I usually don't post this thread until 3 weeks left, but figured I'd make a note now before necroing it in the middle of next month.

In light of the exploration of the ACC having three 12-0 teams, I thought it'd be worthwhile identifying the actual tie-breaking procedures for the conference and how the #1 and #2 teams are determined.

The tie-breakers for 2 or more teams boil down to:
1. head-to-head sweep
2. win% among ALL shared conference opponents
2b. go 1-by-1 down conference standings
3. conference wins by conference opponents
4. third party rating system

Three 12-0 teams naturally precludes any sweep or anything other than 100% among shared opponents, so the first relevant tie-breaker will be #3, conference wins by conference opponents.

Florida State, North Carolina, and Louisville are the teams who could simultaneously go 12-0. They all share Duke, Miami, and Pitt on their conference schedules, but have the following 5 'other' opponents.

FSU: BC, Clem, VT, Syr, WF (14 wins)
UNC: Syr, UVA, GT, Clem, NCSU (12 wins)
Lou: GT, BC, NCSU, VT, UVA (9 wins)

I've taken the liberty of listing the total number of wins those 5 teams have. Now, only conference wins will be taken into account, but I figured non-conference gives a bit larger sample size this early in the season.

The two teams with the highest numbers would be your two teams in Charlotte. Technically, the #1 team would first be chosen and then the other two teams would start back over at tie-breaker #1, but it'd still resolve to the records of the above 5 teams.

In the simulations I've run, 1 12-0 Louisville is ranked approximately #7 in such a scenario. With THREE teams beating up on the other ACC members, little is left for the Cards to hang their hats on. Note also this has, like, a 1 in 1000 chance of occurring, so it is more an academic exercise at this point.

The Big 12 tie-breaker is slightly different because it first goes 1-by-1 through common opponents before weighing all common opponents at once. Not sure who wrote that rule, because if you go 1-by-1 through the standings and no tied team has a superior record then there is no way looking at ALL those common opponents at once should make a difference.

The only functional difference to the ACC occurs when teams have 2 losses, one is 4-1 against common opponents while the other is 3-2 but the "best" common opponent happens to be the 1 the 4-1 team lost to while the 3-2 team defeated them. So... hardly a difference to write home about (yet here I am).

(10-01-2023 05:17 PM)Crayton Wrote:  I usually don't post this thread until 3 weeks left, but figured I'd make a note now before necroing it in the middle of next month.

In light of the exploration of the ACC having three 12-0 teams, I thought it'd be worthwhile identifying the actual tie-breaking procedures for the conference and how the #1 and #2 teams are determined.

The tie-breakers for 2 or more teams boil down to:
1. head-to-head sweep
2. win% among ALL shared conference opponents
2b. go 1-by-1 down conference standings
3. conference wins by conference opponents
4. third party rating system

Three 12-0 teams naturally precludes any sweep or anything other than 100% among shared opponents, so the first relevant tie-breaker will be #3, conference wins by conference opponents.

Florida State, North Carolina, and Louisville are the teams who could simultaneously go 12-0. They all share Duke, Miami, and Pitt on their conference schedules, but have the following 5 'other' opponents.

FSU: BC, Clem, VT, Syr, WF (14 wins)
UNC: Syr, UVA, GT, Clem, NCSU (12 wins)
Lou: GT, BC, NCSU, VT, UVA (9 wins)

I've taken the liberty of listing the total number of wins those 5 teams have. Now, only conference wins will be taken into account, but I figured non-conference gives a bit larger sample size this early in the season.

The two teams with the highest numbers would be your two teams in Charlotte. Technically, the #1 team would first be chosen and then the other two teams would start back over at tie-breaker #1, but it'd still resolve to the records of the above 5 teams.

In the simulations I've run, 1 12-0 Louisville is ranked approximately #7 in such a scenario. With THREE teams beating up on the other ACC members, little is left for the Cards to hang their hats on. Note also this has, like, a 1 in 1000 chance of occurring, so it is more an academic exercise at this point.

