(11-19-2023 02:07 AM)Crayton Wrote:  

(11-12-2023 01:18 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Still have 76.0 bowl eligible teams on average. Not sure the spread of that statistic, but >50% JMU/JSU get a bowl spot.

Wow. Jumped up to 78.4 this week. Must have had quite a few 6-loss teams winning. JMU/JSU take that to 80.4, so we are still likely to dip into the top 5-7 APR team or two.

The mean expectation based on ESPN FPI for every conference increased some. This may indicate a motivation factor, that ESPN's model does not account for. A team that was 4-6 had to win if they wanted to go to a bowl. Five and seven and the season is done. All that is left to do is check in your equipment and enter the portal. Injury rehab and what's that other thing? Oh yeah, class. it would not take much, perhaps a 5% bonus for a bowl-motivated team.

The Sun Belt had the biggest jump, with the mean expectation increasing by a bit more than one team. Arkansas State and South Alabama each had about 50% chance of getting the 6th win in their final two game, for a mean expectation of one team. But both won.

A better interpretation would be treat them like flipping two coins. 1/4 of the time you will get two heads, 1/2 of the time one head and one tail, and 1/4 two tails.

Louisiana and Marshall still have a reasonable chance to get a 6th win, despite missing their chance to win a winnable game.

And ODU unexpectedly knocked off Georgia Southern.

The Sun Belt has a chance for 7 teams finishing 6-6.

24 teams are 5-6; and only 12 are 4-7. I sense that is a bit of an anomaly.

With 67 teams eligible and James Madison and Jacksonville State qualifying before any APR team, there is at most room for 13 APR teams.

Any team with a 5-6 record and not in the top 13 APR teams among those who are 5-6 must win. Teams with a better APR, will either get a 6th win or qualify based on APR.

This means Utah State (APR 965), Old Dominion (963), Illinois (962), Marshall (961), Washington State (961), Colorado State (957), Syracuse (955), BYU (954), TCU (952), CMU (952), and Louisiana (952) must win to go to a bowl game. There is no chance to qualify by APR.

Also Arkansas (959), Colorado (959), Houston (955), North Texas (953), Florida International (948), New Mexico (947), Western Michigan (942), and Florida Atlantic (933) will finish out the season this weekend.

So if I'm reading this thread right:
67 are eligible
24 can become eligible
40 are ineligible
2 are transition who could fill empty spots.

(11-19-2023 08:45 PM)bullet Wrote:  So if I'm reading this thread right:
67 are eligible
24 can become eligible
40 are ineligible
2 are transition who fill empty spots.
APR 5-7 fill remaining open slots if any
8 losses or more are eliminated

Modifying the list, 8 losses or more can't go bowling.

(11-19-2023 08:45 PM)bullet Wrote:  So if I'm reading this thread right:
67 are eligible
24 can become eligible
40 are ineligible
2 are transition who could fill empty spots.

Correct.

Unlike earlier weeks, when both teams playing each other could become eligible with a win, none of the remaining 24 are playing each other. So while highly unlikely, all 24 could become eligible this week, taking the total to 91. My guess is 77, which means JMU and Jacksonville State are in, plus a few more APR qualifiers.

(11-19-2023 08:30 PM)jimrtex Wrote:  

(11-19-2023 02:07 AM)Crayton Wrote:  

(11-12-2023 01:18 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Still have 76.0 bowl eligible teams on average. Not sure the spread of that statistic, but >50% JMU/JSU get a bowl spot.

Wow. Jumped up to 78.4 this week. Must have had quite a few 6-loss teams winning. JMU/JSU take that to 80.4, so we are still likely to dip into the top 5-7 APR team or two.

The mean expectation based on ESPN FPI for every conference increased some. This may indicate a motivation factor, that ESPN's model does not account for. A team that was 4-6 had to win if they wanted to go to a bowl. Five and seven and the season is done. All that is left to do is check in your equipment and enter the portal. Injury rehab and what's that other thing? Oh yeah, class. it would not take much, perhaps a 5% bonus for a bowl-motivated team.

The Sun Belt had the biggest jump, with the mean expectation increasing by a bit more than one team. Arkansas State and South Alabama each had about 50% chance of getting the 6th win in their final two game, for a mean expectation of one team. But both won.

A better interpretation would be treat them like flipping two coins. 1/4 of the time you will get two heads, 1/2 of the time one head and one tail, and 1/4 two tails.

