I'm still thinking the Pac 12 at least simplifies things with some upsets these next couple of weeks. Texas has some tough games. Alabama has Auburn. Tennessee may be tough for UGA.

(11-15-2023 11:34 AM)UpStreamRedTeam Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 09:11 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The CFP could likely face some really, really tough choices. Last year, things were so clear cut that TCU (TCU!) could lose its CCG but still get in. This year, with so many strong unbeaten and one-loss teams, I am not sure anyone is safe, not even a Georgia or an Ohio State or Michigan that goes in to their CCG unbeaten. So let's consider this ...

Let's say Washington and FSU go unbeaten, finish as undefeated PAC and ACC champs. Presumably they are in. So that's two spots off the table. Now let's say Michigan runs the table, barely beats unbeaten Ohio State in the B1G title game. As an unbeaten B1G champ, they are surely in, so three spots are taken.

Now let's say TX and Alabama win out, Texas dominates OK State in the B12 CCG, Alabama beats Georgia in a thriller.

So now you have one-loss Georgia, Ohio State, Texas and Alabama teams. TX and AL are both conference champs, TX beat AL head to head, Ohio State was ranked well ahead of both and barely lost, and you have a twice defending champ Georgia team, that also barely lost.

Who gets that last spot? Or does the CFP do the unthinkable and actually keep out either FSU or Washington, an unbeaten P5 champ, to get two or even three of these in?

TOUGH CHOICE.

Your B1G scenario is impossible. Michigan and Ohio State play in the regular season and the winner will play the B1G West champ.

Wow, thanks for pointing that out!

So Michigan and tOSU face off in the regular season game, let's say Michigan wins, then wins the CCG. So we now have a one loss Ohio State sitting there, but the loss came in the regular season not the B1G title game.

(11-15-2023 12:17 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 10:29 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  The Texas/Bama argument is pointless.

Bama would have a win against UGa in Atlanta. The UT loss was too early in the year. And look at the Big 12 this year. It is comically bad. UT gets no credit because they simply can't make up the SoS the rest of the way. They need help. A two loss Oregon taking out Wazzou or something that typically happens to the PAC in their CCG is what they need.

It is apparent more teams in the top five will accumulate additional losses before all is said and done. They are hoping for chaos this year to justify the CFP expansion. But chaos is fun. Hoping for a 5-6 way argument for the top 4 come the final CFP rankings.

Texas has one of the strongest strengths of schedules in the country. Haven't figured out how to find the Massey composite conference rankings, but Sagarin rates the Big 12 2nd behind the SEC.
SEC 80.44
Big 12 78.30
Pac 12 77.61
Big 10 76.34
ACC 73.84

MWC 64.32
SB 63.41
AAC 62.31
MAC 59.42
CUSA 58.02

MVC 55.59
Big Sky 51.74

https://masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf

Massey Composite currently has #7 Alabama and #8 Texas.

(11-15-2023 10:55 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  This scenario is unlikely, but it’s comical to read some of these comments. The CFP would almost certainly choose: 1) Michigan (13-0), 2) Washington (13-0), 3) FSU (13-0), and 4) Texas (12-1)…picking four P5 conference champions, and the Longhorns convincing win in Tuscaloosa is the tie-breaker over SEC champion #5 Alabama.

If folks are honestly worried about excluding the champion from the “best conference”, then they should support more conference champions being included in the expanded 12-team playoffs. If folks want to select CFP teams based on Las Vegas odds or recent-games performance, then they need to first proactively seek to modify the rules. The scenario is the worst-case for the SEC.

So you think they will leave out a 12-1 SEC champ Alabama team that may end up arguably playing the toughest schedule in the country, in favor of an FSU team that skated through a weak ACC?

Maybe. I do agree that the idea of leaving an unbeaten P5 champ out is unthinkable. But the SEC has never been left out either.

I suspect they would squeeze Alabama in. But I could well be wrong.

Nightmare would include 1-loss Louisville and Oregon upending 12-0 teams in their CCGs and 12-0 Michigan losing to Iowa (or Maryland). Throw in the eventual SEC champ losing on rivalry week and you’ve got a “nightmare” scenario.

