These are the current Massey Composite conference averages for the G5 conferences. Of course, the bowls may change this:

SBC .............. 78.17
MW ............... 80.58
AAC .............. 92.14
CUSA ............ 92.66
MAC .............. 98.03

So we see that as of now, the G5 has a kind of three-part structure. The SBC and MW are close for #1 and #2. Then there is a significant gap back to the AAC and CUSA, very close at #3 and #4, and then finally another gap, albeit smaller, back to the last place MAC.

The big thing here IMO is the gap between the #2 MW and the #3 AAC. That gap is larger than the gap between the #1 and #5 P5 conferences.

The gap between the best and worst G5 is currently 20 points. Last season, in the final post-bowl MC, the gap was 30 points. The difference being the decline of the AAC. Last year, while the last-place MAC's rating was basically the same, 98, the AAC's first place rating was 68.95, 10 points better than the current first place SBC. So the AAC has lost a whopping 24 points, it is far worse than last year.

We'll see how the bowls change this.

To add something to this, here's Massey's current conference rank among G5s:

1. Sun Belt (6.93)
2. Mountain West (6.92)
3. American (6.83)
4. Conference USA (6.65)
5. Mid-American (6.56)

It's going to be very close between #1 and #2. Bowl season will probably decide it.

Source: https://masseyratings.com/cf/fbs/ratings?c=1

But yet Tulane will play in the NY6 bowl so it all works out in the end.

(11-27-2023 10:17 AM)Thewavefan Wrote:  But yet Tulane will play in the NY6 bowl so it all works out in the end.

Roll Wave!

American Domination Continues

(11-27-2023 10:17 AM)Thewavefan Wrote:  But yet Tulane will play in the NY6 bowl so it all works out in the end.

IMO, when a team from a conference plays in the NY6 bowl, it works out for two entities - the school itself, and the commissioner.

The school, in this case Tulane, obviously benefits. The commissioner of the conference does too, as he can crow that "our conference got the NY6 bid", which is a feather in his cap.

For all the other schools in the conference, IMO it is a negative thing, because the school that gets the bid gets a leg up in the only competition that IMO matters, the race to get promoted to a P or M conference. Tulane getting the NY6 bid back to back is IMO a tremendous boost, makes it a front-runner for an M2 bid, as getting the NY6 bid did for UCF, Cincy and even Houston. To me, there are no "conference mates" in the G5, only competitors for the M2 spots that may open.

IMO, fans of other AAC schools were mistaken to root for UCF and Cincy to get the NY6 bid, and any who are doing so now for Tulane or SMU are IMO similarly misguided.

Bad news for my USF and everyone else, as this IMO far outweighs the trivial extra money and prestige that the "conference" gets.

(11-27-2023 10:19 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

(11-27-2023 10:17 AM)Thewavefan Wrote:  But yet Tulane will play in the NY6 bowl so it all works out in the end.

Roll Wave!

American Domination Continues

Well, the CFP ranks the G5 conferences, and distributes merit money on that basis. I believe $15m is set aside for that, much more than the $6m set aside for the NY6 bid.

IIRC they use the BCS computers to determine that. We'll see who is ranked #1. I very much doubt it will be the AAC.

(11-27-2023 10:32 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-27-2023 10:17 AM)Thewavefan Wrote:  But yet Tulane will play in the NY6 bowl so it all works out in the end.

IMO, when a team from a conference plays in the NY6 bowl, it works out for two entities - the school itself, and the commissioner.

The school, in this case Tulane, obviously benefits. The commissioner of the conference does too, as he can crow that "our conference got the NY6 bid", which is a feather in his cap.

For all the other schools in the conference, IMO it is a negative thing, because the school that gets the bid gets a leg up in the only competition that IMO matters, the race to get promoted to a P or M conference. Tulane getting the NY6 bid back to back is IMO a tremendous boost, makes it a front-runner for an M2 bid, as getting the bid did for UCF, Cincy and even Houston. Bad news for my USF and everyone else.

Tulane does share their Bowl Payout with the other AAC Bowl Eligible teams. So its not all bad for the other teams in the conference.

