of course). Virginia can't "show me the money!"

Pete Thamel didn't say it was Ryan Mcgee

I listened. I believe that was Pete's voice.

Now something Ryan said-he was saying Roy Kramer (former SEC commissioner) had told him in 2010 and again in 2022, that if you have more than 16 teams you can't keep it together. Its a consortium, not a league.

Its something I've said many times. No league, even at 16, has held together long.
WAC, Big East, Lone Star, Great West, the Southern in 1933, the Southern in 1953. Even just below 16-the MVC in 1928 and the MVC in the 1970s. The bigger you get, the more disparate you get, so it gets harder to work together.

(12-08-2023 03:10 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(12-08-2023 02:38 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  I agree with your take. The only thing is UVa has a VT problem. Virginia politicians won't let them separate, so it's both or none. The answer then is none, as we saw repeatedly with Oklahoma (equally valuable as any on the list here) trying to bring Oklahoma State along, with Pac-12, B1G and SEC all passing. And oSu has significantly better numbers than VT or NC State, the two mentioned as tag alongs.

The vote on taking Stanford, Cal and SMU revealed two things: NC State is not as tightly bound to UNC and knows their options are more limited, so didn't want to burn bridges, and UVa knows that VT effectively keeps them bound in the ACC, so also voted to allow them in (VT especially wanted them for institutional development reasons).

This tells me UNC, FSU and Clemson are moveable. But who is the 4th? Seems their plan was to hope for ND not to reach a deal with NBC, and join the B1G (denying Stanford entry was part of the idea to make the ACC less attractive for their Independence to continue), perhaps breaking the GOR extension with ND (added '26-35). Whatever the machinations and implications (all very murky), its clear these are the three. Virginia may be coveted, but a replacement may be required (Miami?).

BTW, I think this is also a shot by the SEC at FSU for their carrying on about their being passed over in the CFP in favor of Texas and Alabama. It was a "shut up, you are not as needed by us as you seem to think" statement. Did FSU get the message?

I actually think it's the B1G that has a "Virginia Tech" problem and not the SEC.

Flugauer has repeatedly hammered home the notion you and others have suggested that UVA isn't going anywhere without its so-called little brother for political reasons. I'd expect Sankey would be fine with taking both Virginia schools, but I doubt the same can be said for Tony Petitti and the B1G.

It's inevitable — if the like-minded political maneuvering isn't already in place — that the same "both or neither" positioning would arise in North Carolina wrt UNC and NC State.

The SEC's next six schools seem likely to come in pairs even if the sequence isn't set in stone:

UNC-NC State
UVA-VA Tech
FSU-Clemson

That takes the SEC membership from 16 to 22.

I'd say three schools for the last two spots (or three if Missouri goes to the B1G with Kansas): Duke, Georgia Tech and West Virginia.

As far as the "OU-Okie State problem" vis-à-vis North Carolina and Virginia, the latter two are Nos. 9 and 12 in population among the 50 states with almost 20M people combined. Okahoma is 28th with a little over 4M. It's also fair to to say the gap between OU and OSU's in-state fan following is much wider than those between UNC and NC State and UVA and Va Tech

Honestly, they may just stay at 22 if that happened. You can give every team up to 3 protected rivals (assuming they'll do flex) and play everyone at least once every 3 years.

Those have always been the four schools I think the SEC should be interested in, when they are available.