(10-30-2023 01:45 PM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  

(10-30-2023 11:56 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(10-30-2023 10:02 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  

(10-30-2023 09:14 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(10-30-2023 08:48 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  This is a conference re-alignment board. It is not specific to a conference or program. My posts are based on the landscape as reality dictates, not some "pie in the sky" idea's that many posters throw out there. You don't have to have an agenda or pull for a specific team to have an opinion on conference re-alignment and, to be honest, so many fans can't see through their biases or "fan interest" to see the forest through the trees.

Though I agree with everything you say, it seems (and I could be wrong) that most, if not almost all, of your posts are about the AAC and are overwhelmingly pro-AAC.

When I see that type approach from a poster who does not offer a team(s) for which he/she cheers, I tend to suspect the poster does, indeed, have an agenda of some sort. Perhaps I am being unfair taking that mindset. And, more specifically, maybe I've misread you. My apologies if so.

As I noted, you clearly seem informed, you are very consistent with your views and you don't attack other posters. What I know of you based on your posts, I respect. What I don't know of you based on your reasons for posting ... I remain a bit puzzled at the least.

I do appreciate the response.

Understood. The topic of this thread was about AAC expansion so I offered my opinions, which I base on how conference-realignment works or tends to work. Money is the only reason the ACC expanded recently. Money is why the AAC would be able to add a member of the A-10, despite what some A-10 fans want to believe.

Too many folks try to make assumptions like "basketball schools need to be in a basketball conference". But what about schools like Wichita State or Gonzaga...or Notre Dame in the ACC? The reason all sports schools have more value is because of football, giving them a leg up in conference re-alignment. But if geography and basketball are right, then plenty of conferences would consider a couple of non FB members. The ACC, for example, would be smart to invite Villanova, Georgetown as well as UConn and those schools would be smart to make that move. The Big 12 could pair up Xavier with Cincinnati and grab Gonzaga to the west. Or Gonzaga and St Mary's.

This is the next step as the numbers continue to increase and the geography gets bigger. Fill in the gaps to reduce expenses and increase quality inventory.

I agree with your general theme.

As a Memphis fan, I would strongly like to see the AAC add VCU, Dayton and Saint Louis. I'm just not sure Aresco can make it happen.

He doesn't have to. He can just wait for the Big East to decide who they want. Then he can approach the member he wants the most. If they don't want to deal, then he goes on to the next member. I did that when I bought a house once, when there was 5 on the same street for sale. I told the first house "this was my offer" and if they didn't want it, I would go on to the house across the street. The first one took it.

George Mason is never getting into the Big East (Georgetown). St Joe's either (Nova). So you have schools that would take Aresco's offer... in big markets, with basketball traditions.

That "this is my offer" approach seemingly would work best in multiples in this specific situation. So, in theory, Aresco could subtly let it be known that he wants (for example) VCU, Dayton and Saint Louis. Any one of the three could be concerned that if it declines while the other two are leaning "yes," Aresco pivots and subtly lets it be known that instead, say, George Mason might be invited (to counter the on-the-fence school). So the school that is uncertain in this case now becomes apprehensive about getting left behind in an A10 that has lost George Mason and two of VCU/Dayton/SLU.

I see your point.

But to consider: There has been no national media entity that has reported the AAC is interested in adding A10 members. I'm not so sure Aresco is interested — regardless of what the Big East may or may not do. And I struggle to see the A10 members that would make the most sense in the AAC (due to geography and histories of having shared previous leagues with current AAC members) being sufficiently interested in switching leagues.

You seem to think various A10 members would be very interested. Maybe you're correct and I'm clueless. I simply don't see the AAC as being particularly attractive related to men's basketball.

It should be pointed out that Aresco himself said there isn't "much of an appetite" for any non football adds. He said this as recently as two weeks ago and I'm assuming he's speaking for the university presidents. He did say adding one additional non football program might be considered, but I don't think there's a willingness to go beyond that right now. Maybe that will change in the future.