The Big 12 tie-breaker is slightly different because it first goes 1-by-1 through common opponents before weighing all common opponents at once. Not sure who wrote that rule, because if you go 1-by-1 through the standings and no tied team has a superior record then there is no way looking at ALL those common opponents at once should make a difference. The only functional difference occurs when teams have 2 losses, one is 4-1 against common opponents while the other is 3-2 but the "best" common opponent happens to be the 1 the 4-1 team lost to while the 3-2 team defeated them. So... hardly a difference to write home about (yet here I am).

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't it only conference record that determines conference championship? Of course, that only makes it a greater possibility of a 3-way tie. Louisville could lose to Notre Dame and/or Kentucky, go 11-1 or 10-2 but 8-0 in conference play and finish in a three-way tie for first.

(10-01-2023 05:27 PM)tf8693 Wrote:  Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't it only conference record that determines conference championship? Of course, that only makes it a greater possibility of a 3-way tie. Louisville could lose to Notre Dame and/or Kentucky, go 11-1 or 10-2 but 8-0 in conference play and finish in a three-way tie for first.

Correct. The Notre Dame game may have playoff consequences (if Cards fans are dreaming that big) but it will not affect the ACC tie breaker UNLESS the win% of conference opponents is identical and the tie breaker goes to the third-party computer rating system.

This brings up the fact that Miami, Duke, and Virginia Tech are also still undefeated in conference play and do not play each other. But I feel that trio is much less likely to go 24-0 in conference play.

UNC is also undefeated. FSU plays Duke and UM, but not UNC or UL, I don’t think UL plays UNC neider, so....will be weird if FSU, UL and UNC are undefeated and tied.

When was the last time 3 teams have gone undefeated in Conference play? Has that ever happened in any top tier (D1, 1-A, FCS, 1-AA) conference?

I'm such a nerd that I also think it's a fun thought exercise, of course.

The ACC only has 14 football schools. Are you seriously telling me they couldn't come up with a schedule that guarantees only 2 undefeated teams?

How bad will it get under 17 teams?

I think worrying about a three way tie at 8-0 is getting way ahead of things.

(10-01-2023 06:26 PM)goofus Wrote:  The ACC only has 14 football schools. Are you seriously telling me they couldn't come up with a schedule that guarantees only 2 undefeated teams?

How bad will it get under 17 teams?

It could have been done AND kept the 3 permanent rivals. It is a rather ornate schedule rotation behind the scenes, but they'd have played all non-rivals once at home, once on the road in a 4-year rotation.

Not happening with 17 teams. At this point, is having all conference teams play 8 games worth much? Let Clemson and FSU schedule 6 conference games and play an extra SEC opponent if that makes them happy. We'll be using crazy tie-breakers anyway.

Side note: the 16-team SEC too can do 3+6/6 or 1+7/7 while avoiding the possibility of 3 undefeated teams.

(10-01-2023 06:29 PM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  I think worrying about a three way tie at 8-0 is getting way ahead of things.

True enough. The bigger impact will be when two 7-1 teams tie for #2 and the 9-3 team ranked #20 replaces the 11-1 team ranked #5. I'm seeing a bit of that in my Big 12 simulations. With a 12-team playoff it may matter less.

(10-01-2023 09:04 PM)Crayton Wrote:  

(10-01-2023 06:26 PM)goofus Wrote:  The ACC only has 14 football schools. Are you seriously telling me they couldn't come up with a schedule that guarantees only 2 undefeated teams?

How bad will it get under 17 teams?

It could have been done AND kept the 3 permanent rivals. It is a rather ornate schedule rotation behind the scenes, but they'd have played all non-rivals once at home, once on the road in a 4-year rotation.

Not happening with 17 teams. At this point, is having all conference teams play 8 games worth much? Let Clemson and FSU schedule 6 conference games and play an extra SEC opponent if that makes them happy. We'll be using crazy tie-breakers anyway.

Side note: the 16-team SEC too can do 3+6/6 or 1+7/7 while avoiding the possibility of 3 undefeated teams.

(10-01-2023 06:29 PM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  I think worrying about a three way tie at 8-0 is getting way ahead of things.

