(11-11-2023 08:56 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  11-1 UM will most definitely be out. You take 12-1 UGa non Conf Champ over them. PAC one loss gets in. UT one loss gets in. You’d have tOSU and Bama as conf champs, so potentially five teams ahead of a UM that loses The Game.

I've got the teams ordered thusly:
11-1 Michigan (non-champ)
12-1 UO/UW (CHAMP)
12-1/11-2 Georgia/Alabama (CHAMP)
12-1 Washington (non-champ)
12-1 Georgia (non-champ)

But those were based on "average" finishes BEFORE this weekend. With Georgia mopping the floor with Lane Kiffin's Rebs, they are likely to move up.

My take after this week’s games:

The CFP is down to 8 possible teams:
Ohio St
Michigan
Georgia
Alabama
Texas
Florida St
Washington
Oregon

I think they are all in win-out-and-get-in scenarios.

A loss takes a few schools out of the conversation completely (Alabama, Texas, Florida St, Oregon). The others can potentially suffer one, but would then need other dominoes to fall into place.

No conference has yet to take themselves out of the conversation and it will be a bitter pill to swallow for the one who ultimately does.

(11-11-2023 08:32 AM)Glenn360 Wrote:  if it comes down to a 1 loss Texas vs a 1 loss Alabama or 1 loss Georgia the choice is Texas because they have the H2H over Alabama and the Conference title over Georgia.

I don't think its even a real debate, because the committee is supposed to consider the conference championship and H2H. Even the talking heads on ESPN won't argue to ignore the H2H.

Even if you go the conspiracy route, Texas will be in the SEC in 2024, and ABC/ESPN constantly runs promos about them being in the conference in 2024. Why would ESPN screw over a property they will have exclusive rights to?

Oh there would be more debate than you probably realize. They’re already clamoring how much Alabama and Jalen Milroe have improved since the Texas loss and Milroe getting benched against South Florida. They’ve completely changed their offense for him. The narrative is already out there. If Alabama beats Auburn and Georgia I’m not sure they get left out as SEC Champs, Texas notwithstanding.

(11-12-2023 09:40 AM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  

(11-11-2023 08:32 AM)Glenn360 Wrote:  if it comes down to a 1 loss Texas vs a 1 loss Alabama or 1 loss Georgia the choice is Texas because they have the H2H over Alabama and the Conference title over Georgia.

I don't think its even a real debate, because the committee is supposed to consider the conference championship and H2H. Even the talking heads on ESPN won't argue to ignore the H2H.

Even if you go the conspiracy route, Texas will be in the SEC in 2024, and ABC/ESPN constantly runs promos about them being in the conference in 2024. Why would ESPN screw over a property they will have exclusive rights to?

Oh there would be more debate than you probably realize. They’re already clamoring how much Alabama and Jalen Milroe have improved since the Texas loss and Milroe getting benched against South Florida. They’ve completely changed their offense for him. The narrative is already out there. If Alabama beats Auburn and Georgia I’m not sure they get left out as SEC Champs, Texas notwithstanding.

Agree. More likely than not a 12-1 Alabama will leap Florida State (ala 2014) and 12-1 Texas is #5 with a 2004-esque media campaign (am I old?) to be #4. The Longhorns will have that win over #3 and will get a serious look if they start winning by 20 or 30 points while FSU doesn’t wrap up Florida or Louisville until the 4th quarter.

The fact that UM is 3 is really telling. They’ve been dominant. But it’s all psychology with them and the committee is praying for them to lose to tOSU. They cannot afford a loss there. Maybe a loss in the CCG (as if they’d lose). Plus The Game is in Ann Arbor so added pressure to win at home. Right now, UT is the odd man out assuming everyone else holds serve, which is likely. However, the PAC tends to play themselves out more often than not because of the parity in that league. Apple Cup and Civil War will be massive trap games and the Beavs and Cougs will be out for vengeance, even if winning costs them millions in post season distributions.

(11-09-2023 05:16 AM)LeeNobody Wrote:  I think the ACC has a Coastal problem. With GT beating Miami and UNC, UNC beating Miami, Pitt beating Lville, Duke beating Clemson, and Miami beating Clemson, the ACC has 'Coastal Chaos'ed itself out of having a second contender. The should have not gotten rid of the division. Keeping the Coastal upsets on one side might have helped the ACC to have a second contender

Conversely, it means that the two best teams play each other since in the old format we would have already seen FSU-Louisville since they were in the same division and the winner would be playing a 3 or 4 loss Coastal champ.