(10-30-2023 04:28 PM)BlazintheAtl1 Wrote:  It should be pointed out that Aresco himself said there isn't "much of an appetite" for any non football adds. He said this as recently as two weeks ago and I'm assuming he's speaking for the university presidents. He did say adding one additional non football program might be considered, but I don't think there's a willingness to go beyond that right now. Maybe that will change in the future.

He did, indeed. One reason, among others, I don't foresee the AAC attempting to raid the A10.

Local VCU sources say this rumor is unfounded, nothing going on.

(10-30-2023 11:55 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(10-30-2023 11:06 AM)tf8693 Wrote:  

(10-30-2023 10:02 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  

(10-30-2023 09:14 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(10-30-2023 08:48 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  This is a conference re-alignment board. It is not specific to a conference or program. My posts are based on the landscape as reality dictates, not some "pie in the sky" idea's that many posters throw out there. You don't have to have an agenda or pull for a specific team to have an opinion on conference re-alignment and, to be honest, so many fans can't see through their biases or "fan interest" to see the forest through the trees.

Though I agree with everything you say, it seems (and I could be wrong) that most, if not almost all, of your posts are about the AAC and are overwhelmingly pro-AAC.

When I see that type approach from a poster who does not offer a team(s) for which he/she cheers, I tend to suspect the poster does, indeed, have an agenda of some sort. Perhaps I am being unfair taking that mindset. And, more specifically, maybe I've misread you. My apologies if so.

As I noted, you clearly seem informed, you are very consistent with your views and you don't attack other posters. What I know of you based on your posts, I respect. What I don't know of you based on your reasons for posting ... I remain a bit puzzled at the least.

I do appreciate the response.

Understood. The topic of this thread was about AAC expansion so I offered my opinions, which I base on how conference-realignment works or tends to work. Money is the only reason the ACC expanded recently. Money is why the AAC would be able to add a member of the A-10, despite what some A-10 fans want to believe.

Too many folks try to make assumptions like "basketball schools need to be in a basketball conference". But what about schools like Wichita State or Gonzaga...or Notre Dame in the ACC? The reason all sports schools have more value is because of football, giving them a leg up in conference re-alignment. But if geography and basketball are right, then plenty of conferences would consider a couple of non FB members. The ACC, for example, would be smart to invite Villanova, Georgetown as well as UConn and those schools would be smart to make that move. The Big 12 could pair up Xavier with Cincinnati and grab Gonzaga to the west. Or Gonzaga and St Mary's.

This is the next step as the numbers continue to increase and the geography gets bigger. Fill in the gaps to reduce expenses and increase quality inventory.

Disagree with this, at least for the most part. Hybrid conferences have been tried in the past, and have failed. The pressures of maintaining hybrid membership certainly contributed to the demise of the old Big East. Both CUSA and the Sun Belt abandoned the hybrid format (although it took the Sun Belt longer to do so.) And the AAC certainly wouldn't have a non-FBS member if it hadn't added a football-only member first. FBS and non-FBS schools simply have different priorities within their athletic departments. It is difficult to coexist under these circumstances.

As for non-FBS schools joining power conferences being the next wave, I don't buy it, except possibly for Yormark adding such schools to the Big XII (among conference commissioners, he seems to be more enthralled by basketball's possibilities than the others.) We are being told constantly that the power conferences are rapidly approaching maximum capacity. And football revenue certainly contributes a lot more to a conference's coffers than basketball revenue does. If remaining space in power conferences really is at a premium, that space will be reserved for football-playing members.

As for Notre Dame, that really is a unique situation, with much of it having to do with football, even if Notre Dame remains nominally independent in football.

The dynamic has fully changed (see Stanford to the ACC, Army to the AAC and Gonzaga and the Big 12 in flirtation mode). We're not talking about the hybrid model of the old Big East. Rather, this is about the best remaining brands that are not part of the four all-sports power league structure being potentially interested in aligning with leagues that are "better" all-round than their current conference home.

I agree that the dynamic has changed. I do not agree that the new dynamic elevates basketball success in realignment.

