We know that ESPN absolutely doesn't want to leave the SEC out of the Playoff. What are they really hoping for?

Well Georgia winning would make things easier for everyone. There's a slim and none chance that both Alabama and Georgia will make the Playoff. Alabama historically has been the bigger name and bigger draw but Georgia is the two time defending champion and Alabama did lose at home to Texas. If you're the SEC and you had to bank on one team to win the national championship, would you rather push your chips in on Georgia or Alabama? I mean the odds of Alabama winning are probably high but Georgia would be even higher. Which school if you're ESPN would draw higher ratings? Today it probably makes no difference. If Georgia wins, there's no controversy. If Alabama wins, you might have to explain why Alabama deserves to make it over a Texas team that beat them. If I'm ESPN or the SEC, it's easier to just root for Georgia.

Next best thing would be for Louisville to win the ACC championship. Louisville would have no argument over Alabama if both win out, especially after Jordan Travis's injury. You can't lose to a 3-8 team and expect to make the Playoff.

You'd love for Iowa to win the Big Ten but the Big Ten West has never won the Big Ten Championship Game and Iowa lost 31-0 to a Penn State team than lost to both Ohio State and Michigan, the two teams Iowa could play. I would say that would be a longshot.

The next thing to root for would be Oregon to beat Washington. If it came down to Oregon, Texas, and Alabama for two spots behind undefeated Florida State and Ohio State/Michigan, the Committee could easily take Texas and Alabama and leave Oregon out. Oregon would have a win over 12-1 Washington, Texas a win over 12-1 Alabama, and Alabama a win over 12-1 Georgia. The Pac 12 started out great but most of the schools have struggled down the stretch. Colorado fell apart. So did Washington State. USC finished 7-5. Oregon State, assuming Oregon wins out, will have four losses. Oregon won't play Arizona this year. It's easy to make an argument to leave out Oregon in this situation and if they really want to keep Alabama in, Oregon could be the sacrificial lamb. It's one thing for ESPN to have to justify leaving Texas out in favor of Alabama, they'd have no issue leaving Oregon out and after this year ESPN will have no rights to Oregon while they still have responsibility to Texas. I guarantee you ESPN would want to protect Alabama but if given the choice to screw over Texas or Oregon they'd happily screw Oregon.

ESPN's nightmare scenario is undefeated Ohio State/Michigan, undefeated Florida State, undefeated Washington, one loss Texas, and one loss Alabama. They'll have to do the right thing and leave out Alabama or screw over an incoming SEC member.

(11-19-2023 11:13 AM)djsuperfly Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 06:30 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  No teams are differentiating themselves this year. Yet a lot of the commentary assumes that the SEC champion will deserve an advantage because of prior years’ results.

UGA 68% + Bama 28% = 96% chance that an SEC team makes the CFP. Quo vadis identified the remaining 4% chance that no SEC team makes the playoff.

OSU 67% + Michigan 63% = 130% chance that a B1G team makes the CFP. IMO, those odds are not “relatively speaking low”. In fact, there are plausible scenarios with both OSU & MI making the playoffs (such as any losses by FSU and Texas).

I fell asleep in Probabilities and Statistics a lot....but I'm pretty sure that's not how any of that works.

Disagree. Read the introductory paragraphs in the ESPN / All-State predictor web site…

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/...-predictor

My main point is that this year is unique because teams are NOT differentiating themselves even within their conferences. Most power conferences have multiple genuine CFP contenders (OSU & UM, OR & WA, and UGA & AL all have solid odds of making the CFP). Even when there are not multiple strong CFP contenders, it would not be a huge upset to have the CFP-contending team lose (e.g., FSU in the ACC, or Texas in the B12). ESPN alludes to this rarity when it gloats about its historical accuracy of setting probabilities…“All nine champions were given at least a 65% chance to make the CFP before their championship season even began.“ This season after 11 weeks, only UGA is exceeding that statistical threshold.

The secondary point is that probabilities are cumulative, and they always add-up to 4 CFP participants (or 400%). Last week, the SEC’s cumulative probability was 96%…so there had to be unlikely scenarios that result in the SEC not getting a CFP spot. If you’re arguing against probabilities being cumulative, then you fell asleep at the wrong time…this is not an opinion, it’s a mathematical rule.

Not as bad but what about Georgia, Ohio State/Michigan, Florida State all undefeated, and Oregon and Texas 12-1? Who's #4? In this scenario Texas still beat Alabama but it's a two loss Alabama. Oregon beat a one loss Washington. I think Georgia should be favored over Alabama and Oregon should be favored over Washington even though Washington won the first game, Oregon has won their more recent games by a larger margin while Washington has won close and the first game was in Seattle and the rematch will be on a neutral field.

(11-20-2023 08:41 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(11-19-2023 11:13 AM)djsuperfly Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 06:30 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  No teams are differentiating themselves this year. Yet a lot of the commentary assumes that the SEC champion will deserve an advantage because of prior years’ results.

UGA 68% + Bama 28% = 96% chance that an SEC team makes the CFP. Quo vadis identified the remaining 4% chance that no SEC team makes the playoff.

OSU 67% + Michigan 63% = 130% chance that a B1G team makes the CFP. IMO, those odds are not “relatively speaking low”. In fact, there are plausible scenarios with both OSU & MI making the playoffs (such as any losses by FSU and Texas).

I fell asleep in Probabilities and Statistics a lot....but I'm pretty sure that's not how any of that works.

Disagree. Read the introductory paragraphs in the ESPN / All-State predictor web site…

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/...-predictor

My main point is that this year is unique because teams are NOT differentiating themselves even within their conferences. Most power conferences have multiple genuine CFP contenders (OSU & UM, OR & WA, and UGA & AL all have solid odds of making the CFP). Even when there are not multiple strong CFP contenders, it would not be a huge upset to have the CFP-contending team lose (e.g., FSU in the ACC, or Texas in the B12). ESPN alludes to this rarity when it gloats about its historical accuracy of setting probabilities…“All nine champions were given at least a 65% chance to make the CFP before their championship season even began.“ This season after 11 weeks, only UGA is exceeding that statistical threshold.

The secondary point is that probabilities are cumulative, and they always add-up to 4 CFP participants (or 400%). Last week, the SEC’s cumulative probability was 96%…so there had to be unlikely scenarios that result in the SEC not getting a CFP spot. If you’re arguing against probabilities being cumulative, then you fell asleep at the wrong time…this is not an opinion, it’s a mathematical rule.

Of course there are scenarios where both SEC teams make the playoff and both B1G teams miss (not the same scenario, mind you), so it isn’t as discrete as “4% chance the SEC misses”. There may be a 14% they both miss and a 10% both make it.