(11-15-2023 09:11 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The CFP could likely face some really, really tough choices. Last year, things were so clear cut that TCU (TCU!) could lose its CCG but still get in. This year, with so many strong unbeaten and one-loss teams, I am not sure anyone is safe, not even a Georgia or an Ohio State or Michigan that goes in to their CCG unbeaten. So let's consider this ...

Let's say Washington and FSU go unbeaten, finish as undefeated PAC and ACC champs. Presumably they are in. So that's two spots off the table. Now let's say Michigan runs the table, barely beats unbeaten Ohio State in the B1G title game. As an unbeaten B1G champ, they are surely in, so three spots are taken.

Now let's say TX and Alabama win out, Texas dominates OK State in the B12 CCG, Alabama beats Georgia in a thriller.

So now you have one-loss Georgia, Ohio State, Texas and Alabama teams. TX and AL are both conference champs, TX beat AL head to head, Ohio State was ranked well ahead of both and barely lost, and you have a twice defending champ Georgia team, that also barely lost.

Who gets that last spot? Or does the CFP do the unthinkable and actually keep out either FSU or Washington, an unbeaten P5 champ, to get two or even three of these in?

TOUGH CHOICE.

This is not a nightmare scenario by any means. they will just pick on of the one loss teams and claim that they had a better resume over the others. Then the talking heads will state how great the expanded playoffs will be. This will all be forgotten next year and live will go on. I am looking forward to Saban bitching and moaning lol.

(11-15-2023 01:17 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 01:13 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Nightmare would include 1-loss Louisville and Oregon upending 12-0 teams in their CCGs and 12-0 Michigan losing to Iowa (or Maryland). Throw in the eventual SEC champ losing on rivalry week and you’ve got a “nightmare” scenario.

Who then? That is 9 plausible playoff teams. I’m not even sure who’d be cut in an 8-team playoff.

Maryland can actually make the B1G CCG? I never thought that possible, LOL.

I added that mostly to say “a 12-1 Michigan”. If they beat Ohio State I don’t think it matters whether the loss is to Iowa or Maryland.

(11-15-2023 01:19 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 11:15 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 10:55 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  This scenario is unlikely, but it’s comical to read some of these comments. The CFP would almost certainly choose: 1) Michigan (13-0), 2) Washington (13-0), 3) FSU (13-0), and 4) Texas (12-1)…picking four P5 conference champions, and the Longhorns convincing win in Tuscaloosa is the tie-breaker over SEC champion #5 Alabama.

If folks are honestly worried about excluding the champion from the “best conference”, then they should support more conference champions being included in the expanded 12-team playoffs. If folks want to select CFP teams based on Las Vegas odds or recent-games performance, then they need to first proactively seek to modify the rules. The scenario is the worst-case for the SEC.

You're assuming that Texas and Alabama would be seen as tied. I'd say odds are pretty darn good that the committee would not see them as tied.

There are no assumptions.

The CFP committee has had Texas ahead of Alabama for the past three weeks. Texas actually beat Alabama 34-24, in Tuscaloosa this year. The CFP committee has guidelines that require it to incorporate H2H results in rankings.

Unless Texas loses another game, Alabama is not going to jump ahead of Texas in the CFP rankings.

Alabama beating #1 team in the country would change the algebra considerably. Something that Texas just can't match.

(11-15-2023 03:22 PM)Crayton Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 01:17 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 01:13 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Nightmare would include 1-loss Louisville and Oregon upending 12-0 teams in their CCGs and 12-0 Michigan losing to Iowa (or Maryland). Throw in the eventual SEC champ losing on rivalry week and you’ve got a “nightmare” scenario.

Who then? That is 9 plausible playoff teams. I’m not even sure who’d be cut in an 8-team playoff.

Maryland can actually make the B1G CCG? I never thought that possible, LOL.

I added that mostly to say “a 12-1 Michigan”. If they beat Ohio State I don’t think it matters whether the loss is to Iowa or Maryland.

With their absolute **** SOS Michigan must be undefeated I think.

(11-15-2023 01:30 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 01:22 PM)superdeluxe Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 11:25 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 09:11 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The CFP could likely face some really, really tough choices. Last year, things were so clear cut that TCU (TCU!) could lose its CCG but still get in. This year, with so many strong unbeaten and one-loss teams, I am not sure anyone is safe, not even a Georgia or an Ohio State or Michigan that goes in to their CCG unbeaten. So let's consider this ...

Let's say Washington and FSU go unbeaten, finish as undefeated PAC and ACC champs. Presumably they are in. So that's two spots off the table. Now let's say Michigan runs the table, barely beats unbeaten Ohio State in the B1G title game. As an unbeaten B1G champ, they are surely in, so three spots are taken.

Now let's say TX and Alabama win out, Texas dominates OK State in the B12 CCG, Alabama beats Georgia in a thriller.

