(11-01-2023 09:57 AM)JSchmack Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 09:59 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  It is a joke to put Tulane ahead of the MWC when the AAC is very weak this year.

Forget that... the REAL JOKE is that both Tulane and Air Force are behind teams with two losses to worse teams like Oklahoma State.

"But the Big 12 schedule is so much harder than the American!"

You can't use the SOS argument when Oklahoma State played a common opponent as Tulane, and the Green Wave beat South Alabama easily by 20.... while South Alabama whooped OKLAHOMA STATE, 33-7.

In the MC, Oklahoma State is 6 positions behind AFA but 5 positions ahead of Tulane.

So compared with the MC, the CFP is being generous to Tulane vs OK State, and generous towards OK State compared to AFA.

Basically, it is significantly underrating AFA and significantly overrating Tulane.

CFP compared to MC:

Tulane ....... +7
OK State ... +4
AFA ........... -6

(11-01-2023 09:52 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(11-01-2023 08:23 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-01-2023 08:16 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

(11-01-2023 08:03 AM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 07:36 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Tulane ahead of Air Force is a real head-scratcher. I'm not aware of any ranking system, human or computer, with Tulane ahead. They just haven't been as good, and in a significantly weaker conference.

Oh well.

This is a big problem for Air Force that the committee put them behind Tulane in spite of being undefeated. I see your point, but both of them only play one team with a winning record to finish the season. Not sure what Air Force is going to be able to do to jump them.

Its in the Media's hands now. Does the media react and bring attention to Air Force?

I expect the Commissioner to be "outraged" but that will largely fall on deaf ears without Air Force themselves making a bold statement.

If there is more attention on the story, the CFP will have to reconsider. Air Force isn't exactly an institution you expect to rock the boat and create controversy. UCF's AD was an upstart and loved the controversy and media attention. That's why he claimed the National Championship after going undefeated. I'd be surprised if Air Force made a bold claim.

Air Force won't need to make any claim. There are more people who have served in the Air Force whether they attended the AFA or not, who are interested when they play than there are alumni living from Tulane, and that's a guesstimate on my part. The nation chooses sides between some form of allegiance to Air Force, Army and Navy and our family has had all three represented. That's what the networks will see as the better market play and they'll play up the "Armed Services" for sentiment. Air Force will have a tussle with Boise State. If they win that they'll be fine.

Boise State is 4-4, beating them isn't going to be some big boost. What would IMO jump AFA over Tulane is if they face 11-1 Fresno in the Championship. Winning that would get them in, and I suspect Fresno at 11-1 beating a 12-0 AFA would have a decent shot to jump Tulane.

Which is why the Fresno Boise game this week is very important. If Fresno drops that game, they are locked out of the ccg unless unlv drops another game. The one thing the MWC has to worry about is a Boise getting hot at the end of the season and screwing up the MWC CCG game participants.

(11-01-2023 10:14 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(11-01-2023 09:52 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(11-01-2023 08:23 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-01-2023 08:16 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

(11-01-2023 08:03 AM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  This is a big problem for Air Force that the committee put them behind Tulane in spite of being undefeated. I see your point, but both of them only play one team with a winning record to finish the season. Not sure what Air Force is going to be able to do to jump them.

Its in the Media's hands now. Does the media react and bring attention to Air Force?

I expect the Commissioner to be "outraged" but that will largely fall on deaf ears without Air Force themselves making a bold statement.

If there is more attention on the story, the CFP will have to reconsider. Air Force isn't exactly an institution you expect to rock the boat and create controversy. UCF's AD was an upstart and loved the controversy and media attention. That's why he claimed the National Championship after going undefeated. I'd be surprised if Air Force made a bold claim.

Air Force won't need to make any claim. There are more people who have served in the Air Force whether they attended the AFA or not, who are interested when they play than there are alumni living from Tulane, and that's a guesstimate on my part. The nation chooses sides between some form of allegiance to Air Force, Army and Navy and our family has had all three represented. That's what the networks will see as the better market play and they'll play up the "Armed Services" for sentiment. Air Force will have a tussle with Boise State. If they win that they'll be fine.

Boise State is 4-4, beating them isn't going to be some big boost. What would IMO jump AFA over Tulane is if they face 11-1 Fresno in the Championship. Winning that would get them in, and I suspect Fresno at 11-1 beating a 12-0 AFA would have a decent shot to jump Tulane.