Louisiana and Marshall still have a reasonable chance to get a 6th win, despite missing their chance to win a winnable game.

And ODU unexpectedly knocked off Georgia Southern.

The Sun Belt has a chance for 7 teams finishing 6-6.

24 teams are 5-6; and only 12 are 4-7. I sense that is a bit of an anomaly.

I think the motivational factor is at work. IMO these kids want to become bowl eligible and so will give it more effort if that is on the line this week.

Maybe I am wrong, but it often seems like with several weeks to go, various models predict a significant shortfall of eligible teams, but it always seems to tighten up considerably as the end of season approaches.

If I was JMU or JAX, I wouldn't be planning on a bowl just yet. We'll see.

Good update from USA Today https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nc...648714007/

According to USA Today Navy must win Saturday, something the NCAA has not enforced in the past.

Tuesday, Nov. 21


Eastern Michigan (5-6) at Buffalo, ESPN2, 7:30 p.m. ET

Thursday, Nov. 23

Mississippi at Mississippi State (5-6), ESPN, 7:30 p.m. ET

Friday, Nov. 24

Nebraska (5-6) vs. Iowa, CBS, noon ET

TCU (5-6) at Oklahoma, Fox, noon ET

Toledo at Central Michigan (5-6), ESPNU, noon ET

Utah State (5-6) at New Mexico, CBSSN, 3:30 p.m. ET

Saturday, Nov. 25

Houston at Central Florida (5-6), FS1, noon ET

Navy* (5-5) at SMU, ESPN2, noon ET

Northern Illinois (5-6) at Kent State, noon ET


Florida Atlantic at Rice (5-6), 1 p.m. ET

Georgia State at Old Dominion (5-6), 2 p.m. ET

Wake Forest at Syracuse (5-6), CW, 2 p.m. ET

Louisiana-Monroe at Louisiana-Lafayette (5-6), 3 p.m. ET

Arkansas State at Marshall (5-6), 3:30 p.m. ET

Brigham Young (5-6) at Oklahoma State, ABC, 3::30 p.m. ET

Illinois (5-6) at Northwestern, Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET

Virginia Tech (5-6) at Virginia, ACC, 3:30 p.m. ET

Wisconsin at Minnesota (5-6), FS1, 3:30 p.m. ET

Washington State (5-6) at Washington, Fox, 4 p.m. ET

Florida State at Florida (5-6), ESPN, 7 p.m. ET


Charlotte at South Florida (5-6), ESPNU, 7:30 p.m. ET

Clemson at South Carolina (5-6), SEC, 7:30 p.m. ET

California (5-6) at UCLA, ESPN, 10:30 p.m. ET

Colorado State (5-6) at Hawaii, 11 p.m. ET

* Navy will play Army on Dec. 9. That game comes six days after the bowl matchups are set, so they must win Saturday to be included on the bowl schedule.

APR Top Teams as it stands today
Minnesota — 992

Wake Forest (must beat Syracuse to get five wins) — 992

Rice — 987

Mississippi State — 985

Central Florida — 984

South Carolina — 983

Michigan State (must beat Penn State to get five wins) — 982

Ball State (must beat Miami (Ohio) to get five wins) — 980

(11-20-2023 09:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-19-2023 08:30 PM)jimrtex Wrote:  

(11-19-2023 02:07 AM)Crayton Wrote:  

(11-12-2023 01:18 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Still have 76.0 bowl eligible teams on average. Not sure the spread of that statistic, but >50% JMU/JSU get a bowl spot.

Wow. Jumped up to 78.4 this week. Must have had quite a few 6-loss teams winning. JMU/JSU take that to 80.4, so we are still likely to dip into the top 5-7 APR team or two.

The mean expectation based on ESPN FPI for every conference increased some. This may indicate a motivation factor, that ESPN's model does not account for. A team that was 4-6 had to win if they wanted to go to a bowl. Five and seven and the season is done. All that is left to do is check in your equipment and enter the portal. Injury rehab and what's that other thing? Oh yeah, class. it would not take much, perhaps a 5% bonus for a bowl-motivated team.

The Sun Belt had the biggest jump, with the mean expectation increasing by a bit more than one team. Arkansas State and South Alabama each had about 50% chance of getting the 6th win in their final two game, for a mean expectation of one team. But both won.

A better interpretation would be treat them like flipping two coins. 1/4 of the time you will get two heads, 1/2 of the time one head and one tail, and 1/4 two tails.