So now you have one-loss Georgia, Ohio State, Texas and Alabama teams. TX and AL are both conference champs, TX beat AL head to head, Ohio State was ranked well ahead of both and barely lost, and you have a twice defending champ Georgia team, that also barely lost.

Who gets that last spot? Or does the CFP do the unthinkable and actually keep out either FSU or Washington, an unbeaten P5 champ, to get two or even three of these in?

TOUGH CHOICE.

The whole B.S. souffle' is built upon some really specious early season data. Utah's opening week win over a grossly overrated Florida helped build the PAC's reputation. Wins over some very questionable Big 10 schools bolstered it. Florida will likely wind up with a losing record since they close with a good Missouri team on the road and FSU at home. Utah turned out to be less stellar than thought. So who exactly have Oregon and Washington played, but each other? Are they good? Yes! Are they national championship quality? Not if you watch them play.

Then there is the whole Michigan / Ohio State matter. Notre Dame turned out to be good, but not great. Save a boneheaded mistake on the last play of the game against Ohio State where they were missing their right Defensive End on Ohio State's last play the Buckeyes have a loss. And Notre Dame as a great win has only diminished with the passing of the season. They have both beaten Penn State now. Who has Penn State played outside of the Big 10? Who will Michigan have beaten of any quality outside of Penn State, and Ohio State when they play them?

People are forgetting that Georgia is a two time standing national champion. And the Alabama squad that lost a close one with Texas in the opening game of the season, when any new QB is just really learning, is a tough scenario. Since then Milroe has only gotten stronger and with him Alabama.

The narrative of the SEC having a down year happened because Alabama opened with a neutral site game against Texas, L.S.U. played in Tallahassee, and an overrated Florida opened on the road at Utah.

I mean that’s fair about early out of conference match ups and what those teams look like now, but I also think there is something to be said about one conference playing a 8 game conference schedule Vs others playing 9 conference games and beating each other up a bit more

Yes - while I think the SEC is the best on-the-field football conference overall (and I say that as a Big Ten fan), it always drives me nuts that there’s a lack of acknowledgement of 9 conference games vs. 8 conference games (where Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac-12 teams have generally played at least 10 P5 opponents per year while SEC schools get the same credit despite often playing only 9 P5 opponents per year). Like I’ve said, I’m not disputing the general SEC superiority at the top, but the “strength in non-conference” element is countered that other leagues are playing an additional league game instead of what is typically a G5 or FCS pay day home game. Alabama gets credit for the Texas non-conference game, yet they’re playing the same number of P4 teams as Michigan (whose non-conference schedule is mocked). An apples-to-apples non-conference comparison would be Bama having that Texas game treated as a conference game (which it will be next year) and then the other 3 games are the “true” non-conference games.

Yeah sorry but like Michigan playing a extra **** Big Ten west team doesn't help excuse their schedule at all.

(11-15-2023 01:42 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 01:07 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 10:55 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  This scenario is unlikely, but it’s comical to read some of these comments. The CFP would almost certainly choose: 1) Michigan (13-0), 2) Washington (13-0), 3) FSU (13-0), and 4) Texas (12-1)…picking four P5 conference champions, and the Longhorns convincing win in Tuscaloosa is the tie-breaker over SEC champion #5 Alabama.

If folks are honestly worried about excluding the champion from the “best conference”, then they should support more conference champions being included in the expanded 12-team playoffs. If folks want to select CFP teams based on Las Vegas odds or recent-games performance, then they need to first proactively seek to modify the rules. The scenario is the worst-case for the SEC.

So you think they will leave out a 12-1 SEC champ Alabama team that may end up arguably playing the toughest schedule in the country, in favor of an FSU team that skated through a weak ACC?

Maybe. I do agree that the idea of leaving an unbeaten P5 champ out is unthinkable. But the SEC has never been left out either.

I suspect they would squeeze Alabama in. But I could well be wrong.

In the very unlikely scenario that you provided…yes, a 12-1 SEC champion Alabama would not make the playoffs.

Since you like odds, the current ESPN CFP Predictor:
FSU 69%
Georgia 68%
Ohio State 67%
Michigan 63%
Oregon 52%
Alabama 28%
Texas 26%
Washington 24%

Alabama doesn’t control its destiny in terms of a CFP berth. On the other hand, FSU (and a few other P5 teams) are undefeated and better positioned to make the playoffs.

The reason Alabama is so low is that they're not favored to beat Georgia.

Same reason why Ohio St and Michigan are so relatively speaking low.

(11-15-2023 01:03 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 12:17 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 10:29 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  The Texas/Bama argument is pointless.

Bama would have a win against UGa in Atlanta. The UT loss was too early in the year. And look at the Big 12 this year. It is comically bad. UT gets no credit because they simply can't make up the SoS the rest of the way. They need help. A two loss Oregon taking out Wazzou or something that typically happens to the PAC in their CCG is what they need.

It is apparent more teams in the top five will accumulate additional losses before all is said and done. They are hoping for chaos this year to justify the CFP expansion. But chaos is fun. Hoping for a 5-6 way argument for the top 4 come the final CFP rankings.

