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2023 12 team playoff, using this weeks AP rankings and next year's conferences
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #21
RE: 2023 12 team playoff, using this weeks AP rankings and next year's conferences
(11-10-2023 01:44 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  The further we go into the season, the less likely that we'd be to have the same top ranked Power conference teams, as many of them will play each other next year. Still, this is a fun thought exercise.

Very true. I suppose you can use something like FPI to scrub the records out.

PEACH 1. Ohio State (9 Texas @ 8 Georgia)
ORANGE 2. Alabama (10 Oklahoma @ 7 Penn State)
COTTON 3. FSU (18 Oregon St @ 6 Oregon)
FIESTA 4. Kansas State (NR Troy @ 5 Michigan)

But that doesn’t look informative either. Best to use 6+6 and current conferences if looking at 2023.
11-10-2023 03:16 PM
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johnbragg Offline
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Post: #22
RE: 2023 12 team playoff, using this weeks AP rankings and next year's conferences
(11-10-2023 01:44 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  The further we go into the season, the less likely that we'd be to have the same top ranked Power conference teams, as many of them will play each other next year. Still, this is a fun thought exercise.

Yeah, but this is the data we have. I'm less interested in what the top looks like (shocker, we have the Big Ten and SEC reps #1 and #2, and ACC rep Florida State is top 5 and in the quarterfinals, who woulda thunk it?.

I don't think anyone's suprised at the at-larges -- Michigan, Washington ORegon Texas, Alabama Ole Miss and maybe Penn State. Big Ten Big Ten Big Ten SEC SEC SEC Big Ten. (Louisville knocking on the door is a little surprising.)

More interesting, but of course less reliable, is Oklahoma State snagging a quarterfinal spot at #15. Would they be ranked higher if they had been on top of the Big 12 standings all year? On the other hand, in the future they don't get the bump from beating Oklahoma.

Oregon State at #12 is an interesting wrinkle -- a few spots short of an at-large, a shoo-in if they count as a conference champ.

And I doubt anyone is surprised at the G5 representative ranked #24 or the 6th champ being unranked in early November.
(This post was last modified: 11-10-2023 03:55 PM by johnbragg.)
11-10-2023 03:53 PM
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YNot Offline
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Post: #23
RE: 2023 12 team playoff, using this weeks AP rankings and next year's conferences
I still question how long the Big Ten and SEC will resist securing themselves more CFP guarantees. The 12-team CFP for 2024 & 25 gives them each ONE (basically) guaranteed NY quarterfinal bowl game bid...

Whereas, Rose Bowl as the Big Ten CCG and Sugar Bowl as the SEC CCG gives them each TWO (certain) guaranteed NY bowl game bids and each one guaranteed spot in the CFP semifinals:

ROSE - Big Ten championship
(1. Ohio State v. 7. Penn State in Indianapolis) v. (3. Michigan v. 6. Oregon in Las Vegas)

SUGAR - SEC championship
(2. Alabama v. 10. Oklahoma in Atlanta) v. (8. Georgia v. 9. Texas in Arlington)

ORANGE/PEACH ACC v. G5
(3. FSU v. 11. Louisville in Charlotte) v. (Troy v. Coastal Carolina OR Tulane v. SMU)

COTTON/FIESTA B12 v. G5
(4. Kansas State v. 15. Oklahoma State in Arlington) v. (12. Oregon State v. Fresno State)
(This post was last modified: 11-10-2023 06:05 PM by YNot.)
11-10-2023 05:54 PM
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Fresno Fanatic Offline
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Post: #24
RE: 2023 12 team playoff, using this weeks AP rankings and next year's conferences
I thought there was a rule where a conference can have a ccg only if they have 10 or more teams.

Also, playoff conference champion spots are for conference champions that have a ccg only.

WaSU and OSU may still be legally considered a power 5 conference for 2 more seasons. And they’ll get their 20% P5 share of the cfp monies. But I don’t think that 2 year grace period applies to ccg and playoff autobid rules, does it?
(This post was last modified: 11-10-2023 05:56 PM by Fresno Fanatic.)
11-10-2023 05:55 PM
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johnbragg Offline
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Post: #25
RE: 2023 12 team playoff, using this weeks AP rankings and next year's conferences
(11-10-2023 05:55 PM)Fresno Fanatic Wrote:  I thought there was a rule where a conference can have a ccg only if they have 10 or more teams.

That could be, seems familiar. We haven't pored over that rule, because it added up to "fine, everybody gets a CCG" but that might no longer apply.

Quote:Also, playoff conference champion spots are for conference champions that have a ccg only.

THAT, I don't remember at all. There's nothing about requiring a CCG in the original proposal. https://collegefootballplayoff.com/news/...posal.aspx

Quote:WaSU and OSU may still be legally considered a power 5 conference for 2 more seasons. And they’ll get their 20% P5 share of the cfp monies. But I don’t think that 2 year grace period applies to ccg and playoff autobid rules, does it?