Memphis, Boise State, and Western Michigan received NY6 bids and didn't get elevated, so its more than just NY6 bids.

(11-27-2023 10:17 AM)Thewavefan Wrote:  But yet Tulane will play in the NY6 bowl so it all works out in the end.

I'm fine with that. Sun Belt has 12 bowl teams this year, which is a better indicator of overall conference strength than the one team at the top.

Clemson won the National Championship for the 2018 season, but it would be ridiculous to assume the ACC was the best FBS conference that year. Only two ACC teams finished in the AP Top 25, less than the Mountain West, who had three teams in there.

Massey had the ACC as the 5th best conference that year. Colley Matrix listed the ACC in 4th place (ahead of the Pac-12).

(11-27-2023 10:40 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

(11-27-2023 10:32 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-27-2023 10:17 AM)Thewavefan Wrote:  But yet Tulane will play in the NY6 bowl so it all works out in the end.

IMO, when a team from a conference plays in the NY6 bowl, it works out for two entities - the school itself, and the commissioner.

The school, in this case Tulane, obviously benefits. The commissioner of the conference does too, as he can crow that "our conference got the NY6 bid", which is a feather in his cap.

For all the other schools in the conference, IMO it is a negative thing, because the school that gets the bid gets a leg up in the only competition that IMO matters, the race to get promoted to a P or M conference. Tulane getting the NY6 bid back to back is IMO a tremendous boost, makes it a front-runner for an M2 bid, as getting the bid did for UCF, Cincy and even Houston. Bad news for my USF and everyone else.

Tulane does share their Bowl Payout with the other AAC Bowl Eligible teams. So its not all bad for the other teams in the conference.

Memphis, Boise State, and Western Michigan received NY6 bids and didn't get elevated, so its more than just NY6 bids.

Yes, the NY6 bowl payout is shared with the other AAC bowl eligible teams. But IMO this is a trivial benefit compared to the IMO major harm done by the team that gets the NY6 bid getting a leg up in the promotion battle for the Power conferences.

And yes, getting the bid is no guarantee of being selected for promotion. But, especially in the AAC, which is regarded as the top "feeder" conference, it IMO clearly provided a major leg up. At the time of Big 12 promotion, three of the four AAC teams that received an NY6 bid were promoted, only Memphis was left out. And both schools that got multiple NY6 bids, UCF and Cincy, got promoted.

Overall, of the G5 schools that have gotten the NY6 bid, three of six got promoted, including schools that got 5 of the 8 bids. In contrast, among the 60 or so G5 that have never gotten the NY6 bid, none have ever been promoted, save for SMU, and SMU got in after the others, and by buying their way in and the way in for Cal and Stanford, a unique situation unlikely to be repeated, IMO.

So to me, the correlation is strong. Very strong.

That's why even though I like Tulane far more than SMU, I want SMU to win this week, as they are already gone and so cannot damage USF.

(11-27-2023 10:47 AM)Yosef181 Wrote:  

(11-27-2023 10:17 AM)Thewavefan Wrote:  But yet Tulane will play in the NY6 bowl so it all works out in the end.

I'm fine with that. Sun Belt has 12 bowl teams this year, which is a better indicator of overall conference strength than the one team at the top.

Clemson won the National Championship for the 2018 season, but it would be ridiculous to assume the ACC was the best FBS conference that year. Only two ACC teams finished in the AP Top 25, less than the Mountain West, who had three teams in there.

Massey had the ACC as the 5th best conference that year. Colley Matrix listed the ACC in 4th place (ahead of the Pac-12).

Financially, AAC would bring in $4M for attending a NY6 Bowl. Meanwhile, R+L Carrier brings in like 825k for Sunbelt team.

It a massive win for the AAC to dominate the NY6 slot.

(11-27-2023 10:55 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

(11-27-2023 10:47 AM)Yosef181 Wrote:  

(11-27-2023 10:17 AM)Thewavefan Wrote:  But yet Tulane will play in the NY6 bowl so it all works out in the end.