Texas has one of the strongest strengths of schedules in the country. Haven't figured out how to find the Massey composite conference rankings, but Sagarin rates the Big 12 2nd behind the SEC.
SEC 80.44
Big 12 78.30
Pac 12 77.61
Big 10 76.34
ACC 73.84

MWC 64.32
SB 63.41
AAC 62.31
MAC 59.42
CUSA 58.02

MVC 55.59
Big Sky 51.74

https://masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf

Massey Composite currently has #7 Alabama and #8 Texas.

Also, forward looking, Alabama will be playing a top 3 (in just about every metric) and undefeated Georgia in the CCG, whereas Texas will be playing a much lower ranked 2 loss team in their CCG.

Only SEC people believe it's a nightmare. Texas beat Alabama. Not only did they win, they won at Alabama. Alabama has to clearly prove they are better than Texas to overcome the head to head advantage. You can say SEC but do we forget Texas is an incoming member? Does the SEC have any responsibility to Texas at all or does that responsibility not start until next July? And if I'm Texas and I get screwed out of a Playoff spot by an Alabama team I beat, wait until next fall. I'll be taking it out on the entire SEC. Too bad Texas and Alabama don't play in 2024. Or next chance I get I'll join the Big Ten.

Does the SEC just cater to Alabama? Last year Alabama lost to Tennessee but all the campaigning was for Alabama to go to the Playoff and not Tennessee and Alabama ranked higher. If I'm UT, I'm PO'ed. Is everyone in the SEC expected to just cater to Alabama. What's next, Georgia will beat Alabama and be expected to give their Playoff spot to Alabama because they're a better team? Why is a conference with Texas and Florida have their headquarters in Alabama? Coincidence? If Alabama wants to make the Playoff, why not just win games?

(11-15-2023 02:29 PM)otown Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 09:11 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The CFP could likely face some really, really tough choices. Last year, things were so clear cut that TCU (TCU!) could lose its CCG but still get in. This year, with so many strong unbeaten and one-loss teams, I am not sure anyone is safe, not even a Georgia or an Ohio State or Michigan that goes in to their CCG unbeaten. So let's consider this ...

Let's say Washington and FSU go unbeaten, finish as undefeated PAC and ACC champs. Presumably they are in. So that's two spots off the table. Now let's say Michigan runs the table, barely beats unbeaten Ohio State in the B1G title game. As an unbeaten B1G champ, they are surely in, so three spots are taken.

Now let's say TX and Alabama win out, Texas dominates OK State in the B12 CCG, Alabama beats Georgia in a thriller.

So now you have one-loss Georgia, Ohio State, Texas and Alabama teams. TX and AL are both conference champs, TX beat AL head to head, Ohio State was ranked well ahead of both and barely lost, and you have a twice defending champ Georgia team, that also barely lost.

Who gets that last spot? Or does the CFP do the unthinkable and actually keep out either FSU or Washington, an unbeaten P5 champ, to get two or even three of these in?

TOUGH CHOICE.

This is not a nightmare scenario by any means. they will just pick on of the one loss teams and claim that they had a better resume over the others. Then the talking heads will state how great the expanded playoffs will be. This will all be forgotten next year and live will go on. I am looking forward to Saban bitching and moaning lol.

In a show of how my hatred has migrated over the years, I'm unsure if I'd rather bama or Texas miss out on the CFP. Ideally, it would be both of them just missing out in a heartbreak ofc.

(11-15-2023 03:51 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 01:19 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 11:15 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 10:55 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  This scenario is unlikely, but it’s comical to read some of these comments. The CFP would almost certainly choose: 1) Michigan (13-0), 2) Washington (13-0), 3) FSU (13-0), and 4) Texas (12-1)…picking four P5 conference champions, and the Longhorns convincing win in Tuscaloosa is the tie-breaker over SEC champion #5 Alabama.

If folks are honestly worried about excluding the champion from the “best conference”, then they should support more conference champions being included in the expanded 12-team playoffs. If folks want to select CFP teams based on Las Vegas odds or recent-games performance, then they need to first proactively seek to modify the rules. The scenario is the worst-case for the SEC.

You're assuming that Texas and Alabama would be seen as tied. I'd say odds are pretty darn good that the committee would not see them as tied.

There are no assumptions.

The CFP committee has had Texas ahead of Alabama for the past three weeks. Texas actually beat Alabama 34-24, in Tuscaloosa this year. The CFP committee has guidelines that require it to incorporate H2H results in rankings.

Unless Texas loses another game, Alabama is not going to jump ahead of Texas in the CFP rankings.

Alabama beating #1 team in the country would change the algebra considerably. Something that Texas just can't match.

??

In your scenario, Texas’ win in Tuscaloosa will still be a better win…than Alabama’s win versus Georgia in a neutral site. If Alabama is ranked higher than Georgia in the final poll, then Texas’ win is by definition better than anything than what Alabama has done or could ever match in 2023.