Which is why the Fresno Boise game this week is very important. If Fresno drops that game, they are locked out of the ccg unless unlv drops another game. The one thing the MWC has to worry about is a Boise getting hot at the end of the season and screwing up the MWC CCG game participants.

Boise has a great chance to ruin the MWC's chances at the access bowl. They play @Fresno this week and then last game of the regular season they host AFA. Wouldn't be stunned in the slightest if they won both games and that would be the end for the MWC's chances.

(11-01-2023 09:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-01-2023 08:03 AM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 07:36 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 06:16 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 06:13 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  As expected the CFP rankings are always much harder on the G5 teams than the AP. Tulane officially the front runner for the NY6 spot.

If Air Force goes undefeated, it will be really, really hard to keep them out.

Tulane ahead of Air Force is a real head-scratcher. I'm not aware of any ranking system, human or computer, with Tulane ahead. They just haven't been as good, and in a significantly weaker conference.

Oh well.

This is a big problem for Air Force that the committee put them behind Tulane in spite of being undefeated. I see your point, but both of them only play one team with a winning record to finish the season. Not sure what Air Force is going to be able to do to jump them.

Seems like the CFP might be just disregarding the Tulane loss to Ole Miss, and evaluating the two teams as if that game doesn't exist.

If so, Tulane might indeed be slightly better than AFA. Of course, no other ranking system does that, nor should the CFP IMO.

If that's the case I wonder if when Ole Miss loses to A&M and UGA if that will knock Tulane behind them?

(11-01-2023 10:22 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(11-01-2023 10:14 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(11-01-2023 09:52 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(11-01-2023 08:23 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-01-2023 08:16 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  Its in the Media's hands now. Does the media react and bring attention to Air Force?

I expect the Commissioner to be "outraged" but that will largely fall on deaf ears without Air Force themselves making a bold statement.

If there is more attention on the story, the CFP will have to reconsider. Air Force isn't exactly an institution you expect to rock the boat and create controversy. UCF's AD was an upstart and loved the controversy and media attention. That's why he claimed the National Championship after going undefeated. I'd be surprised if Air Force made a bold claim.

Air Force won't need to make any claim. There are more people who have served in the Air Force whether they attended the AFA or not, who are interested when they play than there are alumni living from Tulane, and that's a guesstimate on my part. The nation chooses sides between some form of allegiance to Air Force, Army and Navy and our family has had all three represented. That's what the networks will see as the better market play and they'll play up the "Armed Services" for sentiment. Air Force will have a tussle with Boise State. If they win that they'll be fine.

Boise State is 4-4, beating them isn't going to be some big boost. What would IMO jump AFA over Tulane is if they face 11-1 Fresno in the Championship. Winning that would get them in, and I suspect Fresno at 11-1 beating a 12-0 AFA would have a decent shot to jump Tulane.

Which is why the Fresno Boise game this week is very important. If Fresno drops that game, they are locked out of the ccg unless unlv drops another game. The one thing the MWC has to worry about is a Boise getting hot at the end of the season and screwing up the MWC CCG game participants.

Boise has a great chance to ruin the MWC's chances at the access bowl. They play @Fresno this week and then last game of the regular season they host AFA. Wouldn't be stunned in the slightest if they won both games and that would be the end for the MWC's chances.

This is a good point. Even though neither finishes with strong schedules either Tulane or AFA could lose a game between now and the end of the season making all this moot.

(10-31-2023 06:26 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 06:16 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 06:13 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 06:09 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  25) Air Force 8-0
24) Tulane 7-1
23) Kansas St 6-2
22) Oklahoma St 6-2
21) Kansas 6-2
20) USC 7-2
19) UCLA 6-2
18) Utah 6-2
17) Tennessee 6-2
16) Oregon St 6-2
15) Notre Dame 7-2
14) LSU 6-2
13) Louisville 7-1
12) Missouri 7-1
11) Penn St 7-1

As expected the CFP rankings are always much harder on the G5 teams than the AP. Tulane officially the front runner for the NY6 spot.

If Air Force goes undefeated, it will be really, really hard to keep them out.

Maybe if Fresno also wins out and you get a 12-0 vs 11-1 CCG. Undefeated sounds great but if you gave Tulane the same cupcake non-conference schedule they’d be undefeated rn as well.

