Teams with 1st Loss Week 7:
Oregon
Southern California
Louisville

Teams with 2nd Loss Week 7:
(Jacksonville State)
West Virginia
Memphis
Miami (FL)
UCLA
Washington State
Kansas
Kentucky
Georgia Southern
Maryland
Brigham Young
Wisconsin
Ohio
Marshall
Wyoming

Teams with 1st Win Week 7:
none

Percent of Teams with 1st Loss of Season
Week 0/1: 37.6% (50 of 133)
Week 2: 38.6% (32 of 83)
Week 3: 23.5% (12 of 51)
Week 4: 30.8% (12 of 39)
Week 5: 18.5% (5 of 27)
Week 6: 36.4% (8 of 22)
Week 7: 21.4% (3 of 14)

Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
8: Eight conference champs (all except the MAC and American)
We no longer have three possible undefeated teams from the ACC, reducing our total by 1.

Week 7 Thoughts:
-After the games last week, we only have three possible games between undefeated teams this season. Florida State and North Carolina can play in the ACC Championship. Ohio State and Penn State play this week. The winner of the Ohio State/Penn State game will pray Michigan later who is also still undefeated.

-Washington sits as the last remaining unbeaten in the PAC-12 after beating Oregon in a great game. USC also falls from the unbeaten losing to Notre Dame. Many of the 1-loss PAC-12 teams likely can make the CFP by winning out, but the conference almost certainly needs one of them to finish with 1 loss. That means they need to avoid beating up each other too much (a problem in past years).

-Iowa beat Wisconsin which puts the Hawkeyes in control of the Big Ten west for the moment. Iowa and Wisconsin are tied atop the division, but Iowa has the tie breaker and Wisconsin still plays Ohio State while Iowa already played their biggest Big Ten east team (Penn State). That said, the west looks more open than a week ago. In the east, Michigan is now the favorite to win the national championship by odds I look up. This year has been defined by the biggest three bands more than any year I have seen in some time. That might or might not hold up. As the three start to play the division will likely come down to those games and maybe an upset somewhere. Should the three split and otherwise win out, the tie breaker will be record vs. Big Ten west opponents. So, for the moment, all three should be hoping their Big Ten west opponents win as much as possible.

-A week after beating Notre Dame, Louisville had a surprise loss to Pitt. North Carolina beat Miami (FL) though to stay unbeaten and remain a dark horse CFP team. We will see if both them and Florida State can keep winning. The longer both do, the better the ACC odds are. One loss might or might not get them in this year.

-All the 1-loss Big 12 teams except Texas lost this week. The conference championship is still open, but the only two with any realistic playoff hopes left are the Sooners and Longhorns.

-Georgia and Alabama won and continue to lead their divisions, but both look weaker than in past years. In the east, Tennessee, Missouri, and Florida would all theoretically be tied with a tiebreaker advantage over Georgia if they were to beat the Bulldogs and win out. In the west, only LSU can do the same to Alabama.

NY6 Race:
-Air Force beat Wyoming to stay unbeaten. If Air Force wins out, they are almost certainly in the NY6 bowl. In the American, Tulane won the battle of one loss teams. Tulane is the American's best hope, but if they do win out, I think they are a very strong candidate. I would probably lean to them over anyone except an undefeated Air Force, but we will learn more when the CFP committee starts meeting.

-In the Sun Belt, Georgia Southern and Marshall lost the battles between undefeated/1-loss teams. That leaves just Georgia State and James Madison on these lists. Since James Madison is still in FBS transition, the Sun Belt needs Georgia State to win out to get in the NY6. The problem is they do play LSU. If they manage to beat the tigers and win out, Georgia State would probably get the NY6 spot. If they lose a game though, the Sun Belt odds become long.

-Ohio lost, leaving just Miami and Toledo with 1-loss in the MAC. Those two play this week. The winner will need a lot of help, but is not out of the NY6 race yet. Miami will be helped some if Cincinnati can do something in the Big 12.

-Liberty was off this week and remains the only Conference USA school with a chance. Their schedule this year though is weak enough they need to win convincingly to have a chance in my view.

Week 8 Thoughts:
-We have one game between undefeated teams. We have four other games between undefeated/1-loss teams.

Undefeated Penn State at Undefeated Ohio State: Ohio State has won the last several of these, but the Buckeyes have some issues and Penn State has been playing very well. Ohio State is only a few point home favorite in this. The winner here will instantly see their odds jump to win the Big Ten title and national title. The loser will need to hope for an upset or a three way tie (which would mean rooting hard for their Big Ten west opponents).

1-loss Tennessee at 1-loss Alabama: A year ago, Tennessee won this game and broke a long streak in the rivalry. This year, Alabama would like the revenge. Beyond that, Alabama will put other teams back in the west race with a loss. Tennessee likely has to win this to have a chance in the east.

1-loss Duke at Undefeated Florida State: Duke beat Clemson to start the ACC year. They are big underdogs here, but a win would keep them in the ACC Championship race. It would also greatly lower the ACC's odds of a playoff team.