If that were the case, we probably would be hearing rumblings about the P2 negotiating with the likes of Duke, Kansas, Arizona and Syracuse, for example, about joining the P2 without football. North Carolina and Virginia as well, since their football programs have been historically mediocre, particularly when compared against their basketball programs. For that matter, UCLA got a full offer and full media share from the Big Ten notwithstanding that their football program has largely struggled over the past 30 years whereas their basketball program has maintained a greater level of success. Further, if there's a pattern of decoupling basketball from football, you probably would see the P2 doing that with certain of their members who have historically stronger basketball programs combined with relatively weak football programs -- examples being Indiana, Maryland, Kentucky, Purdue and possibly Illinois. Yet that hasn't happened either.

Among power conference commissioners, the fascination with basketball seems largely confined to a single commissioner (Yormark). That, of course, limits the programs he'll pursue. Gonzaga? Sure. UConn? Supposedly, he's made overtures to UConn, but in so doing, he's ignoring the single most attractive feature of the Big XII, from UConn's point of view. That, of course, is football membership. Perhaps it's not tone-deafness on Yormark's part, maybe he has the votes to admit UConn as a basketball/olympic sports member, but not for football. But I don't think the Big XII is getting UConn without football being part of the deal in any event.

Beyond that? Villanova and Georgetown both have brands and markets that might hold interest for the Big XII. Maybe Xavier, although it would be duplicative for the Big XII in only a mid-sized market. Maybe another school with some measure of historical success in a huge market that the Big XII otherwise could not access. That adds St. John's and DePaul potentially to the picture. But that's about it.

Maybe the ACC, given that it was, historically speaking, the first of the basketball-first conferences that also played football. But nobody really knows what the future holds for the ACC other than the fact that they will lose some of their marquee members to the P2. Perhaps the rest of the conference holds together, or maybe not. Does the ACC add non-FBS members if it stays together? Maybe, but I don't see any interest here beyond possibly Georgetown, Villanova, and UConn as a backfill member.

Like I said, I don't see the P2 adding primarily basketball members beyond North Carolina and (maybe) Virginia, unless it succeeds for the Big XII, ACC or both, beyond anyone's wildest imagination.

G5 additions? The AAC has shown a willingness to add non-FBS members on a 1:1 ratio to football-only additions. So the addition of Army portends the possibility of adding either VCU, Dayton or Saint Louis, although certainly not all three. Beyond that, I don't see the AAC adding another football-only member unless it's UConn (there is an argument for that). If they add Air Force and Colorado State, I think those are all-sports adds. Neither is a huge reach beyond their western edge as is, and I don't think you land either school with a football-only offer. A merged Pac/MWC probably could pull in a WCC team or two -- Gonzaga (if it doesn't work out with the Big XII), St. Mary's (otherwise), and possibly one from among LMU or Pepperdine, due to presence in the Los Angeles market. But that's probably it. I don't see any other G5 conference being able to offer enough money to make it worthwhile for a non-FBS school to join. And the Big East likely is due for a raise, so I don't see a G5 conference having enough money to sway a Big East member in any event.

(10-30-2023 04:28 PM)BlazintheAtl1 Wrote:  It should be pointed out that Aresco himself said there isn't "much of an appetite" for any non football adds. He said this as recently as two weeks ago and I'm assuming he's speaking for the university presidents. He did say adding one additional non football program might be considered, but I don't think there's a willingness to go beyond that right now. Maybe that will change in the future.

Absolutely. He doesn't need to add 3 members as some have put out there. What he does want to do is get to 14 non FB so he doesn't have an odd number. Odd numbers don't make sense for tv purposes. Why have a program sitting out when 6 games are going on? Add another school and you could have that other team playing.

The reason to not do it is if ESPN is paying you without it, so you would just be taking money from the rest of the schools to pay that new school. However. Aresco has exit fee money coming in and he can use that to make the conference more competitive as well as also help with travel costs.

(10-30-2023 03:07 PM)e-parade Wrote:  

(10-30-2023 02:58 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(10-30-2023 02:40 PM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  

(10-30-2023 02:01 PM)b2b Wrote:  when does the Big East tv deal expire?

They have two more years on their Fox deal. This year and next.

The A-10 has just this year on their current deal(s). They should be negotiating now.