Georgia won’t be #1 seed if they lose the SEC CCG.

There is a reason why H2H win versus loss is so important…Texas is better than Alabama in 2023. Unless Texas loses another game, Alabama won’t be ranked higher than Texas by the CFP committee.

(11-15-2023 01:30 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 01:22 PM)superdeluxe Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 11:25 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 09:11 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The CFP could likely face some really, really tough choices. Last year, things were so clear cut that TCU (TCU!) could lose its CCG but still get in. This year, with so many strong unbeaten and one-loss teams, I am not sure anyone is safe, not even a Georgia or an Ohio State or Michigan that goes in to their CCG unbeaten. So let's consider this ...

Let's say Washington and FSU go unbeaten, finish as undefeated PAC and ACC champs. Presumably they are in. So that's two spots off the table. Now let's say Michigan runs the table, barely beats unbeaten Ohio State in the B1G title game. As an unbeaten B1G champ, they are surely in, so three spots are taken.

Now let's say TX and Alabama win out, Texas dominates OK State in the B12 CCG, Alabama beats Georgia in a thriller.

So now you have one-loss Georgia, Ohio State, Texas and Alabama teams. TX and AL are both conference champs, TX beat AL head to head, Ohio State was ranked well ahead of both and barely lost, and you have a twice defending champ Georgia team, that also barely lost.

Who gets that last spot? Or does the CFP do the unthinkable and actually keep out either FSU or Washington, an unbeaten P5 champ, to get two or even three of these in?

TOUGH CHOICE.

The whole B.S. souffle' is built upon some really specious early season data. Utah's opening week win over a grossly overrated Florida helped build the PAC's reputation. Wins over some very questionable Big 10 schools bolstered it. Florida will likely wind up with a losing record since they close with a good Missouri team on the road and FSU at home. Utah turned out to be less stellar than thought. So who exactly have Oregon and Washington played, but each other? Are they good? Yes! Are they national championship quality? Not if you watch them play.

Then there is the whole Michigan / Ohio State matter. Notre Dame turned out to be good, but not great. Save a boneheaded mistake on the last play of the game against Ohio State where they were missing their right Defensive End on Ohio State's last play the Buckeyes have a loss. And Notre Dame as a great win has only diminished with the passing of the season. They have both beaten Penn State now. Who has Penn State played outside of the Big 10? Who will Michigan have beaten of any quality outside of Penn State, and Ohio State when they play them?

People are forgetting that Georgia is a two time standing national champion. And the Alabama squad that lost a close one with Texas in the opening game of the season, when any new QB is just really learning, is a tough scenario. Since then Milroe has only gotten stronger and with him Alabama.

The narrative of the SEC having a down year happened because Alabama opened with a neutral site game against Texas, L.S.U. played in Tallahassee, and an overrated Florida opened on the road at Utah.

I mean that’s fair about early out of conference match ups and what those teams look like now, but I also think there is something to be said about one conference playing a 8 game conference schedule Vs others playing 9 conference games and beating each other up a bit more

Yes - while I think the SEC is the best on-the-field football conference overall (and I say that as a Big Ten fan), it always drives me nuts that there’s a lack of acknowledgement of 9 conference games vs. 8 conference games (where Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac-12 teams have generally played at least 10 P5 opponents per year while SEC schools get the same credit despite often playing only 9 P5 opponents per year). Like I’ve said, I’m not disputing the general SEC superiority at the top, but the “strength in non-conference” element is countered that other leagues are playing an additional league game instead of what is typically a G5 or FCS pay day home game. Alabama gets credit for the Texas non-conference game, yet they’re playing the same number of P4 teams as Michigan (whose non-conference schedule is mocked). An apples-to-apples non-conference comparison would be Bama having that Texas game treated as a conference game (which it will be next year) and then the other 3 games are the “true” non-conference games.

IMO, these kinds of issues can be resolved by looking at the overall SOS ratings for teams. In the end, I think what matters is the total SOS, not whether you played tough OOC games or tough conference games.

For example, right now, Sagarin (and yes, there are a lot of SOS ratings out there) says Alabama has played the toughest schedule in the country, while Michigan has played around the #49 schedule. Michigan's will surely improve when they play Ohio State, but still. When I look at the end of season SOS, the SEC teams are usually pretty high on those lists overall, usually compare favorably with other conferences.

So if playing one fewer conference game makes for a softer schedule, that will come out in the SOS washing, so to speak. If it doesn't, it probably means a tougher OOC schedule balanced it out, or a tougher conference schedule did. In some, maybe many, cases, playing 8 games in a tough conference like the SEC might be better than playing 9 in a softer P5 conference.