Who then? That is 9 plausible playoff teams. I’m not even sure who’d be cut in an 8-team playoff.

(11-15-2023 01:07 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 10:55 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  This scenario is unlikely, but it’s comical to read some of these comments. The CFP would almost certainly choose: 1) Michigan (13-0), 2) Washington (13-0), 3) FSU (13-0), and 4) Texas (12-1)…picking four P5 conference champions, and the Longhorns convincing win in Tuscaloosa is the tie-breaker over SEC champion #5 Alabama.

If folks are honestly worried about excluding the champion from the “best conference”, then they should support more conference champions being included in the expanded 12-team playoffs. If folks want to select CFP teams based on Las Vegas odds or recent-games performance, then they need to first proactively seek to modify the rules. The scenario is the worst-case for the SEC.

So you think they will leave out a 12-1 SEC champ Alabama team that may end up arguably playing the toughest schedule in the country, in favor of an FSU team that skated through a weak ACC?

Maybe. I do agree that the idea of leaving an unbeaten P5 champ out is unthinkable. But the SEC has never been left out either.

I suspect they would squeeze Alabama in. But I could well be wrong.

Did anyone really think FSU was #3 in 2014? But they ranked them there because they were unbeaten.

(11-15-2023 01:13 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Nightmare would include 1-loss Louisville and Oregon upending 12-0 teams in their CCGs and 12-0 Michigan losing to Iowa (or Maryland). Throw in the eventual SEC champ losing on rivalry week and you’ve got a “nightmare” scenario.

Who then? That is 9 plausible playoff teams. I’m not even sure who’d be cut in an 8-team playoff.

Maryland can actually make the B1G CCG? I never thought that possible, LOL.

(11-15-2023 11:15 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 10:55 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  This scenario is unlikely, but it’s comical to read some of these comments. The CFP would almost certainly choose: 1) Michigan (13-0), 2) Washington (13-0), 3) FSU (13-0), and 4) Texas (12-1)…picking four P5 conference champions, and the Longhorns convincing win in Tuscaloosa is the tie-breaker over SEC champion #5 Alabama.

If folks are honestly worried about excluding the champion from the “best conference”, then they should support more conference champions being included in the expanded 12-team playoffs. If folks want to select CFP teams based on Las Vegas odds or recent-games performance, then they need to first proactively seek to modify the rules. The scenario is the worst-case for the SEC.

You're assuming that Texas and Alabama would be seen as tied. I'd say odds are pretty darn good that the committee would not see them as tied.

There are no assumptions.

The CFP committee has had Texas ahead of Alabama for the past three weeks. Texas actually beat Alabama 34-24, in Tuscaloosa this year. The CFP committee has guidelines that require it to incorporate H2H results in rankings.

Unless Texas loses another game, Alabama is not going to jump ahead of Texas in the CFP rankings.

(11-15-2023 01:15 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 01:07 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 10:55 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  This scenario is unlikely, but it’s comical to read some of these comments. The CFP would almost certainly choose: 1) Michigan (13-0), 2) Washington (13-0), 3) FSU (13-0), and 4) Texas (12-1)…picking four P5 conference champions, and the Longhorns convincing win in Tuscaloosa is the tie-breaker over SEC champion #5 Alabama.

If folks are honestly worried about excluding the champion from the “best conference”, then they should support more conference champions being included in the expanded 12-team playoffs. If folks want to select CFP teams based on Las Vegas odds or recent-games performance, then they need to first proactively seek to modify the rules. The scenario is the worst-case for the SEC.

So you think they will leave out a 12-1 SEC champ Alabama team that may end up arguably playing the toughest schedule in the country, in favor of an FSU team that skated through a weak ACC?

Maybe. I do agree that the idea of leaving an unbeaten P5 champ out is unthinkable. But the SEC has never been left out either.

I suspect they would squeeze Alabama in. But I could well be wrong.

Did anyone really think FSU was #3 in 2014? But they ranked them there because they were unbeaten.

I think it was a little more than that. Not only was FSU unbeaten, they were (a) the only unbeaten FBS team, and (b) they were the defending unbeaten national champion. They also © had Jameis Winston, the Heisman Trophy winner and the biggest name in CFB at the time. All of those things made it impossible to exclude them, IMO.

