With a bunch of the 2 loss teams losing, the NY6 picture is clearing.

In:
Ohio St.
Michigan
Georgia
Florida St.
Washington

All but in:
Oregon
Texas
Alabama
Louisville

The other two spots will most likely come from:
Penn St.
Missouri
Ole Miss
Oklahoma

Only if they win the conference they will get one
Iowa
Arizona
Oklahoma St.
Kansas St.
WVU
Texas Tech
Iowa St.

CCGs:
Alabama-Georgia
FSU-Louisville
Iowa vs. Ohio St./Michigan winner
Washington vs. Oregon or Arizona (AZ in if Oregon loses and tiebreaks work their way)
Big 12-Texas is in with a win and maybe with a loss. Oklahoma St. is in with a Texas win and their own win. Oklahoma and Kansas St. are tied with Oklahoma St. but both lost to them. WVU, ISU, Texas Tech are one game behind those 3 and would need to win and OU/OSU/KSU all to lose and complicated tiebreaks to work in their favor. Haven't seen anyone analyze that scenario.

Liberty-NMSU
Toledo-Miami
Troy-either App St. or Coastal Carolina (latter has head to head tiebreak advantage)
Tulane/UTSA/SMU Tulane/UTSA winner in and SMU in with a win. If SMU loses to Navy then its a tiebreak wtih the Tulane/UTSA loser.
MWC-UNLV wins vs. SJSU and are in. UNLV wins then the Boise-AF winner is in. Otherwise, its a 3 way tie, UNLV, SJSU and the Boise-AF winner and goes to tiebreaks.

Seems like the AAC champ has a big advantage for the NY6 G5 slot. But Liberty, Toledo, Miami, UNLV and Troy have a chance if UTSA wins the AAC.

I hope Toledo wins the MAC, being 12-1.
I hope UTSA wins the AAC.
I hope SJSU wins the MW.
I hope Liberty gets upset by NMSU (wouldn't be a big upset).

Then Toledo would definitely be going.

(11-19-2023 06:45 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  I hope Toledo wins the MAC, being 12-1.
I hope UTSA wins the AAC.
I hope SJSU wins the MW.
I hope Liberty gets upset by NMSU (wouldn't be a big upset).

Then Toledo would definitely be going.

I would enjoy seeing Toledo in a NY6 bowl. Let’s just hope that if they do make they fair better than the last two major bowl reps the MAC has had.

(11-19-2023 06:15 PM)bullet Wrote:  With a bunch of the 2 loss teams losing, the NY6 picture is clearing.

In:
Ohio St.
Michigan
Georgia
Florida St.
Washington

All but in:
Oregon
Texas
Alabama
Louisville

The other two spots will most likely come from:
Penn St.
Missouri
Ole Miss
Oklahoma

Only if they win the conference they will get one
Iowa
Arizona
Oklahoma St.
Kansas St.
WVU
Texas Tech
Iowa St.

CCGs:
Alabama-Georgia
FSU-Louisville
Iowa vs. Ohio St./Michigan winner
Washington vs. Oregon or Arizona (AZ in if Oregon loses and tiebreaks work their way)
Big 12-Texas is in with a win and maybe with a loss. Oklahoma St. is in with a Texas win and their own win. Oklahoma and Kansas St. are tied with Oklahoma St. but both lost to them. WVU, ISU, Texas Tech are one game behind those 3 and would need to win and OU/OSU/KSU all to lose and complicated tiebreaks to work in their favor. Haven't seen anyone analyze that scenario.

Liberty-NMSU
Toledo-Miami
Troy-either App St. or Coastal Carolina (latter has head to head tiebreak advantage)
Tulane/UTSA/SMU Tulane/UTSA winner in and SMU in with a win. If SMU loses to Navy then its a tiebreak wtih the Tulane/UTSA loser.
MWC-UNLV wins vs. SJSU and are in. UNLV wins then the Boise-AF winner is in. Otherwise, its a 3 way tie, UNLV, SJSU and the Boise-AF winner and goes to tiebreaks.

Seems like the AAC champ has a big advantage for the NY6 G5 slot. But Liberty, Toledo, Miami, UNLV and Troy have a chance if UTSA wins the AAC.

Iowa has now played in 5 straight games with fewer than 29 points scored. They've only combined with their opponent to score more than 22 points ONCE in that 5 week span. Ferentz is the ultimate throwback! You offer me 3 yards and a cloud of dust? How about 1.5 yards and a cloud of dust?!

UTSA is a weird one. They are playing great football right now, and things are gonna be tough sort for the Committee if they win out.

Hope Liberty is the G5 team so G5 will have a chance at winning.

Sagarin shows why computers can't be solely relied upon for ranking. http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
Penn St. is 9-2 and is rated one ahead of Texas 10-1. Texas has the #2 SOS. Penn St. is 39. Texas is 2-1 vs. top 10. PSU is 0-2. Texas is 5-1 vs. top 30. PSU is 0-2.
Oregon is 5th at 10-1 ahead of Washington at 11-0 rated 12. Besides UW winning head to head, Oregon has 57 SOS. UW is 25. Oregon is 0-0 vs. top 10 and 3-1 vs. top 30. UW is 1-0 vs. top 10 and 5-0 vs. top 30. Other than Texas and Alabama (4-1) nobody besides UW has more than 3 top 30 wins.