(11-15-2023 03:55 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 01:42 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 01:07 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 10:55 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  This scenario is unlikely, but it’s comical to read some of these comments. The CFP would almost certainly choose: 1) Michigan (13-0), 2) Washington (13-0), 3) FSU (13-0), and 4) Texas (12-1)…picking four P5 conference champions, and the Longhorns convincing win in Tuscaloosa is the tie-breaker over SEC champion #5 Alabama.

If folks are honestly worried about excluding the champion from the “best conference”, then they should support more conference champions being included in the expanded 12-team playoffs. If folks want to select CFP teams based on Las Vegas odds or recent-games performance, then they need to first proactively seek to modify the rules. The scenario is the worst-case for the SEC.

So you think they will leave out a 12-1 SEC champ Alabama team that may end up arguably playing the toughest schedule in the country, in favor of an FSU team that skated through a weak ACC?

Maybe. I do agree that the idea of leaving an unbeaten P5 champ out is unthinkable. But the SEC has never been left out either.

I suspect they would squeeze Alabama in. But I could well be wrong.

In the very unlikely scenario that you provided…yes, a 12-1 SEC champion Alabama would not make the playoffs.

Since you like odds, the current ESPN CFP Predictor:
FSU 69%
Georgia 68%
Ohio State 67%
Michigan 63%
Oregon 52%
Alabama 28%
Texas 26%
Washington 24%

Alabama doesn’t control its destiny in terms of a CFP berth. On the other hand, FSU (and a few other P5 teams) are undefeated and better positioned to make the playoffs.

The reason Alabama is so low is that they're not favored to beat Georgia.

Same reason why Ohio St and Michigan are so relatively speaking low.

No teams are differentiating themselves this year. Yet a lot of the commentary assumes that the SEC champion will deserve an advantage because of prior years’ results.

UGA 68% + Bama 28% = 96% chance that an SEC team makes the CFP. Quo vadis identified the remaining 4% chance that no SEC team makes the playoff.

OSU 67% + Michigan 63% = 130% chance that a B1G team makes the CFP. IMO, those odds are not “relatively speaking low”. In fact, there are plausible scenarios with both OSU & MI making the playoffs (such as any losses by FSU and Texas).

(11-15-2023 06:24 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 01:30 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 01:22 PM)superdeluxe Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 11:25 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 09:11 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The CFP could likely face some really, really tough choices. Last year, things were so clear cut that TCU (TCU!) could lose its CCG but still get in. This year, with so many strong unbeaten and one-loss teams, I am not sure anyone is safe, not even a Georgia or an Ohio State or Michigan that goes in to their CCG unbeaten. So let's consider this ...

Let's say Washington and FSU go unbeaten, finish as undefeated PAC and ACC champs. Presumably they are in. So that's two spots off the table. Now let's say Michigan runs the table, barely beats unbeaten Ohio State in the B1G title game. As an unbeaten B1G champ, they are surely in, so three spots are taken.

Now let's say TX and Alabama win out, Texas dominates OK State in the B12 CCG, Alabama beats Georgia in a thriller.

So now you have one-loss Georgia, Ohio State, Texas and Alabama teams. TX and AL are both conference champs, TX beat AL head to head, Ohio State was ranked well ahead of both and barely lost, and you have a twice defending champ Georgia team, that also barely lost.

Who gets that last spot? Or does the CFP do the unthinkable and actually keep out either FSU or Washington, an unbeaten P5 champ, to get two or even three of these in?

TOUGH CHOICE.

The whole B.S. souffle' is built upon some really specious early season data. Utah's opening week win over a grossly overrated Florida helped build the PAC's reputation. Wins over some very questionable Big 10 schools bolstered it. Florida will likely wind up with a losing record since they close with a good Missouri team on the road and FSU at home. Utah turned out to be less stellar than thought. So who exactly have Oregon and Washington played, but each other? Are they good? Yes! Are they national championship quality? Not if you watch them play.

Then there is the whole Michigan / Ohio State matter. Notre Dame turned out to be good, but not great. Save a boneheaded mistake on the last play of the game against Ohio State where they were missing their right Defensive End on Ohio State's last play the Buckeyes have a loss. And Notre Dame as a great win has only diminished with the passing of the season. They have both beaten Penn State now. Who has Penn State played outside of the Big 10? Who will Michigan have beaten of any quality outside of Penn State, and Ohio State when they play them?

People are forgetting that Georgia is a two time standing national champion. And the Alabama squad that lost a close one with Texas in the opening game of the season, when any new QB is just really learning, is a tough scenario. Since then Milroe has only gotten stronger and with him Alabama.

The narrative of the SEC having a down year happened because Alabama opened with a neutral site game against Texas, L.S.U. played in Tallahassee, and an overrated Florida opened on the road at Utah.

