johnbragg
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RE: 2023 12 team playoff, using this weeks AP rankings and next year's conferences
(11-10-2023 01:08 PM)UofMstateU Wrote: (11-10-2023 10:23 AM)johnbragg Wrote: (11-10-2023 08:56 AM)UofMstateU Wrote: (10-30-2023 01:05 AM)BruceMcF Wrote: (10-29-2023 01:48 PM)johnbragg Wrote: ... Others will disagree, but I'm very skeptical that the SEC and Big Ten will tolerate a situation where Air Force, Oregon State and Tulane are in the playoff while #10 Ole Miss or #9 Penn STate or #11 Oklahoma or #12 Notre Dame are in the Citrus Bowl or whatever. ...
Except the 2024 Big12 champ, after winning the Big12 championship game, is not going to be ranked below an Air Force or other MWC team, even if they are undefeated after winning the MWC championship game.
If need be, that final "data point" will be what moves the fourth QF hosting sport to the fourth best P4 champion - by resume if it needs to be by resume, by eye test, if it needs to be by eye test.
And, yes, if they need to stick to 6+6 to get the contracts signed for 24/25 + 25/26, they would rather have one of the PAC2 Ronin Samurai in there than have two Go5 champions take the spots.
The PAC 2 wont qualify because their conference is not in compliance. So it would be 2 G5's. (Or St and Wash St could only qualify for an at-large. )
The 6+6 format is currently in stone for the next 2 years. Aresco has made it known that if they would like to go to a 5+7 format for those two years, the 5+7 format must be set in stone going forward.
That's probably true, but we don't know that yet.
Until we get some kind of decision out of the powers-that-be, I'm treating "does the PAC 2 count as a conference?" and "5 champ's and 7 at large's or 6-6" as Schrodinger's Cat questions, listing all possible outcomes.
Which is why we keep having a couple of possibilities for the #11 spot and two or three options for the #12 spot, depending on what the rules end up being.
That also covers the possibility, low percentage chance for 2024 but more likely in 2026, that Oregon State (or Washington State) is your MWC (or PAC-14, or PAC-??) representative.
We actually do, but they *may* change that.
AQ's for the playoffs are similar to the NY6 access bowl, in that they *only* go to conference CCG champions. (ie P5's were NOT automatically assigned an AQ)
You cant put forth a CCG champion if a conference is not in compliance with a minimum number of teams. They will have two years to get back in compliance, but until they do, they have no CCG champion to put forth.
So unless they waiver them from that, it wont happen. They could still snag an at-large, but not an AQ.
I don't think we do know any of that. We haven't seen the exact contract langauge. We have no idea, really, whether the PAC-2 qualifies as a "conference" in the CFP for the next year or two, whether there are separate language for voting rights, for championship qualification and for money.
We've confirmed now that the P5 money is per school, but now there's ambiguity about SMU apparently.
We don't know if the PAC-2 will keep their board seat on the CFP.
We don't know if the OSU-WSU winner will qualify as a "champion" for the 6+6 or 5+7 structure for the next two years.
And right now, 6+6 is the rule for the next two years, but that's highly likely to change given the constellation of forces -- the power conferences don't want 2 G5 bids, and the G5 very much wants assurances of playoff access in the future.
Quote:AQ's for the playoffs are similar to the NY6 access bowl, in that they *only* go to conference CCG champions. (ie P5's were NOT automatically assigned an AQ)
Do we have a source on language about CCGs? I thought it was just conference champions. It hasn't come up yet, since everyone plays a CCG now. But I don't rememeber what the new rule language is to have a CCG, it adds up to "just go ahead, whatever" but there's actual language and I doubt that 2 schools meet it. If there's anything in the CFP 6+6 language about a CCG, that cuts against WSU - OSU. Otherwise, there's an argument that if you're a conference when it's time to vote, and a conference when the money is being given out, you're a conference when it's time to rank "conference champions."
Of course, there's also an argument that 2 schools just aren't a conference so go sit in the corner and cry about it. Depends on the exact contract language, which we haven't seen and which journalists haven't really uncovered. (Not blaming them, they've got more audience-friendly stories to chase)
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2023 12 team playoff, using this weeks AP rankings and next year's conferences