I'm fine with that. Sun Belt has 12 bowl teams this year, which is a better indicator of overall conference strength than the one team at the top.

Clemson won the National Championship for the 2018 season, but it would be ridiculous to assume the ACC was the best FBS conference that year. Only two ACC teams finished in the AP Top 25, less than the Mountain West, who had three teams in there.

Massey had the ACC as the 5th best conference that year. Colley Matrix listed the ACC in 4th place (ahead of the Pac-12).

Financially, Tulane would bring in $4M for attending a NY6 Bowl. R+L Carrier brings in like 825k for Sunbelt team.

It a massive win for the AAC to dominate the NY6 slot.

The top G5 conference gets a huge payday too. Having a very low mid/bottom robs a conference of that payday

(11-27-2023 10:58 AM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  

(11-27-2023 10:55 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

(11-27-2023 10:47 AM)Yosef181 Wrote:  

(11-27-2023 10:17 AM)Thewavefan Wrote:  But yet Tulane will play in the NY6 bowl so it all works out in the end.

I'm fine with that. Sun Belt has 12 bowl teams this year, which is a better indicator of overall conference strength than the one team at the top.

Clemson won the National Championship for the 2018 season, but it would be ridiculous to assume the ACC was the best FBS conference that year. Only two ACC teams finished in the AP Top 25, less than the Mountain West, who had three teams in there.

Massey had the ACC as the 5th best conference that year. Colley Matrix listed the ACC in 4th place (ahead of the Pac-12).

Financially, Tulane would bring in $4M for attending a NY6 Bowl. R+L Carrier brings in like 825k for Sunbelt team.

It a massive win for the AAC to dominate the NY6 slot.

The top G5 conference gets a huge payday too. Having a very low mid/bottom robs a conference of that payday

I think acknowledging the multiple facets to "Who is the best" would go a long way on this forum. Everyone (including me) can sometimes get into a headspace of "There can only be one winner", but in reality, there can be multiple winners.

(11-27-2023 10:32 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-27-2023 10:17 AM)Thewavefan Wrote:  But yet Tulane will play in the NY6 bowl so it all works out in the end.

IMO, when a team from a conference plays in the NY6 bowl, it works out for two entities - the school itself, and the commissioner.

The school, in this case Tulane, obviously benefits. The commissioner of the conference does too, as he can crow that "our conference got the NY6 bid", which is a feather in his cap.

For all the other schools in the conference, IMO it is a negative thing, because the school that gets the bid gets a leg up in the only competition that IMO matters, the race to get promoted to a P or M conference. Tulane getting the NY6 bid back to back is IMO a tremendous boost, makes it a front-runner for an M2 bid, as getting the NY6 bid did for UCF, Cincy and even Houston. To me, there are no "conference mates" in the G5, only competitors for the M2 spots that may open.

IMO, fans of other AAC schools were mistaken to root for UCF and Cincy to get the NY6 bid, and any who are doing so now for Tulane or SMU are IMO similarly misguided.

Bad news for my USF and everyone else, as this IMO far outweighs the trivial extra money and prestige that the "conference" gets.

Tulane is peaking at the wrong time. The next bids won't go out for a while, and we have no idea what the Conference sending out invites next time will even look like. The Big 12 decides to grow to 18 and invites 2? The ACC loses 6 to the P2 and 4 to the Big 12 and the leftovers invite some g5s? There's a huge difference there.

Tulane is the 2020s version of Boise St.

(11-27-2023 10:47 AM)Yosef181 Wrote:  

(11-27-2023 10:17 AM)Thewavefan Wrote:  But yet Tulane will play in the NY6 bowl so it all works out in the end.

I'm fine with that. Sun Belt has 12 bowl teams this year, which is a better indicator of overall conference strength than the one team at the top.

Clemson won the National Championship for the 2018 season, but it would be ridiculous to assume the ACC was the best FBS conference that year. Only two ACC teams finished in the AP Top 25, less than the Mountain West, who had three teams in there.

Massey had the ACC as the 5th best conference that year. Colley Matrix listed the ACC in 4th place (ahead of the Pac-12).

