North America Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) put out their winter forecast. Key findings:

Quote:1. A large portion of the North American BPS is at risk of insufficient electricity supplies during peak winter conditions.
2. Generator fuel supplies remain at risk during extreme, long-duration cold weather events.
3. Load forecasting in winter is growing in complexity. Underestimating demand is a risk to reliability in extreme cold temperatures.
4. Curtailment of electricity transfers to areas in need during periods of high regional demand is a growing reliability concern.
5. New cold weather Reliability Standards in place at the start of the 2023–2024 winter are aimed at improving coordination between Generator Owners/Operators and BPS Operators.
6. Industry responses to NERC’s Level 3 Alert - Cold Weather Preparations for Extreme Weather Events–III indicate that generator winter preparations are on a positive trend, but freezing temperatures remain a concern for some generators.

But keep shutting down dispatchable baseload (coal) for unreliable intermittents (wind, solar) then wonder why it's cold and dark in January. It'll be fine, I'm sure.

https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliabil...A_2023.pdf

(11-14-2023 02:46 PM)The Sicatoka Wrote:  North America Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) put out their winter forecast. Key findings:

Quote:1. A large portion of the North American BPS is at risk of insufficient electricity supplies during peak winter conditions.
2. Generator fuel supplies remain at risk during extreme, long-duration cold weather events.
3. Load forecasting in winter is growing in complexity. Underestimating demand is a risk to reliability in extreme cold temperatures.
4. Curtailment of electricity transfers to areas in need during periods of high regional demand is a growing reliability concern.
5. New cold weather Reliability Standards in place at the start of the 2023–2024 winter are aimed at improving coordination between Generator Owners/Operators and BPS Operators.
6. Industry responses to NERC’s Level 3 Alert - Cold Weather Preparations for Extreme Weather Events–III indicate that generator winter preparations are on a positive trend, but freezing temperatures remain a concern for some generators.

But keep shutting down dispatchable baseload (coal) for unreliable intermittents (wind, solar) then wonder why it's cold and dark in January. It'll be fine, I'm sure.

https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliabil...A_2023.pdf

That's actually a pretty bad take. Do you have any clue how short we'd be WITHOUT renewables?!?

You can pretend that coal is being shut down solely due to moving to renewables, but that just doesn't comport with the facts. The fracking revolution driving down natural gas prices has hurt coal WAY more than renewables have.

(11-14-2023 02:59 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(11-14-2023 02:46 PM)The Sicatoka Wrote:  North America Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) put out their winter forecast. Key findings:

Quote:1. A large portion of the North American BPS is at risk of insufficient electricity supplies during peak winter conditions.
2. Generator fuel supplies remain at risk during extreme, long-duration cold weather events.
3. Load forecasting in winter is growing in complexity. Underestimating demand is a risk to reliability in extreme cold temperatures.
4. Curtailment of electricity transfers to areas in need during periods of high regional demand is a growing reliability concern.
5. New cold weather Reliability Standards in place at the start of the 2023–2024 winter are aimed at improving coordination between Generator Owners/Operators and BPS Operators.
6. Industry responses to NERC’s Level 3 Alert - Cold Weather Preparations for Extreme Weather Events–III indicate that generator winter preparations are on a positive trend, but freezing temperatures remain a concern for some generators.

But keep shutting down dispatchable baseload (coal) for unreliable intermittents (wind, solar) then wonder why it's cold and dark in January. It'll be fine, I'm sure.

https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliabil...A_2023.pdf

That's actually a pretty bad take. Do you have any clue how short we'd be WITHOUT renewables?!?

Less short, because we wouldnt have to be using some of that coal fired electricity to keep the renewables going during cold spells.