True enough. The bigger impact will be when two 7-1 teams tie for #2 and the 9-3 team ranked #20 replaces the 11-1 team ranked #5. I'm seeing a bit of that in my Big 12 simulations. With a 12-team playoff it may matter less.

There are too many major rivalries for a 1+7/7 format. We might do 3+6/6, or we might do a flex rivalry schedule like the B1G.

(10-01-2023 06:21 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  When was the last time 3 teams have gone undefeated in Conference play? Has that ever happened in any top tier (D1, 1-A, FCS, 1-AA) conference?

I'm such a nerd that I also think it's a fun thought exercise, of course.

The first thing I think of is the first year of Big East football in 1991 when they averaged only 3 conference games apiece.

A Wikipedia check reveals in 1952 three SEC teams went undefeated.

Georgia 7-0
Tennessee 5-0-1
Ole Miss 4-0-2

Ya, there were ties back then and uneven conference games. Notably Ole Miss and Tennessee did not play (and tie) each other that year.

I think the Big East declared a “champion” the first year based on overall record. My thought at the time was “what a joke”.

No more 3-way tie atop the ACC at 12-0.

The SEC has an interesting three-way possibility for the SEC West. If Ole Miss, Alabama, and LSU all finish 7-1, it goes to record of their East opponents:

Ole Miss: Vanderbilt, Georgia
Alabama: Tennessee, Kentucky
LSU: Missouri, Florida

Not sure who has the advantage here. If all three sets of teams sum to the SAME conference record, the tie-breaker goes to "coin-flip" which I suppose is an anachronistic phrase because I have yet to find a 3-sided coin.

Yes, these should be the same tie-breakers for Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan.

Also, fun fact, Florida controls its own SEC East destiny (along with Missouri and, of course, Georgia). Tennessee is in the mix too have yet to play Georgia or Missouri, though of course the Vols would need the Gators to drop one more game.

Who controls their own destiny? It is a little fuzzier this year without a round-robin. Many conferences will have to use strength of record tie-breakers. But, here are the teams in complete control of their own destiny:

ACC: 7-0 Florida State
Big 12: 7-0 Oklahoma, 4-3 Iowa State
Pac-12: 7-0 Washington, 6-1 Oregon
SEC: 7-0 Georgia, 7-1 Missouri, 7-1 Alabama, 5-2 Florida
Big Ten: 8-0 Michigan, 7-0 Ohio State, 5-2 Wisconsin, 4-3 Minnesota
AAC: 6-1 Tulane, 5-2 SMU, 4-3 UTSA, 4-3 Rice
MW: 7-0 Air Force, 6-1 UNLV, 5-2 Wyoming, 3-4 Boise St
CUSA: 7-0 Liberty, 4-3 WKU
Belt: 6-1 GaSt, 5-2 Troy, 5-2 GaSo, 5-2 Texas St, 4-3 Old Dom, 4-3 South Alabama
MAC: 7-1 Toledo, 6-2 Ohio, 6-2 Miami(OH), 3-5 Buffalo

May look at tie-breakers next.

In the ACC, there are 4 potential ties at 7-1 for first and/or second place that are not decided by simple head-to-head. The text is not explicit on what happens when 2 teams in a 3-team tie-breaker have a superior score (say, better win-percentage among common opponents). I assume it goes to a 2-way tie-breaker. I further assume that any 2-way sub-tie for #1 acts like a regular tie for #1: sending both teams to Charlotte.

Tie A: Virginia Tech and Duke win out to go 7-1
If Florida State goes 7-1 too, they still get the #1 seed because they swept VT and Duke. #2 is determined by comparing the 2 unique opponents of VT and Duke. Duke plays Clemson and North Carolina (currently 5-4) while Virginia Tech plays Syracuse and Boston College (currently 2-5). If the records end up even, a computer picks #2.

Tie B: Louisville and North Carolina tie at 7-1 for 2nd place
The first tie breaker is who beat the better team: North Carolina over Pitt or Louisville over Virginia. If Virginia and Pittsburgh are tied in the standings, the tie-breaker goes to conference strength of schedule. Louisville played BC and VT (currently 4-3) while North Carolina played Clemson and Syracuse (currently 2-6). If these pairs of teams have the same combined record it goes to a third party computer. If Florida State is also 7-1, see Tie D.