Nobody knows what the exact CFP rules are, but the commissioners just voted unanimously to require 8 teams to qualify as a conference for CFP purposes. (The presidents would have to approve that, including WSU president Shulz.)
11-10-2023 06:40 PM
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johnbragg Offline
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Post: #26
RE: 2023 12 team playoff, using this weeks AP rankings and next year's conferences


We have some clarity. It's possible that the presidents override the commissioners, but I'm calling it for 5-7 and no PAC-2 champ.

1. Ohio State. Big Ten rep
2. Georgia. SEC rep
3. FSU #4. ACC rep
4. Oklahoma State #15. Big 12 rep

5. Michigan (#3)
6. Washington (#5)
7. Oregon (#6)
8. Texas (#7)

9. Alabama (#8)
10. Ole Miss (#9)
11. Penn State (#10, 7th at-large)
12. Tulane (#23, 5th champ)
(This post was last modified: 11-10-2023 06:45 PM by johnbragg.)
11-10-2023 06:43 PM
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johnbragg Offline
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Post: #27
RE: 2023 12 team playoff, using this weeks AP rankings and next year's conferences
(11-10-2023 06:43 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  (Last week's rankings, Dellinger tweet resolving the Pac-2 and 5-7 questions)

Some movement this week, some shuffling.

1. Georgia. SEC rep
2. Ohio State. Big Ten rep

3. FSU #4. ACC rep
4. Arizona #17. Big 12 rep

5. Michigan (#3)
6. Washington (#5)
7. Oregon (#6)
8. Texas (#7)

9. Alabama (#8)
10. Missouri (#9)
11. Louisville (#10, 7th at-large)
12. Tulane (#24, 5th champ)


In an attempt to spice the thread up, and because I came across the twitter account in the last few days, I'm going to start also using the BCS Simulator rankings.
I don't *think* they'll dump the committee and go back to a formula, but I'd prefer it. Let the committee decide matchups, decide who goes to what bowl, make a stab at avoiding / delaying rematches, but leave the big decisions (who gets a bye, who gets in) to the magic black box.



1. Georgia (SEC)
2. MIchigan (Big Ten)
3. Florida STate #5 (ACC)
4. James Madison #16 (Sun Belt)

5. Ohio State #3
6. Washington #4
7. Alabama #6
8. Oregon # 7

9. Texas #8
10. Louisville #9
11. Penn State #10
12. Utah #17 (Big 12, 5th champ)
(This post was last modified: 11-15-2023 02:47 PM by johnbragg.)
11-15-2023 02:42 PM
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johnbragg Offline
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Post: #28
RE: 2023 12 team playoff, using this weeks AP rankings and next year's conferences
Simulated BCS rankings are out.

https://twitter.com/BCSKnowHow/status/17...3397595631

Last week:
[quote]
1. Georgia (SEC)
2. Ohio State (Big Ten)
3. Florida STate #5 (ACC)
[b]4. Arizona #17 (Big 12)[/b]

5. Michigan #3
6. Washington #4
7. Oregon #6
8. Texas # 7

9. Alabama #8

10. Louisville #9
11. Penn State #10
12. Tulane #19 (AAC, 5th champ)

Ohio STate and Michigan, Alabama and Texas flip-flop spots. James MAdison drops out, Arizona holds off Utah and climbs into the quarterfinals, while Tulane rises to the last playoff spot.
11-20-2023 04:48 PM
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Sparty Baby 84 Offline
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Post: #29
RE: 2023 12 team playoff, using this weeks AP rankings and next year's conferences
Notre Dame will schedule their way into being a lock for the 12-team playoff every year. The Irish will schedule two hard games, lose them, and win the rest. With Marcus Freeman at head coach they will be irresistible for the selection committee at 10-2 regardless of who those 10 wins are against. Not only that, but the committee will jump them over teams like a 10-2 Louisville who beat them on the field.

I also would venture to say that 9-3 Notre Dame with Marcus Freeman as a head coach will give them at minimum, a 75% chance of making the playoffs regardless of who the nine were and who the three were. That said, the same rule holds true for Ohio State and Michigan as well. If Penn State ever accomplished anything, they might get a similar discount. And, lastly, I don't see Alabama ever missing a 12-team playoff so we might as well start calling it an 11-team playoff plus Alabama.

Teams that will always make a 12-team playoff:

1. Alabama: Will be in the 12-team playoffs for at minimum, the remainder of Saban's head coaching career at Alabama.

2. Georgia: Will be in the 12-team playoffs for at minimum, the remainder of Smart's head coaching career at Georgia.

3. Ohio State: Will be in the 12-team playoffs for at minimum, the remainder of Days' head coaching career at Ohio State.

4. Florida State: As long as they play in the ACC, making the playoffs will never be an issue for them.

5. Notre Dame: All they have to do is keep Marcus Freeman an go 10-2 to guarantee a playoff spot. Same deal at 9-3 and they are probably safe as well.