(11-14-2023 02:59 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(11-14-2023 02:46 PM)The Sicatoka Wrote:  North America Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) put out their winter forecast. Key findings:

Quote:1. A large portion of the North American BPS is at risk of insufficient electricity supplies during peak winter conditions.
2. Generator fuel supplies remain at risk during extreme, long-duration cold weather events.
3. Load forecasting in winter is growing in complexity. Underestimating demand is a risk to reliability in extreme cold temperatures.
4. Curtailment of electricity transfers to areas in need during periods of high regional demand is a growing reliability concern.
5. New cold weather Reliability Standards in place at the start of the 2023–2024 winter are aimed at improving coordination between Generator Owners/Operators and BPS Operators.
6. Industry responses to NERC’s Level 3 Alert - Cold Weather Preparations for Extreme Weather Events–III indicate that generator winter preparations are on a positive trend, but freezing temperatures remain a concern for some generators.

But keep shutting down dispatchable baseload (coal) for unreliable intermittents (wind, solar) then wonder why it's cold and dark in January. It'll be fine, I'm sure.

https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliabil...A_2023.pdf

That's actually a pretty bad take. Do you have any clue how short we'd be WITHOUT renewables?!?

You can pretend that coal is being shut down solely due to moving to renewables, but that just doesn't comport with the facts. The fracking revolution driving down natural gas prices has hurt coal WAY more than renewables have.

The shift to renewables and the excessive regulations most certainly contributed to the coal plants shutting down. Obama told us all back in the day he was going after coal plants.
https://time.com/2806697/obama-epa-coal-carbon/

The stupidity in this is that as we shut down coal plants China is building more and more that pollute more than ours did.

(11-14-2023 03:12 PM)bearcat65 Wrote:  

(11-14-2023 02:59 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(11-14-2023 02:46 PM)The Sicatoka Wrote:  North America Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) put out their winter forecast. Key findings:

Quote:1. A large portion of the North American BPS is at risk of insufficient electricity supplies during peak winter conditions.
2. Generator fuel supplies remain at risk during extreme, long-duration cold weather events.
3. Load forecasting in winter is growing in complexity. Underestimating demand is a risk to reliability in extreme cold temperatures.
4. Curtailment of electricity transfers to areas in need during periods of high regional demand is a growing reliability concern.
5. New cold weather Reliability Standards in place at the start of the 2023–2024 winter are aimed at improving coordination between Generator Owners/Operators and BPS Operators.
6. Industry responses to NERC’s Level 3 Alert - Cold Weather Preparations for Extreme Weather Events–III indicate that generator winter preparations are on a positive trend, but freezing temperatures remain a concern for some generators.

But keep shutting down dispatchable baseload (coal) for unreliable intermittents (wind, solar) then wonder why it's cold and dark in January. It'll be fine, I'm sure.

https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliabil...A_2023.pdf

That's actually a pretty bad take. Do you have any clue how short we'd be WITHOUT renewables?!?

You can pretend that coal is being shut down solely due to moving to renewables, but that just doesn't comport with the facts. The fracking revolution driving down natural gas prices has hurt coal WAY more than renewables have.

The shift to renewables and the excessive regulations most certainly contributed to the coal plants shutting down. Obama told us all back in the day he was going after coal plants.
https://time.com/2806697/obama-epa-coal-carbon/

The stupidity in this is that as we shut down coal plants China is building more and more that pollute more than ours did.

Never said they didn't contribute. There were other things that also contributed. Just saying that the fracking boom was likely the biggest culprit.

(11-14-2023 02:59 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(11-14-2023 02:46 PM)The Sicatoka Wrote:  North America Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) put out their winter forecast. Key findings:

Quote:1. A large portion of the North American BPS is at risk of insufficient electricity supplies during peak winter conditions.
2. Generator fuel supplies remain at risk during extreme, long-duration cold weather events.
3. Load forecasting in winter is growing in complexity. Underestimating demand is a risk to reliability in extreme cold temperatures.
4. Curtailment of electricity transfers to areas in need during periods of high regional demand is a growing reliability concern.
5. New cold weather Reliability Standards in place at the start of the 2023–2024 winter are aimed at improving coordination between Generator Owners/Operators and BPS Operators.
6. Industry responses to NERC’s Level 3 Alert - Cold Weather Preparations for Extreme Weather Events–III indicate that generator winter preparations are on a positive trend, but freezing temperatures remain a concern for some generators.