Why do I get the feeling that you'd be arguing for the other side if you had Tulane and a bunch of average teams in your conference this year? I freely admit that I'm an SEC homer, but your loyalty to your Conference is quite impressive, even to me.

(11-27-2023 11:38 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-27-2023 10:32 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-27-2023 10:17 AM)Thewavefan Wrote:  But yet Tulane will play in the NY6 bowl so it all works out in the end.

IMO, when a team from a conference plays in the NY6 bowl, it works out for two entities - the school itself, and the commissioner.

The school, in this case Tulane, obviously benefits. The commissioner of the conference does too, as he can crow that "our conference got the NY6 bid", which is a feather in his cap.

For all the other schools in the conference, IMO it is a negative thing, because the school that gets the bid gets a leg up in the only competition that IMO matters, the race to get promoted to a P or M conference. Tulane getting the NY6 bid back to back is IMO a tremendous boost, makes it a front-runner for an M2 bid, as getting the NY6 bid did for UCF, Cincy and even Houston. To me, there are no "conference mates" in the G5, only competitors for the M2 spots that may open.

IMO, fans of other AAC schools were mistaken to root for UCF and Cincy to get the NY6 bid, and any who are doing so now for Tulane or SMU are IMO similarly misguided.

Bad news for my USF and everyone else, as this IMO far outweighs the trivial extra money and prestige that the "conference" gets.

Tulane is peaking at the wrong time. The next bids won't go out for a while, and we have no idea what the Conference sending out invites next time will even look like. The Big 12 decides to grow to 18 and invites 2? The ACC loses 6 to the P2 and 4 to the Big 12 and the leftovers invite some g5s? There's a huge difference there.

Tulane is the 2020s version of Boise St.

I very much disagree. Unlike Boise, Tulane has the market and academics that all the conferences are desperately wanting plus Tulane plays in a much tougher conference than boise does. Tulane can compete in any conference that would select us, unlike Boise. Tulane is the hottest expansion candidate out there, I truly believe that.

(11-27-2023 08:55 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  These are the current Massey Composite conference averages for the G5 conferences. Of course, the bowls may change this:

SBC .............. 78.17
MW ............... 80.58
AAC .............. 92.14
CUSA ............ 92.66
MAC .............. 98.03

So we see that as of now, the G5 has a kind of three-part structure. The SBC and MW are close for #1 and #2. Then there is a significant gap back to the AAC and CUSA, very close at #3 and #4, and then finally another gap, albeit smaller, back to the last place MAC.

The big thing here IMO is the gap between the #2 MW and the #3 AAC. That gap is larger than the gap between the #1 and #5 P5 conferences.

The gap between the best and worst G5 is currently 20 points. Last season, in the final post-bowl MC, the gap was 30 points. The difference being the decline of the AAC. Last year, while the last-place MAC's rating was basically the same, 98, the AAC's first place rating was 68.95, 10 points better than the current first place SBC. So the AAC has lost a whopping 24 points, it is far worse than last year.

We'll see how the bowls change this.

Sagarin is very different, showing MWC #1, SB #2 and AAC #3 but all close together. Then a gap to the MAC with CUSA right behind them. Obviously the mass of programs focus on different things than Sagarin.

Sun Belt is far ahead in out of conference record vs. FBS:
Sun Belt 20-22 47.6%
MWC 14-23 37.8%
CUSA 10-19 34.5%
MAC 10-26 27.8%
AAC 11-31 26.2% (with Navy-Army still to go)

(11-27-2023 11:42 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-27-2023 10:47 AM)Yosef181 Wrote:  

(11-27-2023 10:17 AM)Thewavefan Wrote:  But yet Tulane will play in the NY6 bowl so it all works out in the end.

I'm fine with that. Sun Belt has 12 bowl teams this year, which is a better indicator of overall conference strength than the one team at the top.

Clemson won the National Championship for the 2018 season, but it would be ridiculous to assume the ACC was the best FBS conference that year. Only two ACC teams finished in the AP Top 25, less than the Mountain West, who had three teams in there.