The current FSU team would have none of those three things.

In the end, I would think the CFP would believe that Alabama and Georgia were two of the best four teams in the country. I can see one being left out, but both?

Again .. maybe, IMO.

(11-15-2023 11:25 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 09:11 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The CFP could likely face some really, really tough choices. Last year, things were so clear cut that TCU (TCU!) could lose its CCG but still get in. This year, with so many strong unbeaten and one-loss teams, I am not sure anyone is safe, not even a Georgia or an Ohio State or Michigan that goes in to their CCG unbeaten. So let's consider this ...

Let's say Washington and FSU go unbeaten, finish as undefeated PAC and ACC champs. Presumably they are in. So that's two spots off the table. Now let's say Michigan runs the table, barely beats unbeaten Ohio State in the B1G title game. As an unbeaten B1G champ, they are surely in, so three spots are taken.

Now let's say TX and Alabama win out, Texas dominates OK State in the B12 CCG, Alabama beats Georgia in a thriller.

So now you have one-loss Georgia, Ohio State, Texas and Alabama teams. TX and AL are both conference champs, TX beat AL head to head, Ohio State was ranked well ahead of both and barely lost, and you have a twice defending champ Georgia team, that also barely lost.

Who gets that last spot? Or does the CFP do the unthinkable and actually keep out either FSU or Washington, an unbeaten P5 champ, to get two or even three of these in?

TOUGH CHOICE.

The whole B.S. souffle' is built upon some really specious early season data. Utah's opening week win over a grossly overrated Florida helped build the PAC's reputation. Wins over some very questionable Big 10 schools bolstered it. Florida will likely wind up with a losing record since they close with a good Missouri team on the road and FSU at home. Utah turned out to be less stellar than thought. So who exactly have Oregon and Washington played, but each other? Are they good? Yes! Are they national championship quality? Not if you watch them play.

Then there is the whole Michigan / Ohio State matter. Notre Dame turned out to be good, but not great. Save a boneheaded mistake on the last play of the game against Ohio State where they were missing their right Defensive End on Ohio State's last play the Buckeyes have a loss. And Notre Dame as a great win has only diminished with the passing of the season. They have both beaten Penn State now. Who has Penn State played outside of the Big 10? Who will Michigan have beaten of any quality outside of Penn State, and Ohio State when they play them?

People are forgetting that Georgia is a two time standing national champion. And the Alabama squad that lost a close one with Texas in the opening game of the season, when any new QB is just really learning, is a tough scenario. Since then Milroe has only gotten stronger and with him Alabama.

The narrative of the SEC having a down year happened because Alabama opened with a neutral site game against Texas, L.S.U. played in Tallahassee, and an overrated Florida opened on the road at Utah.

I mean that’s fair about early out of conference match ups and what those teams look like now, but I also think there is something to be said about one conference playing a 8 game conference schedule Vs others playing 9 conference games and beating each other up a bit more

We seem to go through this every year.

With a month to go, there are a bunch of chaos scenarios.

By the end, the CFP selection show ends up being the most anticlimactic exercise ever because it’s so predictable.

Sure, a total unexpected upset (e.g. Iowa over Ohio State/Michigan for the Big Ten title) can upend things, but that’s always been true. That’s what makes them unexpected upsets.

The most realistic “chaos” scenario that would actually have to make the CFP committee think is Alabama beating Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.

I’m just glad that this is the last year of this 4-team playoff. The CFP selection process next year is going to have a lot more variability and unpredictability (which is why we watch sports).

(11-15-2023 01:22 PM)superdeluxe Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 11:25 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 09:11 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The CFP could likely face some really, really tough choices. Last year, things were so clear cut that TCU (TCU!) could lose its CCG but still get in. This year, with so many strong unbeaten and one-loss teams, I am not sure anyone is safe, not even a Georgia or an Ohio State or Michigan that goes in to their CCG unbeaten. So let's consider this ...

Let's say Washington and FSU go unbeaten, finish as undefeated PAC and ACC champs. Presumably they are in. So that's two spots off the table. Now let's say Michigan runs the table, barely beats unbeaten Ohio State in the B1G title game. As an unbeaten B1G champ, they are surely in, so three spots are taken.