I mean that’s fair about early out of conference match ups and what those teams look like now, but I also think there is something to be said about one conference playing a 8 game conference schedule Vs others playing 9 conference games and beating each other up a bit more

Yes - while I think the SEC is the best on-the-field football conference overall (and I say that as a Big Ten fan), it always drives me nuts that there’s a lack of acknowledgement of 9 conference games vs. 8 conference games (where Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac-12 teams have generally played at least 10 P5 opponents per year while SEC schools get the same credit despite often playing only 9 P5 opponents per year). Like I’ve said, I’m not disputing the general SEC superiority at the top, but the “strength in non-conference” element is countered that other leagues are playing an additional league game instead of what is typically a G5 or FCS pay day home game. Alabama gets credit for the Texas non-conference game, yet they’re playing the same number of P4 teams as Michigan (whose non-conference schedule is mocked). An apples-to-apples non-conference comparison would be Bama having that Texas game treated as a conference game (which it will be next year) and then the other 3 games are the “true” non-conference games.

IMO, these kinds of issues can be resolved by looking at the overall SOS ratings for teams. In the end, I think what matters is the total SOS, not whether you played tough OOC games or tough conference games.

For example, right now, Sagarin (and yes, there are a lot of SOS ratings out there) says Alabama has played the toughest schedule in the country, while Michigan has played around the #49 schedule. Michigan's will surely improve when they play Ohio State, but still. When I look at the end of season SOS, the SEC teams are usually pretty high on those lists overall, usually compare favorably with other conferences.

So if playing one fewer conference game makes for a softer schedule, that will come out in the SOS washing, so to speak. If it doesn't, it probably means a tougher OOC schedule balanced it out, or a tougher conference schedule did. In some, maybe many, cases, playing 8 games in a tough conference like the SEC might be better than playing 9 in a softer P5 conference.

Alabama will drop in SOS in FCS week in the SEC this weekend. although they will still be pretty high.

(11-15-2023 07:13 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 06:24 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 01:30 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 01:22 PM)superdeluxe Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 11:25 AM)JRsec Wrote:  The whole B.S. souffle' is built upon some really specious early season data. Utah's opening week win over a grossly overrated Florida helped build the PAC's reputation. Wins over some very questionable Big 10 schools bolstered it. Florida will likely wind up with a losing record since they close with a good Missouri team on the road and FSU at home. Utah turned out to be less stellar than thought. So who exactly have Oregon and Washington played, but each other? Are they good? Yes! Are they national championship quality? Not if you watch them play.

Then there is the whole Michigan / Ohio State matter. Notre Dame turned out to be good, but not great. Save a boneheaded mistake on the last play of the game against Ohio State where they were missing their right Defensive End on Ohio State's last play the Buckeyes have a loss. And Notre Dame as a great win has only diminished with the passing of the season. They have both beaten Penn State now. Who has Penn State played outside of the Big 10? Who will Michigan have beaten of any quality outside of Penn State, and Ohio State when they play them?

People are forgetting that Georgia is a two time standing national champion. And the Alabama squad that lost a close one with Texas in the opening game of the season, when any new QB is just really learning, is a tough scenario. Since then Milroe has only gotten stronger and with him Alabama.

The narrative of the SEC having a down year happened because Alabama opened with a neutral site game against Texas, L.S.U. played in Tallahassee, and an overrated Florida opened on the road at Utah.

I mean that’s fair about early out of conference match ups and what those teams look like now, but I also think there is something to be said about one conference playing a 8 game conference schedule Vs others playing 9 conference games and beating each other up a bit more

Yes - while I think the SEC is the best on-the-field football conference overall (and I say that as a Big Ten fan), it always drives me nuts that there’s a lack of acknowledgement of 9 conference games vs. 8 conference games (where Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac-12 teams have generally played at least 10 P5 opponents per year while SEC schools get the same credit despite often playing only 9 P5 opponents per year). Like I’ve said, I’m not disputing the general SEC superiority at the top, but the “strength in non-conference” element is countered that other leagues are playing an additional league game instead of what is typically a G5 or FCS pay day home game. Alabama gets credit for the Texas non-conference game, yet they’re playing the same number of P4 teams as Michigan (whose non-conference schedule is mocked). An apples-to-apples non-conference comparison would be Bama having that Texas game treated as a conference game (which it will be next year) and then the other 3 games are the “true” non-conference games.

IMO, these kinds of issues can be resolved by looking at the overall SOS ratings for teams. In the end, I think what matters is the total SOS, not whether you played tough OOC games or tough conference games.

For example, right now, Sagarin (and yes, there are a lot of SOS ratings out there) says Alabama has played the toughest schedule in the country, while Michigan has played around the #49 schedule. Michigan's will surely improve when they play Ohio State, but still. When I look at the end of season SOS, the SEC teams are usually pretty high on those lists overall, usually compare favorably with other conferences.

So if playing one fewer conference game makes for a softer schedule, that will come out in the SOS washing, so to speak. If it doesn't, it probably means a tougher OOC schedule balanced it out, or a tougher conference schedule did. In some, maybe many, cases, playing 8 games in a tough conference like the SEC might be better than playing 9 in a softer P5 conference.

Alabama will drop in SOS in FCS week in the SEC this weekend. although they will still be pretty high.

