bill dazzle
Craft beer and urban living enthusiast
Posts: 10,757
Joined: Aug 2016
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I Root For: Vandy/Memphis/DePaul/UNC
Location: Nashville
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RE: Hitmen Hoops Media (Sources): The AAC is 'engaged in serious talks' with VCU
(10-31-2023 09:09 AM)tf8693 Wrote: (10-30-2023 11:55 AM)bill dazzle Wrote: (10-30-2023 11:06 AM)tf8693 Wrote: (10-30-2023 10:02 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote: (10-30-2023 09:14 AM)bill dazzle Wrote: Though I agree with everything you say, it seems (and I could be wrong) that most, if not almost all, of your posts are about the AAC and are overwhelmingly pro-AAC.
When I see that type approach from a poster who does not offer a team(s) for which he/she cheers, I tend to suspect the poster does, indeed, have an agenda of some sort. Perhaps I am being unfair taking that mindset. And, more specifically, maybe I've misread you. My apologies if so.
As I noted, you clearly seem informed, you are very consistent with your views and you don't attack other posters. What I know of you based on your posts, I respect. What I don't know of you based on your reasons for posting ... I remain a bit puzzled at the least.
I do appreciate the response.
Understood. The topic of this thread was about AAC expansion so I offered my opinions, which I base on how conference-realignment works or tends to work. Money is the only reason the ACC expanded recently. Money is why the AAC would be able to add a member of the A-10, despite what some A-10 fans want to believe.
Too many folks try to make assumptions like "basketball schools need to be in a basketball conference". But what about schools like Wichita State or Gonzaga...or Notre Dame in the ACC? The reason all sports schools have more value is because of football, giving them a leg up in conference re-alignment. But if geography and basketball are right, then plenty of conferences would consider a couple of non FB members. The ACC, for example, would be smart to invite Villanova, Georgetown as well as UConn and those schools would be smart to make that move. The Big 12 could pair up Xavier with Cincinnati and grab Gonzaga to the west. Or Gonzaga and St Mary's.
This is the next step as the numbers continue to increase and the geography gets bigger. Fill in the gaps to reduce expenses and increase quality inventory.
Disagree with this, at least for the most part. Hybrid conferences have been tried in the past, and have failed. The pressures of maintaining hybrid membership certainly contributed to the demise of the old Big East. Both CUSA and the Sun Belt abandoned the hybrid format (although it took the Sun Belt longer to do so.) And the AAC certainly wouldn't have a non-FBS member if it hadn't added a football-only member first. FBS and non-FBS schools simply have different priorities within their athletic departments. It is difficult to coexist under these circumstances.
As for non-FBS schools joining power conferences being the next wave, I don't buy it, except possibly for Yormark adding such schools to the Big XII (among conference commissioners, he seems to be more enthralled by basketball's possibilities than the others.) We are being told constantly that the power conferences are rapidly approaching maximum capacity. And football revenue certainly contributes a lot more to a conference's coffers than basketball revenue does. If remaining space in power conferences really is at a premium, that space will be reserved for football-playing members.
As for Notre Dame, that really is a unique situation, with much of it having to do with football, even if Notre Dame remains nominally independent in football.
The dynamic has fully changed (see Stanford to the ACC, Army to the AAC and Gonzaga and the Big 12 in flirtation mode). We're not talking about the hybrid model of the old Big East. Rather, this is about the best remaining brands that are not part of the four all-sports power league structure being potentially interested in aligning with leagues that are "better" all-round than their current conference home.
I agree that the dynamic has changed. I do not agree that the new dynamic elevates basketball success in realignment.
If that were the case, we probably would be hearing rumblings about the P2 negotiating with the likes of Duke, Kansas, Arizona and Syracuse, for example, about joining the P2 without football. North Carolina and Virginia as well, since their football programs have been historically mediocre, particularly when compared against their basketball programs. For that matter, UCLA got a full offer and full media share from the Big Ten notwithstanding that their football program has largely struggled over the past 30 years whereas their basketball program has maintained a greater level of success. Further, if there's a pattern of decoupling basketball from football, you probably would see the P2 doing that with certain of their members who have historically stronger basketball programs combined with relatively weak football programs -- examples being Indiana, Maryland, Kentucky, Purdue and possibly Illinois. Yet that hasn't happened either.
Among power conference commissioners, the fascination with basketball seems largely confined to a single commissioner (Yormark). That, of course, limits the programs he'll pursue. Gonzaga? Sure. UConn? Supposedly, he's made overtures to UConn, but in so doing, he's ignoring the single most attractive feature of the Big XII, from UConn's point of view. That, of course, is football membership. Perhaps it's not tone-deafness on Yormark's part, maybe he has the votes to admit UConn as a basketball/olympic sports member, but not for football. But I don't think the Big XII is getting UConn without football being part of the deal in any event.
Beyond that? Villanova and Georgetown both have brands and markets that might hold interest for the Big XII. Maybe Xavier, although it would be duplicative for the Big XII in only a mid-sized market. Maybe another school with some measure of historical success in a huge market that the Big XII otherwise could not access. That adds St. John's and DePaul potentially to the picture. But that's about it.
Maybe the ACC, given that it was, historically speaking, the first of the basketball-first conferences that also played football. But nobody really knows what the future holds for the ACC other than the fact that they will lose some of their marquee members to the P2. Perhaps the rest of the conference holds together, or maybe not. Does the ACC add non-FBS members if it stays together? Maybe, but I don't see any interest here beyond possibly Georgetown, Villanova, and UConn as a backfill member.
Like I said, I don't see the P2 adding primarily basketball members beyond North Carolina and (maybe) Virginia, unless it succeeds for the Big XII, ACC or both, beyond anyone's wildest imagination.
G5 additions? The AAC has shown a willingness to add non-FBS members on a 1:1 ratio to football-only additions. So the addition of Army portends the possibility of adding either VCU, Dayton or Saint Louis, although certainly not all three. Beyond that, I don't see the AAC adding another football-only member unless it's UConn (there is an argument for that). If they add Air Force and Colorado State, I think those are all-sports adds. Neither is a huge reach beyond their western edge as is, and I don't think you land either school with a football-only offer. A merged Pac/MWC probably could pull in a WCC team or two -- Gonzaga (if it doesn't work out with the Big XII), St. Mary's (otherwise), and possibly one from among LMU or Pepperdine, due to presence in the Los Angeles market. But that's probably it. I don't see any other G5 conference being able to offer enough money to make it worthwhile for a non-FBS school to join. And the Big East likely is due for a raise, so I don't see a G5 conference having enough money to sway a Big East member in any event.
To be clear, I don't foresee any Big East members (other than UConn) ever aligning with either the Big 12 or the ACC. I'm simply saying I would not be shocked if it happened.
In theory, no noteworthy leagues (including the Big East) are safe other the SEC, Big Ten and Ivy.
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