Now let's say TX and Alabama win out, Texas dominates OK State in the B12 CCG, Alabama beats Georgia in a thriller.

So now you have one-loss Georgia, Ohio State, Texas and Alabama teams. TX and AL are both conference champs, TX beat AL head to head, Ohio State was ranked well ahead of both and barely lost, and you have a twice defending champ Georgia team, that also barely lost.

Who gets that last spot? Or does the CFP do the unthinkable and actually keep out either FSU or Washington, an unbeaten P5 champ, to get two or even three of these in?

TOUGH CHOICE.

The whole B.S. souffle' is built upon some really specious early season data. Utah's opening week win over a grossly overrated Florida helped build the PAC's reputation. Wins over some very questionable Big 10 schools bolstered it. Florida will likely wind up with a losing record since they close with a good Missouri team on the road and FSU at home. Utah turned out to be less stellar than thought. So who exactly have Oregon and Washington played, but each other? Are they good? Yes! Are they national championship quality? Not if you watch them play.

Then there is the whole Michigan / Ohio State matter. Notre Dame turned out to be good, but not great. Save a boneheaded mistake on the last play of the game against Ohio State where they were missing their right Defensive End on Ohio State's last play the Buckeyes have a loss. And Notre Dame as a great win has only diminished with the passing of the season. They have both beaten Penn State now. Who has Penn State played outside of the Big 10? Who will Michigan have beaten of any quality outside of Penn State, and Ohio State when they play them?

People are forgetting that Georgia is a two time standing national champion. And the Alabama squad that lost a close one with Texas in the opening game of the season, when any new QB is just really learning, is a tough scenario. Since then Milroe has only gotten stronger and with him Alabama.

The narrative of the SEC having a down year happened because Alabama opened with a neutral site game against Texas, L.S.U. played in Tallahassee, and an overrated Florida opened on the road at Utah.

I mean that’s fair about early out of conference match ups and what those teams look like now, but I also think there is something to be said about one conference playing a 8 game conference schedule Vs others playing 9 conference games and beating each other up a bit more

For my two cents, I have not believed that the CFP will somehow diminish the Alabama loss to Texas because it happened at the start of the season. If Alabama gets past Texas in the CFP, it will IMO be because of some other reason, such as Texas losing (duh), or the CFP deciding that Alabama's total body of work was better, etc.

For example, I think that the CFP moving Georgia to #1 is a nice boost for Alabama. If they remain there, there is IMO something special abbot beating #1, that is a helluva last impression to make. The CFP could well move the Michigan- Ohio State winner back to #1, but as of now.

(11-15-2023 01:07 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 10:55 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  This scenario is unlikely, but it’s comical to read some of these comments. The CFP would almost certainly choose: 1) Michigan (13-0), 2) Washington (13-0), 3) FSU (13-0), and 4) Texas (12-1)…picking four P5 conference champions, and the Longhorns convincing win in Tuscaloosa is the tie-breaker over SEC champion #5 Alabama.

If folks are honestly worried about excluding the champion from the “best conference”, then they should support more conference champions being included in the expanded 12-team playoffs. If folks want to select CFP teams based on Las Vegas odds or recent-games performance, then they need to first proactively seek to modify the rules. The scenario is the worst-case for the SEC.

So you think they will leave out a 12-1 SEC champ Alabama team that may end up arguably playing the toughest schedule in the country, in favor of an FSU team that skated through a weak ACC?

Maybe. I do agree that the idea of leaving an unbeaten P5 champ out is unthinkable. But the SEC has never been left out either.

I suspect they would squeeze Alabama in. But I could well be wrong.

They are not leaving out an undefeated "P5" champ this year.

(11-15-2023 01:22 PM)superdeluxe Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 11:25 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 09:11 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The CFP could likely face some really, really tough choices. Last year, things were so clear cut that TCU (TCU!) could lose its CCG but still get in. This year, with so many strong unbeaten and one-loss teams, I am not sure anyone is safe, not even a Georgia or an Ohio State or Michigan that goes in to their CCG unbeaten. So let's consider this ...

