Quote:There are 1 loss teams with worse resumes than Toledo like Air Force and maybe Tulane depending on who they draw.
The MAC isn't in as tough of a conference as MW and not quite as good as the AAC. So given that, a champion of said conference is going to be ranked higher than the MAC Champ, if having the same record and roughly the same level of OOC games. I agree though, Air Force shouldn't be ranked above Toledo right now, given Air Force's loss is worse than Toledo's + them not (yet) having a tougher schedule. They're ranked the same in the AP Poll. But the valid argument will be made that if Air Force beats Fresno or UNLV for the MW championship, it'll be a bigger feat than Toledo beating Miami-OH for the MAC Championship. Even if by a small amt overall.
As far as Tulane's concerned -- them getting solidly beat by a Good SEC team doesn't do them any good, but not really anything bad when we're talking about 1L teams in the G5. They got a head-start over other mid-majors because of getting there last year, winning their bowl, and expected to be roughly on the same level. And they did beat a decent G5 by 20 (South Alabama), and beat @Memphis by 10 -- which helps counter the too-close games against questionable G5s. They still have a decent G5 on the road (@FAU), and one of the better G5s (UTSA) to finish off the regular season. If they win those, and also beat SMU/UTSA/Memphis in for their championship game -- even if all by very small margins -- one can't at all complain about them being ranked over Toledo, even if Toledo comfortably wins the rest of theirs.
Quote:Toledo played a P5. AFA and Liberty do not. The MAC schedule for Toledo to this point is stronger than both Libertys and Air Forces.
True for Air Force. But when you do lose to the P5 being a team who's struggling to make a bowl without a good SoS -- you're deservingly going to be outpicked by an undefeated G5 champ who also dominated most their games with an easier schedule.
In the end, it's about rankings -- which is an inexact science. Even when trying to get more exact, Toledo has struggled too often in too many halves with non-troubling G5 teams.
If Toledo whipped @Illinois, and you replaced their wins against SJSU to be by 14pts instead, NIU to be by 10pts instead, and win @BSU by 17pts instead -- all while Miami-OH wins out until the MACC which Toledo wins handily -- THEN I would say if Fresno and Tulane got another reg-season loss, they'd control their own destiny. But we're in a different world now.
Instead, the AP rankings which will roughly reflect the 'official' rankings + show past #25, are:
#20 Tulane (1L to good SEC)
#25 Liberty (0L, very easy schedule but dominant)
#27 Fresno State (1L, tough schedule)
#29 Air Force (1L, easy schedule so far)
#29 Toledo (1L to mediocre B1G)
#32 SMU (2L to B12)
Toledo beating EMU, @BGSU, and @CMU + Miami -- isn't going to override Liberty's easier schedule winning out, when they're likely going to play Jacksonville who's arguably as good as Miami-OH. Liberty, understandably, will have to lose a game. Fresno will have to lose a game, given their tougher conference for it to start any legit argument whether Toledo should outdo them if they also win their conf. And Tulane will likely have to lose their Conf Championship game.
Quote:I think TOL drops 1 of their next 3.
Given Toledo's inconsistencies + their schedule not being an easy part to finish things out, I would agree. Beating their rival on the road, @BGSU, with BGSU playing better and with more confidence, while also having to play @Central -- while also not messing up too much against EMU... is a tall order, given their consistency flaws.
IMO, it's about a 33% chance Toledo wins the rest. About 25% chance they do so + beat Miami in MACC. Worse odds than Liberty going undefeated or Tulane losing a game but winning AAC.
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Thoughts on Toledo as the G5 Access Bowl Candidate?
