OK State, Oklahoma, and Kansas State are all 6-2 and this week the Big 12 clarified that if all three are tied for second place at 7-2, OK State would advance to the CCG in Arlington by virtue of their head-to-head sweep. There are other, more exciting tie-breakers, including if Texas loses this week to Texas Tech OR a 4-, 5-, or 6-way tie at 6-3 for second. And Kansas State benefits from many of them. Texas has clinched.

Tie For First and Second (KU+ISU only consequential common opponents)
UT, KSU[, OU][, OSU] (UT vs. KSU, did not lose to KU+ISU)
UT, OU, OSU, KU>UC (UT vs. OSU, UT did not lose to KU+ISU, then OSU>OU)
UT, OU, OSU, KU<UC (UT vs. OU, did not lose to ISU)
Tie For Just Second
OSU[, OU][, KSU] (OSU, h2h sweep)
OU, KSU (OU, defeated UT, highest ranked common opponent)
Tie For Second at 6-3!
OU, KSU, OSU, ISU[, TTU] (KSU>OSU[+TTU], other two lost to KU)
OU, KSU, OSU, ISU, WVU[, TTU] (conference strength of record, not calculating it tonight)

In the Pac-12, Washington has clinched. Oregon is the likely #2.

If Oregon loses to Oregon State and Arizona defeats Arizona State, both would be 7-2 with the tie-breaker going 1-by-1 down the conference standings for records against common opponents. Both teams played (and one lost to) Oregon State and USC. Oregon State is higher in the standings than USC and so would be tested first. Arizona defeated Oregon State while Oregon lost to them; Arizona wins the tie. Arizona lost 24-31 to Washington earlier this season.

In the Sun Belt, Troy clinched the West a week ago. Coastal Carolina can clinch the East next week with EITHER a win over JMU OR an App State loss to Georgia Southern. If neither of those happen, App State will rep the East.

Mountain West. If UNLV wins, they will host the winner of the AFA/Boise game.

If UNLV loses, there'd be a 3-way tie with UNLV, SJSU, and the AFA/Boise winner. No team has a clean sweep, so it'd either go to computer ranking or overall record. Either "should" favor UNLV staying in the CCG; Boise has h2h over SJSU for the #2 spot, and Air Force has better metrics, so it looks like it doesn't matter if UNLV wins or loses. UNLV will play the AFA/Boise winner and SJSU can earn a 3-way tie.

Now, if Air Force wins and UNLV loses, both teams would be 9-3 and Air Force 'may' net the best computer ranking. #2 would then go to San Jose State who just secured h2h over UNLV. With both teams 8-2, UNLV has the edge by about 7 positions in the 4 computers (though 1 computer does have AFA above UNLV).

(11-19-2023 05:33 AM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  

Very nice! Still want to know who wins the 6-3 ties in the Big 12 that include WVU.

I failed to consider Old Dominion. I think they are out, but they can reverse a tie between App State and Coastal at 5-3. Coastal has head-to-head over App, but if ODU is also tied at 5-3 the teams are all 1-1 against each other and 3-3 in division; tie-breaker goes 1-by-1 through division, giving App the crown because of their victory over #1 JMU.

Hmm, not exactly sure how the Dukes factor into tie-breakers. I assume they go through tie-breakers the same as any team but if they are #1, the #2 team goes to the CCG. If Coastal and App win, Coastal sweeps the 3-way tie at 6-2 with App and JMU.

The Big 12's tiebreakers are so confusing even they can't figure it out!

https://big12sports.com/news/2023/11/19/...pdate.aspx

"If Texas Tech wins on Friday, the following scenarios apply surrounding Big 12 matchups on Saturday, November 25:
No team can clinch a bid to the Championship until Saturday.

Texas can still clinch a berth to the Championship if two of the three two-loss teams (Kansas State / Oklahoma / Oklahoma State) LOSE on Friday and / or Saturday. Texas and the remaining winning team of those three will qualify for the Championship.

If Texas loses on Friday, and two or three two-loss teams WIN amongst Kansas State / Oklahoma / Oklahoma State on Friday and / or Saturday, there will be three or four teams tied for both Championship berths. Multiple scenarios exist in this circumstance contingent on which teams remain in the tiebreaker pool."

(11-20-2023 06:25 AM)schmolik Wrote:  The Big 12's tiebreakers are so confusing even they can't figure it out!

https://big12sports.com/news/2023/11/19/...pdate.aspx

"If Texas Tech wins on Friday, the following scenarios apply surrounding Big 12 matchups on Saturday, November 25:
No team can clinch a bid to the Championship until Saturday.

Texas can still clinch a berth to the Championship if two of the three two-loss teams (Kansas State / Oklahoma / Oklahoma State) LOSE on Friday and / or Saturday. Texas and the remaining winning team of those three will qualify for the Championship.

If Texas loses on Friday, and two or three two-loss teams WIN amongst Kansas State / Oklahoma / Oklahoma State on Friday and / or Saturday, there will be three or four teams tied for both Championship berths. Multiple scenarios exist in this circumstance contingent on which teams remain in the tiebreaker pool."

LOL. Ya, I read that article wondering if I missed something where Texas had not yet clinched. But the article just rambles to “multiple tie breakers exist.” Admittedly my sim applies a generic tiebreaker to each conference (h2h sweep followed by strength of conference record), but there is certainly an opportunity to have a computer break down the 2^7 (128) possibilities this week to see teams’ ACTUAL odds. If I was FBS czar, I’d (ignoring other changes) institute a uniform tie breaking policy among all conferences.

(11-19-2023 09:04 AM)Crayton Wrote:  

(11-19-2023 05:33 AM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  

Very nice! Still want to know who wins the 6-3 ties in the Big 12 that include WVU.