But keep shutting down dispatchable baseload (coal) for unreliable intermittents (wind, solar) then wonder why it's cold and dark in January. It'll be fine, I'm sure.

https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliabil...A_2023.pdf

That's actually a pretty bad take. Do you have any clue how short we'd be WITHOUT renewables?!?

You can pretend that coal is being shut down solely due to moving to renewables, but that just doesn't comport with the facts. The fracking revolution driving down natural gas prices has hurt coal WAY more than renewables have.

But the baseload requirements continue to grow and the current government incentives set up makes building renewable plants very profitable and causes gas or coal based power plant construction economically non-competitive. In fact, in some cases a renewable power plant can be profitable without even generating power due to the incentives.

To be fair---there is nothing wrong with renewables being part of the solution. Im all for that. Just so we understand, the problem isnt peak load production so much as it is "peak load" production when wind or solar isnt producing. For that, we need sufficient fossil based base load or quick start generation that quickly react to grid conditions when needed. Right now---its not economically viable to build those and wont be until we reassess how we incentivize new construction of power production in the US.

Its important that we get this right----especially if we really believe wide spread adoption of EV's is going to happen by 2030.

(11-14-2023 02:59 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(11-14-2023 02:46 PM)The Sicatoka Wrote:  North America Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) put out their winter forecast. Key findings:

Quote:1. A large portion of the North American BPS is at risk of insufficient electricity supplies during peak winter conditions.
2. Generator fuel supplies remain at risk during extreme, long-duration cold weather events.
3. Load forecasting in winter is growing in complexity. Underestimating demand is a risk to reliability in extreme cold temperatures.
4. Curtailment of electricity transfers to areas in need during periods of high regional demand is a growing reliability concern.
5. New cold weather Reliability Standards in place at the start of the 2023–2024 winter are aimed at improving coordination between Generator Owners/Operators and BPS Operators.
6. Industry responses to NERC’s Level 3 Alert - Cold Weather Preparations for Extreme Weather Events–III indicate that generator winter preparations are on a positive trend, but freezing temperatures remain a concern for some generators.

But keep shutting down dispatchable baseload (coal) for unreliable intermittents (wind, solar) then wonder why it's cold and dark in January. It'll be fine, I'm sure.

https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliabil...A_2023.pdf

That's actually a pretty bad take. Do you have any clue how short we'd be WITHOUT renewables?!?

You can pretend that coal is being shut down solely due to moving to renewables, but that just doesn't comport with the facts. The fracking revolution driving down natural gas prices has hurt coal WAY more than renewables have.

For the most part, natural gas isn't used for baseline units.

Natural gas capacity is almost entirely in peaker units. This is because it's a lot easier (read: cheaper) to ramp them up and down quickly.

Coal & nuclear can't ramp up or down very quickly. This has made large natural gas plants a necessity for areas where the grid has become unstable due to excessive amounts of solar/wind capacity (unless there's a ton of hydro nearby, which is also easy to ramp up).

So unlike your contention, the reason for the switch to natural gas is mostly due to the grid instability that wind & solar have brought, which has made large volume peaker units a necessity. That's a much bigger reason than the difference in raw material cost between coal & natural gas.

We keep closing baseload dispatachables (coal, nat gas) because we've incentivized "replacing" them with subsidized wind and solar which are neither dispatable nor reliable. When the sun is shining and the breeze is blowing, yeah, we're long. But when it's cold, dark, and no wind, we're screwed. See: MISO January 2019 max gen event.

Tom, in your quippy retort that I know is coming please include (i) how long you've served on your power cooperative's board of directors, (ii) how many years you've been an officer on the board and which role or roles you hold or held, and (iii) which Generation and Transmission cooperatives' CEOs you have in your phone contacts.

In the spirit of giving: I'll answer (iii) Robert "Mac" McLennan, Minnkota Power, and give the other answers after you share yours.

Mentioning Mac, from his op-ed in the WaPo:

Quote:Some are quick to blame these newfound reliability threats on changing or more extreme weather patterns. That’s part of the story, but there’s a deeper problem that must be acknowledged.

Spurred by policy and market factors, the ongoing energy transition has prioritized premature baseload coal and nuclear plant closures without considering the collective impact on the power grid and the availability of feasible technology to fully replace them. That’s proving to be a dangerous misstep.