Sure, call Army and Navy cupcakes (this year they are, but AF has very limited OOC schedule flexibility, and the committee shouldn't hold that against them.

(10-31-2023 07:32 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 06:29 PM)JamesHowell Wrote:  How is Georgia ahead of Michigan? Georgia's YTD schedule is weaker than Michigan's (.312 vs. .472), they have scored slightly fewer points (40.5 ppg vs. 40.63), and they have given up significantly more points (14.75 ppg vs. 5.88). Best win vs. #49 Florida. Michigan has wins vs. #39 Rutgers and @ #46 Minnesota. Michigan's remaining schedule is also tougher than Georgia's.

Georgia got bonus points for not getting caught with their advanced scouting program.

What a scandalous and allegedly misleading suggestion, that Georgia's sophisticated early reconnaissance system is anything as crude as an "advanced scouting program".

However, to be fair, That School Up North's "... remaining schedule is also tougher than Georgia's." is not supposed to be a data point for these rankings. The strength of TSUN's remaining schedule is supposed to enter into the ranking after they take place, and not just by assuming that they will be stronger wins on TSUN's resume than any they have to date.

(10-31-2023 07:38 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 06:33 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  CFP clearly values AAC more than MWC and Sunbelt.

Happy the Big 12 has 4 ranked teams

I would agree, which is baffling, as the SB and especially MW have been considerably better than the AAC this year.

Tulane is still getting perception points off their run from last year. If AFA wins out, they will pass Tulane by in the stadings eventually.

The school that is getting hosed is James Madison.

(11-01-2023 09:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Seems like the CFP might be just disregarding the Tulane loss to Ole Miss, and evaluating the two teams as if that game doesn't exist.

If so, Tulane might indeed be slightly better than AFA. Of course, no other ranking system does that, nor should the CFP IMO.

Part of the explanation for "ignoring" the Ole Miss loss is that:
(a) Air Force hasn't played a top 20 team; and
(b) Tulane's loss to Ole Miss was with their starting QB in street clothes; and the backup kept it close for 54 minutes (20-17) before turning it over on downs, fumbling it (returned for TD) and turning it over downs again.


The more interesting question is where would Tulane be ranked in the CFP if they were undefeated with a win over Ole Miss?

If the committee "forgives" a loss with a backup QB to put Tulane ahead of Air Force; but they're really just dumping Tulane and Air. Force at the bottom because they're G5 and not P5.

So they'll say "Tulane hasn't played anyone." but then rank a two-loss USC team with a WORSE SOS ahead of Tulane:

Michigan SOS is .5536 (31-25), #65 in FBS
Oregon SOS is .5536 (31-25), #65 in FBS
Louisville SOS is .5439 (31-26), #69 in FBS
Tulane SOS is .5273 (29-26), #76 in FBS
USC SOS is .5077 (33-32), #87 in FBS
Georgia SOS is .4912 (28-29), #98 in FBS


They just cherry pick to justify putting teams where they want them.

(11-01-2023 11:42 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 07:32 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 06:29 PM)JamesHowell Wrote:  How is Georgia ahead of Michigan? Georgia's YTD schedule is weaker than Michigan's (.312 vs. .472), they have scored slightly fewer points (40.5 ppg vs. 40.63), and they have given up significantly more points (14.75 ppg vs. 5.88). Best win vs. #49 Florida. Michigan has wins vs. #39 Rutgers and @ #46 Minnesota. Michigan's remaining schedule is also tougher than Georgia's.

Georgia got bonus points for not getting caught with their advanced scouting program.

What a scandalous and allegedly misleading suggestion, that Georgia's sophisticated early reconnaissance system is anything as crude as an "advanced scouting program".

However, to be fair, That School Up North's "... remaining schedule is also tougher than Georgia's." is not supposed to be a data point for these rankings. The strength of TSUN's remaining schedule is supposed to enter into the ranking after they take place, and not just by assuming that they will be stronger wins on TSUN's resume than any they have to date.

I think that is very debatable. I like your Buckeye's defense, but Louisville routed Notre Dame which has now lost twice counting your last second victory at South Bend. Penn State's schedule has been as soft as Michigan's. Michigan has one game remaining against a known quantity and that is your Buckeyes. Are the Buckeyes barely better than Notre Dame, or much better now than they were when they played Notre Dame?