Louisiana and Marshall still have a reasonable chance to get a 6th win, despite missing their chance to win a winnable game.

And ODU unexpectedly knocked off Georgia Southern.

The Sun Belt has a chance for 7 teams finishing 6-6.

24 teams are 5-6; and only 12 are 4-7. I sense that is a bit of an anomaly.

I think the motivational factor is at work. IMO these kids want to become bowl eligible and so will give it more effort if that is on the line this week.

Maybe I am wrong, but it often seems like with several weeks to go, various models predict a significant shortfall of eligible teams, but it always seems to tighten up considerably as the end of season approaches.

If I was JMU or JAX, I wouldn't be planning on a bowl just yet. We'll see.

12 potentially eligible teams are listed as favorites, and 12 as underdogs.

They are listed here in order of the likelihood (according to point spreads) to win this week. Potential qualifier shown first, then their opponent, and the early point spread.

Favorites:
1. NIU, Kent State -17.5
2. UCF, Houston, -13.5
3. Louisiana, UL Monroe, -12.0
4. Utah State, New Mexico, -8.5
5. Illinois, Northwestern, -5.5
6. Colorado State, Hawaii, -5.5
7. Rice, FAU, -5.0
8. USF, Charlotte, -5.0
9. Syracuse, Wake Forest, -2.5
10.Virginia Tech, Virginia, -2.5
11.Marshall, Arkansas State, -2.5
12.Old Dominion, Georgia State, -2.0

Underdogs:
13. Nebraska, Iowa, +1.0
14. Minnesota, Wisconsin, +2.0
15. Florida, Florida State, +6.5
16. Eastern Michigan, Buffalo, +6.5
17. South Carolina, Clemson, +7.0
18. California, UCLA, +10.0
19. TCU, Oklahoma, +11.5
20. Mississippi St, Ole Miss, +11.5
21. Central Michigan, Toledo, +11.5
22. Washington St, Washington, +16.5
23. BYU, Oklahoma State, +17.5
24. Navy, SMU, +20.0

15 of these teams need to win to reach 82 total and close out JMU, Jax State, and 5-7 teams.

Army and Navy are weird cases. If Navy beats SMU they are clear-cut in, but if they lose they are 5-6.

If the NCAA says their eligibility has to be based on this record, as the Army-Navy game comes after the bowl selection, then presumably 5-6 would put Navy ahead of all the 5-7 teams. Maybe ahead of JMU and JAX too.

Army also has 5 wins and needs to beat Navy to get to 6, but they have two FCS wins. Army would seem to be in a very tough position to get eligible.

No, 5-6 does not go ahead of 5-7 if APR is used. 5 wins is all needed for APR and highest ranked goes first.

If I am understanding what has previously been posted (and assuming that what has been posted is correct) the order of priority to fill unused bowl slots would be:

1. James Madison (transition)
2. Jacksonville State (transition)
3. Minnesota (APR 992)
4. Rice (987)
5. Mississippi State (985)
6. UCF (984)
7. South Carolina (983)
8. Florida (977)

Is this correct?

(11-20-2023 09:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-19-2023 08:30 PM)jimrtex Wrote:  

(11-19-2023 02:07 AM)Crayton Wrote:  

(11-12-2023 01:18 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Still have 76.0 bowl eligible teams on average. Not sure the spread of that statistic, but >50% JMU/JSU get a bowl spot.

Wow. Jumped up to 78.4 this week. Must have had quite a few 6-loss teams winning. JMU/JSU take that to 80.4, so we are still likely to dip into the top 5-7 APR team or two.

The mean expectation based on ESPN FPI for every conference increased some. This may indicate a motivation factor, that ESPN's model does not account for. A team that was 4-6 had to win if they wanted to go to a bowl. Five and seven and the season is done. All that is left to do is check in your equipment and enter the portal. Injury rehab and what's that other thing? Oh yeah, class. it would not take much, perhaps a 5% bonus for a bowl-motivated team.

The Sun Belt had the biggest jump, with the mean expectation increasing by a bit more than one team. Arkansas State and South Alabama each had about 50% chance of getting the 6th win in their final two game, for a mean expectation of one team. But both won.

A better interpretation would be treat them like flipping two coins. 1/4 of the time you will get two heads, 1/2 of the time one head and one tail, and 1/4 two tails.