In MISO alone, 3,200 megawatts of electric generating capacity have shut down in the past year. That’s enough to keep the lights on in 2.8 million homes.

It's all pie-in-the-sky duckies-bunnies-rainbows-and-unicorns theory until you have to keep the lights on in a level one trauma hospital with a neo-natal ICU during a max gen event.

(11-14-2023 03:47 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  For the most part, natural gas isn't used for baseline units.

Natural gas capacity is almost entirely in peaker units. This is because it's a lot easier (read: cheaper) to ramp them up and down quickly.

Coal & nuclear can't ramp up or down very quickly. This has made large natural gas plants a necessity for areas where the grid has become unstable due to excessive amounts of solar/wind capacity (unless there's a ton of hydro nearby, which is also easy to ramp up).

So unlike your contention, the reason for the switch to natural gas is mostly due to the grid instability that wind & solar have brought, which has made large volume peaker units a necessity. That's a much bigger reason than the difference in raw material cost between coal & natural gas.

Nailed it.

For every MW of renewables you need a peaker to cover the cloudy, calm days. That make every MW more expensive because of the additional cap ex (plant, facilities).

PS - Coal is still cheaper fuel per BTU.

(11-14-2023 03:21 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  Just saying that the fracking boom was likely the biggest culprit.

And you'd be wrong.

Fracking?
It's made little old Montrail-Williams EC in western ND's Bakken the largest (by MW sold) rural cooperative in ND.
It takes electricity to turn those fracked well head pumps.

I remember last winter when it was in the negatives for a few days in a row, the electric company was asking everyone to turn their heat off for an hour or two a day and not to use appliances to help with the load, but yet they didn't reduce their pricing...

(11-14-2023 04:25 PM)gdunn Wrote:  I remember last winter when it was in the negatives for a few days in a row, the electric company was asking everyone to turn their heat off for an hour or two a day and not to use appliances to help with the load, but yet they didn't reduce their pricing...

Be happy you weren't hit with real-time pricing during that event. During the 2021 Texas event real-time wholesale pricing hit $9000/MWh ($9/kWh).

What's normal? $25-50/MWh (aka 2.5 to 5 cents/kWh) wholesale.

ERCOT real time price map
MISO real time price map
(both maps in $/MWh wholesale)

(11-15-2023 08:04 AM)The Sicatoka Wrote:  

(11-14-2023 04:25 PM)gdunn Wrote:  I remember last winter when it was in the negatives for a few days in a row, the electric company was asking everyone to turn their heat off for an hour or two a day and not to use appliances to help with the load, but yet they didn't reduce their pricing...

Be happy you weren't hit with real-time pricing during that event. During the 2021 Texas event real-time wholesale pricing hit $9000/MWh ($9/kWh).

What's normal? $25-50/MWh (aka 2.5 to 5 cents/kWh) wholesale.

ERCOT real time price map
MISO real time price map
(both maps in $/MWh wholesale)

My wife was talking about turning off the heat for a couple of hours and no lights, etc.. I said no.. They can't tell if we used it in real time, they still check meters and at that point our heat was struggling to keep up and turning it off would put us way behind the 8-ball and the heat would take more energy to catch up to where we were..

Our neighbor did.. Our bill was high, theirs was twice as high and their house took days to recover...

If we had another source of heat, would've been a different story but unfortunately we don't but that situation isn't a yearly thing.

Is it me or did bullsh!t like this never happen when Trump was president.

(11-14-2023 03:47 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(11-14-2023 02:59 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(11-14-2023 02:46 PM)The Sicatoka Wrote:  North America Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) put out their winter forecast. Key findings:

Quote:1. A large portion of the North American BPS is at risk of insufficient electricity supplies during peak winter conditions.
2. Generator fuel supplies remain at risk during extreme, long-duration cold weather events.
3. Load forecasting in winter is growing in complexity. Underestimating demand is a risk to reliability in extreme cold temperatures.
4. Curtailment of electricity transfers to areas in need during periods of high regional demand is a growing reliability concern.
5. New cold weather Reliability Standards in place at the start of the 2023–2024 winter are aimed at improving coordination between Generator Owners/Operators and BPS Operators.
6. Industry responses to NERC’s Level 3 Alert - Cold Weather Preparations for Extreme Weather Events–III indicate that generator winter preparations are on a positive trend, but freezing temperatures remain a concern for some generators.