Tennessee is a bit stronger than people thought, Missouri is a lot better than people thought, and strong offensively. And then there is likely Alabama in the CCG.

If Ohio State, with a very impressive defense, can find its stride to prove it is the best Big 10 school I have no quibble with your current assessment. If they aren't, and all they have is a championship quality defense then I don't agree with it at all and will find the Big 10 to have been another paper tiger for the year.

The SEC had a bad opening weekend. First games are always dicey because you don't know what you have until you see them play and the first game your scouting of what the other team will do is about nil. Texas was played at a neutral site in Texas, L.S.U. played in Tallahassee, and Florida, a woeful squad when things kicked off for 2023 was at Utah. It was a perfect storm for the SEC. Georgia has been replacing starters and draftees from last year's squad and is just finding its stride. Alabama has improved and that will get a sturdy test this weekend.

The SEC is not as polished as it has been, but Georgia is still pretty solid on both sides of the ball and the offense is improving every game.

So Bruce, you have a Big 10 which is an unknown quantity with a very small top which may or may not be as strong as they look. You have a deeper SEC where the top didn't look as impressive when it kicked off, but which is seemingly getting stronger.

And then you have Florida State.

The rest I believe are pretenders, though the winner of Washington and Oregon will be in if neither loses another game. If Michigan beats Penn State as well, then the winner of the Big 10 CCG will be in. If Penn State wins that game it could tarnish the results should Michigan then beat your Buckeyes. And if Notre Dame loses again, especially against an imbalanced USC squad then it damages your whole SOS pathway.

Kind of interesting that the 23 power schools ranked were:

#1-5 - Undefeated
#6-13 - 1 Loss
#14-23 - 2 Losses

(11-01-2023 11:32 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 06:26 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 06:16 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 06:13 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 06:09 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  25) Air Force 8-0
24) Tulane 7-1
23) Kansas St 6-2
22) Oklahoma St 6-2
21) Kansas 6-2
20) USC 7-2
19) UCLA 6-2
18) Utah 6-2
17) Tennessee 6-2
16) Oregon St 6-2
15) Notre Dame 7-2
14) LSU 6-2
13) Louisville 7-1
12) Missouri 7-1
11) Penn St 7-1

As expected the CFP rankings are always much harder on the G5 teams than the AP. Tulane officially the front runner for the NY6 spot.

If Air Force goes undefeated, it will be really, really hard to keep them out.

Maybe if Fresno also wins out and you get a 12-0 vs 11-1 CCG. Undefeated sounds great but if you gave Tulane the same cupcake non-conference schedule they’d be undefeated rn as well.

Sure, call Army and Navy cupcakes (this year they are, but AF has very limited OOC schedule flexibility, and the committee shouldn't hold that against them.

I wasn’t even calling Army and Navy cupcakes. Though it’s certainly not a great year for them. They also played Robert Morris (FCS) and SHSU who’s transitioning from FCS and likely the worst team in FBS. That’s easily one of the weakest non-conference schedules in the country and the committee absolutely should hold it against them as they would if it were any other school.

(11-01-2023 09:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-01-2023 08:03 AM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 07:36 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 06:16 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 06:13 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  As expected the CFP rankings are always much harder on the G5 teams than the AP. Tulane officially the front runner for the NY6 spot.

If Air Force goes undefeated, it will be really, really hard to keep them out.

Tulane ahead of Air Force is a real head-scratcher. I'm not aware of any ranking system, human or computer, with Tulane ahead. They just haven't been as good, and in a significantly weaker conference.

Oh well.

This is a big problem for Air Force that the committee put them behind Tulane in spite of being undefeated. I see your point, but both of them only play one team with a winning record to finish the season. Not sure what Air Force is going to be able to do to jump them.

Seems like the CFP might be just disregarding the Tulane loss to Ole Miss, and evaluating the two teams as if that game doesn't exist.

If so, Tulane might indeed be slightly better than AFA. Of course, no other ranking system does that, nor should the CFP IMO.

