IF UT falters, I would be worry about NIU with only one lost (against UT) at this junction. Here is why? If they win in Mt. Pleasant on halloween, then their remaining games are against Ball State and Western at home, very winnable games. Their last game is against Kent at their place.

So I am rooting for the Chips against NIU and not have to rely on UT not losing to[/size] the Chips at their place, with NIU backing into the MAC West title.

BG did give Liberty a game, did better against Michigan than most and their pass defense is ranked high. Lot of jeckle and hyde with that team.

(10-28-2023 07:34 PM)eastisbest Wrote:  BG did give Liberty a game, did better against Michigan than most and their pass defense is ranked high. Lot of jeckle and hyde with that team.

Toledo better worry about every opponent left on their schedule! Their focus needs to be on finishing strong and gaining momentum over the last month of the season. Would love to see compete four quarter games in the remaining games, including MACC and Bowl Game

(10-28-2023 07:53 PM)BDV27 Wrote:  

(10-28-2023 07:34 PM)eastisbest Wrote:  BG did give Liberty a game, did better against Michigan than most and their pass defense is ranked high. Lot of jeckle and hyde with that team.

Toledo better worry about every opponent left on their schedule! Their focus needs to be on finishing strong and gaining momentum over the last month of the season. Would love to see compete four quarter games in the remaining games, including MACC and Bowl Game

Definitely. That Illinois loss is looking worse as the season wears on. How did we not beat them? We finally got a shot at a crappy P5 and blew it. Very disappointing but oh well we have moved on. Buffalo circumstances are going to be TOUGH (based on what I've seen this year).

UT has a 2 game lead on NIU since UT beat them head to head.

Each next opponent.

BG looks to be the best of the rest although Buffalo has obviously improved over the season. Glad we’re past NIU, though.

(10-28-2023 08:46 PM)MidnightBlueGold Wrote:  UT has a 2 game lead on NIU since UT beat them head to head.

Yeah, and I don’t see NIU losing any of their remaining games. Toledo, as we learned last year, is very capable of losing 2 games late in the season against inferior MAC teams.

(10-29-2023 08:44 AM)BDV27 Wrote:  

(10-28-2023 08:46 PM)MidnightBlueGold Wrote:  UT has a 2 game lead on NIU since UT beat them head to head.

Yeah, and I don’t see NIU losing any of their remaining games. Toledo, as we learned last year, is very capable of losing 2 games late in the season against inferior MAC teams.

Here's ESPN and Massey Ratings view on the games remaining for UT and NIU:

UT:
vs Buffalo - 85.2% chance of winning (ESPN), 75% chance of winning (Massey)
vs. EMU - 88.2%, 87%
@ bg - 70.0%, 75%
@ CMU - 79.8, 72%

Massey give UT a 39.4% chance at going 3-1. 26.9% going 4-0. 24.7% going 2-2

NIU:
@ CMU - 62.4% (ESPN), 52% (Massey)
vs. Ball St - 78.2%, 72%
vs. WMU - 69.2%, 57%
@ Kent St - 83.5%, 70%

Massey give NIU a 33.3% chance at going 2-2. 32.5% going 3-1. 13.4% going 4-0.

WMU will beat NIU.

(10-29-2023 09:12 AM)MidnightBlueGold Wrote:  

(10-29-2023 08:44 AM)BDV27 Wrote:  

(10-28-2023 08:46 PM)MidnightBlueGold Wrote:  UT has a 2 game lead on NIU since UT beat them head to head.

Yeah, and I don’t see NIU losing any of their remaining games. Toledo, as we learned last year, is very capable of losing 2 games late in the season against inferior MAC teams.

Here's ESPN and Massey Ratings view on the games remaining for UT and NIU:

UT:
vs Buffalo - 85.2% chance of winning (ESPN), 75% chance of winning (Massey)
vs. EMU - 88.2%, 87%
@ bg - 70.0%, 75%
@ CMU - 79.8, 72%

Massey give UT a 39.4% chance at going 3-1. 26.9% going 4-0. 24.7% going 2-2

NIU:
@ CMU - 62.4% (ESPN), 52% (Massey)
vs. Ball St - 78.2%, 72%
vs. WMU - 69.2%, 57%
@ Kent St - 83.5%, 70%

Massey give NIU a 33.3% chance at going 2-2. 32.5% going 3-1. 13.4% going 4-0.