The Big East has 11 schools which makes no sense for tv purposes because 1 school is always not playing someone. You could have 6 games instead of 5 and someone sitting. They should add 1 member for this next deal.

So who will the Big East add?

It’s too bad Boston University doesn’t have a basketball pulse, because they have the facilities and would be perfect otherwise.

Agganis is pretty nice, and is right next to the green line (the same subway line that serves Fenway) so is easy to get to.

But I don't think I've ever seen a basketball game there...or anything where the surface wasn't ice (seen both hockey and figure skating, though).

Looks pretty nice.

(10-31-2023 09:25 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  

(10-30-2023 04:28 PM)BlazintheAtl1 Wrote:  It should be pointed out that Aresco himself said there isn't "much of an appetite" for any non football adds. He said this as recently as two weeks ago and I'm assuming he's speaking for the university presidents. He did say adding one additional non football program might be considered, but I don't think there's a willingness to go beyond that right now. Maybe that will change in the future.

Absolutely. He doesn't need to add 3 members as some have put out there. What he does want to do is get to 14 non FB so he doesn't have an odd number. Odd numbers don't make sense for tv purposes. Why have a program sitting out when 6 games are going on? Add another school and you could have that other team playing.

The reason to not do it is if ESPN is paying you without it, so you would just be taking money from the rest of the schools to pay that new school. However. Aresco has exit fee money coming in and he can use that to make the conference more competitive as well as also help with travel costs.

Great points here. Although, I think we will see a #14 that ESPN is willing to pay for.

A10 and AAC are fighting over a dwindling number of non P5/Big East auto bids. Cripple the A10 and claim your territory

Tired of wasting my breath on this. No chance VCU takes an invite to the AAC. The raise would be marginal and easily blown on travel, the basketball in the AAC is worse and played in less desirable markets. A10 schools consistently outspend AAC schools in basketball. There's not one good reason for any A10 school to make this move, aside from UMass.

(10-31-2023 10:13 AM)thecoffeecake Wrote:  Tired of wasting my breath on this. No chance VCU takes an invite to the AAC. The raise would be marginal and easily blown on travel, the basketball in the AAC is worse and played in less desirable markets. A10 schools consistently outspend AAC schools in basketball. There's not one good reason for any A10 school to make this move, aside from UMass.

Think seen on VCUramnation that the average A10 spend is 3.8M ours is 4.5M and the AAC is 4.3 So your statement on spend does not seem correct. May go back and look for the post. The elephant in the room is the next Big East media contract and if they will be pushed to add new members.

(10-31-2023 10:13 AM)thecoffeecake Wrote:  Tired of wasting my breath on this. No chance VCU takes an invite to the AAC. The raise would be marginal and easily blown on travel, the basketball in the AAC is worse and played in less desirable markets. A10 schools consistently outspend AAC schools in basketball. There's not one good reason for any A10 school to make this move, aside from UMass.

And if the AAC did go and get UMASS (which they would jump in a minute), then you have already taken away from the A-10.

The A-10 is what it is, its not getting better...it added everything it could from the CAA that had value. Its revenue is paltry. I think many programs are going to question whether its a sinking ship. They would all leave for the Big East.

Meanwhile FAU sits in the "preseason" Top 10.

(10-31-2023 11:20 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  The A-10 is what it is, its not getting better...it added everything it could from the CAA that had value. Its revenue is paltry. I think many programs are going to question whether its a sinking ship. They would all leave for the Big East.

It will be interesting to see if ESPN keeps up their end of the A10 TV deal after this year or if they push ESPN+ heavy coverage like they do other mid majors.

(10-31-2023 11:32 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(10-31-2023 11:20 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  The A-10 is what it is, its not getting better...it added everything it could from the CAA that had value. Its revenue is paltry. I think many programs are going to question whether its a sinking ship. They would all leave for the Big East.

It will be interesting to see if ESPN keeps up their end of the A10 TV deal after this year or if they push ESPN+ heavy coverage like they do other mid majors.