Louisiana and Marshall still have a reasonable chance to get a 6th win, despite missing their chance to win a winnable game.

And ODU unexpectedly knocked off Georgia Southern.

The Sun Belt has a chance for 7 teams finishing 6-6.

24 teams are 5-6; and only 12 are 4-7. I sense that is a bit of an anomaly.

I think the motivational factor is at work. IMO these kids want to become bowl eligible and so will give it more effort if that is on the line this week.

Maybe I am wrong, but it often seems like with several weeks to go, various models predict a significant shortfall of eligible teams, but it always seems to tighten up considerably as the end of season approaches.

If I was JMU or JAX, I wouldn't be planning on a bowl just yet. We'll see.

Totally agree. We seem to have these discussions about a shortfall of bowl eligible teams annually, but then it never ends up being anywhere near the massive shortfall that’s projected. I do think the motivational factor comes into play.

(11-20-2023 10:42 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 09:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-19-2023 08:30 PM)jimrtex Wrote:  

(11-19-2023 02:07 AM)Crayton Wrote:  

(11-12-2023 01:18 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Still have 76.0 bowl eligible teams on average. Not sure the spread of that statistic, but >50% JMU/JSU get a bowl spot.

Wow. Jumped up to 78.4 this week. Must have had quite a few 6-loss teams winning. JMU/JSU take that to 80.4, so we are still likely to dip into the top 5-7 APR team or two.

The mean expectation based on ESPN FPI for every conference increased some. This may indicate a motivation factor, that ESPN's model does not account for. A team that was 4-6 had to win if they wanted to go to a bowl. Five and seven and the season is done. All that is left to do is check in your equipment and enter the portal. Injury rehab and what's that other thing? Oh yeah, class. it would not take much, perhaps a 5% bonus for a bowl-motivated team.

The Sun Belt had the biggest jump, with the mean expectation increasing by a bit more than one team. Arkansas State and South Alabama each had about 50% chance of getting the 6th win in their final two game, for a mean expectation of one team. But both won.

A better interpretation would be treat them like flipping two coins. 1/4 of the time you will get two heads, 1/2 of the time one head and one tail, and 1/4 two tails.

Louisiana and Marshall still have a reasonable chance to get a 6th win, despite missing their chance to win a winnable game.

And ODU unexpectedly knocked off Georgia Southern.

The Sun Belt has a chance for 7 teams finishing 6-6.

24 teams are 5-6; and only 12 are 4-7. I sense that is a bit of an anomaly.

I think the motivational factor is at work. IMO these kids want to become bowl eligible and so will give it more effort if that is on the line this week.

Maybe I am wrong, but it often seems like with several weeks to go, various models predict a significant shortfall of eligible teams, but it always seems to tighten up considerably as the end of season approaches.

If I was JMU or JAX, I wouldn't be planning on a bowl just yet. We'll see.

12 potentially eligible teams are listed as favorites, and 12 as underdogs.

They are listed here in order of the likelihood (according to point spreads) to win this week. Potential qualifier shown first, then their opponent, and the early point spread.

Favorites:
1. NIU, Kent State -17.5
2. UCF, Houston, -13.5
3. Louisiana, UL Monroe, -12.0
4. Utah State, New Mexico, -8.5
5. Illinois, Northwestern, -5.5
6. Colorado State, Hawaii, -5.5
7. Rice, FAU, -5.0
8. USF, Charlotte, -5.0
9. Syracuse, Wake Forest, -2.5
10.Virginia Tech, Virginia, -2.5
11.Marshall, Arkansas State, -2.5
12.Old Dominion, Georgia State, -2.0

Underdogs:
13. Nebraska, Iowa, +1.0
14. Minnesota, Wisconsin, +2.0
15. Florida, Florida State, +6.5
16. Eastern Michigan, Buffalo, +6.5
17. South Carolina, Clemson, +7.0
18. California, UCLA, +10.0
19. TCU, Oklahoma, +11.5
20. Mississippi St, Ole Miss, +11.5
21. Central Michigan, Toledo, +11.5
22. Washington St, Washington, +16.5
23. BYU, Oklahoma State, +17.5
24. Navy, SMU, +20.0

15 of these teams need to win to reach 82 total and close out JMU, Jax State, and 5-7 teams.

Assuming all double-digit favorites win and all double-digit dogs lose, here's a clipped version of the above list:

Favorites:
NIU, UCF, Louisiana are safely in.