Tie C: VT, FSU, and UNC all finish at 7-1 atop the ACC
If FSU's loss is to Pitt, then UNC and VT go to Charlotte both going 2-0 against shared opponents (Pitt and Syracuse). If FSU's loss is to Wake or Miami, the sum of the records of the 6 uncommon opponents are compared. The team with the strongest set of 6 is given the #1 spot. If no team has a stronger set of 6, a third-party computer picks the #1 team.

If FSU is given the #1 spot, Virginia Tech will take #2, because they beat Virginia and UNC didn't.
If UNC is given the #1 spot, FSU will take #2, because FSU beat VT head-to-head
If VT is given the #1 spot, UNC will get the #2 spot if FSU's loss was to Miami. If FSU's loss was to Wake, the 3 uncommon opponents between FSU and UNC will be used to determine #2

Tie D: Florida State, Louisville, and North Carolina all tie at 7-1 atop the ACC.
First, if Florida State's loss comes to Wake Forest, Florida State and UNC go to Charlotte because Louisville is the only team with a loss among shared opponents: Miami, Pitt, and Duke. If Florida State loses to Miami or Pitt, UNC takes #1 as the only tied team to go 3-0 against the shared opponents. If Florida State's loss is to Miami then the better win (Florida State over Pittsburgh or Louisville over Miami) determines #2.

If Florida State's loss is to Pittsburgh or if Miami and Pittsburgh finish with the same conference record, we compare the records of the 3 uncommon opponents between Florida State and Louisville. Florida State played Clemson, Syracuse, and Wake Forest (3-9 currently) while Louisville played Georgia Tech, Virginia, and NC State (4-6 currently). A tie there sends it to the computers.

Why would a conference want to avoid multiple undefeated teams in the Playoff era. You are forcing cannibalism when historically the committee has rewarded undefeated seasons.

I think thinks are about to get crazy in the ACC. I think Duke and Lville both take another loss. Then we will get to tiebreaker palooza with so many 2 loss in conference teams

If Penn State beats Michigan, there is the chance it comes down to all three of PSU, UM, and OSU finishing 11-1 and the divisional championship coming down to best record in the Big Ten West.

Penn State played Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois
Michigan played Minnesota, Nebraska, Purdue
Ohio State played Minnesota, Wisconsin, Purdue

Penn State's rooting for Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois
Michigan's rooting for Nebraska
Ohio State's rooting for Wisconsin
Minnesota and Purdue are on both Michigan's and Ohio State's schedule so Penn State wants both of them to lose since it would hurt both Michigan and Ohio State.

I would do home and away games but Iowa lost at home to Minnesota and won at Wisconsin.

Still a chance for a 3-way tie in the SEC West as well, broken by record of the East teams:

Ole Miss: Georgia & Vandy (5-6)
LSU: Florida & Missouri (6-3)
Alabama: Tennessee & Kentucky (5-6)

Lots of Football out East to be played but the West could come down to Tennessee-Vanderbilt on Thanksgiving Weekend.

(10-24-2023 05:27 AM)LeeNobody Wrote:  I think thinks are about to get crazy in the ACC. I think Duke and Lville both take another loss. Then we will get to tiebreaker palooza with so many 2 loss in conference teams

You were right. Duke and UNC take a loss this weekend and while VT and Louisville still have a single conference loss they play each other next week and we might indeed be headed to a 6-2 tie-breaker palooza.

No more 7-1 tie-breakers needed, but I think I’ll wait a week (or two, or three) before breaking down the 6-2 tie breakers.

MAC championship game will most likely be a rematch of the Toledo-Miami game from last week unless one of them collapses.

In the Big 12, the five 4-1 teams all control their destinies as there is no mathematical way more than 2 teams finish 8-1. Oklahoma and OK State play this weekend while Kansas State, Texas, and Iowa State play 3 round-robin games over the next 4 weeks.