College Football 2023 through games of 2023 November 18 Saturday - Week #12
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.43] [ 2.42] [ 2.44] [ 2.42]
1 Michigan A = 96.36 11 0 70.37( 63) 1 0 | 1 0 | 95.31 1 | 96.74 2 | 97.83 4 BIG TEN-EAST
2 Ohio State A = 96.16 11 0 72.32( 47) 1 0 | 2 0 | 93.99 2 | 96.33 3 | 98.49 2 BIG TEN-EAST
3 Georgia A = 95.70 11 0 70.83( 61) 0 0 | 3 0 | 92.90 4 | 96.83 1 | 97.96 3 SEC-EAST
4 Alabama A = 95.04 10 1 74.86( 24) 1 1 | 4 1 | 91.96 6 | 94.31 4 | 98.64 1 SEC-WEST
5 Oregon A = 93.52 10 1 71.08( 57) 0 0 | 3 1 | 93.95 3 | 92.17 6 | 94.97 5 PAC-12
6 Penn State A = 91.63 9 2 73.10( 39) 0 2 | 0 2 | 92.35 5 | 90.85 8 | 92.49 6 BIG TEN-EAST
7 Texas A = 90.58 10 1 77.08( 2) 2 1 | 5 1 | 89.51 9 | 92.42 5 | 91.02 8 BIG 12
8 Kansas State A = 89.71 8 3 76.04( 8) 0 1 | 3 3 | 89.69 8 | 88.03 11 | 91.39 7 BIG 12
9 Oklahoma A = 89.12 9 2 74.89( 23) 1 0 | 2 2 | 90.53 7 | 89.59 9 | 88.89 11 BIG 12
10 LSU A = 88.98 8 3 74.00( 32) 0 1 | 1 3 | 88.47 10 | 87.27 12 | 90.92 9 SEC-WEST
College Football 2023 through games of 2023 November 18 Saturday - Week #12
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 2.43] [ 2.42] [ 2.44] [ 2.42]
11 Notre Dame A = 88.36 8 3 72.37( 46) 0 1 | 1 3 | 87.94 12 | 86.31 13 | 90.46 10 I-A IND.
12 Washington A = 87.80 11 0 74.86( 25) 1 0 | 5 0 | 88.32 11 | 91.09 7 | 86.76 13 PAC-12
13 Florida State A = 87.54 11 0 69.44( 68) 1 0 | 2 0 | 87.39 13 | 89.41 10 | 87.31 12 ACC
14 Texas A&M A = 84.79 7 4 72.10( 50) 0 1 | 0 3 | 84.86 15 | 82.50 18 | 86.53 14 SEC-WEST
15 Oregon State A = 84.38 8 3 72.68( 44) 0 0 | 2 2 | 85.46 14 | 84.22 15 | 84.31 16 PAC-12
16 Mississippi A = 83.54 9 2 74.26( 31) 1 2 | 2 2 | 84.70 16 | 85.96 14 | 82.24 18 SEC-WEST
17 Tennessee A = 83.38 7 4 75.64( 10) 0 2 | 1 3 | 82.97 18 | 82.52 17 | 84.39 15 SEC-EAST
18 Clemson A = 82.67 7 4 72.69( 43) 0 0 | 2 1 | 81.70 21 | 81.59 22 | 84.10 17 ACC
19 Louisville A = 81.97 10 1 70.26( 64) 0 0 | 1 0 | 82.27 19 | 82.64 16 | 81.70 19 ACC
20 Utah A = 81.54 7 4 77.21( 1) 0 1 | 2 4 | 81.95 20 | 82.07 19 | 81.27 21 PAC-12

Based on the last CFP rankings, #11 would be the cutoff since the G5 is guaranteed a spot. Oregon State was #11 but will drop out with their third loss. It will be interesting to see #12 Penn State vs. #13 Mississippi. If #10 Louisville loses in the ACC Championship they could drop behind both but it won't matter since an ACC team is guaranteed the Orange Bowl slot and it can't be Notre Dame. Missouri is #9 so I'd be surprised if they fall behind both Penn State and Mississippi and out of contention. If Texas loses the Big 12 Championship they're likely out but the Big 12 Champion would make the NY6 so that won't open a slot. If Alabama loses it would be to Georgia and they beat Mississippi so there's little chance they won't be in the NY6. If Oregon loses to Washington again there's a slight chance they fall behind both Penn State and Mississippi (their two losses would both be to an undefeated Washington but Penn State's losses are to Ohio State and Michigan and Mississippi's are to Georgia and Alabama, Penn State beat #16 Iowa, Mississippi #15 LSU, and Oregon's best win would be Oregon State who will drop after the Washington loss and again after Oregon beats them - or Oregon loses to them and they'll be out of the NY6 anyway barring them making the Pac 12 title and beating Washington).

If the rankings don't change, Penn State will likely be in while Mississippi will be the first one out. If you're PSU though, last one in likely means a date with Tulane or whoever the G5 opponent is and first one out would be a Citrus Bowl vs. likely LSU. The NY6 is the NY6 but wouldn't Disney World vs. LSU sound more attractive?