Let's say Washington and FSU go unbeaten, finish as undefeated PAC and ACC champs. Presumably they are in. So that's two spots off the table. Now let's say Michigan runs the table, barely beats unbeaten Ohio State in the B1G title game. As an unbeaten B1G champ, they are surely in, so three spots are taken.

Now let's say TX and Alabama win out, Texas dominates OK State in the B12 CCG, Alabama beats Georgia in a thriller.

So now you have one-loss Georgia, Ohio State, Texas and Alabama teams. TX and AL are both conference champs, TX beat AL head to head, Ohio State was ranked well ahead of both and barely lost, and you have a twice defending champ Georgia team, that also barely lost.

Who gets that last spot? Or does the CFP do the unthinkable and actually keep out either FSU or Washington, an unbeaten P5 champ, to get two or even three of these in?

TOUGH CHOICE.

The whole B.S. souffle' is built upon some really specious early season data. Utah's opening week win over a grossly overrated Florida helped build the PAC's reputation. Wins over some very questionable Big 10 schools bolstered it. Florida will likely wind up with a losing record since they close with a good Missouri team on the road and FSU at home. Utah turned out to be less stellar than thought. So who exactly have Oregon and Washington played, but each other? Are they good? Yes! Are they national championship quality? Not if you watch them play.

Then there is the whole Michigan / Ohio State matter. Notre Dame turned out to be good, but not great. Save a boneheaded mistake on the last play of the game against Ohio State where they were missing their right Defensive End on Ohio State's last play the Buckeyes have a loss. And Notre Dame as a great win has only diminished with the passing of the season. They have both beaten Penn State now. Who has Penn State played outside of the Big 10? Who will Michigan have beaten of any quality outside of Penn State, and Ohio State when they play them?

People are forgetting that Georgia is a two time standing national champion. And the Alabama squad that lost a close one with Texas in the opening game of the season, when any new QB is just really learning, is a tough scenario. Since then Milroe has only gotten stronger and with him Alabama.

The narrative of the SEC having a down year happened because Alabama opened with a neutral site game against Texas, L.S.U. played in Tallahassee, and an overrated Florida opened on the road at Utah.

I mean that’s fair about early out of conference match ups and what those teams look like now, but I also think there is something to be said about one conference playing a 8 game conference schedule Vs others playing 9 conference games and beating each other up a bit more

Yes - while I think the SEC is the best on-the-field football conference overall (and I say that as a Big Ten fan), it always drives me nuts that there’s a lack of acknowledgement of 9 conference games vs. 8 conference games (where Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac-12 teams have generally played at least 10 P5 opponents per year while SEC schools get the same credit despite often playing only 9 P5 opponents per year). Like I’ve said, I’m not disputing the general SEC superiority at the top, but the “strength in non-conference” element is countered that other leagues are playing an additional league game instead of what is typically a G5 or FCS pay day home game. Alabama gets credit for the Texas non-conference game, yet they’re playing the same number of P4 teams as Michigan (whose non-conference schedule is mocked). An apples-to-apples non-conference comparison would be Bama having that Texas game treated as a conference game (which it will be next year) and then the other 3 games are the “true” non-conference games.

(11-15-2023 01:07 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 10:55 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  This scenario is unlikely, but it’s comical to read some of these comments. The CFP would almost certainly choose: 1) Michigan (13-0), 2) Washington (13-0), 3) FSU (13-0), and 4) Texas (12-1)…picking four P5 conference champions, and the Longhorns convincing win in Tuscaloosa is the tie-breaker over SEC champion #5 Alabama.

If folks are honestly worried about excluding the champion from the “best conference”, then they should support more conference champions being included in the expanded 12-team playoffs. If folks want to select CFP teams based on Las Vegas odds or recent-games performance, then they need to first proactively seek to modify the rules. The scenario is the worst-case for the SEC.

So you think they will leave out a 12-1 SEC champ Alabama team that may end up arguably playing the toughest schedule in the country, in favor of an FSU team that skated through a weak ACC?

Maybe. I do agree that the idea of leaving an unbeaten P5 champ out is unthinkable. But the SEC has never been left out either.

I suspect they would squeeze Alabama in. But I could well be wrong.