The following games are will likely come down to turnovers and a few key plays:
1. Utah State, New Mexico, -8.5
2. Illinois, Northwestern, -5.5 ... Northwestern is a better team and should win this.
3. Colorado State, Hawaii, -5.5
4. Rice, FAU, -5.0
5. USF, Charlotte, -5.0
6. Syracuse, Wake Forest, -2.5
7. Virginia Tech, Virginia, -2.5 .... note: Virginia is on a roll if you want a free upset pick
8. Marshall, Arkansas State, -2.5 ... note: ditto for Arkansas State
9. Old Dominion, Georgia State, -2.0

Underdogs:
10. Nebraska, Iowa, +1.0 ... virtually zero chance Nebraska wins this. We (Spartans) beat them and that is all ye need know about the Huskers.
11. Minnesota, Wisconsin, +2.0 ... Minnesota is horrible. UW is just meh.
12. Florida, Florida State, +6.5 ... I could see it if UF's QB1 was healthy. He's not. The powers of the swamp environment are not enough here.
13. Eastern Michigan, Buffalo, +6.5
14. South Carolina, Clemson, +7.0 ... Boy, this is a total coin flip. Both teams have something to prove, but I will lean Clemson because I view the SEC as overrated this year (see: Missouri pushing Georgia and struggling out of conference in every non-con game).

(11-20-2023 01:10 PM)Sparty Baby 84 Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 10:42 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 09:58 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-19-2023 08:30 PM)jimrtex Wrote:  

(11-19-2023 02:07 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Wow. Jumped up to 78.4 this week. Must have had quite a few 6-loss teams winning. JMU/JSU take that to 80.4, so we are still likely to dip into the top 5-7 APR team or two.

The mean expectation based on ESPN FPI for every conference increased some. This may indicate a motivation factor, that ESPN's model does not account for. A team that was 4-6 had to win if they wanted to go to a bowl. Five and seven and the season is done. All that is left to do is check in your equipment and enter the portal. Injury rehab and what's that other thing? Oh yeah, class. it would not take much, perhaps a 5% bonus for a bowl-motivated team.

The Sun Belt had the biggest jump, with the mean expectation increasing by a bit more than one team. Arkansas State and South Alabama each had about 50% chance of getting the 6th win in their final two game, for a mean expectation of one team. But both won.

A better interpretation would be treat them like flipping two coins. 1/4 of the time you will get two heads, 1/2 of the time one head and one tail, and 1/4 two tails.

Louisiana and Marshall still have a reasonable chance to get a 6th win, despite missing their chance to win a winnable game.

And ODU unexpectedly knocked off Georgia Southern.

The Sun Belt has a chance for 7 teams finishing 6-6.

24 teams are 5-6; and only 12 are 4-7. I sense that is a bit of an anomaly.

I think the motivational factor is at work. IMO these kids want to become bowl eligible and so will give it more effort if that is on the line this week.

Maybe I am wrong, but it often seems like with several weeks to go, various models predict a significant shortfall of eligible teams, but it always seems to tighten up considerably as the end of season approaches.

If I was JMU or JAX, I wouldn't be planning on a bowl just yet. We'll see.

12 potentially eligible teams are listed as favorites, and 12 as underdogs.

They are listed here in order of the likelihood (according to point spreads) to win this week. Potential qualifier shown first, then their opponent, and the early point spread.

Favorites:
1. NIU, Kent State -17.5
2. UCF, Houston, -13.5
3. Louisiana, UL Monroe, -12.0
4. Utah State, New Mexico, -8.5
5. Illinois, Northwestern, -5.5
6. Colorado State, Hawaii, -5.5
7. Rice, FAU, -5.0
8. USF, Charlotte, -5.0
9. Syracuse, Wake Forest, -2.5
10.Virginia Tech, Virginia, -2.5
11.Marshall, Arkansas State, -2.5
12.Old Dominion, Georgia State, -2.0

Underdogs:
13. Nebraska, Iowa, +1.0
14. Minnesota, Wisconsin, +2.0
15. Florida, Florida State, +6.5
16. Eastern Michigan, Buffalo, +6.5
17. South Carolina, Clemson, +7.0
18. California, UCLA, +10.0
19. TCU, Oklahoma, +11.5
20. Mississippi St, Ole Miss, +11.5
21. Central Michigan, Toledo, +11.5
22. Washington St, Washington, +16.5
23. BYU, Oklahoma State, +17.5
24. Navy, SMU, +20.0

15 of these teams need to win to reach 82 total and close out JMU, Jax State, and 5-7 teams.