Divisionless would have the tOSU UM winner playing UW in the B1G championship game. A lot of the clutter will be cleared up in the P4 format. What sucks is, the current format is a lot more fun for me. Hoping for some good chaos for the 4-6 positions. Haven’t seen a year like this since ‘14 ‘15 given how every P5 conference has managed to stay relevant in the national race. We will never see a race like this again.

(11-13-2023 10:08 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Divisionless would have the tOSU UM winner playing UW in the B1G championship game. A lot of the clutter will be cleared up in the P4 format. What sucks is, the current format is a lot more fun for me. Hoping for some good chaos for the 4-6 positions. Haven’t seen a year like this since ‘14 ‘15 given how every P5 conference has managed to stay relevant in the national race. We will never see a race like this again.

Yeah, I know there's been concern about OSU and UM rematching each other back to back weeks. I'm not too concerned though looking back to 2011 at divisionless schedules. 2016 was winner plays Penn St. (assuming PSU didn't lose at home to 3-8 MSU, won by 4 TDs). 2018, OSU needed the win over UM to force a rematch in the B1G CCG. 2021, UM needed the win over OSU to force the rematch in the B1G CCG. Last year and likely this year is the scenario that worries me where you'll know going into rivalry week that they'd play each other back to back weeks (both undefeated and 3rd with 2 losses), but adding the PAC 4 schools I think will help reduce the chances of this occurring in the future.

(11-13-2023 12:42 PM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  

(11-13-2023 10:08 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Divisionless would have the tOSU UM winner playing UW in the B1G championship game. A lot of the clutter will be cleared up in the P4 format. What sucks is, the current format is a lot more fun for me. Hoping for some good chaos for the 4-6 positions. Haven’t seen a year like this since ‘14 ‘15 given how every P5 conference has managed to stay relevant in the national race. We will never see a race like this again.

Yeah, I know there's been concern about OSU and UM rematching each other back to back weeks. I'm not too concerned though looking back to 2011 at divisionless schedules. 2016 was winner plays Penn St. (assuming PSU didn't lose at home to 3-8 MSU, won by 4 TDs). 2018, OSU needed the win over UM to force a rematch in the B1G CCG. 2021, UM needed the win over OSU to force the rematch in the B1G CCG. Last year and likely this year is the scenario that worries me where you'll know going into rivalry week that they'd play each other back to back weeks (both undefeated and 3rd with 2 losses), but adding the PAC 4 schools I think will help reduce the chances of this occurring in the future.

They would just rest rivalry weekend before playing at a neutral field CCG assuming both mathematically clinch. It’s when you get to three way ties with one loss teams where it becomes interesting without a double H2H tie breaker. Something like a strength of victory tie breaker in conference perhaps.

(11-13-2023 03:18 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(11-13-2023 12:42 PM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  

(11-13-2023 10:08 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Divisionless would have the tOSU UM winner playing UW in the B1G championship game. A lot of the clutter will be cleared up in the P4 format. What sucks is, the current format is a lot more fun for me. Hoping for some good chaos for the 4-6 positions. Haven’t seen a year like this since ‘14 ‘15 given how every P5 conference has managed to stay relevant in the national race. We will never see a race like this again.

Yeah, I know there's been concern about OSU and UM rematching each other back to back weeks. I'm not too concerned though looking back to 2011 at divisionless schedules. 2016 was winner plays Penn St. (assuming PSU didn't lose at home to 3-8 MSU, won by 4 TDs). 2018, OSU needed the win over UM to force a rematch in the B1G CCG. 2021, UM needed the win over OSU to force the rematch in the B1G CCG. Last year and likely this year is the scenario that worries me where you'll know going into rivalry week that they'd play each other back to back weeks (both undefeated and 3rd with 2 losses), but adding the PAC 4 schools I think will help reduce the chances of this occurring in the future.

They would just rest rivalry weekend before playing at a neutral field CCG assuming both mathematically clinch. It’s when you get to three way ties with one loss teams where it becomes interesting without a double H2H tie breaker. Something like a strength of victory tie breaker in conference perhaps.

It would've happened in 2018, 3 way tie with OSU, UM, and NW. I may have done it wrong, but UM had the best conf. strength of schedule to break the 3 way tie. Then OSU beat NW because they had a better record against common opponents (OSU>UM, UM>NW). I went with the PAC-12 tiebreaker procedure to break the 3 way tie followed by the 2 way tie since they were the only divisionless P5 conference at the time of this study.

Edit: How it played out im 2018 was UM was undefeated going into rivalry week. OSU and NW had 1 loss with NW having the better conf. strength of schedule as the tiebreaker. If OSU lost to UM, that's their 2nd loss and it'd NW-UM with the rematch in the B1G CCG. OSU won forcing the 3-way tie for 1st and the rematch in the B1G CCG with UM.