I failed to consider Old Dominion. I think they are out, but they can reverse a tie between App State and Coastal at 5-3. Coastal has head-to-head over App, but if ODU is also tied at 5-3 the teams are all 1-1 against each other and 3-3 in division; tie-breaker goes 1-by-1 through division, giving App the crown because of their victory over #1 JMU.

Hmm, not exactly sure how the Dukes factor into tie-breakers. I assume they go through tie-breakers the same as any team but if they are #1, the #2 team goes to the CCG. If Coastal and App win, Coastal sweeps the 3-way tie at 6-2 with App and JMU.

Coastal Carolina has beaten both Old Dominion and Appalachian St., so ODU's best is a 3 way tie where they lose the tiebreak. ODU is out.

KSU eliminated with UT’s win last night. Texas-OU CCG unless OK State wins today and replaces the Sooners.

(11-25-2023 08:18 AM)Crayton Wrote:  KSU eliminated with UT’s win last night. Texas-OU CCG unless OK State wins today and replaces the Sooners.

According to Circa Sports Oklahoma State was a 16 point favorite over BYU.

Update:

Secured -

Both Spots

ACC: Florida St vs Louisville
CUSA: Liberty vs New Mexico St
MAC: Miami (OH) vs Toledo
PAC: Oregon vs Washington
SEC: Alabama vs Georgia

One Spot

AAC: Tulane vs either SMU or UTSA
> My guess: SMU
B1G: Iowa vs either Michigan or Ohio St
> My guess: Ohio St
SBC: Troy vs either Appalachian St or Coastal Carolina
> My guess: Appalachian St
XII: Texas vs either Oklahoma or Oklahoma St
> My guess: Oklahoma St

Neither Spot
MWC: 2 of - Boise St, San Jose St, UNLV
> My guess: Boise St vs UNLV

Flow Down to Champions Guesses
AAC: Tulane
ACC: Louisville
B1G: Ohio St
CUSA: Liberty
MAC: Toledo
MWC: Boise St
PAC: Oregon
SBC: Appalachian St
SEC: Alabama
XII: Texas

Flow Down to NY6 Guesses
Rose Bowl: #1 Ohio St vs #4 Alabama
Sugar Bowl: #2 Texas vs #3 Oregon
Cotton Bowl: Mississippi vs Tulane
Fiesta Bowl: Michigan vs Washington
Orange Bowl: Louisville vs Missouri
Peach Bowl: Florida St vs Georgia

(11-25-2023 10:08 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  Flow Down to NY6 Guesses
Rose Bowl: #1 Ohio St vs #4 Alabama
Sugar Bowl: #2 Texas vs #3 Oregon
Cotton Bowl: Mississippi vs Tulane
Fiesta Bowl: Michigan vs Washington
Orange Bowl: Louisville vs Missouri
Peach Bowl: Florida St vs Georgia

The highest rated of the B1G and SEC is contractually committed to the Orange Bowl. In your scenario, that is likely to be Georgia (or if Georgia beats Alabama, the loser of OSU/Michigan). Also, I would be very surprised if Ole Miss jumped Penn State in the rankings. Penn State is currently at #11 and easily won yesterday.

(11-25-2023 10:52 AM)MadisonHawk Wrote:  

(11-25-2023 10:08 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  Flow Down to NY6 Guesses
Rose Bowl: #1 Ohio St vs #4 Alabama
Sugar Bowl: #2 Texas vs #3 Oregon
Cotton Bowl: Mississippi vs Tulane
Fiesta Bowl: Michigan vs Washington
Orange Bowl: Louisville vs Missouri
Peach Bowl: Florida St vs Georgia

The highest rated of the B1G and SEC is contractually committed to the Orange Bowl. In your scenario, that is likely to be Georgia (or if Georgia beats Alabama, the loser of OSU/Michigan). Also, I would be very surprised if Ole Miss jumped Penn State in the rankings. Penn State is currently at #11 and easily won yesterday.

True - could be Penn St. Also, I’m surprised I wasn’t aware of the “highest ranked” rule with the Orange Bowl.

Rose Bowl: #1 Ohio St vs #4 Alabama
Sugar Bowl: #2 Texas vs #3 Oregon
Cotton Bowl: Penn St vs Tulane
Fiesta Bowl: Michigan vs Washington
Orange Bowl: Georgia vs Louisville
Peach Bowl: Florida St vs Missouri

(11-25-2023 11:23 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(11-25-2023 10:52 AM)MadisonHawk Wrote:  

(11-25-2023 10:08 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  Flow Down to NY6 Guesses
Rose Bowl: #1 Ohio St vs #4 Alabama
Sugar Bowl: #2 Texas vs #3 Oregon
Cotton Bowl: Mississippi vs Tulane
Fiesta Bowl: Michigan vs Washington
Orange Bowl: Louisville vs Missouri
Peach Bowl: Florida St vs Georgia

The highest rated of the B1G and SEC is contractually committed to the Orange Bowl. In your scenario, that is likely to be Georgia (or if Georgia beats Alabama, the loser of OSU/Michigan). Also, I would be very surprised if Ole Miss jumped Penn State in the rankings. Penn State is currently at #11 and easily won yesterday.

True - could be Penn St. Also, I’m surprised I wasn’t aware of the “highest ranked” rule with the Orange Bowl.

Rose Bowl: #1 Ohio St vs #4 Alabama
Sugar Bowl: #2 Texas vs #3 Oregon
Cotton Bowl: Penn St vs Tulane
Fiesta Bowl: Michigan vs Washington
Orange Bowl: Georgia vs Louisville
Peach Bowl: Florida St vs Missouri

And I think it is specifically a non-Champion. So if Alabama goes 12-1 and finishes #5, they will not be Orange eligible because they are the SEC Champ. Not sure if that will really be enforced.