In the very unlikely scenario that you provided…yes, a 12-1 SEC champion Alabama would not make the playoffs.

Since you like odds, the current ESPN CFP Predictor:
FSU 69%
Georgia 68%
Ohio State 67%
Michigan 63%
Oregon 52%
Alabama 28%
Texas 26%
Washington 24%

Alabama doesn’t control its destiny in terms of a CFP berth. On the other hand, FSU (and a few other P5 teams) are undefeated and better positioned to make the playoffs.

(11-15-2023 01:30 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 01:22 PM)superdeluxe Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 11:25 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 09:11 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The CFP could likely face some really, really tough choices. Last year, things were so clear cut that TCU (TCU!) could lose its CCG but still get in. This year, with so many strong unbeaten and one-loss teams, I am not sure anyone is safe, not even a Georgia or an Ohio State or Michigan that goes in to their CCG unbeaten. So let's consider this ...

Let's say Washington and FSU go unbeaten, finish as undefeated PAC and ACC champs. Presumably they are in. So that's two spots off the table. Now let's say Michigan runs the table, barely beats unbeaten Ohio State in the B1G title game. As an unbeaten B1G champ, they are surely in, so three spots are taken.

Now let's say TX and Alabama win out, Texas dominates OK State in the B12 CCG, Alabama beats Georgia in a thriller.

So now you have one-loss Georgia, Ohio State, Texas and Alabama teams. TX and AL are both conference champs, TX beat AL head to head, Ohio State was ranked well ahead of both and barely lost, and you have a twice defending champ Georgia team, that also barely lost.

Who gets that last spot? Or does the CFP do the unthinkable and actually keep out either FSU or Washington, an unbeaten P5 champ, to get two or even three of these in?

TOUGH CHOICE.

The whole B.S. souffle' is built upon some really specious early season data. Utah's opening week win over a grossly overrated Florida helped build the PAC's reputation. Wins over some very questionable Big 10 schools bolstered it. Florida will likely wind up with a losing record since they close with a good Missouri team on the road and FSU at home. Utah turned out to be less stellar than thought. So who exactly have Oregon and Washington played, but each other? Are they good? Yes! Are they national championship quality? Not if you watch them play.

Then there is the whole Michigan / Ohio State matter. Notre Dame turned out to be good, but not great. Save a boneheaded mistake on the last play of the game against Ohio State where they were missing their right Defensive End on Ohio State's last play the Buckeyes have a loss. And Notre Dame as a great win has only diminished with the passing of the season. They have both beaten Penn State now. Who has Penn State played outside of the Big 10? Who will Michigan have beaten of any quality outside of Penn State, and Ohio State when they play them?

People are forgetting that Georgia is a two time standing national champion. And the Alabama squad that lost a close one with Texas in the opening game of the season, when any new QB is just really learning, is a tough scenario. Since then Milroe has only gotten stronger and with him Alabama.

The narrative of the SEC having a down year happened because Alabama opened with a neutral site game against Texas, L.S.U. played in Tallahassee, and an overrated Florida opened on the road at Utah.

I mean that’s fair about early out of conference match ups and what those teams look like now, but I also think there is something to be said about one conference playing a 8 game conference schedule Vs others playing 9 conference games and beating each other up a bit more

Yes - while I think the SEC is the best on-the-field football conference overall (and I say that as a Big Ten fan), it always drives me nuts that there’s a lack of acknowledgement of 9 conference games vs. 8 conference games (where Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac-12 teams have generally played at least 10 P5 opponents per year while SEC schools get the same credit despite often playing only 9 P5 opponents per year). Like I’ve said, I’m not disputing the general SEC superiority at the top, but the “strength in non-conference” element is countered that other leagues are playing an additional league game instead of what is typically a G5 or FCS pay day home game. Alabama gets credit for the Texas non-conference game, yet they’re playing the same number of P4 teams as Michigan (whose non-conference schedule is mocked). An apples-to-apples non-conference comparison would be Bama having that Texas game treated as a conference game (which it will be next year) and then the other 3 games are the “true” non-conference games.

