Frank the Tank
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Posts: 18,006
Joined: Jun 2008
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I Root For: Illinois/DePaul
Location: Chicago
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RE: Notre Dame and NBC sign extension through 2029
(11-27-2023 03:11 PM)TerryD Wrote: (11-27-2023 09:50 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote: (11-26-2023 02:11 PM)esayem Wrote: (11-26-2023 01:08 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote: (11-25-2023 07:55 AM)schmolik Wrote: Is moving to streaming "working" for the NFL? Here's the last full weekend of games:
https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2023/11...-football/
MNF: Eagles/Chiefs: 29.02M
CBS Sunday Afternoon Late DH: 20.99M (the lowest rated and least-watched standalone national window this season)
NBC SNF: 18.45M
FOX: 18.05M
Amazon TNF: 12.92M
CBS Early DH: 12.75M
Improving this year and competitive with CBS's early DH window but the NFL would be shooting themselves in the foot giving them Eagles/Chiefs or any top games. The NFL has plenty of inventory and can afford to give away one of 16 games each week as long as it isn't a mega game and can give away one Eagles and one Chiefs game as long as they aren't top games. We'll see what happens with the Peacock playoff game and how many viewers the NFL will lose. If they lose 2-3 million fans, the NFL probably can accept it. If they lose 10 million fans, the NFL will tell NBC to forget games on Peacock, at least until they can prove Peacock will be in more homes. Do you think it's a coincidence that MNF is having higher ratings because the games are available on ABC this year? There will be a growing pains with the push to streaming just like there was a push to cable a few years ago. These days, ESPN games can regularly get the same viewership as the broadcast networks. Are we there yet with streaming? No. NBC might want to push us to Peacock but there's a difference between moving USC-Notre Dame to Peacock and moving say North Carolina-Notre Dame to Peacock (a significant game but not Earth shattering).
I’ll preface this by stating that I have been saying for years that any sports fan that wanted games to move to streaming was crazy and/or didn’t understand the economics of the TV business (where non-sports viewers were subsidizing sports viewers as opposed to the other way around: 20 Lifetime/Hallmark-like channels were still cheaper than one single ESPN). I had always believed that the outcome would be that we would end up paying more money for more services but end up with fewer games compared to the traditional cable bundle. That is exactly what’s happening.
Having said that, the proverbial genie is out of the bottle. There is no alternative for the entertainment companies other than having a plan for a streaming future because the cable bundle is a dying business and that’s never going to come back.
The NFL is happy with the Amazon numbers because they’re not trying to compare them to the OTA network games, which are the most-watched programs on all of television. The league *knew* the Amazon games would have less viewership. The NFL was actually initially expecting lower numbers than what Amazon got last year in the first year of the TNF contract and the TNF numbers have gone up substantially this year, so the Amazon viewership have substantially exceeded the NFL’s expectations.
More importantly, Amazon has actually gotten very high ratings in the age 18-34 demographic and often beats the afternoon Fox and CBS games in that metrics, which is something that makes the NFL *really* happy. That’s showing that Amazon actually is bringing in new younger viewers (and if anyone knows anything about advertising, younger viewers are gold that are worth a huge premium while older viewers over age 49 are empty calories that pad viewer numbers but don’t do much for advertising revenue). The NFL wasn’t expecting that from Amazon, so they definitely that as a success.
Now, I do think it’s REALLY important to note that “streaming” isn’t some monolith where all platforms are the same. That is one of the biggest mistakes that I see when people analyze streaming sports where they often just put all of the platforms into the same bucket. It’s like saying “the Internet” is a monolith where Amazon and some sole proprietor website are in the same universe when they are clearly completely different.
Amazon, Netflix, and Disney+/Hulu are now in more homes than ESPN, so they have distribution that is similar or even arguably better than basic cable. Putting games on one of those platforms wouldn’t be a niche move for a league - those are arguably equivalent or better platforms than ESPN at this point.
In contrast, Peacock and AppleTV+ are in around 20-25 million homes, which is only one-third of ESPN and a fraction of the OTA networks. Even if every single Peacock or AppleTV+ subscriber were tuned into a game, it would still be less than the viewership of the Eagles-Chiefs game that you referred to. So, any league going onto those platforms would *clearly* be limiting their audience.
Now, what Comcast wants is to get Peacock up to the Amazon/Netflix/Disney+ subscriber levels. I have serious doubts that will ever happen, but Comcast clearly wants to try. Comcast is paying over $100 million for a single NFL Wild Card Game that is exclusive to Peacock this year. If Comcast is wiling to put an NFL playoff game on solely Peacock, which would garner a higher rating on NBC than virtually *any* college football game, then we’ve absolutely crossed the rubicon where they could put ND-USC onto Peacock. Putting an NFL playoff game on Peacock means that Comcast would put *anything* on Peacock. I’m not judging whether that’s a good idea or bad idea, but just noting that there are truly no limits on what valuable programming could end up on Peacock at this point.
HA! I watched sports in the 90's as a kid, did you? Do you know what satellite cost (we didn't have it)?!! I can stream UC Santa Barbara vs Jonestown lacrosse nowadays for peanuts!
Yes, there’s certainly more sports available compared to the 90s and it’s fair to point out that minor sports like lacrosse are now available on streaming.
However, I’m looking at it from the 2005-2020 timeframe as the sweet spot for sports that people actually care about. What most people care about is access to their local pro and power conference sports teams plus the major national games and playoff games for those sports. That constitutes the vast majority of sports viewership across the country. For most of this century, every single one of those games was available on a single basic cable package for most major markets. There was no random Sunday afternoon MLB game on Peacock or major NFL game on Amazon or SEC game on ESPN+.
So yes, I should have qualified my statement. There is a greater sheer volume of sports content with streaming today. However, when it comes to the 4 major pro sports leagues and power conference football and basketball, we now need to pay more (both cable *and* multiple streaming services) to get the same content that we had with just basic cable only 4 years ago.
I have DirecTV, but had to subscribe to the FUBO 7 day free trial to watch ND/Stanford or on the PAC 12 Network.
I subscribed on Saturday afternoon and cancelled it immediately after the conclusion of the ND game
So, I got to watch it for free. Otherwise, I would not have watched it and instead would have just followed it online.
And look - I’m not some anti-streaming Luddite. My cable channels are streamed via Hulu Live TV+ and we subscribe to every major streaming service: Netflix, Disney Bundle (Disney+/Hulu/ESPN+), Max, Paramount+, Apple TV+, Peacock, and Amazon Prime Video. Add on top the Marquee Sports Network streaming service during MLB season (for Cubs games since it’s not included with Hulu Live TV+) and the Hulu sports pack during the fall (for NFL Red Zone). That is what happens when you have 4 people in a household with totally different interests.
So, I’m probably in the top percentile of streaming users, but I also recognize that it’s not a great business model for either the entertainment companies or sports organizations and it’s not a cost saver for sports fans compared to the old basic cable model.
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