Tulane got a 2.3 rating, 4.17 million audience for the USC-Tulane Cotton Bowl game last year. That was 11th among postseason games, less than half of any of the other NY6 games, which were #1-#6. #7 was Army-Navy with 6.94 million. #8 was the Gator Bowl ND-USCe, #9 Orlando Bowl OU-FSU, #10 Alamo Bowl UT-UW.
Now Air Force-Baylor in the Armed Forces Bowl was lower at less than 2 million and the bottom third of bowls, but it wasn't a NY6 game and it wasn't against USCw.

(11-01-2023 06:38 AM)Crayton Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 08:13 PM)bullet Wrote:  I've always felt this was one week too early. There are a lot key games this weekend that will tell about a number of teams.

Same. But it brings in ratings. They could probably even do just 3 weeks.

Just as preseason rankings are an opportunity to express unfounded bias, I feel like the first CFP rankings are a place where the committee makes statements (like Tulane > Air Force) for the purpose of making statements. Over the next few weeks they’ll have the opportunity to adjust to the actual performance of the teams (not saying Tulane > Air Force is wrong, just that by placing them adjacent and barely ‘in’ the rankings they are making a statement).

Of course. But even though they start from scratch each week, it still introduces some bias into the system. People can't forget how they voted teams the previous week.

(11-01-2023 09:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-01-2023 08:03 AM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 07:36 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 06:16 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 06:13 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  As expected the CFP rankings are always much harder on the G5 teams than the AP. Tulane officially the front runner for the NY6 spot.

If Air Force goes undefeated, it will be really, really hard to keep them out.

Tulane ahead of Air Force is a real head-scratcher. I'm not aware of any ranking system, human or computer, with Tulane ahead. They just haven't been as good, and in a significantly weaker conference.

Oh well.

This is a big problem for Air Force that the committee put them behind Tulane in spite of being undefeated. I see your point, but both of them only play one team with a winning record to finish the season. Not sure what Air Force is going to be able to do to jump them.

Seems like the CFP might be just disregarding the Tulane loss to Ole Miss, and evaluating the two teams as if that game doesn't exist.

If so, Tulane might indeed be slightly better than AFA. Of course, no other ranking system does that, nor should the CFP IMO.

Lets just look at how MC compares their respective resumes.

Tulane: Wins #46 @Memphis, #69 USA, #93 @Rice, #107 UAB, #109 UNT, #128 @USM, Nicholls (FCS)
Losses: #12 Ole Miss
Remaining schedule: #123 @ECU, #112 Tulsa, #96 @FAU, #72 UTSA
Projected CCG Opponent: #40 SMU

Air Force: Wins #62 Wyoming, #78 @SJSU, #89 USU, #102 @Navy, #103 @CSU, #106 SDSU, #130 @SHSU, Robert Morris (FCS)
Losses: None
Remaining Schedule: #128 Army, #129 @Hawaii, #59 UNLV, #65 @Boise
Projected CCG Opponent: #36 Fresno

Honestly the schedules to this point have been pretty similar. Both teams only have three wins against teams in the top 100. Both teams played one FCS opponent. Tulane jas the best win, @Memphis but the main difference between the two schedules is that instead of playing Ole Miss or another comparable high level opponent, AF cleaned up against another sub-100 opponent. Winning matters but does anybody think Tulane wouldn't be 8-0 if they swapped the Ole Miss game for CSU or SDSU? Or that AF would still be 8-0 if they played Ole Miss instead of a team like Navy?

(11-01-2023 09:17 AM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  9) Oklahoma 7-1
8) Alabama 7-1
7) Texas 7-1
6) Oregon 7-1
5) Washington 8-0
4) Florida St 8-0
3) Michigan 8-0
2) Georgia 8-0
1) Ohio St 8-0

Here is the cutoff point for making the CFP.

Michigan and O$U play each other.
Oregon and Washington rematch winner will get in.
Georgia and Alabama will play each other.
OU-Texas CCG winner gets in if Florida St. loses a game.

Everybody else can start making their holiday season bowl game plans.

#10 Ole Miss could win out and end up in the playoffs with an Alabama stumble.
#11 Penn St. could win out and end up in the playoffs with an Ohio St. stumble.
#12 Missouri could theoretically win out and end up in the playoffs, maybe without any help.
#13 Louisville could theoretically win out and end up in the playoffs with only a little help from upsets in the Pac 12 and/or Big 12.

(11-01-2023 11:48 AM)CAJUNNATION Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 07:38 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 06:33 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  CFP clearly values AAC more than MWC and Sunbelt.