Alabama 3 non-P5 games:

FCS Chattanooga
3-7 Middle Tennessee
5-5 South Florida

Michigan OOC

2-8 East Carolina
8-2 UNLV
6-5 Bowling Green


Michigan really has a better OOC if you consider the 9 P-5 consideration

(11-15-2023 01:44 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 01:30 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 01:22 PM)superdeluxe Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 11:25 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 09:11 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The CFP could likely face some really, really tough choices. Last year, things were so clear cut that TCU (TCU!) could lose its CCG but still get in. This year, with so many strong unbeaten and one-loss teams, I am not sure anyone is safe, not even a Georgia or an Ohio State or Michigan that goes in to their CCG unbeaten. So let's consider this ...

Let's say Washington and FSU go unbeaten, finish as undefeated PAC and ACC champs. Presumably they are in. So that's two spots off the table. Now let's say Michigan runs the table, barely beats unbeaten Ohio State in the B1G title game. As an unbeaten B1G champ, they are surely in, so three spots are taken.

Now let's say TX and Alabama win out, Texas dominates OK State in the B12 CCG, Alabama beats Georgia in a thriller.

So now you have one-loss Georgia, Ohio State, Texas and Alabama teams. TX and AL are both conference champs, TX beat AL head to head, Ohio State was ranked well ahead of both and barely lost, and you have a twice defending champ Georgia team, that also barely lost.

Who gets that last spot? Or does the CFP do the unthinkable and actually keep out either FSU or Washington, an unbeaten P5 champ, to get two or even three of these in?

TOUGH CHOICE.

The whole B.S. souffle' is built upon some really specious early season data. Utah's opening week win over a grossly overrated Florida helped build the PAC's reputation. Wins over some very questionable Big 10 schools bolstered it. Florida will likely wind up with a losing record since they close with a good Missouri team on the road and FSU at home. Utah turned out to be less stellar than thought. So who exactly have Oregon and Washington played, but each other? Are they good? Yes! Are they national championship quality? Not if you watch them play.

Then there is the whole Michigan / Ohio State matter. Notre Dame turned out to be good, but not great. Save a boneheaded mistake on the last play of the game against Ohio State where they were missing their right Defensive End on Ohio State's last play the Buckeyes have a loss. And Notre Dame as a great win has only diminished with the passing of the season. They have both beaten Penn State now. Who has Penn State played outside of the Big 10? Who will Michigan have beaten of any quality outside of Penn State, and Ohio State when they play them?

People are forgetting that Georgia is a two time standing national champion. And the Alabama squad that lost a close one with Texas in the opening game of the season, when any new QB is just really learning, is a tough scenario. Since then Milroe has only gotten stronger and with him Alabama.

The narrative of the SEC having a down year happened because Alabama opened with a neutral site game against Texas, L.S.U. played in Tallahassee, and an overrated Florida opened on the road at Utah.

I mean that’s fair about early out of conference match ups and what those teams look like now, but I also think there is something to be said about one conference playing a 8 game conference schedule Vs others playing 9 conference games and beating each other up a bit more

Yes - while I think the SEC is the best on-the-field football conference overall (and I say that as a Big Ten fan), it always drives me nuts that there’s a lack of acknowledgement of 9 conference games vs. 8 conference games (where Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac-12 teams have generally played at least 10 P5 opponents per year while SEC schools get the same credit despite often playing only 9 P5 opponents per year). Like I’ve said, I’m not disputing the general SEC superiority at the top, but the “strength in non-conference” element is countered that other leagues are playing an additional league game instead of what is typically a G5 or FCS pay day home game. Alabama gets credit for the Texas non-conference game, yet they’re playing the same number of P4 teams as Michigan (whose non-conference schedule is mocked). An apples-to-apples non-conference comparison would be Bama having that Texas game treated as a conference game (which it will be next year) and then the other 3 games are the “true” non-conference games.

Alabama 3 non-P5 games:

FCS Chattanooga
3-7 Middle Tennessee
5-5 South Florida

Michigan OOC

2-8 East Carolina
8-2 UNLV
6-5 Bowling Green


Michigan really has a better OOC if you consider the 9 P-5 consideration

Alabama opened the season at a neutral venue (in Texas). Michigan opened the season in week #10 with Penn State.