Yes, Chattanooga will hurt their SOS, but then of course Georgia in the CCG will help.

(11-15-2023 03:55 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 01:42 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 01:07 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 10:55 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  This scenario is unlikely, but it’s comical to read some of these comments. The CFP would almost certainly choose: 1) Michigan (13-0), 2) Washington (13-0), 3) FSU (13-0), and 4) Texas (12-1)…picking four P5 conference champions, and the Longhorns convincing win in Tuscaloosa is the tie-breaker over SEC champion #5 Alabama.

If folks are honestly worried about excluding the champion from the “best conference”, then they should support more conference champions being included in the expanded 12-team playoffs. If folks want to select CFP teams based on Las Vegas odds or recent-games performance, then they need to first proactively seek to modify the rules. The scenario is the worst-case for the SEC.

So you think they will leave out a 12-1 SEC champ Alabama team that may end up arguably playing the toughest schedule in the country, in favor of an FSU team that skated through a weak ACC?

Maybe. I do agree that the idea of leaving an unbeaten P5 champ out is unthinkable. But the SEC has never been left out either.

I suspect they would squeeze Alabama in. But I could well be wrong.

In the very unlikely scenario that you provided…yes, a 12-1 SEC champion Alabama would not make the playoffs.

Since you like odds, the current ESPN CFP Predictor:
FSU 69%
Georgia 68%
Ohio State 67%
Michigan 63%
Oregon 52%
Alabama 28%
Texas 26%
Washington 24%

Alabama doesn’t control its destiny in terms of a CFP berth. On the other hand, FSU (and a few other P5 teams) are undefeated and better positioned to make the playoffs.

The reason Alabama is so low is that they're not favored to beat Georgia.

Same reason why Ohio St and Michigan are so relatively speaking low.

That's a good point. FSU is high because they don't have any challenges left.

They don't have many challenges in the rear view mirror either. I think they need to hope LSU doesn't lose another game.

I still can't believe an unbeaten P5 champ could be left out of the playoffs in favor of a one-loss team, but if someone told me that it happened this year, I would bet it is FSU it happened to. Their resume says they are a soft unbeaten team in a soft conference, IMHO, relative to the other unbeatens, though obviously they are a very good team.

(11-15-2023 06:30 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 03:55 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 01:42 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 01:07 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 10:55 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  This scenario is unlikely, but it’s comical to read some of these comments. The CFP would almost certainly choose: 1) Michigan (13-0), 2) Washington (13-0), 3) FSU (13-0), and 4) Texas (12-1)…picking four P5 conference champions, and the Longhorns convincing win in Tuscaloosa is the tie-breaker over SEC champion #5 Alabama.

If folks are honestly worried about excluding the champion from the “best conference”, then they should support more conference champions being included in the expanded 12-team playoffs. If folks want to select CFP teams based on Las Vegas odds or recent-games performance, then they need to first proactively seek to modify the rules. The scenario is the worst-case for the SEC.

So you think they will leave out a 12-1 SEC champ Alabama team that may end up arguably playing the toughest schedule in the country, in favor of an FSU team that skated through a weak ACC?

Maybe. I do agree that the idea of leaving an unbeaten P5 champ out is unthinkable. But the SEC has never been left out either.

I suspect they would squeeze Alabama in. But I could well be wrong.

In the very unlikely scenario that you provided…yes, a 12-1 SEC champion Alabama would not make the playoffs.

Since you like odds, the current ESPN CFP Predictor:
FSU 69%
Georgia 68%
Ohio State 67%
Michigan 63%
Oregon 52%
Alabama 28%
Texas 26%
Washington 24%

Alabama doesn’t control its destiny in terms of a CFP berth. On the other hand, FSU (and a few other P5 teams) are undefeated and better positioned to make the playoffs.

The reason Alabama is so low is that they're not favored to beat Georgia.

Same reason why Ohio St and Michigan are so relatively speaking low.

No teams are differentiating themselves this year. Yet a lot of the commentary assumes that the SEC champion will deserve an advantage because of prior years’ results.

UGA 68% + Bama 28% = 96% chance that an SEC team makes the CFP. Quo vadis identified the remaining 4% chance that no SEC team makes the playoff.

OSU 67% + Michigan 63% = 130% chance that a B1G team makes the CFP. IMO, those odds are not “relatively speaking low”. In fact, there are plausible scenarios with both OSU & MI making the playoffs (such as any losses by FSU and Texas).

I think an SEC champ with a loss will deserve an advantage because IMO even under my scenario (unbeaten Wash, FSU, Michigan and one loss TX) that team will almost surely be in the top 4 of the various computer composites, like the old BCS composite, or the Massey Composite. It will be ranked ahead of at least one of those other four, probably more than one, possibly even #1. If they aren't, then I don't think they would deserve an advantage or spot in the playoffs.