Happy the Big 12 has 4 ranked teams

I would agree, which is baffling, as the SB and especially MW have been considerably better than the AAC this year.

Tulane is still getting perception points off their run from last year. If AFA wins out, they will pass Tulane by in the stadings eventually.

The school that is getting hosed is James Madison.

They have 5 one score games against a weak schedule. They are only getting ranked in the human polls because they have several times barely avoided a loss.
Plus, as they are a transition team, they may not even be eligible for the CFP rankings. They aren't for bowls.

(11-01-2023 12:08 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  

(11-01-2023 09:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Seems like the CFP might be just disregarding the Tulane loss to Ole Miss, and evaluating the two teams as if that game doesn't exist.

If so, Tulane might indeed be slightly better than AFA. Of course, no other ranking system does that, nor should the CFP IMO.

Part of the explanation for "ignoring" the Ole Miss loss is that:
(a) Air Force hasn't played a top 20 team; and
(b) Tulane's loss to Ole Miss was with their starting QB in street clothes; and the backup kept it close for 54 minutes (20-17) before turning it over on downs, fumbling it (returned for TD) and turning it over downs again.


The more interesting question is where would Tulane be ranked in the CFP if they were undefeated with a win over Ole Miss?

If the committee "forgives" a loss with a backup QB to put Tulane ahead of Air Force; but they're really just dumping Tulane and Air. Force at the bottom because they're G5 and not P5.

So they'll say "Tulane hasn't played anyone." but then rank a two-loss USC team with a WORSE SOS ahead of Tulane:

Michigan SOS is .5536 (31-25), #65 in FBS
Oregon SOS is .5536 (31-25), #65 in FBS
Louisville SOS is .5439 (31-26), #69 in FBS
Tulane SOS is .5273 (29-26), #76 in FBS
USC SOS is .5077 (33-32), #87 in FBS
Georgia SOS is .4912 (28-29), #98 in FBS


They just cherry pick to justify putting teams where they want them.

Well they do. Its a horrible way to rank teams and worse than the human polls. I've been very disappointed. The human polls don't have that groupthink that comes from sitting in a room together. There is some degree of independent thought even though they all watch ESPN.

Tulane might have 8-3 UTSA and 10-2 SMU to close out. If they run the table, they’ll have a few more decent wins themselves.

It’s all too early - somebody’s going to choke and we’ll get the usual chaos.

(11-01-2023 12:08 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  

(11-01-2023 09:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Seems like the CFP might be just disregarding the Tulane loss to Ole Miss, and evaluating the two teams as if that game doesn't exist.

If so, Tulane might indeed be slightly better than AFA. Of course, no other ranking system does that, nor should the CFP IMO.

Part of the explanation for "ignoring" the Ole Miss loss is that:
(a) Air Force hasn't played a top 20 team; and
(b) Tulane's loss to Ole Miss was with their starting QB in street clothes; and the backup kept it close for 54 minutes (20-17) before turning it over on downs, fumbling it (returned for TD) and turning it over downs again.


The more interesting question is where would Tulane be ranked in the CFP if they were undefeated with a win over Ole Miss?

If the committee "forgives" a loss with a backup QB to put Tulane ahead of Air Force; but they're really just dumping Tulane and Air. Force at the bottom because they're G5 and not P5.

So they'll say "Tulane hasn't played anyone." but then rank a two-loss USC team with a WORSE SOS ahead of Tulane:

Michigan SOS is .5536 (31-25), #65 in FBS
Oregon SOS is .5536 (31-25), #65 in FBS
Louisville SOS is .5439 (31-26), #69 in FBS
Tulane SOS is .5273 (29-26), #76 in FBS
USC SOS is .5077 (33-32), #87 in FBS
Georgia SOS is .4912 (28-29), #98 in FBS


They just cherry pick to justify putting teams where they want them.

FWIW, I like SOS ratings done by computers like Sagarin, as they typically take a deeper dive. For example, if Team X plays 12-0 Georgia and Team Y plays 12-0 James Madison, IIRC in the NCAA SOS ratings Team X and Team Y would have equal SOS, because both played a 12-0 team. But we know Georgia plays a tougher schedule than James Madison, so playing Georgia should be a tougher SOS thing than playing James Madison.

In this case, Sagarin has Tulane's SOS at #96, while USC's is #46.