6. Oregon: Just keep out-recruiting everyone out west and keep Phil Knight's millions flowing through the program. 1-3 losses won't be a big deal because the selection committee will always want at least one west coast team.

7. Michigan: * If * (and a big "if") If they can avoid a bowl ban and continue with Sherrone Moore (Harbaugh is completely gone whenever their next loss is), they will continue to schedule like wimps and make it at 9-3 or anything better.

8: Oklahoma/Texas: Probably not both because the odds of both being great the same year as the other in the SEC (note: they will always experience one loss against the other and 1-2 losses each against UGA/Bama/LSU... note: neither one will ever struggle with Texas A&M who is about to be the Illinois of the SEC for the rest of their lives when these two arrive and get the same immediate power boost in recruiting like A&M got and will soon wear out of) but the committee will always find a way to get Middle America watching the playoffs through these guys.

9. G5 Champ: Boise, Oregon State, Washington State, Fresno State, Sun Belt, Liberty... the NCAA is rather dumb, but antitrust laws are something even they comprehend.

10. Big XII Champ: Most years it will be Utah or TCU. These two both have a rich history of winning mid-major conferences, which is most certainly what the Big XII is now without its two heavyweights making all the conference games nationally relevant. Oklahoma State and Kansas State will outspend them for this spot some years though.

11. SEC Team 4 -- The committee will always consider the SEC to be the strongest conference until another conference can duplicate their awesome run of dominance... which is never going to happen. So, pencil in the fourth best SEC team here every year.

12. Penn State/USC/Iowa/Michigan State (if we get a good coach again)/Clemson

Folks, that's basically it. You're not going to see basketball schools make the 12-team playoff and the committee will not be doing any favors to truly random programs like Virginia, Illinois, Ole Miss, ect. We're basically just going to get the usual suspects and once in a while a little brother on a mission like Michigan State or Penn State.
(This post was last modified: 11-20-2023 06:33 PM by Sparty Baby 84.)
11-20-2023 05:29 PM
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johnbragg Offline
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Post: #30
RE: 2023 12 team playoff, using this weeks AP rankings and next year's conferences
No changes to the bracket from last week based on the committee's rankings.

CFP Committee
1. Georgia. SEC rep
2. Ohio State. Big Ten rep
3. FSU #5. ACC rep
4. Arizona #15. Big 12 rep

5. Michigan (#3)
6. Washington (#4)
7. Oregon (#6)
8. Texas (#7)

9. Alabama (#8)
10. Missouri (#9)
11. Louisville (#10, 7th at-large)
12. Tulane (#24, 5th champ)

BCS formula rankings:
1. Georgia. SEC rep
2. Ohio State. Big Ten rep
3. FSU #5. ACC rep
4. Arizona #17. Big 12 rep

5. Michigan (#3)
6. Washington (#4)
7. Oregon (#6)
8. Texas (#7)

9. Alabama (#8)
10. Louisville (#9)
11. Penn State (#10, 7th at-large)
12. Tulane (#19, 5th champ)

Only difference between the committee this week and the BCS formula is the last at-large. Louisville, Mizzou, Penn State, throw in Oklahoma, Ole Miss, not a lot of separation.
(This post was last modified: 11-21-2023 08:38 PM by johnbragg.)
11-21-2023 08:37 PM
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johnbragg Offline
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Post: #31
RE: 2023 12 team playoff, using this weeks AP rankings and next year's conferences
New rankings, new post.
Michigan beats Ohio State, a few new numbers. Louisville drops.

CFP Committee
1. Georgia. SEC rep
2. Michigan. Big Ten rep
3. FSU #4. ACC rep
4. Arizona #15. Big 12 rep

5. Washington (#3)
6. Oregon (#5)
7. Ohio State (#6)
8. Texas (#7)

9. Alabama (#8)
10. Missouri (#9)
11. Penn State (#10, 7th at-large)
12. Tulane (#22, 5th champ)

BCS formula rankings:
1. Georgia. SEC rep
2. Michigan. Big Ten rep
3. FSU #4. ACC rep
4. Arizona #15. Big 12 rep

5. Washington (#3)
6. Ohio State (#5)
7. Oregon (#6)
8. Texas (#7)

9. Alabama (#8)
10. Penn State (#9)
11. Missouri (#10, 7th at-large)
12. Tulane (#18, 5th champ)

Committee and BCS match almost exactly. Flip flop Oregon and OSU, Penn State and Missouri. Tulane gets a little more respect, but nothing in the bracket changes.

But the BCS standings have the race for the G5 spot somewhat tighter. #19 Liberty is nipping at #18 Tulane's heels, with #22 James Madison and #24 Toledo working out scenarios of CCG upsets.

Committee has Tulane at #22, Liberty at #24.

https://twitter.com/BCSKnowHow/status/17...7310216244
(This post was last modified: 11-28-2023 09:00 PM by johnbragg.)
11-28-2023 08:54 PM
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