All the predictors had us WAY favored of nearly everyone but Illinois and I think San Jose. Shouldn't have been any games to worry about. No close ones. Match-ups, injuries, in-game coaching and penalties are just darn hard for a computer to predict.

There wasn't much separation between UT and the MAC teams played. I wouldn't expect much against Buffalo, CMU or BG.

If UT just worries about UT, the games will all turn out the way we would like.

(10-29-2023 11:30 AM)rkt Wrote:  If UT just worries about UT, the games will all turn out the way we would like.

We're fans, we don't have to worry about the games. We get to predict. :D Presumably, if coaches were successful, worrying about UT is all the team does any season, any game. Particularly when conference starts. It doesn't always go as the gamblers odds it.

ESPN has NIU favored heavily in all their games. They have a long lay-off before Kent but... Kent. I'd presume NIU wins 4 if they stay healthy and no other issues.

Buffalo's record is more a reflection of MAC play. They look to have had the hardest pre-conference schedule. Fordham FCS but they look to be a good FCS. They could be tough. Hard to tell don't you think? We also have a rivalry away from home.

Does NIU even have a rival?

I'd still presume a safe 3-1 for us, winning the tie-breaker and going to the MACC.

(10-28-2023 08:05 PM)inductchuck16 Wrote:  

(10-28-2023 07:53 PM)BDV27 Wrote:  

(10-28-2023 07:34 PM)eastisbest Wrote:  BG did give Liberty a game, did better against Michigan than most and their pass defense is ranked high. Lot of jeckle and hyde with that team.

Toledo better worry about every opponent left on their schedule! Their focus needs to be on finishing strong and gaining momentum over the last month of the season. Would love to see compete four quarter games in the remaining games, including MACC and Bowl Game

Definitely. That Illinois loss is looking worse as the season wears on. How did we not beat them? We finally got a shot at a crappy P5 and blew it. Very disappointing but oh well we have moved on. Buffalo circumstances are going to be TOUGH (based on what I've seen this year).

We lost, "I believe," because they are a P5 team and, in the current NCAA environment, we cannot recruit at the caliber that the P5 teams can. The cream rises to the top. The P5 is soaking up the best talent and we are competing for what's left.

People can say we came close, we should have won, we were the better team, whatever. Bottom line, we lost. Same thing with Notre Dame. And Kentucky.

As far as who we should worry about going forward: All of them.

Quote:wor·ry
/ˈwərē/
verb
verb: worry; 3rd person present: worries; past tense: worried; past participle: worried; gerund or present participle: worrying

1.
give way to anxiety or unease; allow one's mind to dwell on difficulty or troubles.

lol, we probably got two or three threads going on here, depending each's definition of "worry."

We don't win any of the games if they give way to anxiety. OP used it as concern about something not under the team's control as that game is done. I use it as which games more than others I would think unpredictable. Others seem to use it as one game at a time caution, something a team makes a mistake if they don't do.

Be happy. Don't worry.

(10-29-2023 11:44 AM)eastisbest Wrote:  

(10-29-2023 11:30 AM)rkt Wrote:  If UT just worries about UT, the games will all turn out the way we would like.

We're fans, we don't have to worry about the games. We get to predict. :D Presumably, if coaches were successful, worrying about UT is all the team does any season, any game. Particularly when conference starts. It doesn't always go as the gamblers odds it.

ESPN has NIU favored heavily in all their games. They have a long lay-off before Kent but... Kent. I'd presume NIU wins 4 if they stay healthy and no other issues.

Buffalo's record is more a reflection of MAC play. They look to have had the hardest pre-conference schedule. Fordham FCS but they look to be a good FCS. They could be tough. Hard to tell don't you think? We also have a rivalry away from home.

Does NIU even have a rival?

I'd still presume a safe 3-1 for us, winning the tie-breaker and going to the MACC.

I wish I was as confident about our chances as you are. CMU almost always beats us even if we're good and they're not. WMU now has a passing attack so it will be tough for our very inconsistent offense to outscore.

Toledo is our rival. I mean, "nonrival". Technically, we have a trophy for our NIU/Ball State game. But it's just a piece of hardware.

(10-29-2023 08:44 AM)BDV27 Wrote:  

(10-28-2023 08:46 PM)MidnightBlueGold Wrote:  UT has a 2 game lead on NIU since UT beat them head to head.

Yeah, and I don’t see NIU losing any of their remaining games. Toledo, as we learned last year, is very capable of losing 2 games late in the season against inferior MAC teams.