But keep shutting down dispatchable baseload (coal) for unreliable intermittents (wind, solar) then wonder why it's cold and dark in January. It'll be fine, I'm sure.

https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliabil...A_2023.pdf

That's actually a pretty bad take. Do you have any clue how short we'd be WITHOUT renewables?!?

You can pretend that coal is being shut down solely due to moving to renewables, but that just doesn't comport with the facts. The fracking revolution driving down natural gas prices has hurt coal WAY more than renewables have.

For the most part, natural gas isn't used for baseline units.

Natural gas capacity is almost entirely in peaker units. This is because it's a lot easier (read: cheaper) to ramp them up and down quickly.

Coal & nuclear can't ramp up or down very quickly. This has made large natural gas plants a necessity for areas where the grid has become unstable due to excessive amounts of solar/wind capacity (unless there's a ton of hydro nearby, which is also easy to ramp up).

So unlike your contention, the reason for the switch to natural gas is mostly due to the grid instability that wind & solar have brought, which has made large volume peaker units a necessity. That's a much bigger reason than the difference in raw material cost between coal & natural gas.

The problem is, like we saw in Texas in 2021, unless they prepare for severe weather they can't ramp up. 87% of the power generator failures came from the gas being frozen in the wells.

(11-15-2023 08:28 AM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  Is it me or did bullsh!t like this never happen when Trump was president.

Odd right?

(11-15-2023 08:28 AM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  Is it me or did bullsh!t like this never happen when Trump was president.

Go figure...

"Sharp increases in peak demand forecasts and the potential for higher generator retirements are raising concerns for electric reliability over the next 10 years. NERC’s 2023 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA) finds that industry faces mounting pressure to keep pace with accelerating electricity demand, energy needs and transmission system adequacy as the resource mix transitions."

https://www.nerc.com/news/Headlines%20DL...elease.pdf

Where I live?

"However, beginning in 2028, MISO is projected to have a 4.7 GW shortfall if expected generator retirements occur despite the addition of new resources that total over 12 GW."

https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliabil...A_2023.pdf

That translates to rolling blackouts during what today would be considered normal peak usage. And the 4.7 GW shortfall assumes 12 GW comes online. If not, it's a 16.7 GW shortfall.

(11-14-2023 02:59 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(11-14-2023 02:46 PM)The Sicatoka Wrote:  North America Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) put out their winter forecast. Key findings:

Quote:1. A large portion of the North American BPS is at risk of insufficient electricity supplies during peak winter conditions.
2. Generator fuel supplies remain at risk during extreme, long-duration cold weather events.
3. Load forecasting in winter is growing in complexity. Underestimating demand is a risk to reliability in extreme cold temperatures.
4. Curtailment of electricity transfers to areas in need during periods of high regional demand is a growing reliability concern.
5. New cold weather Reliability Standards in place at the start of the 2023–2024 winter are aimed at improving coordination between Generator Owners/Operators and BPS Operators.
6. Industry responses to NERC’s Level 3 Alert - Cold Weather Preparations for Extreme Weather Events–III indicate that generator winter preparations are on a positive trend, but freezing temperatures remain a concern for some generators.

But keep shutting down dispatchable baseload (coal) for unreliable intermittents (wind, solar) then wonder why it's cold and dark in January. It'll be fine, I'm sure.

https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliabil...A_2023.pdf

That's actually a pretty bad take. Do you have any clue how short we'd be WITHOUT renewables?!?

You can pretend that coal is being shut down solely due to moving to renewables, but that just doesn't comport with the facts. The fracking revolution driving down natural gas prices has hurt coal WAY more than renewables have.

I call B.S. TVA shutdown a coal plant in West Tennessee that should still be available. It's not. The government war on coal is very real regardless of other economic pressures.