1-loss Utah at 1-loss USC: The loser here is likely eliminated from the CFP bowl race. From a conference perspective, it is a bigger deal for Utah as they already have one conference loss and might not be able to afford a 2nd. USC meanwhile is trying to shake off the bad Notre Dame loss.

1-loss Toledo vs. 1-loss Miami (OH): The winner will be the last one loss team in the MAC and the only one with any chance at the New Years Six (long shot, but still there).

Middle Tennessee at Undefeated Liberty (Tuesday): Liberty is a two touchdown favorite. To take the NY6 spot, it would help to have this be a huge blowout.

Florida International at winless Sam Houston (Wednesday): Sam Houston is still winless, but has been in a lot of games. They are the favorite at home. Let's see if they can get their first win as a Conference USA school.

Undefeated James Madison at Marshall (Thursday): If the NCAA had approved James Madison's waiver from playing another transition year, this game would be bigger, but, none-the-less, James Madison would love to end this year perfect. They are 3.5 point favorites.

Undefeated Air Force at Navy: These two academies meet with Air Force being the one with the higher stakes. Navy would love to crush Air Force's dreams for a New Years Six bowl.

Minnesota at 1-loss Iowa: A game for a pig trophy (I love Minnesota's trophy games). Iowa is only a small favorite here. They have been winning with defense and very little offense. Should Iowa lose this game, the west is wide open again. The over/under is 32.5 points.

Colorado State at 1-Loss UNLV: UNLV remains with 1-loss in the Mountain West and is still in the NY6 race. They are a little over a touchdown favorite here.

1-loss Ole Miss at Auburn: Ole Miss will need a lot to take the division, but even if they don't a NY6 bowl is possible. This is close to must win for that though.

1-loss Georgia State at Louisiana: Georgia State is a small underdog here. Lose this though and the Sun Belt will have to hope a 2-loss team can take the NY6 spot.

Winless Nevada at San Diego State: Nevada is a two touchdown underdog, but it is a chance for their first win.

Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 2, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 3, Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 1, total: 11
Florida State
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Michigan
Ohio State
Penn State
Air Force
Washington
Georgia
Liberty
(James Madison)

1-Loss Teams: ACC: 2, American: 1, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 1, Conference USA: 0, MAC: 2, Mountain West: 2, PAC-12: 4, SEC: 4, Sun Belt: 1, total: 18
Duke
Tulane
Iowa
Miami (OH)
Toledo
UNLV
Oregon State
Utah
Tennessee
Alabama
Mississippi
Georgia State
Texas
Missouri
Fresno State
Oregon
Southern California
Louisville

Remaining Winless Teams: Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 1, total: 2
(Sam Houston)
Nevada

I didn't realize until reading this thread that UNLV only has 1 loss (Michigan) and is still in the NY6 hunt. That has to be the biggest surprise of the first half.

(10-17-2023 09:51 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  I didn't realize until reading this thread that UNLV only has 1 loss (Michigan) and is still in the NY6 hunt. That has to be the biggest surprise of the first half.

I posted recently that I watched a good bit of the UNLV vs. Vanderbilt game. UNLV is a very solid. I was impressed.

Thanks, as always, to ohio1317 for the update.

Counting the P5 undefeated:

Georgia: Florida (Jacksonville), Missouri, Mississippi, at Tennessee, at Georgia Tech

Michigan: Bye, Purdue, at Penn State, at Maryland, Ohio State

Ohio State: at Wisconsin, at Rutgers, Michigan State, Minnesota, at Michigan

Florida State: at Wake Forest, at Pittsburgh, Miami, North Alabama (Wait, I didn't know FSU joined the SEC? They're playing FCS cupcakes the week before Rivalry Week?), at Florida

Washington: at Stanford, at USC, Utah, at Oregon State, Washington State

Oklahoma: at Kansas, at Oklahoma State, West Virginia, at BYU, TCU

One of Ohio State and Michigan will lose.

Oklahoma has three road games to teams with 5-2 records and barely beat a UCF team that's winless at home not to mention even if they remain undefeated will still have to win the Big 12 Championship game, possibly a rematch vs. Texas.

All of Georgia's games except Georgia Tech has a winning record but only Tennessee is a true road game. Georgia could still have to face Alabama in the SEC Championship Game and I would never count out Saban in a "playoff" game.

Michigan has two of three tough games to end the season and Maryland in the middle is 5-2 but Michigan has won two in a row vs. OSU, PSU looked pathetic vs. OSU, and Maryland lost to Illinois at home, they'll be lucky to beat Michigan.

Washington still has three road games left. USC lost at home to Utah and at Notre Dame so UW should be favored there. Oregon State has just one loss, that's probably the toughest road game left. Utah at home won't be easy. If UW goes undefeated in the regular season, I see them having a rematch vs. Saturday's Oregon/Utah winner and on a neutral field.

Florida State has it pretty easy up to Florida. I don't know what to think of them. They've only lost two, road games to Utah and Kentucky and they beat Tennessee. No one expects them to beat Georgia but the season finale in Gainesville could be trouble for the Seminoles.