Uh... it already IS ESPN+ heavy coverage. ESPN basically back-burned the A-10 like 20 years ago. The reason ESPN came back to the A-10 was because of ESPN+

And that's really the "misleading" part of the A-10 TV revenue situation... The A-10 doesn't have "A Media Contract." They have FOUR.

They have the NBC deal for the bulk of games (now USA, formerly NBCSN).
They have a CBS deal for CBSSN and the A-10 Final on CBS.
They have an ESPN deal for TV (Friday nights).
And they have an ESPN+ deal which was signed separate from the TV deal.

It will definitely be interesting to see what the next media deal for the league looks like.


An aspect of "AAC/MAC can take A-10 teams" that gets overlooked frequently is that while the AAC and MAC have much higher dollar amounts, the football money just isn't available to the A-10 members besides UMass.

VCU would jump ship for $7m from the AAC, but they're not gonna GET the full $7m from the AAC without a football program. They're gonna get $1.5m or so.

Wichita State jumped ship from the MVC because of the money and NCAA access. But the MVC was a true mid-major, they got better NCAA access in the AAC. The access to the NCAA Tournament in the A-10 vs American is roughly the same.

And the other aspect of doing the math is the NCAA unit share the AAC does. Does anyone KNOW the breakdown for the American?

The A-10 is that you get to keep 75% of what you earn. If the AAC is "all for one, one for all" like the P5 is...

VCU makes NCAA Round of 32 as AAC team: $1.5m media, 0.125 NCAA shares ($225k ish) = $1.75m.

VCU makes NCAA Round of 32 as A-10 team: $0.8 media, 1.5 NCAA shares ($2.7m ish), = $3.5m (plus .0167 shares for each other A-10 school's units).

(10-31-2023 09:09 AM)tf8693 Wrote:  

(10-30-2023 11:55 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(10-30-2023 11:06 AM)tf8693 Wrote:  

(10-30-2023 10:02 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  

(10-30-2023 09:14 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Though I agree with everything you say, it seems (and I could be wrong) that most, if not almost all, of your posts are about the AAC and are overwhelmingly pro-AAC.

When I see that type approach from a poster who does not offer a team(s) for which he/she cheers, I tend to suspect the poster does, indeed, have an agenda of some sort. Perhaps I am being unfair taking that mindset. And, more specifically, maybe I've misread you. My apologies if so.

As I noted, you clearly seem informed, you are very consistent with your views and you don't attack other posters. What I know of you based on your posts, I respect. What I don't know of you based on your reasons for posting ... I remain a bit puzzled at the least.

I do appreciate the response.

Understood. The topic of this thread was about AAC expansion so I offered my opinions, which I base on how conference-realignment works or tends to work. Money is the only reason the ACC expanded recently. Money is why the AAC would be able to add a member of the A-10, despite what some A-10 fans want to believe.

Too many folks try to make assumptions like "basketball schools need to be in a basketball conference". But what about schools like Wichita State or Gonzaga...or Notre Dame in the ACC? The reason all sports schools have more value is because of football, giving them a leg up in conference re-alignment. But if geography and basketball are right, then plenty of conferences would consider a couple of non FB members. The ACC, for example, would be smart to invite Villanova, Georgetown as well as UConn and those schools would be smart to make that move. The Big 12 could pair up Xavier with Cincinnati and grab Gonzaga to the west. Or Gonzaga and St Mary's.

This is the next step as the numbers continue to increase and the geography gets bigger. Fill in the gaps to reduce expenses and increase quality inventory.

Disagree with this, at least for the most part. Hybrid conferences have been tried in the past, and have failed. The pressures of maintaining hybrid membership certainly contributed to the demise of the old Big East. Both CUSA and the Sun Belt abandoned the hybrid format (although it took the Sun Belt longer to do so.) And the AAC certainly wouldn't have a non-FBS member if it hadn't added a football-only member first. FBS and non-FBS schools simply have different priorities within their athletic departments. It is difficult to coexist under these circumstances.