As for the eye test or human bias, I would bet that if Michigan, FSU and Washington all finish unbeaten, and Texas and Alabama both finish as 12-1 conference champs, that most people would regard Alabama as not only deserving, but also as the #1 team. Meaning I think Alabama would be a betting favorite if matched against any of those teams in a bowl or playoff game. Georgia likely would be too. That again IMO would speak to worthiness.

I agree about the B1G. It is entirely possible that the B1G puts two teams in, depending on how the chips fall in other places, and the chips may well fall in other places. The CFP put both in last year, they could well do it again.

That 12 team playoff can't come soon enough.

(11-15-2023 06:30 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  No teams are differentiating themselves this year. Yet a lot of the commentary assumes that the SEC champion will deserve an advantage because of prior years’ results.

UGA 68% + Bama 28% = 96% chance that an SEC team makes the CFP. Quo vadis identified the remaining 4% chance that no SEC team makes the playoff.

OSU 67% + Michigan 63% = 130% chance that a B1G team makes the CFP. IMO, those odds are not “relatively speaking low”. In fact, there are plausible scenarios with both OSU & MI making the playoffs (such as any losses by FSU and Texas).

I fell asleep in Probabilities and Statistics a lot....but I'm pretty sure that's not how any of that works.

(11-16-2023 08:42 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 07:13 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 06:24 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 01:30 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 01:22 PM)superdeluxe Wrote:  I mean that’s fair about early out of conference match ups and what those teams look like now, but I also think there is something to be said about one conference playing a 8 game conference schedule Vs others playing 9 conference games and beating each other up a bit more

Yes - while I think the SEC is the best on-the-field football conference overall (and I say that as a Big Ten fan), it always drives me nuts that there’s a lack of acknowledgement of 9 conference games vs. 8 conference games (where Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac-12 teams have generally played at least 10 P5 opponents per year while SEC schools get the same credit despite often playing only 9 P5 opponents per year). Like I’ve said, I’m not disputing the general SEC superiority at the top, but the “strength in non-conference” element is countered that other leagues are playing an additional league game instead of what is typically a G5 or FCS pay day home game. Alabama gets credit for the Texas non-conference game, yet they’re playing the same number of P4 teams as Michigan (whose non-conference schedule is mocked). An apples-to-apples non-conference comparison would be Bama having that Texas game treated as a conference game (which it will be next year) and then the other 3 games are the “true” non-conference games.

IMO, these kinds of issues can be resolved by looking at the overall SOS ratings for teams. In the end, I think what matters is the total SOS, not whether you played tough OOC games or tough conference games.

For example, right now, Sagarin (and yes, there are a lot of SOS ratings out there) says Alabama has played the toughest schedule in the country, while Michigan has played around the #49 schedule. Michigan's will surely improve when they play Ohio State, but still. When I look at the end of season SOS, the SEC teams are usually pretty high on those lists overall, usually compare favorably with other conferences.

So if playing one fewer conference game makes for a softer schedule, that will come out in the SOS washing, so to speak. If it doesn't, it probably means a tougher OOC schedule balanced it out, or a tougher conference schedule did. In some, maybe many, cases, playing 8 games in a tough conference like the SEC might be better than playing 9 in a softer P5 conference.

Alabama will drop in SOS in FCS week in the SEC this weekend. although they will still be pretty high.

Yes, Chattanooga will hurt their SOS, but then of course Georgia in the CCG will help.

SOS per Sagarin
Rank School SOS
3. Georgia 61
2. Ohio St. 47
1. Michigan 63
13. FSU 68
12. Washington 25
5. Oregon 57
7. Texas 2
4. Alabama 24
22. Missouri 26
19. Louisville 64

(11-15-2023 09:11 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The CFP could likely face some really, really tough choices. Last year, things were so clear cut that TCU (TCU!) could lose its CCG but still get in. This year, with so many strong unbeaten and one-loss teams, I am not sure anyone is safe, not even a Georgia or an Ohio State or Michigan that goes in to their CCG unbeaten. So let's consider this ...

Let's say Washington and FSU go unbeaten, finish as undefeated PAC and ACC champs. Presumably they are in. So that's two spots off the table. Now let's say Michigan runs the table, barely beats unbeaten Ohio State in the B1G title game. As an unbeaten B1G champ, they are surely in, so three spots are taken.

Now let's say TX and Alabama win out, Texas dominates OK State in the B12 CCG, Alabama beats Georgia in a thriller.

So now you have one-loss Georgia, Ohio State, Texas and Alabama teams. TX and AL are both conference champs, TX beat AL head to head, Ohio State was ranked well ahead of both and barely lost, and you have a twice defending champ Georgia team, that also barely lost.

Who gets that last spot? Or does the CFP do the unthinkable and actually keep out either FSU or Washington, an unbeaten P5 champ, to get two or even three of these in?

TOUGH CHOICE.

If Iowa wins the B10 CCG game what happens next. Michigan and Ohio st aren’t playing in the b10 CCG. Only one of them gets the chance to play Iowa. You know that right?