Massey had the ACC as the 5th best conference that year. Colley Matrix listed the ACC in 4th place (ahead of the Pac-12).

Why do I get the feeling that you'd be arguing for the other side if you had Tulane and a bunch of average teams in your conference this year? I freely admit that I'm an SEC homer, but your loyalty to your Conference is quite impressive, even to me.

Thank you! For me, it's the rise from the bottom over the past decade that's made the whole thing exciting. That, and the regional rivalries. App had a big hand in making that happen, and there's pride in that.

I'd be happy either way. At least when it happens this way, there are more bowl games to get excited about.

(11-27-2023 12:12 PM)Thewavefan Wrote:  

(11-27-2023 11:38 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-27-2023 10:32 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-27-2023 10:17 AM)Thewavefan Wrote:  But yet Tulane will play in the NY6 bowl so it all works out in the end.

IMO, when a team from a conference plays in the NY6 bowl, it works out for two entities - the school itself, and the commissioner.

The school, in this case Tulane, obviously benefits. The commissioner of the conference does too, as he can crow that "our conference got the NY6 bid", which is a feather in his cap.

For all the other schools in the conference, IMO it is a negative thing, because the school that gets the bid gets a leg up in the only competition that IMO matters, the race to get promoted to a P or M conference. Tulane getting the NY6 bid back to back is IMO a tremendous boost, makes it a front-runner for an M2 bid, as getting the NY6 bid did for UCF, Cincy and even Houston. To me, there are no "conference mates" in the G5, only competitors for the M2 spots that may open.

IMO, fans of other AAC schools were mistaken to root for UCF and Cincy to get the NY6 bid, and any who are doing so now for Tulane or SMU are IMO similarly misguided.

Bad news for my USF and everyone else, as this IMO far outweighs the trivial extra money and prestige that the "conference" gets.

Tulane is peaking at the wrong time. The next bids won't go out for a while, and we have no idea what the Conference sending out invites next time will even look like. The Big 12 decides to grow to 18 and invites 2? The ACC loses 6 to the P2 and 4 to the Big 12 and the leftovers invite some g5s? There's a huge difference there.

Tulane is the 2020s version of Boise St.

I very much disagree. Unlike Boise, Tulane has the market and academics that all the conferences are desperately wanting plus Tulane plays in a much tougher conference than boise does. Tulane can compete in any conference that would select us, unlike Boise. Tulane is the hottest expansion candidate out there, I truly believe that.

IMO, Tulane is one phone call from a P2 or M2 offering a job to its HC from returning to irrelevance.

And imo the MW of 2014 was much better than this year's AAC, which is a very weak conference.

That said, i agree that right now, if a M2 bid opened up, Tulane would be top of the heap for it.

(11-27-2023 11:04 AM)Yosef181 Wrote:  

(11-27-2023 10:58 AM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  

(11-27-2023 10:55 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

(11-27-2023 10:47 AM)Yosef181 Wrote:  

(11-27-2023 10:17 AM)Thewavefan Wrote:  But yet Tulane will play in the NY6 bowl so it all works out in the end.

I'm fine with that. Sun Belt has 12 bowl teams this year, which is a better indicator of overall conference strength than the one team at the top.

Clemson won the National Championship for the 2018 season, but it would be ridiculous to assume the ACC was the best FBS conference that year. Only two ACC teams finished in the AP Top 25, less than the Mountain West, who had three teams in there.

Massey had the ACC as the 5th best conference that year. Colley Matrix listed the ACC in 4th place (ahead of the Pac-12).

Financially, Tulane would bring in $4M for attending a NY6 Bowl. R+L Carrier brings in like 825k for Sunbelt team.

It a massive win for the AAC to dominate the NY6 slot.

The top G5 conference gets a huge payday too. Having a very low mid/bottom robs a conference of that payday

I think acknowledging the multiple facets to "Who is the best" would go a long way on this forum. Everyone (including me) can sometimes get into a headspace of "There can only be one winner", but in reality, there can be multiple winners.

Very well put and I agree.