As for non-FBS schools joining power conferences being the next wave, I don't buy it, except possibly for Yormark adding such schools to the Big XII (among conference commissioners, he seems to be more enthralled by basketball's possibilities than the others.) We are being told constantly that the power conferences are rapidly approaching maximum capacity. And football revenue certainly contributes a lot more to a conference's coffers than basketball revenue does. If remaining space in power conferences really is at a premium, that space will be reserved for football-playing members.

As for Notre Dame, that really is a unique situation, with much of it having to do with football, even if Notre Dame remains nominally independent in football.

The dynamic has fully changed (see Stanford to the ACC, Army to the AAC and Gonzaga and the Big 12 in flirtation mode). We're not talking about the hybrid model of the old Big East. Rather, this is about the best remaining brands that are not part of the four all-sports power league structure being potentially interested in aligning with leagues that are "better" all-round than their current conference home.

I agree that the dynamic has changed. I do not agree that the new dynamic elevates basketball success in realignment.

If that were the case, we probably would be hearing rumblings about the P2 negotiating with the likes of Duke, Kansas, Arizona and Syracuse, for example, about joining the P2 without football. North Carolina and Virginia as well, since their football programs have been historically mediocre, particularly when compared against their basketball programs. For that matter, UCLA got a full offer and full media share from the Big Ten notwithstanding that their football program has largely struggled over the past 30 years whereas their basketball program has maintained a greater level of success. Further, if there's a pattern of decoupling basketball from football, you probably would see the P2 doing that with certain of their members who have historically stronger basketball programs combined with relatively weak football programs -- examples being Indiana, Maryland, Kentucky, Purdue and possibly Illinois. Yet that hasn't happened either.

Among power conference commissioners, the fascination with basketball seems largely confined to a single commissioner (Yormark). That, of course, limits the programs he'll pursue. Gonzaga? Sure. UConn? Supposedly, he's made overtures to UConn, but in so doing, he's ignoring the single most attractive feature of the Big XII, from UConn's point of view. That, of course, is football membership. Perhaps it's not tone-deafness on Yormark's part, maybe he has the votes to admit UConn as a basketball/olympic sports member, but not for football. But I don't think the Big XII is getting UConn without football being part of the deal in any event.

Beyond that? Villanova and Georgetown both have brands and markets that might hold interest for the Big XII. Maybe Xavier, although it would be duplicative for the Big XII in only a mid-sized market. Maybe another school with some measure of historical success in a huge market that the Big XII otherwise could not access. That adds St. John's and DePaul potentially to the picture. But that's about it.

Maybe the ACC, given that it was, historically speaking, the first of the basketball-first conferences that also played football. But nobody really knows what the future holds for the ACC other than the fact that they will lose some of their marquee members to the P2. Perhaps the rest of the conference holds together, or maybe not. Does the ACC add non-FBS members if it stays together? Maybe, but I don't see any interest here beyond possibly Georgetown, Villanova, and UConn as a backfill member.

Like I said, I don't see the P2 adding primarily basketball members beyond North Carolina and (maybe) Virginia, unless it succeeds for the Big XII, ACC or both, beyond anyone's wildest imagination.

G5 additions? The AAC has shown a willingness to add non-FBS members on a 1:1 ratio to football-only additions. So the addition of Army portends the possibility of adding either VCU, Dayton or Saint Louis, although certainly not all three. Beyond that, I don't see the AAC adding another football-only member unless it's UConn (there is an argument for that). If they add Air Force and Colorado State, I think those are all-sports adds. Neither is a huge reach beyond their western edge as is, and I don't think you land either school with a football-only offer. A merged Pac/MWC probably could pull in a WCC team or two -- Gonzaga (if it doesn't work out with the Big XII), St. Mary's (otherwise), and possibly one from among LMU or Pepperdine, due to presence in the Los Angeles market. But that's probably it. I don't see any other G5 conference being able to offer enough money to make it worthwhile for a non-FBS school to join. And the Big East likely is due for a raise, so I don't see a G5 conference having enough money to sway a Big East member in any event.

To be clear, I don't foresee any Big East members (other than UConn) ever aligning with either the Big 12 or the ACC. I'm simply saying I would not be shocked if it happened.

In theory, no noteworthy leagues (including the Big East) are safe other the SEC, Big Ten and Ivy.