And Frank the bottom of the SEC is Vanderbilt and Miss State as being hapless. South Carolina and Florida as being sub par. The bottom of the Big 10 is much larger.

I give Ohio State a pass because they played Notre Dame in South Bend a quality scheduling move.

Michigan got served up the softest possible conference schedule outside of Ohio State and Penn State.

(11-15-2023 01:51 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Alabama opened the season at a neutral venue (in Texas). Michigan opened the season in week #10 with Penn State.

And Frank the bottom of the SEC is Vanderbilt and Miss State as being hapless. South Carolina and Florida as being sub par. The bottom of the Big 10 is much larger.

I give Ohio State a pass because they played Notre Dame in South Bend a quality scheduling move.

Michigan got served up the softest possible conference schedule outside of Ohio State and Penn State.

Exactly why UM will be out at 11-1, even if there are a slew of upsets. The only school I can see them staying ahead of is a 12-1 FSU.

I dont see a 1 loss SEC champ getting left out.

(11-15-2023 01:51 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 01:44 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 01:30 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 01:22 PM)superdeluxe Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 11:25 AM)JRsec Wrote:  The whole B.S. souffle' is built upon some really specious early season data. Utah's opening week win over a grossly overrated Florida helped build the PAC's reputation. Wins over some very questionable Big 10 schools bolstered it. Florida will likely wind up with a losing record since they close with a good Missouri team on the road and FSU at home. Utah turned out to be less stellar than thought. So who exactly have Oregon and Washington played, but each other? Are they good? Yes! Are they national championship quality? Not if you watch them play.

Then there is the whole Michigan / Ohio State matter. Notre Dame turned out to be good, but not great. Save a boneheaded mistake on the last play of the game against Ohio State where they were missing their right Defensive End on Ohio State's last play the Buckeyes have a loss. And Notre Dame as a great win has only diminished with the passing of the season. They have both beaten Penn State now. Who has Penn State played outside of the Big 10? Who will Michigan have beaten of any quality outside of Penn State, and Ohio State when they play them?

People are forgetting that Georgia is a two time standing national champion. And the Alabama squad that lost a close one with Texas in the opening game of the season, when any new QB is just really learning, is a tough scenario. Since then Milroe has only gotten stronger and with him Alabama.

The narrative of the SEC having a down year happened because Alabama opened with a neutral site game against Texas, L.S.U. played in Tallahassee, and an overrated Florida opened on the road at Utah.

I mean that’s fair about early out of conference match ups and what those teams look like now, but I also think there is something to be said about one conference playing a 8 game conference schedule Vs others playing 9 conference games and beating each other up a bit more

Yes - while I think the SEC is the best on-the-field football conference overall (and I say that as a Big Ten fan), it always drives me nuts that there’s a lack of acknowledgement of 9 conference games vs. 8 conference games (where Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac-12 teams have generally played at least 10 P5 opponents per year while SEC schools get the same credit despite often playing only 9 P5 opponents per year). Like I’ve said, I’m not disputing the general SEC superiority at the top, but the “strength in non-conference” element is countered that other leagues are playing an additional league game instead of what is typically a G5 or FCS pay day home game. Alabama gets credit for the Texas non-conference game, yet they’re playing the same number of P4 teams as Michigan (whose non-conference schedule is mocked). An apples-to-apples non-conference comparison would be Bama having that Texas game treated as a conference game (which it will be next year) and then the other 3 games are the “true” non-conference games.

Alabama 3 non-P5 games:

FCS Chattanooga
3-7 Middle Tennessee
5-5 South Florida

Michigan OOC

2-8 East Carolina
8-2 UNLV
6-5 Bowling Green


Michigan really has a better OOC if you consider the 9 P-5 consideration

Alabama opened the season at a neutral venue (in Texas). Michigan opened the season in week #10 with Penn State.

And Frank the bottom of the SEC is Vanderbilt and Miss State as being hapless. South Carolina and Florida as being sub par. The bottom of the Big 10 is much larger.

I give Ohio State a pass because they played Notre Dame in South Bend a quality scheduling move.

Michigan got served up the softest possible conference schedule outside of Ohio State and Penn State.

Bama had Texas at home although I agree with you otherwise.