Assuming all double-digit favorites win and all double-digit dogs lose, here's a clipped version of the above list:

Favorites:
NIU, UCF, Louisiana are safely in.

The following games are will likely come down to turnovers and a few key plays:
1. Utah State, New Mexico, -8.5
2. Illinois, Northwestern, -5.5 ... Northwestern is a better team and should win this.
3. Colorado State, Hawaii, -5.5
4. Rice, FAU, -5.0
5. USF, Charlotte, -5.0
6. Syracuse, Wake Forest, -2.5
7. Virginia Tech, Virginia, -2.5 .... note: Virginia is on a roll if you want a free upset pick
8. Marshall, Arkansas State, -2.5 ... note: ditto for Arkansas State
9. Old Dominion, Georgia State, -2.0

Underdogs:
10. Nebraska, Iowa, +1.0 ... virtually zero chance Nebraska wins this. We (Spartans) beat them and that is all ye need know about the Huskers.
11. Minnesota, Wisconsin, +2.0 ... Minnesota is horrible. UW is just meh.
12. Florida, Florida State, +6.5 ... I could see it if UF's QB1 was healthy. He's not. The powers of the swamp environment are not enough here.
13. Eastern Michigan, Buffalo, +6.5
14. South Carolina, Clemson, +7.0 ... Boy, this is a total coin flip. Both teams have something to prove, but I will lean Clemson because I view the SEC as overrated this year (see: Missouri pushing Georgia and struggling out of conference in every non-con game).

I thought that line was wonky. It might change by game time if bettors agree.

Going by Spread, I see it like this, with 7+ pts being an expected W/L:

TO WIN BIG: NIU, @UCF, @Louisiana (3)
TO WIN: Utah State (1)

UNDER A TD DIFF FAVOR (4):
Colorado-St -6.0
@USF -6.0
@Illinois -5.5
@Rice -5.0

BASICALLY A TIE (6):
@Syracuse -3.0
VA-Tech -3.0
@Old-Dom -3.0
@Nebraska -2.0
@Minnesota +2.0
@Marshall -1.5

UNDER A TD DIFF UNFAVOR (2):
EMU -6
@Florida -6.5

TO LOSE: @South Carolina, California, TCU, @Miss-St, @CMU (5)
TO LOSE BIG: Washington-St, BYU (2)

-------

Going by this alone, it'd be 8 supposed to win +3 basically-a-tie games being half of those, thus, 11 more teams.

Navy would be included which they should lose of course, but it's their late game against Army next week that'll determine whether they can go or not.

MY THOUGHTS OUTSIDE SPREAD:
- Colorado State plays @Hawaii. Which is tough to win at, and it's Hawaii's senior day. Could easily see them losing.
- VA-Tech is playing @Virginia, and Virginia's been playing better than their record indicates, many close games against tough teams. Rivalry at home. VA-Tech not doing so hot.
- Nebraska took the minor spread over Iowa. I do believe Iowa's overrated due to their very poor O. Nebraska at home. Would not even be mildly surprised if Nebraska wins this.

I counted 67 teams bowl-eligible (not counting JaxSt or JMU). So that'd bring it to 78, possibly 79 if Navy beats Army the week after.

Of course, the teams fighting for bowls are going to put up a greater fight than normal. Of the teams to win/lose within less than a TD, there's 12 of them. 9 are at home for this last game, senior night. So my guess to Expect a few more than 78 and more like 81.

If 81, it'd be leaving 5 more teams. JaxSt, James Madison, and Army if they beat Navy (having beat 2 FCS teams). Then 3 more teams to bring in via APR.

If only one spot needs to be filled, who gets it, JMU or Jax State, and why?

(11-21-2023 08:28 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  If only one spot needs to be filled, who gets it, JMU or Jax State, and why?

Probably JMU due to a better record although a bowl in Alabama might want Jax State. No idea who exactly decides who gets the last spot in this scenario.

Unlikely Army gets an exception if they beat Navy. Especially since the NCAA was so adamant not giving JMU a waiver.

(11-21-2023 08:28 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  If only one spot needs to be filled, who gets it, JMU or Jax State, and why?

Wouldn't the school in its second transition year rank ahead of one in its first year?